Gammons: Twins On Prowl for Bullpen Help

by Jesse on May 17, 2009 6:59 AM EDT in News Comment 12 comments

In his latest blog entry, Peter Gammons lists Minnesota as one of four teams "on the prowl for relievers". Who does he list as possible targets?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Huston Street	0-1	17	0	0	0	5	0	15.1	16	7	7	3	3	18	4.11	1.24

Street's doing a lot of things right this year, in spite of the ERA and hits allowed. He's stranding more than 80% of his base runners, he's not giving up an inordinate number of line drives and he's still striking people out. His issue has been the home run ball, with a very high percentage of his fly balls ending up over the fence. Still, it's just three home runs and considering the sample size things could even out pretty quickly.

Still just 25, Street is making $4.5 million this season. He'll be arbitration eligible for the third time following 2009. The Rockies will likely ask for a significant return for the talented young arm.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Danys Baez	2-1	14	0	0	0	0	0	21.1	11	5	5	2	9	17	2.11	.94

Baez is currently a study in playing over one's head. He's still too liberal in handing out walks, but his BABIP is a meager .182 thanks in parts to a 9.1 line-drive percentage and a 65.5 percent ground-ball rate. It'd be hard for anyone to make it much easier for his defense to convert batted balls into outs. The great fastball is still there and he's always been a moderate strikeout threat, so even if he's playing better than he's historically been, Baez would still be an improvement over the Twins' current bullpen options.

At 31, Baez is a seasoned veteran. He's in the final year of a deal he signed prior to '07, making $5.5 million. If the Orioles choose to trade him, Baltimore and the suitor would need to work out who'd pay Baez his $500,000 trade bonus.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jose Valverde	0-1	8	0	0	0	2	2	8.0	7	5	5	3	3	11	5.63	1.25

Valverde's got a wicked fastball that, if he can control it, is good enough to be relied upon a vast majority of the time as long as he simply shows his other pitches once in a while. The main issue with Valeverde is that he's currently on the disabled list, recovering from multiple hematomas (collection of blood outside blood vessels, usually resulting from internal bleeding) in his calf.

He's just turned 30, but he's still just over five years of service time. If he can come back healthy and pitch the rest of this season he should be able to reach the full six years required to make him a free agent. While he did some throwing on Thursday, he's still a fairly substantial trade risk once off the disabled list, I'm not sure what Houston could ask for in return, but it couldn't be much.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Russ Springer	0-1	17	0	0	0	0	1	16.0	17	5	4	2	7	18	2.25	1.50

Springer is actually a guy I wanted the Twins to target over the winter. He's been a very effective flyball arm over the last few seasons, and even with the struggling Athletics he's putting together another fine season. With a fastball, cutter, curve and occasional slider he has plenty to offer opposing hitters, and has so far found a way to strand nearly 90% of his base runners. That's just astonishing.

While he's 40, Springer is still a top target. He's due to make $3.3 million this season, with an additional $300,000 in appearance incentives. If the A's continue to flounder there won't be much they can gain from trading him, but if a lot of teams come to call there's no telling whether he'd be a prospect guy or simply a take-his-salary guy.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - John Grabow	1-0	18	0	0	0	0	1	17.0	23	11	10	1	9	15	5.29	1.88

What's interesting about Grabow is that if someone could show him how to not walk people, he'd be an incredible bullpen presence. He strikes guys out, he usually strands a fair percentage of his base runners and he isn't abnormally susceptible to the long ball. But he does offer up the walks, and it hurts him. This season he's been a little unlucky in regards to balls in play, but he still shouldn't be a top target on this list. The tools are there, but the performance is shaky.

Grabow is 30, and the Pirates are paying him $2.3 million in what is his last arbitration-eligible season. He'll likely hit the free agent market in November, and I'd be surprised if he came back to Pittsburgh. If anyone calls the Pirates for Grabow, they'll probably listen and take what they can get.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Manny Delcarmen	1-1	16	0	0	0	0	0	17.2	16	5	2	0	8	14	1.02	1.36

Gammons insists the Red Sox might be willing to move Manny for the right price, which would be an impact hitter. He also says Delcarmen might be able to close in the National League. Both of those things cross the Twins off the list of potential trade partners pretty quickly.

If you're Bill Smith, are you looking at any of the guys on this list? If so, what are your trade proposals?

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If I'm me?

If I’m me, I get any of these guys I can get without giving up too much as soon as possible.

If I’m Bill Smith I probably wait until August and trade a dollar for Neal Cotts.

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by AdamOnFirst on May 17, 2009 7:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How has our bullpen performed relative to last year?

(2008 wasn’t all that great itself, but the comparison is useful)

So far in 2009, the bullpen has a 5.52 ERA / 5.31 FIP. In 2008, the bullpen had a 3.91 ERA / 4.26 FIP. So we’ve been about as unlucky this year as we were lucky last year, about a half run swing right there.

The huge jump (over a run) in FIP is more disturbing. It’s driven primarily by a big jump in walks (4.01 HR/9 up from 3.26), which is simply unsat, and a jump in gopher balls (1.50 HR/9 up from 1.08). I believe the homeruns will balance out a bit (13.3% HR/FB this year, up from 11.6%), but the bullpen is giving up MANY more fly balls this year (41.2% FB versus 34.2%), so the HR/9 and FIP are going to be elevated.

Without a change in personnel, maybe the BB/9 drops a bit, but that’s only if Breslow, Crain, etc find the zone. I could see the HR/9 dropping down into the 1.3 range as HR/FB regresses, but until we start throwing more ground balls, it’s going to stay up there. By my calculations, the HR/FB regression would knock about 0.3 runs off the FIP, bringing it to about 5.00.

In other words (as we all suspect), the bullpen performance does not appear to be driven by luck. The guys have to start pitching better (walk fewer, induce more GB) in order to improve.

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

YEah, and

Yeah, and it’s probably important to remember that the bullpen got much worse as the year went on and they (Matt Guerrier) tired. I’d bet the team’s inherited runners scoring this year is a disaster as well.

by AdamOnFirst on May 17, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

They started falling apart once we went on that really long road trip. Somewhat due to overuse, but it really hurt when we didn’t have a good 8th inning option. We ended up burning through a bunch of guys on 6-7-8 inning matchups and pretty much burned everyone.

This year? Nathan is still solid (though not spectacular), and I’m comfortable with Mijares in the 8th. Guerrier seems much better in his 2007 6-7 inning bridge role.

Everyone else, yuck. I hate to say it, but I miss Dennys Reyes. Let’s see who we get with that pick.

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Options

Huston Street is a pretty attractive option. I’d talk to Colorado, see what they would want in return. Would the Rockies trade Street straight up for Delmon Young? I’d think long and hard about that one. I’d also think long and hard about selling high on Perkins. We’d be taking a gamble trading arguably our best pitcher so far this season, and if I were Colorado I wouldn’t want him (bad fit for Coors Field, doesn’t strike out guys, too many FB), but I’d at least have the discussion. If I were the Rockies, I’d prefer Blackburn and his sinker…

Elsewhere on the list, Dalcarmen is a nice option, but we don’t have impact bats we can give up. Unless Boston would take Harris, Buscher or Casilla for depth, I don’t think we’re doing anything there.

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not totally opposing to getting rid of one of our outfielders.

I know it’s not like the Twins, but it could kill two birds with one stone.

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by Andersklasen on May 17, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Get creative...

Depending on what we got in return, I’d even be willing to work in Gomez. If I’m Colorado, the thought of Gomez ranging the largest CF in baseball (next to Fowler in LF) would be very attractive. We’d need something in addition to Street, IMO.

Here’s a trade I’d consider (there are others):

Carlos Gomez (and Alexi Casilla?)
for
Huston Street and Eric Young Jr. (or Ian Stewart?)

Casilla and Gomez would step right into Colorado’s lineup, giving them a ton of speed. We could absorb their loss, given depth in OF and 2B. The loss of Gomez’ defense would hurt, though…

Street would solidify the bullpen, immediately stepping into the 8th inning role and leaving Mijares for other high leverage situations. Dickey, Breslow or Ayala would go.

EY Jr: Great speed, and good on base skills and a little pop. Switch hitter, would be a nice fit between Span and Mauer in the #2 hole. Defensive questions, so that could be a problem.

Then again, from the Twins perspective, Young-Casilla for Street-EY would make more sense. I don’t see Delmon improving his defense enough, so he’s got to become an elite slugger to make him a solid contributor. With Gomez, he simply needs to become a MLB-average hitter to have very good value (in the 4 WAR range) as a CF. Gomez has some distance to reach MLB-average status, but it’s a shorter trip than Delmon becoming elite, especially given Delmon’s lack of OBP skills.

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shoulda woulda coulda

They should have signed Cruz before K.C. did, they had a couple of months to pull it off. Also Reyes was around a while. They only way I would trade anybody to Colorado is if somehow they recieved Atkins in return along with a pitcher. Lets face it Crede is awesome but he is going to outplay his stay here if he keeps hitting homeruns. I would not mess with the starting rotation at all though especially Perkins who is a Minnesota guy. Gomez is fun to watch but really his batting skills are minor league, he is not even a strong bunter. I do not think the Twinks are ready to give up on Casilla quite yet though he is hitting 385 in triple A and when he is on is better than Tolbert.

by jmedin on May 17, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No interest in Atkins

FA after this season, bad defense, expensive, not hitting…whats there to like?

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely nothing.

I’m happy to wait on Valencia or Hughes for third base, I have no interest in trading for a third baseman right now.

And in my blogging career, I’m pretty sure I’ve never said that.

by Jesse on May 17, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

still seems likley

that we will keep it in house. I like Gammons, but he rarely comes up with a scoop when it comes to trades. I cant see the Twins making a move for any of those pitchers, or rather I cant see any of those teams really feeling like they need to make a move at this point.

How many May trades go down each year?

by guinness junky on May 17, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yep

I like to run through the scenarios though…

I’d bring up Henn and get rid of Dickey, Breslow or Ayala (in that order). Ayala’s actually pitched the best of the three (a case where the numbers do not jive with my eyes), but that’s not saying much.

Ayala: 3.90 FIP (second best on the team!)
Dickey: 5.72 FIP
Breslow: 7.72 FIP

Even though Breslow has been terrible, I’d drop Dickey first. At least Breslow has shown us he can be very good. Dickey, well, he throws a knuckleball, which is supposed to be lights out indoors or something.

by Adam Peterson on May 17, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs