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Has this been Bill Smith's best move?

All winter Twins fans were impatiently waiting for Bill Smith to do something.  We needed a top short reliever.  We needed a power hitting third baseman who batted from the right side.  Fans weren't very patient, but Bill Smith was.

Bill Smith was confident that a third base platoon of Brian Buscher and Brendon Harris would be acceptable.  Yet, he continued to monitor the health of Joe Crede.  We all know who represents Joe Crede and that his agent had high expectations for a large, multi year contract.  As the winter moved on towards spring, options for Crede thinned as Bill Smith and the Twins continued to show up and watch him work out.

With spring training only days away, Crede and his agent accepted what Bill Smith and the Twins were willing to pay....an incentive laden one year contract at a base salary of $2.5mm with an additional $4.5mm incentives beginning at 250 plate appearances and maxing out at 525. 

Bill Smith's patience and tenacity paid off as the Twins got an excellent defensive third baseman who swings from the right side with some power.  Crede is providing exactly what the Twins hoped for and appears on track to hit around .250 Average with 25 or so home runs.  At his current pace he will earn most, if not all, of his incentives...between $6.5mm and $7.0mm. 

Only time will tell whether or not Crede will continue playing as he has, will stay healthy and whether or not the Twins will be in the playoffs.  But it is clear that Mr. Smith played his hand well with Crede and his agent.

But what does the future hold?  It was clear that Crede agreed to this one year deal in an effort to prove to all teams that he was healthy to earn a bigger long-term payday next winter.  Will the Twins be at the table when negotiations begin anew this November?

Odds are low the Twins would sign Crede to a three or four year deal at $10mm a season or more.  But don't be surprised when the Twins offer arbitration this November.  Should Crede accept, the Twins would end up paying market value for another year of Joe Crede while Danny Valencia gets himself ready to be their every day third baseman. 

But it is likely Crede wouldn't accept arbitration.  And this is what makes Bill Smith's actions last winter a real winner.  I expect that with another solid year, Joe Crede will be a Type-A free agent.  If so, the Twins will receive a first or second round pick from the team signing Crede and a supplemental first round selection. 

Yes, we were unhappy for much of the winter as Bill Smith held his cards close to his chest.  In the end, the Twins got an all-star third baseman for 2009 on an incentive laden contract and very likely two high draft picks in the 2010 draft.  Now that, in my opinion, is an excellent deal and probably the best Mr. Smith has done since taking control of this organization.

 

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No question the Crede thing has worked out

Of course, the risk was big—one other team willing to pay more, and you are indeed stuck with a Harris-Buscher platoon, which would not be OK. He also did nothing about that need for a reliever you mentioned, by the way, and that has haunted. No need to review the litany here, though.

I don’t think Crede will get a multi-year deal at $10M per—but hopefully you are right and he’ll be a type A.

I doubt they will pay Crede, but I wouldn’t be suprised if they try to find another cheap player on the market next off-season, since they seem to not want to put Valencia in a position to get the job next year. Of course, that’s been the plan the last several years, and it hasn’t worked until now. Batista. Lamb. Not good.

I agree, though; Crede appears to be Smith’s best effort so far.

by Eric in Madison on May 25, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Probably.

Kinda damning with faint praise tough, as he hasn’t really made any other deals I’ve particularly liked. I suppose all in all the Santana trade was OK, given the bind he was in.

by JopeX37 on May 25, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That Santana Trade..

You know, I’m not too sure how to react to the deal quite yet..

We all knew Johan would be as much of an ace as ever, and he hasn’t failed to disappoint, seeing as we knew he had occasional gopherball troubles.

But what have we gotten?

For the first 2-3 months of 2008, Carlos Gomez alone made it seem like this was a great trade. From his opening day hustling against LAA to his cycle, “Go-Go” Gomez became a fan favorite. As soon as his bat cooled down and Denard Span’s heated up, things started to shift. It was Span, the kid brought up slowly in the organization, and not Gomez who was a Topps “All-Rookie Team” Outfielder choice, despite only half a season of work. All-in-all, Gomez has settled into a Michael Bourn-type, a speed demon with a mediocre OPS.

Humber has not been sensational whatsoever at the MLB level. He never showed good control over his pitches, and his ERA suffered from it.

Kevin Mulvey hasn’t been in a high level of the organization, but he is a top-flight pitching prospect. He’s back in AAA with signs of a possible late-season call up.

Deolis Guerra is still in high-A ball, but he does show promise for the future.

Jury’s out, ladies and gentlemen. Let the opinions fly.

by Jeff Rueter on Jun 3, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not to mention its kind of a "move" by default.

wait and see and get lucky.

Sometimes that works – more often than not it doesn’t.

by montanatwinsfan on May 25, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

truth be told

this was likely more a result of Crede trying to get too much in an offseason where salaries seemed diminished. He pushed for more money and other teams moved on. Twins were likely just the last team standing.

by guinness junky on May 25, 2009 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wrong.

Crede did not push for more money. Scott Boras pushed for more money but not Crede. There is a difference there.

by 33MorneauMVP on May 25, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

He got offered more money from the Giants. But he wanted to stay in the Central Division.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 26, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

when the dust settled and there were no suitors other than the Twins and Giants. The Giants arent exactly the best run organization. I am not buying that he was just enamored with playing in the AL central.

by guinness junky on May 26, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you clearly have no concept

of what it means to be someone’s agent. If Boras is pushing for more money, Crede is pushing for more money.

by guinness junky on May 26, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or at the very least,

Crede is giving him the green light to “push” for more money.

by montanatwinsfan on May 26, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Boras is a special case

I could cite you chapter and verse about how Boras pushed for more money than the market demanded to the detriment of his clients. Not only for FAs but recent draft choices as well. JD Drew missed two years of prime service time trying to get a better deal because he trusted Boras. He missed out big time.

Most agents work for their clients. In Boras’s case, you get the impression that the roles are reversed.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 26, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I sure dont get that impression
Most agents work for their clients. In Boras’s case, you get the impression that the roles are reversed.

Players are free to walk from their agent if they don’t like what they are doing. No one is being held hostage by Scott Boras. Players choose Boras to get a maximum payout and he ends up, happily I am sure, taking the PR hit, rather than the player.

If Drew sat out for 2 years simply on the advice of Boras, that is on him, not Boras.

by guinness junky on May 26, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some questionable assertions

Drew was in the big leagues at 22. He earned about $14 million in his first five years, and has been paid more than $66 million overall. Pretty good for a guy who can’t always find his way onto the field.

Health problems have conspired against Drew – a notorious underachiever who was full of himself – more than has his agent.

He never got bigger money early partly because teams questioned if he could answer the bell for even 120 games – which is something that he failed to do in half of his first six full seasons in MLB.

To say that he missed two years of “prime service” is highly subjective for a couple of reasons, health being just one of them.

Another is that the Phils, who drafted him despite being told he would not sign with them, were not willing to pay the ridiculous sum Drew was asking, anyway. In short, no one was going to pay him big money, so his agent could not have been the problem – Drew would not have been given 10s of millions no matter what the situation.

Being only the Phils could negotiate with him, he was as much at the mercy of the parameters of the baseball draft as he was at the mercy of his agent.

It’s also a leap to simply suggest Drew missed two years of “prime service.” He missed a year of service when he was barely out of his teens, and for most players the first years in the majors are not prime service.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on May 30, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

If he hadn’t missed the service time, he would have started the clock that much sooner. That was my point.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 30, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That assumes he would not have played any minor league ball

Very few players go from college to the major leagues.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on May 31, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Looks more like Arod, with the aid of his agent, doing some PR/damage control
"I made mistakes," Rodriguez said. "I mean, Scott works for me. So at the end of the day, when it comes to the World Series, when it comes to opting out, when it comes to all the big mistakes, I’ve got to look in the mirror and take that bullet. If I had to do it again, I would have called Hank from Day 1 and negotiated the contract myself."

In the article Arod chose to retain Boras. Why would he do that if Boras wasn’t acting for him and with his approval?

What Boras does well for his clients is fall on the sword and take the blame as the a-hole agent who is causing the salaries to rise, thus removing the blame from the player.

by guinness junky on May 26, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya know, I suspect the dynamic is not that simple

This is all pure speculation, guinness junky, since I am not an expert in contract negotiations, and your point that ultimately it’s the player who is responsible for his agent is valid.

That said, I think an agent like Boras holds a lot more cards than you think. Just look at hedge fund managers and how they screwed over their investors to make short-term bonus money based on a percentage of earnings for their clients. That compensation structure is a similar to the x% Scott Boras gets on every contract he signs. It’s also similar in that hedge fund managers and baseball agents are basically making a living off other people’s money.

Now, hedge funds weren’t regulated by the SEC on the theory that people investing in hedge funds should be savvy enough to know what they’re getting themselves into. Obviously, that didn’t work. Investors trusted hedge fund managers even though these investors were supposedly some of the smartest institutions and individuals around. Now, lets jump down a couple rungs on the financial intelligence ladder to major league ball players, who I am guessing know next to nothing about money. That’s not a knock on major league ball players, but it’s not something a hitting coach kicks down to you in AA ball.

A few years back, a group of economists including Joseph Stiglitz won the nobel prize for their theory of asymmetric information. If there ever was a case of one party having a monopoly on information here, I’d say it was Scott Boras over his clients.

Now I think you’re right, no one’s holding a gun to Joe Crede’s or JD Drew’s or A-Rod’s head. They want to maximize their contracts, and Boras has a reputation as someone who can do that. But until recently, a lot of private capital funds had the same reputation. That doesn’t absolve ball players of blame for their role in this equation, but I think it’s probably more one of ignorance than one of active complicity.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on May 26, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have to agree with Guinness Junky here, but...

hedge funds might be a great analogy for agents because of the lack of independent supervision. I was going to analogize to a client’s decision to hire a lawyer. Most people have an idea of what they want but allow the lawyer to make most – if not all – of the strategic decisions. Lots of people do not have the ability to analyze their case well enough to second guess their lawyer’s actions or advice.

fine analogy so far – except here is where I suspect the difference comes into play: lawyer’s are regulated by the Bar Association’s in their state and by the Supreme Court in their state. So lawyers are usually acutely aware of the need to keep clients informed and advised, but to let the client make ultimate decisions.

I bring this up because my first reaction was to say that I doubted many ballplayers would be so dumb as to let an agent damage their career like JD Drew or A-Rod. But then I realized, agents probably dont have any other check/balance than the clients’ individual savvy and willingness to stay on top of their own siuation. If a client decided to let the agent make every decision, even to the point of damage, I guess it could easily happen.

It shouldn’t. The ballplayer is the boss. But I bet you are right that sometimes it does.

by montanatwinsfan on May 26, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t know enough about hedge funds, but I would think that the managers are not fiduciaries of those they manage the money for.

The attorney/client relationship analogy does work well to a point. Most relevant to the discussion at hand is that an attorney who is handling a case, must communicate any settlement/plea offers from the other side to the client, no matter what. Is there some similar regulation for agents? I have no clue. I do believe the MLBPA certifies agents and likely sets forth minimum standards of conduct for being certified. If rogue agents are an issue, they could certainly put a stop to that.

While there doesnt appear to be a strong regulatory body, the ultimate check/balance system for sports agent is the fact that there are TONS of agents out there who would like nothing better than to help your client get a deal done. I know a couple of agents and they are in constant contact with their clients, because if they aren’t and arent acting in their best interests, they will be former clients pretty quickly..

The Arod story is telling, again, if what Boras did was so awful (it seemed like a complete lie to his client and a betrayal) why would Arod retain him?

It just seems odd that we are willing to give an athlete a pass for hiring and sanctioning the acts of a “blood sucking agent” and in the same breath damn the agent for what he has done. I also just don’t buy into the idea that the athletes are too dumb to follow what’s going on and that they ultimately turn over all decisions to an agent. They may not know the ins and outs of the collective bargaining agreement, but they know what they want to get paid, where they want to play, and whatever else that is important to them.

by guinness junky on May 27, 2009 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was thinking about this some more

Maybe a better analogy is realtors. But the classic problem with realtors is they want to sell your house now for less money than wait a few months and get you a little more, which is the opposite of the problem we’ve got with sports agents. So I don’t know.

Like you, I’d also like to know about how agents are regulated in MLB, etc. If anyone has a link or more info, I’d love to know more.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on May 27, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

probably..

Hard to give him credit for anything. As there were a number of lousy decisions..

by MagikLair on May 25, 2009 7:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It is

It is the best move so far, which is fine, it just doesn’t compare with the many many many bad moves.

I still really wish we’d signed Orlando Hudson.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on May 25, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

O-Dog looks really good after Casilla’s demotion.

by JopeX37 on May 26, 2009 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

John Miller kept saying people criticised Smith for paying too much

What was that all about? If anything, people were concerned he was playing hardball and would not ultimately land Crede for what turned out to be half the cost of Nick Punto, prior to incentives.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 25, 2009 9:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

100% Agreement

I mean considering what we had to look forward to there was no downside in signing Mr. Crede. Look who we have had at 3rd recently: Butcher, Cuddyer, Baptista, Harris—none of whom fielded the position well at all. His BA is not that high, but his hits have been timely (his RBI total is quite impressive).

A bigger issue is how long must we live with the 4 million dollar jack of no trades. He is mediocre as a fielder and he has returned to his usual hitting ability, and HE DOESN"T DO THE SMALL THINGS WELL!

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on May 28, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Punto

That’s what is so darn frustrating with this guy. Yes, he can’t hit (outside of a couple of hot streaks in seven years). Yes, his fielding is average at best and sloppy at worst. But guys like that have a place on teams as utility guys if they do the little things right. Still, what boggles my mind is he’s a marginal major league utility guy/AAAA player for whom we paid $8.5 million and to whom we continue hand starter jobs.

I lost track of the number of times he failed to get a bunt down, or popped up a bunt in a key situation. I lost track of the number of strikeouts he’s had in key situations. I lost track of the number of times he’s made outs by sliding into first base, sometimes on double plays. You can’t hit and run with him because he has no bat control. You can’t steal with him because he’s strike-out prone. And he hot dogs every defensive play, creating errors on routine plays.

For example, what is up with him turning double plays by running toward first? He’s done that the last two nights. The first time, he bounced it 10 feet in front of Morneau, for an error and an unearned run. The second time, he bounced it two feet in front of Morneau and Morneau saved him from his second error on the night and third in two games with a nice backhanded scoop. He dives for balls that he can run to, often letting them hit off his glove. He takes odd routes on ballsso he can backhand them. He’s just not that good defensively.

I just don’t get what they see in this guy.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 28, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Simple

He battles his tail off. Every night.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on May 28, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who's tail?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 28, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

That is the $8.5 MM question.

"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella

by natetheskate on May 28, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, a puff piece on Crede. Crede has not been the exceptional player that the Twins wanted. He has not been a disaster or a complete bust, but he also has not been great so far. I would call the Crede pickup mediocre at this point. Casey Blake would have been the better choice by a longshot.

As for that incentive-laden contract he signed, so what? All he has to do is get the at-bats and he will cash in big. He doesn’t have to produce, and with the other options the Twins have of course he will get those at-bats unless he is injured. Also, his contract may have been great for the Pohlad pocket book, but as fans why would we care about such a thing? We want someone who will produce. Batting .220 isn’t producing. He has had a handful of good games, mostly against AL Central teams that he knows well, along with a lot of games where he has been dead weight.

by Boot on May 27, 2009 7:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A few things wrong with this comment.

#1. You ignore defense in your evaluation. Crede has been one of the very best third basemen defensively in baseball thus far – +7.4 UZR. Blake, as always, has been mediocre – +0.1 UZR. Considering their complete value on both sides of the field, Crede has only been 0.3 wins above replacement less valuable than Blake thus far (that is, 1.6 WAR for Blake and 1.3 for Crede).

#2. You also ignore the contracts each player was capable of commanding this offseason. Because defense is still undervalued to an extent, Blake was able to command a 3-year deal. (Bill Smith ended up playing a little “Moneyball” here, although I’m sure he didn’t see it that way.) Considering their overall value as players is pretty close to equal, it’s a significant positive for the Twins that they will pay their third baseman much less money and carry two fewer years of obligation and risk than the Dodgers will.

by DK on May 28, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

When discussing Creder, everyone is missing...

…the key point of my discussion. That is the liklihood that when Crede leaves at the end of this year the Twins will get a first/second round pick plus a supplemental pick if the Twins offer arbitration, which I expect they will. Those picks are what puts this signing over the top, in my opinion, especially to a team like the Twins.

by roger13 on May 28, 2009 7:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thought it was a nickname, no worries

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 28, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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