Do the Twins have the worst bullpen in baseball?
by Jon Marthaler on May 18, 2009 9:00 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
21 comments
We Twins backers are all rather frustrated with the state of the bullpen; the late-inning guys have lost three games in a row, and have generally been awful this season. But how bad are things, really? Is the Twins bullpen as bad as we think, by the numbers - and in comparison to the rest of the league?
+ Test #1: Losses, saves, and blown saves.
Minnesota's 'pen has blown seven saves this year, but that's only good for a tie for seventh. The Nationals relievers have blown an astonishing 11 save opportunities - which is especially impressive, given that Washington has only six saves on the year.
Unfortunately, there are two other teams with just six saves - and Minnesota's one of them. Joe Nathan is 6-8 in save opportunities this year, and the rest of the bullpen has blown five other games. This 46% conversion rate is third worst in the majors, behind only Houston (41%) and Washington (35%).
Speaking of blowing games, the Twins bullpen has lost six games - but that's not even close to the Nationals (11 losses) or the Angels (10 losses, including seven blown saves.) Minnesota is tied for ninth.
+ Test #2: OPS Against
On-base percentage plus slugging percentage is a pretty good stand-in for run production. It would make sense that the bullpen with the worst OPS against is therefore the worst in baseball.
Here once again, it's hard to beat the Nationals bullpen, which has an OPS against of .849. Houston is second-worst at .842. The Twins, though, are right in the running; their OPS against of .824 is seventh-worst in the big leagues.
Other candidates for "Worst Bullpen in the American League" also emerge, including Cleveland (.838 OPS against, 7/15 in save opportunities), and the Yankees (.837, 7/12).
+ Test #3: Fielding-Independent Pitching
Forgetting about defense for a second, we look at pure pitching statistics, using the sabrematrician's favorite, FIP. And as you might expect, the same candidates fall out on the bottom of the league: New York (5.87) is worst, followed by Texas (5.62) and Houston (5.47). Cleveland is fourth-worst at 5.39, but then comes our Twins at 5.31. (They're even worse than Washington, which is at 5.19).
+ And so, our best conclusions from the numbers...
The numbers don't lie: The Twins bullpen is terrible on a number of levels. They can't hold a lead, nor can they get anybody out.
That said, things are worse by far in Washington, and probably in Houston as well. And fans in Cleveland and New York have reasons to be miffed as well.
Of course, a look at the standings probably would be enough to anger those fans: Cleveland and Washington are in last place. Houston is barely ahead of the Pirates. And the Yankees are 4.5 games back... and would be much worse off, if it weren't for three games against Minnesota's relievers.
And so, our conclusion: the Twins do not have the worst bullpen in the major leagues. But it's close.
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Oh, thank goodness,
we don’t have the most worthless heinous pitchers in baseball.
That warms me like a spot of sunshine.
by Evan Nelson on May 18, 2009 9:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
At least now, when discussing the bullpen, you’ll have to use the phrase “almost the worst in the league,” rather than the alternative.
Silver linings!
by Jon Marthaler on May 18, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Make changes
Ayala, Dickey…can anyone from the minors be equally as bad?
Last legs, Breslow. Could anyone in the minors be as bad (bring back Duensing).
Is Jesse optionable? Have him work out his mess in the minors. Is he worth spending time to see if he comes abck or not? And the Twins have two more reclamation projects in the works, Boof and Neshek, although I think Pat may still have an option and could start 2010 in the minors, if need be.,
But…it’s mroe than the bullpen. The starters are hot and cold. They throw great, they have a bad inning. They throw crapo, they have more bad innings.
And the line-up. Three victories in New York if someone would score (33 left-on-base at least, 25 in scoring positiona t least).
Speaks of line-up construction, bench strength and such. Tolbert is not a #2. Neither is Cuddyer…maybe time to go Kuebl in the 2 slot. Will anyone take Young off our hands? Yet, still doesn’t address three weakness, second, short and centerfield. You can have one, maybe two guys hitting around .200, But not three prime players. And Crede is right where we kinda expect him to be. Time to free Harris for a fulltime slot (second or short and take the defense hit). Any bench bats in the minors?
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on May 18, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The thing is...
at least from a FIP standpoint, Ayala has a 3.91 FIP, second best on the team, to…
Jose Mijares (3.31)
Joe Nathan (3.97) is just behind.
Weird.
by Adam Peterson on May 18, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Inherited runners
Four out of nine inherited runners have scored off of Ayala. Plus, it’s astonishing that his WHIP is 1.79 and his FIP is 3.91. That’s some kind of anomaly. But I suppose it makes sense. FIP is based on walks, Ks and homers. He’s had a decent number of Ks, and not that many walks or homers. He’s just surrendered line drive after line drive on sinkers down the middle of the plate. Guys are hitting .946 against him. That’s not good, no matter how god a guy’s FIP looks.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 18, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His WHIP
Is driven by walks (which are included in FIP) and hits.
The hits are driven by the .385 BABIP, which in turn is driven by a 23.1% line drive rate. Quite bad, but this doesn’t project to .385.
However, it does project to a .351 BABIP, indicating some bad luck, but not as much as I’ve been claiming…pretty much two “unlucky” hits.
Also, Ayala’s FIP is artificially low, considering his 5.3% HR/FB. Normalizing with an extra HR increases his FIP by about a run.
So yes, he stinks too…
by Adam Peterson on May 18, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Firstinning.com
Actually has him with a BABIP of .415. SO some of it is luck, like that fly ball Cuddyer just misjudged
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 18, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, there's no doubt that the bullpen
has been problematic, but it obviously seems worse because of the 3 games against the Yanks that they lost late, some of which was the bullpen’s fault, some of which was not. Right now, Nathan and Mijares are/have been reliable—and Nathan blew the first Yankee game, which if they had won things would look different.
As to yesterday—things were in some disarray because of the 11 innings the game before and the lack of off-days, but asking Craig Breslow to get Rodriguez out there is just asking someone to do something they cannot do. It isn’t Breslow’s fault—he’s actually faced more RHB than LHB this year. (His numbers aren’t great aganist either, mostly because he’s walking lefties way too much, but it’s clear he’s capable of getting lefites out. Not righties. He’s a LOOGY).
Guerrier has been OK, really. He isn’t a great pitcher—his stuff isn’t and never has been enough to really be a shutdown guy, but he’s not the problem. The real issue has been Crain. I’ve been saying for a couple of years that Crain is a good pitcher, that he can handle big roles and he’s been somewhat unlucky. It’s becoming harder to maintain that position as the poor outings mount. At some point, you have to get outs. I still like him, but it’s becoming harder to justify.
And that’s really the issue. Every team has a bad reliever or 2 as their 11th and 12th members of the staff. Really, once they got it sorted that Alaya couldn’t be trusted with close games, and understood what Dickey was, and got over their (justified) snit with Mijares, they aren’t the problem. I really think Crain is, much to my dismay.
WIth Nathan and Mijares as reliable guys, Guerrier as someone you can get an inning or two out of in reasonably close games in 6th-7th innings, and Breslow as a specialist, you need one more reliable arm to pitch 7th-8th innings in close/tied games and you’d be more or less covered. Sadly, Crain hasn’t been able to fill that role. And Nathan hasn’t pitched enough.
by Eric in Madison on May 18, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mijares
Sorry, he is a long way from being “reliable.” The sample size is too small, for one thing.
And if Matsui would not have bailed him yesterday by swinging at ball 4, he would be the goat today instead of Crain.
by wcooley on May 18, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
The point is that he has been reliable—or if you prefer, he’s had good results. The article I was responding to is about how bad the bullpen has been so far this year. My point is that Mijares hasn’t been part of that problem—he’s been good.
I’m not suggesting that you can just count on 5 years of excellent relief work from him based on his 11 innings so far.
by Eric in Madison on May 18, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A little different opinion on Guerrier...
Nathan and Mijares – agree. They are our two “reliable” options.
Ayala – see above. Better FIP than Nathan, but wicked unlucky BABIP and LOB%. Somewhat due to a high LD% though.
Guerrier – outperforming his 5.11 FIP, largely due to a .184 BABIP. Prone to the gopher ball so far, perhaps a bit unlucky there.
Dickey – 5.72 FIP, 5.50 BB/9. Even with a .370 BABIP, he’s outperforming his 5.72 FIP.
Crain / Breslow – Horrible control, 5.73 and 7.82 BB/9. Yuck.
by Adam Peterson on May 18, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mijares is the eighth-inning guy
I don’t worry about him or Nathan. It’s the other five guys who are struggling, in the following order:
Craig Beslow: He’s turned into his old self—a nibbling, niggling AAAA reliever. Likely upgrade: Sean Henn.
Luis Ayala: Tommy John surgery does not work as well for sinker ball guys. He hasn’t pitched well since he went under the knife. This year is no exception. Likely upgrade: Juan Morillo.
R.A. Dickey He is not a major league pitcher. I understand the rubber arm thing. But if you think is rubber arm will get outs in key situations, you’re kidding yourself. Just look at his perfomrance when coming into games with guys on base. His raw numbers look a lot better when you don’t factor in inherited runners. Then they’re just awful. Likely replacement: Anthony Swarzak or Kevin Mulvey.
If those three guys are replaced by better guys and we can develop some stability, Gardy can begin to put guys in roles where they will tend to thrive.
Matt Guerrier He has good stuff and command, he just doesn’t react well to pitching every day. He needs to be used every other day at most, for those two-inning opportunities where a starter burns out in the sixth.
Jesse Crain This guy is a mystery to me. He has closer stuff. He has good command. He just loses focus and leaves pitches in the middle of the plate, where the other hitters can drive the ball no matter how hard it’s thrown. My hope is if you get him into a role where he will thrive, say down by two runs or more late in the game, he can get his confidence back and gradually work back into key situations late in the game.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 18, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In my estimation
Crain’s issues began when they tried to convert him from a blazing fastball guy to a sinker type who relies on the movement of his pitches. I just don’t think Crain trusts his pitches when he gets in jams.
by guinness junky on May 18, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With these guys
I’m willing to give Breslow more time to work things out. He was so good last year in his role. I’d like to see him play through it.
As far as Ayala and Dickey, they’ve been given their opportunities. If Dickey could throw that knuckleball for a strike I’d want to give him more time too, but he can’t locate it.
Honestly I’m not sure Sean Henn and Juan Morillo would do any better, but I’m certainly not opposed to giving them the chance. Not after seeing this bullpen fall apart as many times as it has.
by Jesse on May 18, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd replace Dickey first
with Sean Henn. Give Morillo a bit more time in AAA to make sure he can stay in the zone for more than a week or two. Swarzak is pitching himself into a long relief / 6th starter role very quickly.
by Adam Peterson on May 18, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't not feel better knowing
that the Twins bullpen is not as bad as the Nationals and Astros…
If this team is going to compete for another division (and I think they could do more with a solid pen) the front office is going to have to show some leadership and doing something about the pen.
The bullpen is quickly becoming, if not already become a joke.
by caluofmn on May 18, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alternatives
What is more important is looking at our alternatives. The Twins need to look at using their minor league prospects in the bullpen. They did it with Garza, Perkins and Santana and it worked out great. They should look to do the same with Duensing, Swarzak and Jones. Then they should look to the minor league relievers, like Slama and Delaney. A number of other people on this site would be better to evaluate the potential of the Rochester relievers, but at this point, it seems like its time to give Keppel and Henn opportunities. They are playing well at AAA, so they need to prove themselves in the big leagues, or ship them out, since they are just blocking others, like Slama and Delaney.
by snolls on May 18, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see the Twins talk to Oakland about Russ Springer.
He’s very effective and wouldn’t cost much. He’s lower profile than another external fix, like Huston Street or Manny Delcarmen. And I don’t care if he’s 40, he gets the job done.
by Jesse on May 18, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
our bullpen can't be THAT bad...
yes, we may have lost quite av few games recently, but how the heck can we win, when we can’t drive ant runs in with the bases loaded. there were something like eleven men stranded on base during Saturday’s loss to the Yankees. if the bullpen is as bad as everyone keeps saying it is, would have most certainly lost those games in New York by more than one or two runs.
by tipper on May 20, 2009 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
All parts of the team
The bullpen has blown games, the rotation has had a few early showers, and the lineup has left a bunch on base. We can credit the entire team for being three games below .500
by Adam Peterson on May 23, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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