Lineup Shakeup
by 33MorneauMVP on May 20, 2009 3:25 PM EDT
29 comments
Twins have struggled mightly this season to find a man that can hit/move runners up/work the count to hit in front of Mauer and Morneau. As a result of this, the number 2 hole seems to be an automatic, unproductive out. This robs Mauer and Morneau and the Twins of potential RBIs. What the Twins need is to find a number 2 man that will work the count and move runners ahead. Who do we have?
Alexi Casilla:
Casilla is mired in Triple-A Rochester due to his appearing lack-luster playing. Before being sent down to Triple-A, Casilla batted: .167, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6 RS, 2 SB, 1 2B, 1 3B, 6 BB, 17 K, .231 OBP, .202 SLG, .433 OPS. Not what you want from your number 2 man and starting second baseman. However, since being sent down, Casilla has turned it around: .326 AVG, 0 HR, 2 3B, 5 RBI, 7 RS, 4 SB, 4 BB, 6 K, .380 OBP, .413 SLG, .793 OPS. Certainly a different Casilla than what we grew used in the early months of this season. With this line, I think any team would be pleased to have Casilla hitting second for them.
Jason Kubel:
Kubel hit second most times in his Minor Keague career. Unfortunately, I cannot seem to find his stats in the two hole (if anybody can it would be greatly appreciated). However, I do seem to remember that Kubel hit very well in the two hole for the Minors and the few times he did in the majors, he has always impressed me by his presence in the box. Although Kubel now doesnt feature as a premier number 2 man, he certainly posses the stick and the skill to hit very well in the two hole. Further, it would provide opposing pitchers with headaches knowing that they have to face Span, Kubel, Mauer, and Morneau. It would be very hard to work through those top 4. Kubel may not posses the speed typical for a #2 hitter, but he is patient at the plate and has the power to get extra bases and also his over the wall power. If I was Gardy, I would slot Kubel into the two hole for a few games and see how he handles it.
Delmon Young:
I know what most fans on this board are going to say. Don't put DY in the two hole to kill our rallies. However, the few times that DY was slotted into the two hole this spring and with the Tampa Bay Rays, he hit very well. Delmon possesses some speed and extra base power. However, one drawback to DY hitting two is his hackiness. However, from what I seem to remember of DY hitting #2 this spring, he drew a surprising number of walks and seemed more comfortable at the plate. I am not totally sold on the idea of batting Delmon 2 in the lineup, but I think something has to be tried right now in order to find the best order in the lineup.
Mark Grudzielanek:
The old Kansas City second baseman is still on the free agent market and could easily slide into the two hole. Grud always featured a high average and a surprisingly good eye. The only thing is that he has yet to play this year and it may take him a while to get back into the swing of things. Grud is a good short term option until the Twins can find a better replacement. Furthermore, Grud always seemed to cause headaches for the Twins and most other teams despite his low stature on the stat sheet. There was a time when Grud would have been considered an all-star type player but those days are gone, but hopefully, he will not have lost his tact with the bat.
This offseason, I hope to see the Twins start to make some trades for both bullpen and a brand new SS, having been stuck with Punto for the past 3 years. Are there any SS prospects who might come at the right price and pay off? Brandon Wood (LAA) catches my eye along with Alcides Escobar (MIL). Of course, there is one name that catches my eye as a free agent this coming winter: Jason Bartlett. Of course, the Twins could trade pitchers/outfielders to Milwaukee to try and grab one of their shortstops (J.J. Hardy, Alcides Escobar) from them, with both of these hitters being excellent number 2 hitters.
Revised Lineup:
1. Denard Span - LF
2. Jason Kubel/Delmon Young - DH
3. Joe Mauer - C
4. Justin Morneau - 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer - RF
6. Joe Crede - 3B
7. Carlos Gomez/Brendan Harris - CF/SS
8. Nick Punto/Brendan Harris/Carlos Gomez - SS/CF
9. Alexi Casilla - 2B
Hopeful 2010 Lineup:
1. Span - LF
2. Escobar/Hardy/Bartlett - SS
3. Mauer - C
4. Morneau - 1B
5. Kubel - DH
6. Cuddyer - RF
7. Danny Valencia - 3B
8. Carlos Gomez - CF
9. Alexi Casilla - 2B
What are your thoughts on the revised lineup I put together? From this point, I think that the Twins have to make a change and have to slot players in certain spots to see if that makes a "winning" lineup. Furthermore, at this point, the number 2 hole is just that, a hole. Anybody would work there right now from what has come out of that spot.
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Mauer #2
Slide everyone else up. I know it’s kind of become the challops arguement among Twins fans, but it has a lot of merit.
by matty_b on May 20, 2009 3:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't put a lot of stock
in batting order. But that being said, Delmon Young SHOULD NEVER hit in the #2 slot. There is utterly no reason why DY should be given more plate appearances than everyone on the team other than Span. Delmon Young right now is a poor hitting, poor fielding corner outfielder, and has easily been one of the 5-7 worst MLB regulars this year. His ground ball rate is over 60% on the year, which really only works if you’re name happens to be Ichiro. Put him in the 2 hole and he’d make a run at the single season GIDP record, while bringing almost nothing else to the table.
I voted for other (Mauer).
by JopeX37 on May 20, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why not Cuddyer?
Completely ripping off cmathewson’s suggestion in another thread, why isn’t Cuddyer an option here? He’s patient, hits for moderate power, and is a decent baserunner.
Mauer is probably the best choice, although with his newfound power stroke, he’s certainly a fine fit in the 3 hole as well.
Interesting suggestion with Grudzielanek – I didn’t realize how consistently decent he’s been offensively the last few years (100 OPS+ in both ‘07 and ’08). It would basically be a giant middle finger to Casilla for the remainder of the year, but it does have some improve-the-offense potential, at least… I’m not sure how his defense has held up as he’s aged, although he did win a Gold Glove fairly recently.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on May 20, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Your best hitter bats third
So that solves the Mauer question.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on May 20, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the by-the-numbers analysis, your #3 comes up with the fewest runners on base.
So you shouldn’t put your best hitter #3.
by Evan Nelson on May 22, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see the numbers
Based on what?
I presume Bill James still adheres to his analysis that batting order doesn’t matter?
In which case, of course, it wouldn’t matter where your best hitter was slotted.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on May 22, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Batting order does matter
But the only principle that matters is to give your best hitters the most at bats. How you define “best” is a bit of a question. But OPS+ will suffice. By James’ principle, our line-up should start with Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer, Span. Rejiggering the mix of those five guys doesn’t change much about the end result, however. So Span, Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Cuddyer will do. And since platoons do matter, against lefties, move Kubel back and insert Cuddy into the clean-up spot.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 23, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"By James' principle"...
…batting order doesn’t matter, as I understand his long-held position, which I still believe is his current position. (You’re introducing an entirely new aspect with the platoon information. Let’s keep this focus on the topic: batting order.) If that is no longer James’ principle, do you have a link to support that?
While I find James’ long-held assertion difficult to believe, he’s crunched the numbers on it and I have not. He wins, because I can’t support my opposition to his theory. I imagine his theory begins to earn credibility by the fact that after the first inning, anyone can become a leadoff man, which blunts the notion of having a batting order critiera.
(To digress: Also, if batting order doesn’t matter, why has David Ortiz never led off for Boston? James is an employee of the Red Sox, and although he does not pencil in the lineup, if his theory was correct it seems to me he would be able to convince the decision-makers in Boston, including Francona.)
But I can support the opposition to the “by-the-numbers” one liner here. I want to see numbers that suppot that theory.
We have numbers that on the surface refute that theory.
Here goes: The two batters who precede the No. 2 batter are Nos. 9 and 1. There is no way those two batters are on base more than Nos. 1&2, so by that alone the theory becomes questionable and warrants substantiation. Even in DH leagues – which is basically every league in the world save for the NL – the No. 9 hitter’s on-base percentage does not exceed the No. 1 and 2 batters, so the “by-the-numbers” argument needs more support than two lines on a blog.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on May 23, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin
is probably what Evan Nelson is referring to.
Tango, Lichtman and Dolphin argue that the No. 3 spot in the order comes to the plate with no runners on base more than any spot in the batting order.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on May 23, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
P.S. David Ortiz isn't leading off for Boston
because he’s batting .205/.310/.315 and he’s not going to get better.
Big Papi is done.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on May 23, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As usual...
…nothing helpful here.
Next.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on May 24, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a pretty good summary here
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
Otherwise, check out the book here:
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on May 24, 2009 3:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jesse also wrote a good post here a few months back
http://www.twinkietown.com/2009/3/17/801767/twins-2009-lineup-via-the
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
by natetheskate on May 24, 2009 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Book, and misstating its contents
This is:
a) not a new concept
b) not universally relevant.
Back in 1984 the Boston Red Sox moved Wade Boggs into the No. 1 spot and pushed power-hitting Dwight Evans into No. 2. That meant Boggs followed the No. 9 batter, and if the No. 9 batter led off an inning, both of these men followed that man, who was Jackie Gutierrez. He had an OBP below .300.
Boston received some heat, but the Elias Sports Bureau revealed that the Red Sox THAT SEASON scored nearly 23 percent more runs when the No. 9 man led off, when compared to the Nos. 1-8 batters.
The Red Sox won 86 games that season.
However, that great disparity did not apply to the league, even though ON AVERAGE there was little difference in the AMERICAN LEAGUE between run production when the No. 9 man led off compared to anyone else leading off.
However, with the No. 9 man leading off an inning, five teams scored fewer runs by a margin of at least 13 percent, and the Blue Jays were 32 percent worse THAT SEASON.
The problem, of course, is that you don’t know how YOUR TEAM will be affected in advance. The numbers change every year. So you need to know if your team will be the ‘85 Sox or the’85 Jays before the season begins. That’s not possible.
Beyond that, Evan Nelson misstates “The Book” in his original post. He claims, "In the by-the-numbers analysis, your #3 comes up with the fewest runners on base.
So you shouldn’t put your best hitter #3."
No, it means you should put him at 4 or 5, if you believe “The Book” and if you like the term “on average.”
This is what The Books really says: …“the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters.”
Evan, for some reason, omits the reference to 4 and 5.
To summarize: The Book uncovered something Elias uncovered 25 seasons ago, and unlike Elias The Book’s use of “on average” doesn’t illuminate the fact that in reality many teams will score far fewer runs with this approach.
Right now, the batter who will come to the plate with the most runners on for the Twins is in fact the No. 3 hitter. Span and Mauer precede him, and they are on base more than anyone else.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on May 30, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes Cuddyer
Cuddyer sees a lot of pitches, takes a decent number of walks, and is smart on the bases (moslty).
I agree with the poster on Delmon. He would be the last person on the team I would put in that spot. He’s a double-play machine who sees the fewest pitches on the team. And I would not want Jason “Station-to-Station” Kubel hitting between Span and Mauer.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Cuddyer, too.
But I’ve talked about this already, too.
The lineup gets talked about a lot, and I’m guilty of it too. Mostly I’m just concerned about getting production out of the number two spot in the order, whether that’s Mauer or whoever. I just don’t think, realistically, that Gardenhire will move him up.
by Jesse on May 20, 2009 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The solution
Move Cuddyer back to second base, like when he was going to deliver us from Rivas back in ’04 or so. Gardy reflexively writes a “4” on the lineup card in the second spot; problem solved.
We know you’ve talked about it, Jesse… it’s just that at this point, the #2 spot in the lineup and the Pitching Staff From Hell are about all there is to talk about until the Twins start winning again and we can go back to arguing whether Joe or Justin should be the league MVP.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on May 20, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Escobar?
Who’s this 2010 escobar/hardy?
by Trosface on May 20, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would actually like to see Cuddy in the 3rd spot.
The difference between 2 and 3 isn’t a big deal, so it would be nice to split up the 4 lefties down the middle and make it easier in late game situations.
by lookatthosetwins on May 20, 2009 6:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There basically is no different splits
between LH pitchers and RH pitchers when it come to Mauer and Morneau. They both hit lefties really well, as a matter of fact, I think Mauer is hitting LHs better than RHs. So there is no arguement with splitting up the lefties in the 3-4 spots. Mauer and Morneau are some of the best, if not the best, at hitting LH pitchers even though they themselves are LH.
by 33MorneauMVP on May 20, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kubel, on the other hand
Versus Lefties: .179/2.33/.250/483
Versus Righties: .365/.402/.615/1.017
I think it’s time to start platooning Mr. Kubel with Mr. Young. But if you do hit him against a lefty, hit him eighth Gardy, please?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 20, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not True
Career Splits, by OPS
Name vs. left vs. right
Mauer .748 .928
Morneau .762 .906
Kubel .665 .813
Cuddyer .810 .772
So yes, there is a reason to split up the lefties. Cuddyer has been better against them throughout his career than either Mauer or Morneau. And that’s counting his horrible, injury plagued last two seasons.
Now, the reason why everyone seems to think that the M & M’s are immune to platoon splits is because of last year. Here are their 2008 OPS splits.
Name vs. left vs. right
Mauer .940 .826
Morneau .777 .928
Kubel .724 .846
Cuddyer .694 .700
So first, the myth of Morneau being as good against lefties is completely wrong and I’m not sure why people think that. As far as Mauer, one year of reverse splits isn’t going to make me think that he’s magically solved lefties. The sample size against lefties is so small for one season that crazy splits like this can happen. Keep in mind that his career splits include 2008, so the gap was even wider before last year. Maybe he has made adjustments, but more than likely his splits will regress towards his career numbers. Contrary to popular belief, using a LOOGY is a very effective strategy against us, and we have nothing to stop them from doing so.
by lookatthosetwins on May 20, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spot Kubel vs. lefties
Some lefthanders do give Kubel a lot of trouble, especially those was a sweeping curve or slider. I think Kubel has had good luck vs. Danks, and in general, he is pretty selective against a lefty, willing to take a walk. Regarding the other two good hitters, Mauer actually seems more dangerous vs. lefties. He hit a majority of his HRs last year off lefthanders. He has hit at least two HRs this year off lefties. Morneau becomes a bit of a different hitter vs. a lefty, perhaps looking more for a mistake and more will to go opposite field. He has enough power to still get a lot of extra base hits that way, but I think good LH pitches will most often get Morneau out.
by Alexi Casilla All-Star on May 20, 2009 7:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well mauer is batting 2 today...lets hope this sticks
1. Span, CF
2. Mauer, DH
3. Morneau, 1B
4. Kubel, LF
5. Cuddyer, RF
6. Crede, 3B
7. Morales, C
8. Tolbert, 2B
9. Punto, SS
by guinness junky on May 21, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Mauer
I thought Mauer should have been in the 2 spot from when he came back. Same order as when he was out but put him at two and move Casilla/Harris/Tolbert to 7-9.
Keep the order we are currently using, switching at DH between Mauer and Kubel, and Kubel and the rest of the outfield.
No offense (no pun intended) to Gomez and Young, but Gomez works best as a defensive sub and alternating with Young (who has no defense and still has yet to show any sustained offense) in the field. We need to keep Span, Cuddy, and Kubel in the line-up.
by Swedishdest on May 23, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Gomez or Casilla
I would prefer Gomez of Casilla batting 2nd. If they would perform anywhere near last years level, our offense would be much stronger. Ideally Gomez is a premiere number 2 hitter because of the OBP and power potential.
by jimmybuffettguy on May 23, 2009 11:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well
it looks like we will have to hope that Gardy is superstitious, because it certainly seems like he would like to get Mauer out of #2 if he had an even somewhat viable option.
The only thing we can hope for is that he just decides it would be bad luck to change things back, since the offense has been so good.
by guinness junky on May 24, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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