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The Front Page and the Front Office

As I write, the two pieces at the top of the front page are Jesse crabbing about the offense and the lineup, and Jon asking just how bad the bullpen is.  That got me to thinking about the choices the front office has made in building this team over the past couple of years.  I don't know that I have any overarching conclusions, but I thought it was worthwhile to try to sort through what's happened and where we think we are. 

Star-divide

When Bill Smith took over after the 2007 season, there were several issues facing the club.  They had just completed a disappointing season that had centered around a weak offense that suffered from a lack of star power (Joe Mauer missed some games and didn't have a great year, Justin Morneau was down some as well) and poor secondary play especially from the bench and such nominal starters as Jeff Cirillo and Nick Punto

The star-power wasn't such a problem--Mauer and Morneau weren't going anywhere.  It was clear that the team had significant holes, however, and it was exacerbated by the impending free agencies of Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva.  It was further clear that the team was in the process of deciding the future of the team's best player, Johan Santana. The team desperately needed to upgrade the offense--particularly third base and and left field where a parade of less than mediocrities had played--Nick Punto, Jason Tyner, Jeff Cirillo (nominally the DH, but Jason Kubel was the future there), and second base where they had traded Luis Castillo for reasons that weren't entirely clear and plugged in an overmatched Alexi Casilla.  They also obviously needed a centerfielder to replace Hunter on the assumption that he was going to leave.

There was a massive flurry of activity in the off-season following the 2007 season.  They (correctly, IMO) let Hunter and Silva both walk.  To solve the infield problems, they signed Mike Lamb and Adam Everett, both formerly Astros, both with durability problems, both marginal starters. To sovle the left field/DH hole, they acquired Craig Monroe.  Then they made 2 big trades.  Recognizing that they needed power and young hitting, they made the Matt Garza/Delmon Young trade.  There were people who thought that Young was overrated, but it was generally well recieved.  One of the problems was that they also gave up their starting shortstop (Jason Bartlett), who never seemed to get respect from the powers that be.  Then they made the big Santana trade, which among other things gave them a center field option to replace Hunter.

OK, the point of this wasn't to review.  Here's what I take from this flurry of activity:  there was a lot, and there was significant risk taking in one sense (trading away Garza, trading Santana), but ultimately, there was significant risk aversion in terms of money and expectations.  They didn't REALLY solve SS or 3B, they stopgapped with guys who, if they failed, well, its not that big a suprise.  They didn't REALLY look for a big hitter for DH (Frank Thomas), they got Monroe, who, if he couldn't hit, well, he couldn't hit before.  These guys were all cheap, and they all played like it. 

On the trade front, they traded 2 guys who they had crabbed about despite their talent--Garza and Bartlett, for the talented but mercurial Young.  So far, not good.  Young has not gotten better in 2 seasons.  He's the same player now that he was a rookie. Then there was the Santana deal.  I know this is going to chap some hides, and I know I can't "know" what other offers there were, but this was mishandled, and that isn't just in retrospect.  Despite their protestations, it was clear they were going to trade him.  The package they got...here's the problem: they got exactly nobody who they could be reasonably close to sure would actually have a significant major league career.  Carlos Gomez was talented but hadn't dominated, or even really been very good, in the minors.  Philip Humber was hurt and never got his stuff back.  Kevin Mulvey was a limited stuff guy, and Deolis Guerra was so freaking young he could have turned into anything.  Frankly, a year later, and the exact same things can be said about these guys. 

This past off-season, there was much less activity.  After a season in which essentially none of the previous seasons' moves actually worked, it appeared that Smith became gunshy.  The bullpen had been a problem in 2008; they did nothing to solve it.  Wouldn't make a trade, wouldn't give up a pick for Juan Cruz.  They further, apparently, misread how shallow the offense was.  Bolstered by an unsustainable performance in RISP situations, bailed out by a suprising Denard Span and a dubious Casilla, they scored more runs than they could expect.  Starting the offseason by saying they wanted to upgrade both spots on the left side of the infield, they immediately capitulated, resigned Punto and called it a victory.  They dithered around with 3B until Joe Crede fell into their laps.  They punted doing anything about the outfield crowd of dubiousness.  It appeared to be paralysis, made even more frustrating by the fact that their payroll was diminishing and a new stadium was a year away.

Here's my take: they have generally refused spend money.  I mean, they signed Joe Nathan...but they wouldn't sign Santana.  They signed Michael Cuddyer for 3 years...but let Hunter go (wisely).  They also seem unable to surround their core with quality players.  They have something of a "good enough" syndrome.  The Young trade was their one attempt to add another real hitter...and it hasn't worked.  The guys they dredge up...really not good.  There are always reasons...but they have refused to either trade prospects or spend money--if you won't do either of those things, it's hard to get better.  You can't expect your farm system to pump out above average players at every position year after year--and yet they seem perpetually confused when they have holes that need to be filled. 

I'm not giving up on this team--it has things going for it.  But I will say that I don't think they have done a good job of identifying and fixing problems in the last couple of years.  At some point, Smith has to be responsible for that.  I'll add this: one of the things that many fans like about the Twins is the continuity--they promote from within, they keep people, etc.  That's a good thing, I agree.  But I wonder sometimes if it also doesn't make things stale.  When it's the same people with the same philosophies running thngs, you can get stale, miss out on new ideas.  Sometimes you need new perspectives from the outside to see what you aren't doing well.  I wonder sometimes if the Twins haven't become TOO reliant on the same people doling things the "Twins way." 

That was insanely long, and I didn't even really get to a lot of things I wanted to talk about.  REally I just thought it might be time to take a look at the front office under Bill Smith.

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You're right, there is a lot of content here...

…and as if usually the case, a long list gets shorter once it gets vetted.

I’m going to take a look at just one thing, however:

>>Here’s my take: they have generally refused spend money. I mean, they signed Nathan…but they wouldn’t sign Santana.

Near as I understand, Santana had no intention of signing here. I’m fairly well convinced that the Twins could have offered $10 million more and he would not have signed here. So for me, the Santana issue is off the table. I know it’s hard for Twins’ fans to come to grips with it, but he no longer wanted to be here.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on May 18, 2009 8:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well, I don't know that this is true

it seems to me that the idea that he wouldn’t sign here is as likely a post hoc rationalization as it is actually true.

Look, whether they could have or should have signed Santana isn’t really the issue. I was very scattered in this diary, which is no credit to me, but I was really just scouting around for some patterns.

by Eric in Madison on May 18, 2009 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't go quite that far
Near as I understand, Santana had no intention of signing here. I’m fairly well convinced that the Twins could have offered $10 million more and he would not have signed here.

I think the Twins could potentially re-signed Santana for enough money, but only after he went on the open market, not via contract extension. It seemed to me that he was set on either testing the market or getting a trade to a team rich enough to give him a historic contract.

Note that I’m still not sold on the trade being the right course of action, but a lot of that is hindsight based on Humber’s mediocrity, Guerra and Gomez’s struggles, and the Twins’ surprising competitiveness last year.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 19, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm sold on the trade

No one thought Santana would allow the Twins to be competitive last year without a center fielder. No one thought Denard Span was ready. So, given the knowledge they had, it was between losing with Santana or losing without him. If you lose with him, you end up getting two draft choices, similar to Gutierrez and Hunt. Would you trade Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra for Gutierrez and Hunt? No.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 19, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Santana's thinly-veiled griping...

…about teammates during his last season, plus the at the time unrepoted grumbling witnessed by writers and later revealed, suggests he would not have signed.

But as for patterns, one pattern that I see is Twins’ fans have oddly high strategic expectations and oddly low tactical ones.

For example, they want to win it all, then stage an uproar over four reportedly good outfielders. Twins’ fans are so accustomed to having guys like Jason Tyner come off the bench that some think, for instance, that Cuddyer should be traded. Or that Gomez should be sent down. And then…? Jason Pridie?

Teams win with depth, but too many fans in Minnesota are so acclimated to paper-thin benches that it drives many of these fans crazy to see Brian Buscher on the bench for a few games, or Kubel. Or Harris. I don’t get it.

Winning teams stack up that roster with more starting players than they need, then when the front line goes down you move in the second-line and bring the AAA guys up to play caddie. You win it all by pulling guys of the bench and not skipping at least most, if not all, of a beat.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on May 18, 2009 9:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good article

I’ve been thinking many of the same things. Question is, if you were in charge, would you wait on Smith to improve like they did with Terry Ryan, or fire Smith because the Twins are in position to win now and he is not helping matters?

by wcooley on May 19, 2009 11:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't advocate firing him

Frankly, I have no idea whether he’s good or bad at the job. Nothing he’s done so far that’s obvious and public has particularly impressed me, but then the sample is small and there’s a lot I don’t know. When you look at the major stuff, though, it hasn’t been good. Both major trades, while not entirely determined, appear to have been not good. None of last year’s free agents (Lamb, Everertt, Monroe (sort of a trade, but more like an FA signing), and Hernandez (marginal)) worked out. Crede looks OK. The Cuddyer signing was always dubious, and I hate spending so much on a closer (though it’s hard to argue with that one). Of course, only some of this was predictable beforehand—some of it was just bad luck (though some of it WAS predictable).

Here’s my general take, which I mentioned in the article: My concern is that the Twins are TOO invested in internal promotions and maintaining franchise stability, and as a result don’t get new ideas and fresh perspectives into the organization. Not a Smith specific concern.

by Eric in Madison on May 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BTW

Remember when the “front page” meant the A section of this thing called the “newspaper”? You know, news about the civil war in Sri Lanka, torture photos, and health care reform?

by wcooley on May 19, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well I do

But the number of us who remember life before personal computers and the internet is dwindling.

by Eric in Madison on May 19, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At least

the number of people who are on this site that also remember life before personal computers and the internet is dwindling.

by Evan Nelson on May 19, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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