Scott Baker Signed Through 2012 With Option for 2013
by Jesse on Mar 8, 2009 6:41 PM EDT
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PrintThis has already been mentioned on the site this afternoon. Well done to everyone who's been so on the ball!
When we discussed this in early February, I anticipated the Twins signing Scott Baker to a three-year contract. Pitchers in general are larger health risks than position players, meaning their long-term contracts carry more financial risk. So when a mid-market team like the Minnesota Twins start talking about signing one of their young starters to a multi-year deal, was I about to suspect a possible five year deal? No. No, I was not. In fact, this is exactly what I expected:
2009: $1,250,000
2010: $2,000,000
2011: $2,900,000
As it turns out, the Twins did something just a bit more reasonable than what I anticipated they'd do, and bought out Baker for 2009 as well as his arbitration years of 2010 - 2012. On top of that, they added an option for 2013 at what should be a very fair price.
This summer will be Baker's age-27 campaign. For his service with the Twins to this point, he hasn't been rewarded with the peanuts my wannabe GM self would have offered. No, the Twins signed Scott to a four-year, $15.25 million dollar deal. With the 2013 option worth $9.25 big ones, that's a total of $24.5 million. Let's compare that to a pair of deals that belong to a couple of other young starters, Paul Maholm of the Pirates and James Shields of the Rays.
|
Year |
Scott Baker |
Paul Maholm |
James Shields |
|
2009 |
$750, 000 |
$3,500,000 |
$1,500,000 |
|
2010 |
$3,000,000 |
$4,500,000 |
$2,500,000 |
|
2011 |
$5,000,000 |
$5,750,000 |
$4,250,000 |
|
2012 |
$6,500,000 |
$9,750,000* |
$7,000,000* |
|
2013 |
$9,250,000* |
-- |
$9,000,000* |
|
2014 |
-- |
-- |
$12,000,000* |
* = Denotes Option Year
Maholm, 27 like Baker this year, is a year in front of Scott in terms of service time. Comparing what Pittsburgh gave him to what Minnesota gave Baker, the difference over each player's arbitration years is only $750,000. Shields, also 27, is making a bit less over his three arbitration years but also has three years of options worth $28 million dollars.
Year-to-year in comparison to his peers, this is a good deal for Baker and for the Twins. Financially as a whole, this is a deal with a lot of inherent risk, but multi-year contracts almost always carry that burden. The hope, as always, is that the security and investment pays off.
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I think this is a well-rounded, good deal....
I think young pitchers like this typically earn their big payday in the early years. You’ll get $4-$5million worth of pitching 09-11, maybe $7million worth of pitching from there on out. The $9million in 13 might be a little much for the production he’ll give you but well worth it based on what he gave you the 4 previous years.
Remember...
that the first year of Baker’s deal is a pre-arbitration season whereas the others are at least in their first arbitration-eligible season.
Yeah
I think this works for both sides. Baker starts earning some real money, and the Twins potentially get him at a bargain price down the road. It reminds me a lot of the Kubel signing from this off-season.
Now, Mauer…
by Twins Territory on Mar 8, 2009 7:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I love this deal for the Twins. Baker’s a legitimate #2 or #3; a legitimate short-series playoff starter. Check this out. That’s Baker’s CHONE projection page. At the bottom it includes a dollar value should Baker perform as projected, and it’s up around $12-$13 million per year. (And it stays that way for the extended future, although even the author of this system cautions against reading too much into that.)
Of course there’s injury risk, but even there I like Baker’s chances. He really wasn’t pushed until he was past the so-called “injury nexus” (age 24 or 25). And he isn’t a max effort type pitcher, either. None of this matters should something go POP on a pitch, of course. But even worst case scenario, it’s a contract that the team should still be able to work around. (They may even have it insured; I don’t know.)
Thumbs up. This looks like a solid contract at a key position. It’s like an anti-Cuddy contract.
reminds me of the 08 wainwright deal
2008/0.50 mil…..2009/2.60…..2010/4.65…..2011/6.50…..2012/9.00club…..2013/12.00club…..wainwright
2009/0.75 mil…..2010/3.00…..2011/5.00…..2012/6.50…..2013/9.25club…..baker
service yrs at time of signing
2.007……wainwright
2.128……baker
by ball in play on Mar 8, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
It's nice
To see the Twins at least trying to be proactive. Now, we have to figure out when the right time to do the same with Slowey and Liriano is so we can keep that core together.
Visit my D2 Baseball Blog - Northern Sun Baseball
Forget slowey
Slowey is too far away from FA. Make him prove himself and not get hurt for another two years. I actually think that they went a bit early with Baker. If they were going to do this, they should have had another option year or two at the end. They could be at a relatively friendly salary, but should have $0 buyout, or at least cheap.
Liriano would be next
I doubt they try to sign him until after the season, though. Crain is another candidate for a long-term deal if he can return to form from his injury. Slowey might be a candidate after this season. But I say they give him another year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Lester for $30/5+$13 option
When you compare this to the Lester deal, it looks pretty good. The Red Sox are basically paying twice as much for Lester as the Twins are for Baker. Now, I’d rather have Lester. But not twice as badly. But the Twins should also seriously consider locking Liriano up now. If he puts up a Lester-like year in 2009 (which I am predicting), he could cost Lester-like dollars after the season.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I agree they should lock Liriano up but...
Dont you think Liriano (moreso his agent) would want to wait, 1. roll the dice on an outstanding season to drive up the arbitration price and 2. wait until the economy doesnt serve as an excuse to lowball contracts? Baker deal is good for Baker, but I’d say Liriano might want to use offers from other teams (once the economy bounces back in the next couple of years) to drive up the price?
by oneseasoncom on Mar 10, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep
If I’m Liriano or his agent, I roll the dice on a big 2009 to drive up the price. Yes, it could backfire if Liriano gets injured, but I’d probably roll the dice.
That said, I’d look to lock him up if I’m the Twins, for exactly the same reason.
by Adam Peterson on Mar 10, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
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