Red Wings Minor League Equivalency

by Jesse on May 25, 2009 12:25 PM EDT in By the Numbers Comment 11 comments

Just for fun this morning, before we take on the Red Sox this afternoon.

Using this MLE calculator, we can translate minor league lines to get an idea of how that exact same perfromance would translate in MLB. We'll do this from time to time as the season progresses, so for now it's just a taste test. We'll check out a few of Rochester's biggest boppers.

Luke Hughes

Split	League	Team	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Actual	IL (AAA)	Red Wings	134	19	35	8	2	6	28	18	37	.261	.346	.485
Equivalent	MLB	Twins	138	15	31	7	2	5	22	14	39	.224	.297	.400

Justin Huber

Split	League	Team	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Actual	IL (AAA)	Red Wings	93	13	27	3	2	3	15	9	20	.290	.368	.462
Equivalent	MLB	Twins	95	10	24	3	2	2	12	7	21	.251	.303	.386

Alexi Casilla

Split	League	Team	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG
Actual	IL (AAA)	Red Wings	64	9	21	0	3	0	7	5	11	.328	.377	.422
Equivalent	MLB	Twins	65	7	19	0	2	0	5	4	12	.285	.326	.357

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Uh,

that’s not all that encouraging.

by montanatwinsfan on May 25, 2009 1:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We need a middle infielder who can hit

Neither Hughes nor Huber can play in the infield, and we don’t need a DH or corner outfielder, thank you very much.

But it sure would be nice to upgrade up the middle with Casilla at some point. Neither Punto nor Tolbert is above the Mendozza line and Harris has a .481 OPS the last two weeks and a .571 OPS the last month. I’d like to see more on the MLE because I can think of 10 guys who performed as well or better in the majors than AAA. Span comes to mind, for example. Let’s hope Casilla can at least do as well. He has to be better than Tolbert or Punto.

Besides Casilla, the Twins don’t really have any middle infielders ready to contribute. I had hoped Trevor Plouffe would be ready, but he’s hitting .227/.279/355 for the WIngs, which is not much better than Tolbert when you put it through the MLE calculator.

Both Tolleson and Dinkleman are hitting well in New Britain right now. I’d like to see at least one of them move up. But not all the way to the majors.

If I were Bill Smith, I’d be out looking for middle infielders right now. I wonder what it would take to get Guzman back? Our middle infield is a joke.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 25, 2009 9:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morales is another example

He’s hitting .267/.393/.311 for Rochester but .358/.424/.415 for the big club. The MLE is an estimate based on other players, most of whom struggle when called up, some of whom do not. It is not a predictive tool.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 25, 2009 10:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not quite sure I agree

It is not a predictive tool.

I think it is a predictive tool; it’s just not a perfect one (not that such a thing exists). The whole point of MLE is to give you an idea of what to expect from a hitter when he’s promoted to the major leagues.

In reply to your earlier post, I don’t know exactly how accurate MLE is in practice – does anyone know where to find numbers like that? If it is accurate, I’d assume that it is so only for awhile, as players who are promoted from the minors are generally on the upswing of their careers, so you’d expect them to improve beyond their translated line at some point. You probably run into sample size issues, then; I’m guessing it is one of those things that evens out on a larger scale.

Also, I can’t believe we are pining for Alexi Casilla. He’s had four major league stints (2007, before and after injury in 2008, and 2009), and three of them have been irredeemably awful. Other than this year after his demotion, he hasn’t hit all that well in the minors above A ball. I don’t see any reason to think that his two good months last year are any more reproducible than Lew Ford’s two good months in 2004.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 26, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A weather anology

When you say, “East wind means rain.” You are predicting rain even though it only happens 60% of the time when you have an east wind. MLE is such a predictive tool. It might only have 60% accuracy. Jesse said this:

we can translate minor league lines to get an idea of how that exact same perfromance (sic.) would translate in MLB

Which is what I was responding to. It’s just too strong. A better way of saying it is the the MLE gives you an idea of the kind of performance we are likely to get in the MLB. It’s about as statistically significant as calling an election with 1 percent of the precincts reporting and a 60-40 margin.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 26, 2009 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, yeah...

Methinks you’re expecting too much from predictive tools in baseball. You can take PECOTA, one of the most accurate and well-respected projection systems in existence, applied to a consistent 8-year MLB veteran, and still get wildly inaccurate results.

“Exact same performance” may have been a poor choice of words on Jesse’s part (you can’t duplicate anything exactly in baseball), but I think you’re missing the fact that that part of his sentence wasn’t discussing the predictive aspect – it was illustrating how the level of hitting put up in the minors would likely have resulted at the major league level, based on the results of others who have made that leap (at least, I assume that’s how the MLE formulas were derived). The predictive aspect comes from assuming that past performance is indicative of future results, to borrow a phrase from investing. As your broker will tell you, that isn’t always the case, but it is pretty much the best we have to go on.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 26, 2009 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps I expect too much from predictive tools

Don’t get me started on PECOTA. From my experience. it’s wrong as often as it is right. In other words, it might as well make random predictions. I am at a loss as to why it’s as well respected as it is.

Bill James does a pretty good job of predicting, as does Marcel, and they’re right more than 60 percent of the time. I’d say the MLE is somewhere between PECOTA and James.

I don’t know the details, but I wonder if they adjust for leagues. The IL is a pitchers’ league. The PCL is a hitters league. Last time I checked, there was a 50 point OPS differential between the two leagues on average. If the MLE normalizes between them, it’s automatically 25 points low for IL players.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 26, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They can adjust

The site I’ve used is Minor League Splits. You can see between the various minors too if you’d like.

by GACTwinFan on May 26, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To each his own

Marcel is actually not much of a projection system (the full name is the “Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System” because of its simplicity) – all it does is weight the last three years of the player’s career, factor in an age factor, and regress that to the mean.

PECOTA occasionally comes up with some head-scratchers (Matt Wieters!), but it also predicted the Rays would be good last year, for example. It’s well-regarded because, despite your focus on its failures, it tends to be good, overall (here’s a reference from 2004; admittedly, it’s from Baseball Prospectus). If you know of something markedly better, I’m all ears.

I plugged Hughes’ numbers into the link of GACTwinsFan’s, which adjusts for league, and the numbers match with Jesse’s, so I’m guessing that’s what he used. For Hughes, I changed his league from IL to PCL, and the change in major league translation was almost exactly what you predicted – 10 points of OBP and 17 points of SLG.

EdBerger, they do adjust for park – Hughes’ major league translations got better when I switched his home park from Neutral to Rochester.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on May 26, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Casilla is another example

Last year, he was hitting .200 in Rochester. After his call-up, he was a key cog in the line-up until he got hurt. SOme guys perform better against better competition.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 25, 2009 10:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Do those projection sites adjust for ballparks?

The IL is, without a doubt, the pitchers’ league in Triple-A. What also doesn’t help is the ballpark in Rochester (my hometown) plays like a pitchers’ park, too – The “power” alley in left-center measures to 390 feet. So don’t be too surprised when offensive numbers out of Rochester seem a little low…

by EdBerger on May 26, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs