Twins Hacking?

by Jesse on Apr 14, 2009 4:21 PM EDT in News

Or is it just the sample size?

As of today, the Twins are averaging eight runs per win, and just 1.6 runs per loss. Some of this will be sample size, so I won't pretend that the future will be just as horrendous as what we've seen this offense do so far, but what we have seen over the season's first eight games is a team that can't get its act together consistently. If this were June and we were having this conversation, we'd be talking about a marginal team in the best case scenario. Luckily it's only April 14.

But still, this is what we've seen. A lot of guys are pressing, or aren't sure of the strike zone, or are fooled by the pitcher or were expecting a different pitch or were protecting the plate or were blinded by the light because they wear their sunglasses at night (see what I did there?), or something, but about half of our lineup would strike out in a five-pitch at-bat where four of the offerings were off the plate.

Name	OZ%
Delmon Young	57.1
Jose Morales	44.0
Alexi Casilla	36.1
Michael Cuddyer	33.9
Justin Morneau	32.1
Joe Crede	28.8
Carlos Gomez	27.0
League Average, 2008	25.4
Mike Redmond	21.4
Jason Kubel	17.1
Nick Punto	15.2
Denard Span	7.4

You could throw Delmon Young six consecutive sliders outside, and he'd swing at at least four of them.

Some of these guys have built-in excuses. Jose Morales is basically a rookie. Alexi Casilla doesn't have a lot of experience. Justin Morneau always swings at that many pitches. Carlos Gomez is actually swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone than last year, so this is an improvement.

How good does this make Denard Span look? And Jason Kubel? I get chills at when I imagine them keeping this pace up all season long.

There are enough culprits and scapegoats of the team's first week fortunes that it seems a little harsh to criticise just the offense at this juncutre, especially when the fielding and pitching has been like it's been, but it is what it is. Maybe nobody's used to what a strike zone is supposed to look like after a long winter, or maybe not having Joe Mauer in the lineup somehow discourages some of them from taking pitches. But even Mauer is struggling; swinging at div/0 of balls outside the strikezone is higher than his career average.

Minnesota isn't an organization that teaches patience to their hitters, and this is something they've been criticised by the blogosphere for many times over the last few years. This is just one more example.

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Comments

Delmon Young

Is it too late to ship Delmon back to the Rays? Maybe we can get one of those cool Devil Rays they have in that tank in the outfield. If they are going to play hardball maybe we can at least get them the go halvsies on a Greyhound ticket back to St. Petersburg.

Viva Casey Litzinger

by Corey Koskie on Apr 14, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

I'm still more than happy to give

Delmon time to grow into himself, but he’s definitely off to a slow start. But hey, at least he’s got that first homer out of the way!

by Jesse on Apr 14, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Second!

See what I did there? I am hacking, just like our team.

by montanatwinsfan on Apr 14, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions

Sharp one!

by Jesse on Apr 14, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Let us pray

Dear Baby Joe Jebus, with your so cool sideburns and your batting titles, not that adult looking hippie Jebus but clean shavin’ Joe Jebus, please forgive us for whatever it is we have done in Twins Territory and return to us and show us how to be a professional hitters who takes many pitches, and sometimes grounds into double plays or just hits another single when we need an extra base hit but always has a beautiful swing.

Come back baby Joe Jebus and maybe we will get to play game 163 again or make the post season.

by caluofmn on Apr 14, 2009 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

hahaha...

…“baby joe jebus”.

by Jesse on Apr 14, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Hahaha

and show us how to be a professional hitters who takes many pitches, and sometimes grounds into double plays or just hits another single when we need an extra base hit but always has a beautiful swing.

by montanatwinsfan on Apr 14, 2009 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

Delmon and Sapn

It’s almost an inverse relationship between spring training and the regular season. Delmon was hitting the snot out of the ball in the spring. Now he can’t buy a hit. He’s having a tough time making contact. Span is the opposite. Maybe it’s just a streak thing. Delmon got his hot streak out of the way in the spring, whereas Span got his cold streak out of the way.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 14, 2009 6:32 PM EDT reply actions

Take it for what it’s worth, but during the second Seattle game after Span hit one of those dome balls right off the front of the plate Bert mentioned him practicing that in spring training,
Might be that Span was actually concentrating on improving part of his game at the expense of numbers when they don’t count, while Delmon was “see ball, hit ball” when pitchers are just trying to put the ball where they want it, trying to hit gloves more than miss bats.

by IronMonkee on Apr 15, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

I noticed that Span was working on hitting choppers to the left side because, in the Dome, it’s a high percentage play for a fast runner, a la Luis Castillo.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Am I daft?

“Criticise” twice? Jesse, are you British?

by Evan Nelson on Apr 14, 2009 6:39 PM EDT reply actions

D'oh!!!

It looks like my time here is catching up with me…

by Jesse on Apr 15, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I tried to poke fun of that on FB

Words like colour, judgement, criticise, etc.

BTW, is it true about the term Biggie? I heard somewhere that biggie is a Cockney term for poo. So when Wendy’s introduced Biggie Fries, Biggie Drinks, etc. they didn’t go over very well in England.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

It's strange,

because it’s slowely crept up on me. The superfluous u’s are an easy one to keep out, but after reading things a certain way so many times it just starts to make sense. On the other hand, when I’m at work I still spell words like “recognize” with a ‘z’ in emails. I’m a bit muddled.

As for the Cockney slang, I’m not sure about the term “biggie”…I’m still getting used to the slang thing.

Anyway, it’s been a bubble bath mate…tomorrow night I’m off to the Ringo, so for now it’s up the apple and pears to scratch yer head.

I cheated on almost all of that. Seriously, who makes this stuff up???

by Jesse on Apr 15, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

In research, we always say we are safe..

…to measure significance whenever we obtain a sample of 30 or more, so I would imagine that a sample of 30 ABs would be sufficient to predict a trend or at least explain the inept production to this point. If the variables remain constant (or relatively so), we should be able to produce a trend line. With that said, in consideration of something like baseball, variables are extremely difficult to manage. For example, if a player happens to start only every 3 or 4 days, he may not develop a hitter’s eye, but if he had been allowed to play daily, he would have. Or if a player bats fifth, he may feel pressed to drive in runs and consequently wave at pitches out of the strike zone, whereas if he hits eighth, he feels much less pressure, etc, etc.

Nevertheless, I always feel that statistics (when used in a proper manner) are very revealing, so I want to say thanks so much for this post!!!!!!

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Apr 15, 2009 4:28 AM EDT reply actions

Good stuff

These numbers certainly seem to confirm that we are pressing early on. I’d be interested in a few additional data points if it’s possible:

1. How do the numbers for each player compare to their 2008 totals? According to fangraphs (which where I’m guessing you got the data), Delmon’s OZ% was 40% and Gomez was at 37%…indicating possible improvement from Carlos and decline from Delmon…

2. How does the overall league OZ% compare to 2008 (25.4%)? Are teams generally chasing more balls early on in 2009?

I’m glad to see Denard Span’s very low 7.4%. That’s what I want to see from a leadoff hitter!

FWIW, as a team, we’re at 28.3%, good for 24th in MLB and 10th in the AL. Tampa Bay (18.9%) is the best, Houston (30.6%) the worst in MLB.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions

I am new to reading this blog, but can I get a quick explanation of OZ%?

Your comment “about half of our lineup would strike out in a five-pitch at-bat where four of the offerings were off the plate” is confusing me, unless you are just exaggerating, which then I would understand…

by mls4 on Apr 15, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

Hi, welcome!

OZ% is a way of saying “outside the zone”, or outside the strike zone. That’s what this post is about—how many pitches the Twins are swinging at outside of the strike zone. If you go to www.fangraphs.com and search for a player, one of the stats they follow is this one.

Thanks for not being afraid to ask the question. I’d always prefer understanding!

by Jesse on Apr 15, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

what?

They started April 6. Its been nine days, not including today, since they’ve started playing this season. The season itself has barely begun! Give them a break!

by tic-tac on Apr 15, 2009 8:24 PM EDT reply actions