Perkins, Glen Perkins.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2009 3:02 AM EDT

Glen Perkins? Seriously? The guy who I thought was a 3-run home run machine waiting to happen? YOUR ERA is under 2 this year? You just went 8 against the hot hitting Jays, only giving up 2?

What is going on. Really.

Anyways, I'll take it. The Twins offense was cold again. The Twins gave away chances all night, capped by an atrocious base-loaded no-outs situation in the sixth. Big 5-6 hitters coming up? No runs. Grr.

Well guess what, Justin Morneau is just so sad his friend Joe Mauer still isn't with the team, but he's hitting anyway. Maybe to commemorate him.

Yes, the Twins pitching was stout, what we'd expect, tonight, and even with stupid, evil Kevin Miller stealing a game-winning-RBI bid from Carlos Gomez in the 10th, Joe Crede finally came through and drove in Justin Morneau in the 11th. The White Sux were idle today, so we're only a game back from them now.

What? What's that you say?! The Sox aren't leading the division, it's the Royals?

Not to worry. I love the cute little guys, but don't worry about them. Until we play them. Then they just might beat'ya. They can now.

Anyways, after a big extra-inning win, enjoy some highlight video.

And as Dan gladden would say, perhaps your favorite cold beverage

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I think the Royals might just hang around.

They are the new (old?) Twins; they do play sound baseball and they have a good coaching staff IMHO.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Apr 15, 2009 4:10 AM EDT reply actions

PS-I too am stunned by Perkins.

I really thought last year he was nearly always on the verge of a complete meltdown, and truly expected it to rear it’s ugly head at the very start of this season, but I am happy to eat that crow sandwich.

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Apr 15, 2009 4:13 AM EDT reply actions

Good starts by Perkins

Almost two times through the rotation, and Perkins has pitched the best. Diving into the numbers, there are reasons for optimism and pessimism:

Glass half full:
- 1.69 BB/9 is below his career 2.41 rate. We saw improvement from 2007 (3.77) to 2008 (2.32), perhaps more improvement in 2009?

Glass half empty:
- He’s throwing even more fly balls than usual. GB/FB ratio of 0.68 is below career average 0.91. 25 FB so far in two starts. Considering a typical HR/FB around 10%, Perkins has been lucky to the tune of 2-3 HR. This will balance out.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

HR rate

Do you know if there’s any data about whether HR/FB is (or at least could be) a skill? I’m pretty sure it is for hitters, although I guess I don’t know the exact numbers for that either.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Apr 15, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Definitely for hitters

but I’m not aware of anything that shows it to be a skill for pitchers. If it is, I suspect it’s on the relatively small order of clutch hitting, and it’s small compared to park effect on HR/FB.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

popups

do pop-ups and short flies count as flyballs. I would be surprised if HR/FB isn’t a skill. There are plenty of good pitchers who aren’t ground ball pitchers, and presumably it isn’t just strike outs.

I’m pretty curious about this now, because I have the felling that there are pitchers who aren’t ground ball pitchers, but people struggle to make good contact with, which probably means the give up a lot of doubles and fly outs, but keep down homerusn.

by snolls on Apr 15, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

whoops

I should have read fartehr down first.

by snolls on Apr 15, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions

There is

There are numbers for % of fly balls as pop ups.

But generally, the only thing that consistently effects HR/FB for pitchers after popups is park effect.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Gloat on

I’m not at all surprised he’s pitching like this. We saw him pitch like this last August. Then his arm died. It doesn’t make a a lot of sense from a Saber perspective—he doesn’t strike out a lot of guys and he gets a lot of fly outs. But I think it’s a deficiency in our metrics. We don’t distinguish between types of fly balls. For me, pop-outs are the best kind of outs: They’re the easiest BIPs to defend and they often require fewer than three pitches to get. But a guy who gets a lot of pop ups, like Perkins, doesn’t get credit for that. He’s seen as potentially homer happy because he doesn’t get a lot of ground balls.

How does he get so many pop ups? He is very good on the inside, so he gets in on the trademark. He also throws hard—harder than Liriano. Guys don’t get around on his fastball very often because it’s hard in. And that allows him to use his improved change up and slider effectively.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions

Fangraphs breaks out popups

separately as infield fly balls. They’re not included in GB/FB ratios, so I think your concerns are accounted for.

I would be interested in seeing if his FBs tend to be more of the popup variety, but we’ll have to wait until MLB comes out with Hit F/x. Considering his HR/FB was 11.7% last year, I don’t think he had an unusual proportion of weak fly balls compared to the rest of the league.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions

inside

on the radio last night, Dan Gladden was commenting how Perkins was pitching hard inside, and he liked it. Gladden likes Perk a lot because (he said) of his willingness to pitch hard inside

by DedicatedFollowerOfFashion on Apr 15, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

That's often said about Perkins

that his pitching hard inside keeps the hitters off balance and makes him effective. I think this is right, one of these days I should analyze batted ball data based on pitch location for Perkins. I could look at the quality of batted balls when a batter makes contact with a Perkins fastball on the inside corner or off the plate inside, as well as on batted balls after Perkins has come inside… Could be interesting to confirm Gladden and others’ beliefs…

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

That would help us understand the mystery of why a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters is nonetheless effective.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions

THT

The Hardball times keeps track of these things. His Pop up % isn’t anything truly special, around a not abnormal 10% of FB’s. THat’s a couple percentage points high, but nothing crazy.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Definitions

I haven’t spent a lot of time researching this, obviously. But how do they define pop-ups? Is it just infield flies? Is it based on trajectory? It’s going to come down a judgment calls at some point, but it would be nice to know what that point is.

For me, a pop fly in anything that is too shallow to be a sac fly, hangs in the air long enough for outfielders to just walk under it and is not a Texas-League single. To others, that might be a legitimate FB.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

To me

To me a pop fly stays in the infield. Hardball Time’s pop-fly rating is more specifically IF/FB, or the % of all fly balls that are in the infield.

And I don’t think there is much evidence showing your variation of fly balls being outside the normal fly-ball progression.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

That makes sense

If we’re only talking about fly balls caught by infielders. What I see a lot from Perkins are the kind of fly balls where either the infielder or the outfielder could easily catch it, and the outfielder calls the infielder off. If HBT deems those the same as, say a warning track fly ball to the gap that the CF makes a great play to catch, you can start to see the limitations in our metrics.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Indeed

Indeed, but I think those differences tend to mostly work out through chance in the end. Don’t know for sure though, it’s a developing field.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 15, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

We always have to qualify stuff with small sample size, saying stuff like, it all tends to even out in the end. Some of that is a necessity. But the hope is we will eventually be able to evaluate players with fewer than a half a years’ worth of performances.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 15, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll tell you this

I’ll say this: I have all the information I need now to say Perkins has pitched great so far this year.

I don’t have enough to really say exactly why this is or how sustainable it is or if he’ll keep it up or if he’s improved something.

But considering how shaky many of our performances have been thusfar, I’ll take it.

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 16, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Yep

Perkins has pitched great so far this year. How sustainable / lucky it may be is an open question, but he’s been the best in the rotation so far.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 16, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

A lot of people thought Slowey and Baker were our best starters going into the season. Considering what they did on either side of Perkin’s start, it says a lot about how Perkins pitched the other night. That Toronto line-up is hot. It takes good pitching to beat good hitting.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 16, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Three stars

* * Joe Crede. He looked pretty bad at the plate the other three times, but two doubles including a walkoff gets the stars.

* Glen Perkins. Another solid start, avoided the long ball again.

(tie) Jesse Crain. Put up 2 zeros in extra innings. Crucial.

(tie) Justin Morneau. 3 for 5, scored the winning run. Unfortunate baserunning miscue though.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions

Forgot about the formatting...

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Question for those who saw the game

I didn’t see the game, so I’m curious about something. I noticed that the AP recap said that Romero was “effectively wild”, yet I also saw that he had no walks and just two strikeouts. Were the Twins being horribly impatient, or was the wildness staying mostly within the zone?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Apr 15, 2009 10:40 AM EDT reply actions

I watched the game and didn't think Romero was wild

by caluofmn on Apr 15, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

in the zone

except against Gomez and Young haha

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 15, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Twins hitters have a way of making a pitcher "effectively wild"

Romero was mostly within the zone, but watching the game, a few guys chased a bunch of pitches. Most were the usual suspects (Gomez, Young, Crede), but Morneau also chased a few. He was all over the zone once the count got to 2 or (rarely) 3 balls.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 15, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree

We have too many free swingers. Some of our guys need to just slow it down

www.clonechronicles.com

by Mark Kieffer on Apr 15, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not shocked

I think this is the beautiful thing about the Twins rotations. Every single guy has the ability to be a part time ace. None of them is at the point yet where they are a true Ace but they all have that glimmer to be a 1 or 2 guy in the league. Do I think they will all reach that? No. I do think they all have that ability though. It’s an exciting time to be a Twins fan with this amazing rotation locked up for years to come. Now, if they’d just get going on that Mauer extension I think we could all be very happy about the teams next 4+ years.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 15, 2009 11:24 AM EDT reply actions

Damn! Optimism!

But I am the pessimist! And so where you see glimmers of potential I see years and money wasted on men who will always tantalize but never deliver, resulting in years more of mediocrity and uncertainty. And the worst part, so much of the problems are systematic in the org!

Well there’s the other side. Hope I’m wrong and you’re right.

Dear Firpo, looks like my stock is fine.

by MNPundit on Apr 15, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions