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Catching Up: Twinkie Town's 2009 Top 10 Prospects

A review of the organization's top ten prospects, as voted by you:  the Twinkie Town faithful.  A full list can be found by scrolling down and checking out the left side content bar.

#10:  Luke Hughes, 3B/DH
Current Team:  Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience:  7 seasons
Age:  24

Hughes has had a great start to the year, batting .277/.378/.505 over his first 101 at-bats.  His five homers give him the team lead, with four coming off southpaws.  In fact, so far this season Hughes has destroyed left-handed pitching.  Unfortunately the fielding doesn't seem to be improving much, as he's already been charged with eight errors.  While it's hard to judge anything of his defense by the 'E' stats, committing eight of them already isn't a good thing.  Minor League Splits values his third base defense at -4 runs against league average.  Right now his value is still all offense, and because he's a fly-ball hitter he's going to have to start making better contact if he's going to stay productive.  A 15.6% line-drive rate doesn't do him favors, and he's popping up too often.

#9:  Deolis Guerra, RHP
Current Team:  Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience:  4 seasons
Age:  20

Guerra's had an up and down start to the season, having had the bottom drop out in two of his starts.  He's a ground-ball pitcher, but at times he can be susceptible to getting rocked, particularly by right-handed hitters.  The fastball isn't there right now, which was supposed to be a big plus.  It's early, and he's only just turned 20 in April, but he needs to turn some sort of a corner and get the number of base runners under control.

#8:  Tyler Robertson, LHP
Current Team:  Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience:  4 seasons
Age:  21

Robertson, like Guerra, has been sabotaged by a pair of bad starts.  Also like Guerra he's getting a lot of ground balls this year, which should do him favors if his defense can convert them into outs.  There will always be worries about those mechanics, but as long as he produces good results those mechanics will continue to take a back seat.  His low line-drive rate (14.1%) suggests some luck by the hitters (.310 BABIP), but continuing to pitch well should balance those numbers out.

#7:  Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Current Team:  Rochester Red Wings (AAA)
Minor League Experience:  6 seasons
Age:  23

Anthony is proving he belongs at triple-A after a somewhat curious promotion late last year.  Good strikeout rate, miniscule home run rate, good walk rate...he's earned the 1.70 ERA.  Even the 2.85 FIP insists he's pitching well.  Right now he's having success against hitters on both sides of the dish, and an impressive split is how effective he's been when his team is behind.  As a starter that's an issue because he's already allowed his team to fall into a hole, but that's going to happen.  Besides, to this point he's been good overall regardless.  Being able to stymie the opposition in order to give your offense a chance is a good thing.  If any one of the Minnesota starting rotation faulters, Swarzak should be the replacement.

#6:  Jose Mijares, LH RP
Current Team:  Minnesota Twins
Minor League Experience:  6 seasons
Age:  24

The first (and only) member of the list to make it to The Bigs, Mijares had a short stint in Rochester in April.  Over 6.1 innings he struck out four, walked one and allowed a pair of hits.  Nobody scored.  Since joining the Twins he's retired eight on strikes in just six innings, but on occasion has trouble locating his fastball.  His last two outings have produced runs, the last being horribly painful.  Luckily he's still one of the bullpen's best options, even though that statement is all relative right now, which means he's not in danger of being sent away any time soon.

#5:  Wilson Ramos, C
Current Team:  New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience:  4 seasons
Age:  21

Luckily Ramos' value is defensive, and he's a catcher, which means the .269/.289/.344 line isn't causing anyone to doubt his potential.  Still, he's generally hit better than this in his time on the farm, so hopefully he'll be able to adjust to the harder competition he's seeing at double-A.  He's done a bit better over the last 10 days, pounding out a .324 average.  In the minor league depth chart, he sits behind only Drew Butera.  And Jose Morales, if you want to count him.  Which we probably should.

#4:  Angel Morales, OF
Current Team:  Beloit Snappers (A)
Minor League Experience:  3 seasons
Age:  19

It's been a slow start for Angel, who's still striking out at least once a game but is doing it so far this year without the production.  The .587 OPS is very un-Morales as we know him to this point.  Versus righties or lefties it's all been a struggle.  We'll lean on his age and lack of experience in his first experience out of the Rookie Leagues, and hopefully as the season progresses we see some positive steps.  Right now, from how things look, I wouldn't expect him to make it to Fort Myers before next year.

#3:  Aaron Hicks, OF
Current Team:  Currently in extended spring training
Minor League Experience:  1 season
Age:  19

Hicks is getting a little extra work in, which isn't a bad thing.  The organization is stocked with talent at the outfield position at this point in time, which allows him the luxury of being able to have this time without feeling pressured to get onto a squad and put up impressive numbers like he did last summer.  Most likely he'll repeat a short season in the Rookie League, barring an injury or a performance so bad that someone gets the axe.  Still, after hitting .314/.401/.479 for the GCL Twins last summer, he'll be one to follow closely once he starts playing.

#2:  Ben Revere, OF
Current Team:  Fort Myers Miracle (A+)
Minor League Experience:  3 seasons
Age:  21

The speedy contact hitter is already off to a good start, reaching base at a .377 clip in his first sting at high-A ball.  The slugging is way down, at just .350, which might be closer to what you'd expect of a guy with his tools than the .461 and .497 numbers he posted in '07 and '08 in lower levels.  He's still an extreme ground-ball hitter, and he's hitting a bit over his head versus southpaws so far; a .417 BABIP with onlly a 12.5% line drive rate just isn't sustainable, even for a guy with his speed.  Still, the tools are there, and he's already stolen 15 bases in 29 games.  If he can leg out a few more doubles, which he likely will as he adjusts to better pitching, his numbers will improve and we might even see him in New Britain by the time summer ends.

#1:  Danny Valencia, 3B
Current Team:  New Britain Rock Cats (AA)
Minor League Experience:  6 seasons
Age:  24

Like his hot-corner counterpart in Rochester, Valencia is off to a hot start.  The walks are there, the power is there, and so is the defense.  He's a bit of a ground-ball hitter, but when he gets ahold of one, he really gets ahold of it.  His three homers in 84 at-bats aren't impressive, but they tie him for the squad lead and he has plenty of other extra-base hits to supplement his production.  Right now all the power is coming against right-handed pitchers, so if he learns to hit southpaws a bit better, his numbers will go through the roof.  The line of .298/.404/.524 is fantastic, and if Hughes gets a call at any point this season it wil mean a promotion for Valencia as well.  It's been a slow but steady climb for Daniel, but he seems to be almost a sure shot to breach the majors next summer if not this September.  He's a great choice for the organization's number one prospect.

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hmmm

I guess us fans don’t know as much as we thought.

Carlos Gutierrez is probably a top 3 twins prospect as of now, with Swarzak going higher as well.

by hotshotschamp on May 13, 2009 8:30 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My ranking right now

1. Gutierrez
2. Revere
3. Hicks
4. Swarzak
5. Valencia
6. Ramos
7. Morales
8. Mulvey
9, Robertson

I guess Mulvey and Gutierrez need some coverage. I’ll put them on the agenda for my next minor league focus piece.
10, Guerra

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 13, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'd go

 1. Hicks- 19 years of age, twins are slow we all know, but this kid has most upside of anyone in the farm

2. Guttierez- Has a 4.5 Ground ball to fly out ratio, hitters hitting .136 off him and he’s been flat out dominant with that sinker.

3. Ben Revere – May never hit for power yes…but he brings a lot to the table

4. Anthony Swarzak- Having a great year this year at AAA, consitency is nice to see out of him.

5. Wilson Ramos- May never have a .300 batting avg, but he’s a great defensive catcher with some pop in his bat, who could make a valuable addition to a MLB club. Seems like a very safe play.

6-10 in no order = Valencia, Morales, Hughes, Slama, Mulvey

by hotshotschamp on May 13, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

1 and 2

Pretty much have to be Revere and Hicks. Whichever order you feel. Personally I like Revere better, but if you like Hicks better I wouldn’t argue.

stop by Waving the Wheat (http://wavingthewheat.wordpress.com/) and The College Hockey Blog (http://thecollegehockeyblog.wordpress.com/)

by fetch9 on May 13, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Three tiers of prospects

You almost have to put Hicks, Revere and Ramos 1-2-3, in whatever order.

With Ramos, compared to Valencia or Gutierrez, while he may not project as a .300 hitter in the majors, .275-.280 with 15-20 HR and great defense makes him a great prospect. With Mauer in the majors, it’s quite possible that Ramos would have more value in a trade this offseason (Boston?) than he might have to the Twins organization.

Gutierrez, Swarzak, Valencia, Morales, Slama and Mulvey form that second tier of prospects.

In the third tier, I have Hughes, Hunt, Guerra, Robertson. Guys with great upside, but major flaws and question marks as well.

by Adam Peterson on May 13, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hmm

I guess I don’t think revere really is that much more of a spect than a swarzak or Gutierrez.

Swarzak has a era in the 1’s in AAA and is being very consitent. Gutierrez is putting up silly numbers and hasn’t allowed HR yet in minor league pitching.

I know all about revere last year in Beloit, however this year, his average isn’t the same (naturally) but also his extra base hits are almost non-existant, he needs to take more walks and is getting thrown out fairly frequently.

I like Revere don’t get me wrong, but I don’t view him as a cant miss sure thing.

I equate him to a swarzak or gutierrez prospect …i view them as middle of the order pitchers and i view Revere as a nice player for the twins, but not maybe a dynamic player.

I think Hicks is the one player in our system who if the cards fall right can be dynamic.

by hotshotschamp on May 13, 2009 1:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Revere

A good case can be made that he’s third behind Hicks and Ramos. At this point, we have no prospects who can be considered a “sure thing”. Talk to me in a couple years when Revere, Hicks, Morales, etc get to the higher levels.

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I rank propsects a little differently

It’s based on the probability that player will have a solid career, or better, in the majors. Gutierrez right now is the surest thing the Twins have. Other prospects have more upside, but injuries or a simple lack of development can prevent upside from developing.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 13, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

clarification

I’m surprised. You think that Gutierrez is more likely to have a solid career in the majors then Swarzak, even though Swarzak is at AAA? I’d have to put the odds on Swarzak making the majors at 3x that of Guttierez, and probably even higher than he makes an impact. Gutierrez has a lot of jumps he still has to make, any of which may not happen.

by snolls on May 13, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll feel better about Guitierrez when he is playing against stiffer competition.

by guinness junky on May 13, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just basing it on Mauer's scouting report

He said he could consistently get major leaguers out now. Swarzak will go through the typical adjustment period of overthrowing and getting hit hard before he learns to slow down and not try to overthrow. Gutierrez won’t need to because he works off the sinker, which requires an easier motion.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 13, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What does Mauer know?

He only played at high A-ball for what, a week? ;)

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good job on the update Jesse

But you are far too kind to the organization about Hicks. It’s frankly a little silly that they have 23 year olds in Beloit while he languishes with 10 times the talent. If he spends the season at E-ton…well, I think that’s just a waste of time. I just don’t love that they have 2 rookie league teams.

As for the others—I like Revere still, but his upside is just so limited because of the lack of power that I’m not sure what he becomes. It might be that he’s a 4th OF with speed rather than someone you can run out there everyday, but you can say that about a lot of guys.

Gutierrez needs to move up. AA is a breaking point for a lot of prospects. Gotta see if his sinker can get out better players conisistently. I’m not entirely convinced, mostly because he misses so few bats at A ball. It’’s tough to succeed that way.

Swarzak is really pitching well, though I’d like to see more missed bats from him as well. I think he has a career, but it might take him a while to adjust when he gets his chance.

Valencia is really the pleasant suprise for me…I wasn’t nearly as high on him as many, but he’s doing well. The plate discipline looks better, and the overall line is good. At some point, they have to decide if they are going to punt on Hughes as an infielder (which seems inevitable at this point) and move Valencia up. He’ll be 25 by the end of the year, and if he’s going to be ready by next season, it would be good if he got some AAA time this year.

by Eric in Madison on May 13, 2009 3:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good points

IMO:

Hicks: I’d prefer to see him at Beloit as well. Maybe there’s an opening and he goes right to Beloit after EST, a la Revere.

Revere: I’m not concerned about the lack of power, as long as the on base skills remain. I don’t need my #1 or #2 guys to hit homeruns, I need them to get on base on front of Mauer and Morneau.

Gutierrez: Call him up to NB at the break.

Swarzak: If he keeps this up through the ASB, I’d call him up to pitch in the bullpen. You limit his innings, plus he’s probably better than at least a couple guys we have right now.

Valencia: He’ll get his show next year. His performance (as well as Crede’s) will determine whether we bring Crede back.

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My Prospect List:

1. Aaron Hicks – Has the most upside in my opinion, and at 19 years old, he has still not filled out yet. It will be fun to watch this kid come up through the farm system and eventually onto the Twins by 2013 at the latest I should think.

2. Ben Revere – Has many tools, especially speed and contact. Younger version of Denard Span with a bit more giddy up in his first step.

3. Carlos Gutierrez – This kid is just fascinating to watch! He will become a great stopper in our bullpen (but he needs to hurry up cause we could use him right now!)

4. Danny Valencia – lots of power, lots of walks, great defense. Can’t wait to see this kid manning third next year or in 2011.

5. Anthony Swarzak – This kid is ripping up in AAA ball right now and if the Twins starters (especially Baker) keep on running into trouble in the middle innings, we could see him donning the Twins uniform before too long.

by 33MorneauMVP on May 14, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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