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AL Central Preview

At long last, the chapter that I could never find the end of is done, and I can focus my attention on previewing the Twins' division, four weeks after I expected to. Well, better late than never.

Minnesota Twins

It's hard to come at this objectively, since I'm known as the biggest homer around here. But I'll do my best to view this team with a skeptical eye. I've been turning over every possible issue and I just can't find too many beyond potential health issues. And even those are more of the nagging than the season-threatening variety. A lot of people expect regression, but with the exception of Denard Span, the guys who had years above their norm last year are built for the long haul and on the good side of the age/performance bell curve. So I don't see huge regression from anyone but Span. And the Twins outfield depth should be able to absorb that. If both Scott Baker and Joe Mauer return to this team in April as expected, it should be the clear favorite for the division with around 90 wins.

Line-up: This should be the best Twins line-up since 91. It has a lot of speed at the top and bottom and a lot of power potential in the middle. I say potential because the guys who need to produce power to make this line-up as good as the one that hit .305 with RISP are question marks. Joe Crede must stay healthy all year. Michael Cuddyer must return to somewhere near his 2006 form. And Delmon Young must progress to somewhere near his 2007 form. So far so good, if spring training is any indicator. The guy who will take a step forward is Jason Kubel, who will give the Twins three formidable left-handed sticks in the middle of the order.

Defense: The Twins sport the league's best defense, with the best center field combination in Carlos Gomez and Span, the best catcher, and average to above average middle infielders. The black hole the last few years has been admirably filled with Joe Crede at third. And Justin Morneau continues to improve into the upper third of first basemen in the league.The lone weakness is the corner outfielders, who lack range and only make up some of that with their arms.

Rotation: I was about to claim that defense is the strength of this team but then I realized that the rotation is. Five starters who should average 180 innings and a FIP around 4 means the Twins should be in just about every game. In particular, I'm impressed with the improvement from Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey, who form a very solid middle of the rotation. The only worry is Scott Baker's shoulder. Twins fans can only hope it is just stiffness as the Twins medical staff has claimed. Nick Blackburn's knee is also somewhat of a concern, but if he's healthy, he should at least duplicate what he did last year.

Bullpen: On paper this is a good but not great bullpen. Joe Nathan is one of the top closers in the game. And Jesse Crain and Luis Ayala should be solid if not shut- down set-up guys. But the pen lacks depth. Matt Guerrier is coming off the worst implosion by a Twins pitcher since Dan Serafini. I don't expect much out of him. Philip Humber has yet to establish himself in the big leagues. Ditto for Brian Duensing. The lone bright spot in the middle relief corps is Craig Breslow. Hopefully manager Ron Gardenhire decides to use him in close and late situations. If not, this could get ugly like last year, when this unit blew 26 saves. The Twins can only hope that Jose Mijares makes it back and eitehr Rob Delaney or Anthony Slama can emerge. Otherwise, 20 blown saves is a reasonable projection.

 

 

Star-divide

Cleveland Indians

If the season were played on paper by analysts who stare at fantasy baseball stats, the Indians would be the team to beat. They sport the most dangerous line-up in the division,  a strong bullpen, and a solid manager and coaching staff. Fortunately for Twins fans, the season is not played on paper. And the stats you track for fantasy baseball do not tell the whole story. The two things that worry my frined the Indians fan are starting pitching and defense. Because pitching and defense win and lose divisions, I'm picking them to finish second, with 84 wins.

Line-up: The Indians sport the deepest line-up in the division, led by Grady Sizemore at the top and with solid middle guys such as Victor Martinez, Kelly Shoppach, Jhonny Peralta, and Ryan Garko. The big question mark is DH Travis Hafner, who was often hurt and otherwise awful last year. If he can return to form, this should be a great line-up. But if last year was just the first step in an inevitable decline, the line-up suddenly seems so-so. Even if Hafner returns to form, Manager Eric Wedge will have his hands full trying to get at bats for Shoppach, Martinez and Garko since you can only have one catcher and one first baseman in the line-up at one time. If Hafner continues to decline, Martinez takes over at his natural position--DH--and Pronk becomes the left-handed bat off the bench, which would not be the worst thing.

Defense: The Indians are not a good defensive team, despite the fact that they have the second best center fielder in the league. Peralta is a third baseman who might end up playing a lot of short this year, as Mark DeRosa plays out of position at third. Garko is mediocre at first. And Martinez is miserable behind the plate. The corner outfielders should be somewhat better this year as the Indians inject some youth into the team. But overall, this team lacks range.

Starters: Typically an Indians strength, starting pitching will be the main weakness of this team this year. They effectively traded CC Sabathia for Carl Pavano and chose not to resign Paul Byrd. The last full season those two were in the rotation, they logged 431 innings. Since Pavano last pitched an inning, Sabathia and Byrd have pitched over 1600 innings between them. Cliff Lee is coming off a career year and should regress some. Fausto Carmona should also regress to the mean, in the good direction. But if you just average his production the last two years, you get about 160 innings and a 4.5 FIP. Beyond those two, there's a bunch of question marks. This could be a long season in Cleveland unless some of these marginally talented guys in the back of the rotation unexpectedly shine.

Bullpen: For the first time since Bob Wickman defaulted on his pact with the Voodoo Queen, the Indians have a real closer in Kerry Wood. He's still not not best closer in the division--not even second or third best--but he's not the worst, which is an improvement for this team. The set-up guys are nothing special, but there are four solid guys, assuming Rafeal Betancourt can return to form without the pressure of the closer's role. That's a big if: He was suspended for using steroids about the time Juan Rincon was and their careers have been strikingly similar since. But it's a good sign that the Indians no longer carry Juanie on their active roster at least. Instead they have a guy named Kobayashi, who was last seen eating like 50 hot dogs in a minute. That's an improvement over Rincon.

 

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have gone backwards this offseason as GM Kenny Williams attempts to rebuild on the fly. Like the Indians, the Sox traded their biggest innings eater in Javier Vazquez, who logged over 600 innings for the Pale Hosers over the past three years. Still, the rotation is the strength of this aging team of slow sluggers, and it's matched by a bullpen that should save enough games to keep manager Ozzie Guillen in a job for at least one more year. They'll finish third with an even record.

Line-up: The White Sox will rely on the three-run homer but struggle to get enough guys on base ahead of their bombs to hit many of them. Alexi Ramirez is the lone guy on the club with much speed. But with 18 walks and a .317 OBP last year, he was just slightly better than Carlos Gomez in that category. The Sox will rely on Carlos Quentin, Germain Dye, Jim Thome, AJ Pierzinski and Paul Konerko to generate offense this year. So much for small ball.

Defense: This is where the Sox will really struggle. AJ is a decent backstop and Ramirez should be OK at short. But the rest of this team is S-L-O-W. Brian Anderson is a corner outfielder playing center. Fields and Konerko are tree stumps. And Dye and Quentin are not much better.

Rotation: The Sox have the makings of a solid rotation with Mark Buerhle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd at the top. Unfortunately, both Danks and Floyd had years last year even Sox fans don't expect to see again this year. And Jose Contreras and Bartolo Colon at the back of the rotation is a nightmare for Sox fans. This is a rotation that should just squeeze out enough wins to break even, and that's it.

Bullpen: This is the strength of this team, anchored by Bobby Jenks and set up by Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink, DJ Corasco and Matt Thornton. They will not blow too any leads this year, unless their defense fails them. But fortunately for them, they strike out enough batters to leave less to their defense.

 

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have improved more than any other team in the division this offseason. Along with the maturing of some of their young stars, might this be the year they make more than incremental improvement and leap-frog over teams they have looked up at for two decades? No. They have two great starters and three scrubs in the rotation. That's not enough for an even record, though they will go over 500 a couple times this year, they won't finish above .500. Still, they won't be last in the division either.I see 80 wins and fourth.

Line-up: The additions of Coco Crisp at the top of the order and Mike Jacobs in the middle will help a weak line-up score more than last year, when they only managed 691 runs. But the team will struggle to score enough and will fight to win a lot of close games unless two young stars finally emerge: Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. If those two can take the next step forward, there's enough solid guys like David DeJesus, Mark Teahan and Mike Aviles to make this team dangerous.

Defense: This team should be strong up the middle this year with Crisp in center, Aviles and Alberto Callaspo up the middle and John Buck and Miguel Olivo sharing catching duties. They're still somewhat weak on the corners. Gordon is average at third and Teahan is a poor corner outfielder. But up the middle is what really counts, so overall they should be above average defensively.

Rotation: The Royals sport the best top of the rotation in the division with Zach Greinke and Gil Meche. Unfortunately, if goes downhill from there. Kyle Davies looks like a fifth starter to me. Horatio Ramirez and Jamey Wright look like seventh and eighth starters. This rotation will struggle to win half its games.

Bullpen: This might be the strongest bullpen in the division with Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth setting up Joakim Soria. Doug Waechter and Ron Mahey round out a very deep pen that will have its hands full with this starting staff, except when Meche and Greinke pitch.

 

Detroit Tigers

This is a bad ball club. They're the most defensively challenged team in baseball playing in the most defensively challenging ballpark. And they have the worst pitching in the division. I've seen lots of teams attempt to slug their way and fail without the pitching they need. The 1977 Twins come to mind. It just doesn't work. I see around 75 wins, last place in the division,  and a house cleaning at the top. Wasn't it just three years ago that GM Dave Dumbrowski and Manager Jim Leyland were hailed as the saviors of Tigers' baseball?

Line-up: This is clearly the strength of this team. With Granderson and Placido Polanco at the top of the order and Maglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera in the middle, this team will score runs. The question is, will it be enough?

Defense: The good news is, the team has a very good center fielder in Curtis Granderson and should be solid up the middle in the infield with Adam Everette and Placido Polanco. But that's the only good news. If Leyland puts Miguel Cabrera at DH and  Carlos Guillen at first and Brandon Inge at third, they won't be awful. But Ordonez and Thames on the coners in that huge outfield is a gapper machine. The worst news is at the catching position: Gerald Laird and Matt Tranor? I thought the White Sxx were hard up with Corky "Corky" Miller as the back-up.

Rotation: The Tigers have some arms. Verlander, Bonderman, Zumaya, Willis. It sounds good, unless you actually do your research. Veralander is the ace and he could rebound. But the other three are out with various ailments. Willis is done for good, I think, with anxiety over the fact that he never was as good as he seemed. Zumaya's shoulder won't come back (I know he's a bullpen guy, but people talk about him becoming a starter). Bonderman might come back at some point this year, but who knows? He had the same procedure that Jay Rainville had. Jay is still trying to get his velocity back after two years. Beyond that, we're talking about Armando Gallaraga, who is a solid starter, And Zach Miner, Nate Robertson and Edwin Jackson, who are not solid starters.

Bullpen: Tiger's fans say Brandon Lyon is a savior. Um, if he's a savior, this bullpen is really in trouble. He had a Matt Guerrier-like year last year. Fernando Rodney has been a good set-up guy when healthy. But who knows if he can stay healthy? The only thing you need to know about this bullpen is that Juan Rincon is one of the set-up guys. I can't wait to play theses guys so I can watch the Twins gap hitters feasting on Rincon's fat fastballs and shooting triples into the gaps at Comerica Park.

 

 

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Twins

I think that the top two teams will be close, just because that’s how baseball usually works. I see two teams ending up around 90 wins, hopefully the Twins and someone (prob Clev).

But, since we’re all a bunch of homers, lets talk about potential and risk. I like your summary overall, but here are the areas where I think there is significantly likelihood of disappointment.
1. The “foreseeable” injuries to Mauer / Baker / Crede / Blackburn. Obviously, these would cost us, presented in order of signficance.
2. Nathan is over the hill, and starts to show it. He has been unbelievable so far, but we have to recognize that his skills are diminishing, and we are depending on them to diminish slowly.
3. First impressions were just that: Span, Blackburn, Perkins, Slowey. We’ve all discussed Span. He had a great year, and that might have been a career year for a guy that never performed like that in the minors. Or Lasik is magic, and spring training is just that (“training”). Its the pitchers I want to bring up. We all know that Perkins is a back of the rotation guy, so as long as we don’t expect a 4.00 FIP from him, we should be alright. The questions are Blackburn and Slowey. Blackburn’s stuff isn’t considered great, but he had enough success over his last two years in the minors, and is our #4, so I’m not too worried, but its a question to ask. Slowey is my bigger question. They raved about him as a prospect, and he dominated minor league hitters, so there probably isn’t much to fear, but watching him throw straight fastballs at the knees and thighs for 2 hours every start leaves me wondering what makes him hard to hit. I don’t see any deception or movement. Still, it worked for BRadke, so Slowey may be a good #2 quality pitcher for a long time.
4. Favoritism: the players that disappoint don’t get benched. This is actually my biggest concern. One of the strengths of this team is its depth. We have 5 quality outfielders. We have starter quality (not stars, but serviceable) backups at middle and corner infield. This means that we should be able to survive an injury at almost any position (obviously Mauer/Morneau/Baker/Liriano would hurt, but you get the point). I’m more worried that someone like Gomez or Crede really doesn’t come through. If Gomez is hitting .250/.290, or Crede isn’t hitting homeruns, we need to start playing the extra outfielder, or Harris/Buscher. If Gardy insist on playing his “gamers”, the team will suffer. I almost forgot Punto. His PAs better at least partially be a function of his play at the plate.

Potential:
1. Breakouts: Young, Gomez, Kubel, Blackburn, Casilla, relief pitchers. To some extent, we’ve probalby already built in the average progress these players will show, but who knows. Maybe Young comes through with .300/.350/30HR, and Gomez find an OBP of .375. It could happen.
2. Harris/Buscher: These guys can hit. That’s actually why we brought Harris over, though that has been forgotten. The Twins thought of him as an asset, that could upgrade our power a the bottom or top of the lineup. These guys could see a lot of action if they’re playing well, and may come through with decent OBP and 15 HR each, given enough PAs. That adds a lot of depth to a lineup that could otherwise have some sserious black holes (Punto since its an odd year, and Gomez if he hasn’t improved as much as we hope).
3. Minor league emergence. I don’t expect to much in the way of surprises from our minor league squad, if only because we are deep enough in the majors that they aren’t likely to get a lot of changes. Still, maybe a Hughes or Plouffe really show up this year, and come up at mid-season. The best candidates are the bullpen prospects: Mijares, Slama, Delaney. The problem is that our major league players need to get injured or released. The best candidates are probably Humber, Dickey, Ayala, and Guerrier (if his free fall continues, Smith may need to over-rule Gardy).
4. Dickey: I don’t think its something we should be counting on, but I love knuckleballs, and maybe he perfects it in the dome. How awesome would that be. I mostly just want to have this on paper, in case it happens, but I don’t see it as likely.

Overall, I think you were being pretty fair, CMath, but I also think the downside outweighs the upside here. Still, if we roll a little bit of luck (especially healthwise), we should still have something riding on the games late into the year.

by snolls on Apr 6, 2009 8:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Cleveland

I’m not a buyer in Cleveland at all. Cliff Lee is going to massively regress and they have a lot of scrubs there. The bad D won’t help. I don’t see the Indians threatening anyone unless Hanfer rebounds out of nowhere, but I don’t expect it after multiple bad years. The Twins have prolific depth at many positions too and can absorb the inevitable injuries of the season better than most. I still wish we would have gotten Orlando Hudon instead of Crede though, but mayb ehe’ll hit 25 bombs and prove me wrong.

The Sox? Well, the Sox could be dangerous if their aging sluggers stick around. The Sox have had pretty good luck with guys exceeding mean expectations, so maybe that’s in the cards again.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Apr 6, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions  

The Tigers.

Since you are a Twins blogger, I would expect you to devote most of your time and energy into following the home team.

But I think calling the Tigers the “most defensively challenged team in baseball” is a lazy accusation that indicates you haven’t really done your homework when it comes to handicapping the rest of the division.

Brandon Inge (at 3rd), Gerald Laird, and Adam Everett are huge upgrades defensively for a team and fanbase that had to suffer through Inge behind the plate, Carlos Guillen at 3rd and Edgar Renteria at SS last year. With guys like Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, and Josh Anderson manning a few of the other spots, this team is capable of being really good defensively.

I’m not trying to rip your preview; I just felt like I had to defend the Tigers defense. It’s going to better than you think.

by bradm on Apr 6, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions  

For your sake, I hope you're right

I saw Everette last year and, frankly, I was not impressed. His range is good, but that’s mostly because he plays deep. He had a hard time on choppers in front of him, surrendering a lot of infield hits. And his arm was weak. Part of that was injury, but he didn’t do anything to improve it, so it remained weak even after he came back from injury. Not many guys’ shoulders heal of their own accord.

Brandon Inge is an upgrade over Guillen and Guillen is an upgrade over Cabrera, as I said. But Guillen is no Carlos Pena. He’s not quite as slow as Sean Casey, but he’s not very quick either. Also, I gave Polanco the benefit of the doubt. He’s actually a lot worse than his reputation according to statistics (last year, his UZR was 0.9.).

Laird is an upgrade over Inge but not Rodriguez. But he’s still the fourth or fifth best defensive catcher in the division. If Anderson gets starts, that will improve the outfield. But I don’t know how many starts he’ll get. Cabrera moving to DH means Thames in left field. As I said, I think Granderson is terrific, And I really like Inge, but most of the others are average or below. And some are well below average. Ordonez is the worst right fielder in the game.

The defense will be better this year, no question. But it still has a long way to go.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 6, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Everett's D

Everett’s arm is a legitimate cause for concern – Twins fans can attest that it was horrible last year.

As for how deep he plays, though, I don’t know that that’s a negative. I read an interesting article a year or two ago (can’t remember where I saw it, so I can’t link to it) comparing the infield defense of Derek Jeter and Adam Everett – a huge percentage of the difference between them was the depth at which they played. The comparison included comparing a reel of their “best” and “worst” plays – Jeter’s best plays were slow infield rollers in which he robbed guys of infield hits, while Everett’s were plays in which he ranged into the hole in either direction (as you’d guess, Jeter’s best were Everett’s worst and vice-versa). From comparing the huge disparity in Jeter and Everett’s defensive stats, one of the main conclusions in the article was that you gain a whole lot more additional outs playing for maximum side-to-side range than you do worrying about infield hits.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Apr 6, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Playing deep works if you have a strong arm

But what good is getting to a ball in the hole if you can’t gun the runner down with your weak arm?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 6, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I’m glad I made such a fuss over our defense – especially Everett’s. It was on display last night.

sigh

by bradm on Apr 7, 2009 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Biased much

I know that it’s reasonable to expect a little bit of bias in a hometown blog, but you take a couple things a bit too far. Do you honestly think the Twins have the best centerfield in the division? Have you consistently watched Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson? Those two are the only players in the league, let alone the division, who should be considered as real contenders for the gold glove right now. And I wouldn’t be as excited about your catching right now with Mauer’s health concerns. But hey, at least if he has a subpar season you’re less likely to lose him to Boston or New York when he’s a free agent in October. You do have the best starting rotation top to bottom in the division though, and that should keep you in the hunt all season if nothing else. I’m also not sold on your offensive prowess from top to bottom. Evidence to support your claims here or just gut feeling and team loyalty?

I agree for the most part on Chicago and Cleveland, but I think both of those teams have some of the biggest health questions to worry about. Cleveland is staking a lot on Wood and Pavano but both of them are half season DL stints waiting to happen. The age of some of their everyday starters is something I’d be sweating too.

I keep waiting for Kansas City to have their cinderella run a la Detroit in 2006 or Tampa in 2008. One of these days they’re going to come out of nowhere and run away with the division and with their young pitchers it could be this year. But then, I thought the same thing last year.

You were way too hard on Detroit’s defense. Aside from the corner outfield spots they’ve got the 1st or 2nd best centerfielder in the division and their infield is probably the best in the division if Everett stays healthy. The only reason Inge didn’t win the gold glove in 2006 and 2007 is because those awards are inappropriately tied to offensive production as well. Polanco is coming off a gold glove season and Cabrera will get better at first now that he’s had some experience. Laird will at least be comparable to Pudge in 2008, the future hall of famer was on the decline and not the Pudge of old. Treanor? Yeah, that kind of sucks. The real achilles heel for Detroit is pitching, but you missed the mark in some of your criticism there as well. I don’t know any Detroit fan who thinks that Lyon is going to be a savior. Most of us see him as another Todd Jones and are hoping against hope that Zumaya is healthy or that Perry looks like Zumaya did in 2006. We know we’re kind of screwed there. I’d also take issue with calling Jackson an unsolid starter. He’s improved every year he’s been in the majors and there’s every reason to expect him to pitch at least 500 this season. If Verlander turns it around we’ll be fine with 1-2-3. Miner and Porcello in the 4 and 5 slots and a questionable Bonderman return on the horizon are concerns, but not as dire as you make it sound.

With all the question marks for every team in the division I really think it’s a 5 horse race. The prediction I would be most comfortable with though would be the White Sox in 5th. Your bias aside, if I had to call the division today, I would give it to you. It’s all about Gardenhire pulling rabbits out of his hat. Never ceases to amaze me how he takes teams that are subpar on paper and leads them to content year in and year out.

by Sutelc on Apr 6, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Other stuff

Yeah, now that I look at it, the Jackson comment was uncalled for. And I was basing my claim that Lyon was seen as a savior on national reports rather than checking Tigers’ blogs. The rotation won’t be as bad as I make it out if Bonderman gets back. But a Verlander, Gallaraga, Miner, Jackson, Robertson rotation is still pretty weak. Four of five teams in the division lack depth in the rotation. What makes Detroit especially weak in the pitching department is the bullpen.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 6, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

My opinions were checked against stats

I’m not saying I’m not biased, but I did check my opinions to make sure the stats backed them up.

For example If you want, you can check out Fan Graphs for data that led to some of these opinions. Center filed is one of them. Or you can read the Fielding bible which I won’t link to, but I will link to a story about it.

There simply was not room to demonstrate many of the claims I make. But I really did try to use objective analysis to make them. In some cases, prior drafts of this had to be revised when I discovered that my initial perceptions were not backed up by stats.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Apr 6, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I think these are some pretty good previews.

I suck for not giving you a hand with these, by the way.

I think the points brought up about Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson are valid, but I’m not too sure they’ve seen what Carlos Gomez can do, either. All three of these guys can move, and all three of them can make plays most center fielders dream of, but what really differentiates these three right now isn’t their defense—it’s their offense. Also, it’s not as though any of us aren’t protective or defensive about our guys. These were good opinions.

I really agree with you on the Royals bullpen. Actually, I would have liked the Twins to go after Soria on a one-year deal as a set-up guy for Nathan…although I’m not sure he would have taken that role.

Aside from the Twins, I really like the Indians this year…although I know there are a lot of people who aren’t sold on them, either. If Minnesota doesn’t take the AL Central this year, I have to believe it’ll be Cleveland.

by Jesse on Apr 6, 2009 6:01 PM EDT reply actions  

When was Soria available on a one year deal?

Are you confusing him with someone else? I wasn’t aware that we could have had Soria…

IMO, as a homer, Minnesota and Cleveland are around the same, 85-90 win teams. That’s assuming that Mauer and Baker play most of the year. I think Cleveland will be right there, but not if Lee regresses in a big way. I’d be concerned about his spring and first start if I were an Indians fan.

Detroit, Chicago and to a lesser degree, KC could be right in the mix, but they need a few more breaks IMO. Detroit needs a lot of pitching, but their defensive improvements should help.

by Adam Peterson on Apr 7, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defense

In all, a pretty good preview here. I’ve got to agree with you, in CF, Gomez is a cut above the rest of the division, although Sizemore and Granderson are very close, IMO. Maybe we see a flip-flop this year, but Gomez was top of the heap in 2008.

That said, I disagree that “The Twins sport the league’s best defense”. Yes, they’re very solid in CF, LF, C (with Mauer), SS and hopefully 3B (healthy Crede), but there are enough question marks (Cuddyer’s range, Delmon wherever/whenever he plays in the field) to knock down a few.

In UZR according to fangraphs, as a team Minnesota was 4th worst in the AL in 2008 at -28.6 runs. Tampa Bay (74.3) and Oakland (41.9) were tops in the AL. I love Span in LF and Crede at 3B, but that’s not enough to make up for a 100+ run gap defensively…

by Adam Peterson on Apr 7, 2009 2:18 PM EDT reply actions  

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Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez, left, and Ubaldo Jimenez, right, celebrate in the dugout after Gonzalez hits his second home run of the game in the sixth inning of a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field in Denver on Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2010. The Rockies won 6-1. (AP Photo/Chris Schneider)

Five Numbers: Carlos Gonzalez's Home Dominance, Baseball's Wave Of Flamethrowers, And More

Washington Nationals' Nyjer Morgan, center, is led off the field after a brawl during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Florida Marlins, Wednesday, Sept. 1, 2010, in Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee) +8 updates

Nyjer Morgan Suspended Eight Games For Recent Infractions, Including Role In Brawl

Philadelphia Phillies' Chase Utley, right, celebrates his grand slam against the Colorado Rockies with teammates, from left, Ben Francisco, Jimmy Rollins and Brian Schneider in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Denver on Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010. The Phillies won 12-11. (AP Photo/Barry Gutierrez)

Phillies Post Nine-Run Seventh Inning, Hold On In Narrow Defeat Of Rockies

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