Twins Set Roster

by Jesse on Apr 5, 2009 11:38 AM EDT in News

With Matt Tolbert's optioning to triple-A yesterday, we have our 25. Who predicted this list with 100% accuracy?

It's not ideal, in any scenario. Not having your Opening Day starter, or the best offensive catcher in baseball, break camp with you just isn't the way any team wants to kick off a season. Nevertheless, the reality is staring the Twins in the face: overcome this obstacle from day one.

Starting Rotation: Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, R.A. Dickey

This was the one area of the team that didn't raise many big questions, but with Scott Baker on the 15-day DL the short-list of fifth starters wasn't as deep as it was long. Dickey had a strong spring, striking out 18 in 17.2 innings and allowing just four runs. Hopefully that knuckleball can keep hitters off balance for five or six innings, and maybe by the time Baker returns the decision on what to do with Dickey will be a difficult one for all the right reasons.

Bullpen: Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain, Craig Breslow, Matt Guerrier, Luis Ayala, Phil Humber, Brian Duensing

If the Twins hadn't lost Boof Bonser, the only difference I can imagine is that he'd have taken the spot being anchored by Duensing. This profiles as a solid, if unspectacular, bullpen that has a strong core that thins out quickly. Gardenhire's biggest challenge will be how quickly he can adapt his bullpen when certain arms go on hot or cold streaks. With a closer like Nathan, there's certainty at the back end of a game and a start to a hard-line heirarchy, but there's definitely going to be some jostling and re-positioning as the season progresses.

Catchers: Mike Redmond, Jose Morales

You can't ask for a better backup than Mike Redmond. The Twins are very fortunate to have a guy like Redmond who's not only willing to do whatever it takes in whatever capacity his team asks of him, but can do it at a level, at the dish or behind it, that he does. I'm not going to fool anyone into thinking that Mike over 130 games would be as effective as he would be in 40 - 60 games, but as a backup he's very good. Morales is unproven, but with a historically passable bat from the minors and what's been described as improving defense throughout the spring, it's a good situation for him to learn. Depending on how long Redmond chooses to continue playing and the long-term repurcussions on Joe Mauer's role with the team, Morales could be seeing some decent playing time over the next couple of seasons.

Infielders: Justin Morneau, Alexi Casilla, Joe Crede, Nick Punto, Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris

Basically this is what was predicted should the Twins take 12 pitchers north, which is exactly what they're doing. While Gardenhire called optioning Matt Tolbert one of the most difficult things he's ever had to do as a manager, it's hard to justify three backup infielders when one of them isn't the designated hitter. Besides, while Tolbert (.294/.385/.456) had a good spring, it's hard to promote him over Buscher (.393/.470/.554) or Harris (.311/.417/.410) when both of them, as incumbents, had the performances they had this spring. Tolbert will get his opportunity to impress at some juncture this season, whether because injuries or poor performance or something else intervenes, it just won't be from Opening Day.

Outfielders: Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Gomez, Jason Kubel, Denard Span, Delmon Young

This scenario didn't have nearly as much drama attached to it as I thought it would coming out of last season. Span was the only one who had a truly difficult time this spring at the plate, but it's never a good idea to take spring training performances as a precursor of what's to come of the real thing. Still, I will say this: over his last ten games, Span has hit .276/.382/.345...which is much better than he had been doing. Yes, I just spoke out of both sides of my mouth. I try to not be too biased, but I never said I was completely objective.

Conclusions

I still think this team needs Mauer and Baker to even have a shot at October. Every team in the American League Central has flaws, and the Twins are certainly no exception, but even with their best players this isn't a strong team on paper.

Luckily the game isn't played on paper, and each of the 162 games (that begin tomorrow, by the way!) on the schedule do actually have to be played...contrary to popular belief. Summer's best sport opens tomorrow, and personally I can't wait.

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Comments

The "Summer's best sport?" Naw, the best sport, period.

But good write-up. I wonder how long Glen Perkins will be starting. That’s where I see the starting rotation falling apart. Maybe not Silva falling apart, but he’ll likely need to be replaced mid-July.

I hope I’m wrong, though.

by Evan Nelson on Apr 5, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions

Jesse, I must respectfully disagree...

…I believe that with Mauer and Baker, this is a strong team…both on paper and the field.

The real interesting decision is going to be what happens when Baker comes off the DL in a couple weeks. Having added Dickey to the 40-man roster means he would have to clear waivers to be sent out to Rochester. Same with Humber, who has struggled the last few games down in Florida. Their only option without running the risk of losing a player would be to send their second lefty, Duensing, down to Rochester.

by roger13 on Apr 5, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's

a strong team on paper if we get marked improvements this season from guys like Young and Cuddyer and Gomez. But it would also mean no drop-off in others, like Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Baker, Nathan, Kubel and Span. It’s a lot to ask for.

This team is more than capable of being competetive, and like I say below—162 games is a long season. But this team needs its share of bounces to go its way to keep pace with what we did last year. If I’m wrong I’ll happily eat my shorts (metaphorically). I’d like nothing more than to be proven wrong, and for the Twins to pull out 90 wins…which could, on paper, win them the division.

by Jesse on Apr 5, 2009 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Depends on what one considers "strong"

With Mauer and Baker, I consider this team to be a solid 85-90 win team, depending on the breaks. That’s “strong”, especially in our division. In the AL East, that’s a 4th place team…

Yes, we could see dropoffs from a few, perhaps Span, but in general I believe the improvements will outweigh the dropoffs, especially when you consider Liriano from day one.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 6, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

That’s basically what I wrote in my preview.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 6, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

weak link

I agree that Perkins is the weak link. BUT, if you remember that he is our 5th starter, it becomes a little less upsetting. And, in that role, he doesn’t have to be good to be better than the average 5th starter.

If, in mid-July, we feel we have a better option, I’ll be excited, but as long as we don’t roly on Perkins to be a middle of the rotation guy, he’ll probably be good enough.

Roger – I’m thinking the same thing about the roster. If Baker really comes back in a week or two, it is kind of a big risk to take, putting Dickey on the 40 man for one or two starts. They must intend to keep him on the team, which really surprises me. I’m starting to think they see Humber as the guy to go. I keep having high hopes for Humber, because he was such a big prospect once upon a time, and he should be getting better coming back from surgery, but he continues to disappoint.

by snolls on Apr 5, 2009 12:21 PM EDT reply actions

Compared to other AL fifth starters

IMO, Perkins is above league average. According to the latest ESPN depth charts, looking solely at potential 2009 production, I’d put Perkins at 4th of 14 fifth starters in the AL. Only Penny and Chamberlain are clearly ahead of Perkins, and Penny is quite the injury risk. Some of the others have higher upside, but don’t have near the innings in the majors that Perkins has.

Above Perkins:
- Brad Penny, BOS
- Joba Chamberlain, NYY
- Ryan Rowland-Smith, SEA

Below Perkins:
- Adam Eaton, BAL
- Jeff Niemann, TAM
- Scott Richmond, TOR
- Scott Lewis, CLE
- Jose Contreras, CHW
- Rick Porcello, DET
- Horacio Ramirez, KC
- Shane Loux, LAA
- Josh Outman, OAK
- Matt Harrison, TEX

by Adam Peterson on Apr 7, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

When you say 2009 production,

are you talking projections? Or 2008 production?

Because basing this list off of what guys are likely to do/are capable of, instead of how they performed last year (if that’s the way you went), would likely drop Perk down a few spots. I’m not too optimistic about Perkins getting the same results this season if he pitches exactly the same as he did last summer.

by Jesse on Apr 8, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Perkins

I don’t think he’s a weak link. He had a rough September last year, mostly because of fatigue. But he was the best starter on the team in August. And he was the best starter on the team this spring. I look for him to take a step forward this year, not a step back.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 5, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions

this is a good team on paper

and I’ll tell you why:

We have a pretty solid line up 1-9. Gomez is the weaklink if you don’t think he has improved any. We have depth. We have capable backups and we will usually have an extra starting OF bat on the bench. We have 5 solid startering pitchers, when Baker comes back. Harris and Buscher = solid platoon but are behind a solid 3B Crede who can smack 20+ HRs. Redmond and Morales will probably combine to hit .270 while teaming up together, while they have no power, they are solid for C’s, and that is without Mauer.=, the best C in the game.

Our middle relief is solid, not spectacular and this is where you can find our holes, Nathan is one of the games best.

Are we the best? That’s debateable. But I see enough improvement that we shoulb be able to win 88-93 games this year.

Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb

by doofus on Apr 5, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions

Cautiously Pessimistic...

I know…it doesn’t really make as much sense. What I’m saying is that I have lower expectations than most.

Personally, I think that Blackburn could take a step back. I think the league started figuring him out, and he pitches to contact. I know some will say his second half numbers were fatigue, but I think it was more getting a book on him. Likewise, Perkins is turning out to be somewhat similar and will probably have an ERA somewhere north of 4.50.

We are just getting to opening day and we’re without Baker and Mauer. I think Baker should be okay, but Mauer’s situation is worrisome. Back issues, in particular lower back issues, have a way of recurring. A lot of Morneau’s production depends on having Mauer getting on base and moving runners ahead before he gets to the plate.

I’m not sure what to make of Denard Span. Last year was unlike anything he has ever done in the minors. He hasn’t had an OPS over .800 since A-ball in Fort Myers. Not coincidentally, that was also the last time he ever had a SLG over .400. He has 10 career HRs in almost 2,100 ABs in the minors. He hit six in 347 with the Twins. I fear that was more an outlier than the start of a trend.

Conversely, I think Cuddyer will bounce back and Young and Gomez can continue to develop. Kubel could be even better than last year.

In the end, I think our power will be better, which will help because our batting average with runners in scoring position was an unsustainable .305 last year; 18 points higher than the second best mark in the league and 36 points higher than our average without RISP. Our BA with RISP in 2007 was .276—a regression to the mean is coming. Hopefully, an increase in power will offset that.

My take is that our offense will be no better than last year. If Crede can be healthy and contribute—neither are close to guarantees—then it is possible our offense could be slightly better; especially if Mauer misses minimal time. However, I think our starting pitching won’t look as good as it did last year due to more questions at the back end with Blackburn and Perkins and any lingering issues with Baker. Obviously, Liriano is an upgrade over Livan, but don’t count on a repeat of 2006.

by rencito on Apr 5, 2009 5:24 PM EDT reply actions

+1

I think you nailed it on the head.

by montanatwinsfan on Apr 5, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I think you have some pretty realistic expectations.

They mirror my own in many ways, so I’m not about to say you’re too pessimistic at all.

Ultimately, I think this team will need some heavy-duty improvement in a number of areas, and almost zero decline in others, to contend. But, again, baseball is difficult to predict. 162 games is a very long season, and a lot can change in that time.

by Jesse on Apr 5, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions