Glen Perkins Beginning

by CARXRiedmann on Apr 20, 2009 2:43 PM EDT

Glen Perkins has had what some would think is a dominant start to the season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings, this is three starts for eight innings each only giving up 16 hits and 4 walks, going for a WHIP of .83.

Looking at those stats, it looks like Glen has started the season remarkably well, but if you dig a little deeper, it seems as if regression is going to come soon. So far, he's only sported 4.5 k/9, and 1.5 BB/9, while the walk mark is superb, the K mark leaves a lot to be desired with projections on his season going from 5.32 to 6.66 an inning; his BABIP is .223, meaning things really have to go his way. He's yet to give up a home run so far, but he's on15.3 LD% lower than his average, but he's still likely to give up some bombs.

He's doing well, but success will be hard to be maintained.

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if he keeps on pitching hard inside all year he should be alright

Danoo

by Danoo on Apr 20, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions

No one is expecting him to keep his ERA at 1.50

But he has all the look of being a pitcher with an ERA under 3.50. Thanks for the stats that show he won’t challenge Bob Gibson this season.

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by duckman86 on Apr 20, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions

Ha

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on Apr 20, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd be very happy with an ERA around 4.00

from Perkins this year, as well as a full season (no September nosedive). Yes, the BABIP will balance itself out, as will the HR%.

So far, the 12 SO / 4 BB / 0 HR over 24 innings corresponds to a 2.70 FIP. Very good, but it’s probably artificially low due to the 0% HR/FB (typically around 10%). Perkins has given up 33 fly balls this year. Plugging 3.3 HR into the FIP equation gives roughly a 4.49 xFIP, which is probably a truer measure of his ERA once the BABIP and HR/FB balance out. Still well above most projections this year, and he could go even lower if he pumps his SO/9 up into the 5-6 range.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 21, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions