FanPost

Power Hitters Projections

With the recent surge from all of the Twins power hitters: Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer, Crede and Span, I decided to look back at the well-respected baseball experts in order to see their projections for these players performances.  The results were surprising.  I went through all the greats: Bill James, Chone, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS.  Then, I put down their season stats so far, and then drew up ESPN to see what they are projected at if they should keep hitting at the same rate as they are currently.  Now, before you start ripping into me about using ESPN for any sort of projections, it is just to get a rough idea of what these players are capable of if they remain hitting at this same rate.

Justin Morneau:

Bill James:  161 Games,  615 AB,  177 H,  40 2B,  3 3B,  29 HR,  92 RS,  120 RBI,  68 BB,  94 SO,  .288 AVG

Chone:  149 Games,  556 AB,  158 H,  33 2B,  3 3B,  26 HR,  83 RS,  108 RBI,  62 BB,  85 SO,  .284 AVG

Marcel:  550 AB,  160 H,  35 2B,  3 3B,  24 HR,  82 RS,  106 RBI,  61 BB,  85 SO,  .291 AVG

Oliver:  629 AB,  175 H,  36 2B,  3 3B,  29 HR,  53 BB,  99 SO,  .279 AVG

ZiPS:  599 AB,  178 H,  39  2B,  3 3B,  30 HR,  94 RS,  125 RBI,  69 BB,  86 SO,  .297 AVG

Season:  47 Games,  176 AB,  61 H,  13 2B,  1 3B,  14 HR,  38 RS,  44 RBI,  25 BB,  28 SO,  .347 AVG

ESPN:  162 Games,  607 AB,  210 H,  45 2B,  3 3B,  48 HR,  131 RS,  152 RBI,  86 BB, 97 SO,  .347 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection:  ZiPS

Jason Kubel:

Bill James:  145 Games,  517 AB,  146 H,  33 2B,  4 3B,  22 HR,  78 RS,  89 RBI,  52 BB,  90 SO,  .282 AVG

Chone:  123 Games,  402 AB,  108 H,  22 2B,  3 3B,  15 HR,  55 RS,  63 RBI,  39 BB,  77 SO,  .269 AVG

Marcel:  454 AB,  122 H,  25 2B,  3 3B,  17 HR,  62 RS,  69 RBI,  44 BB,  88 SO,  .269 AVG

Oliver:  467 AVG,  127 H,  25 2B,  3 3B,  17 HR,  41 BB,  83 SO,  .272 AVG

ZiPS:  417 AB,  114 H,  24 2B,  3 3B,  17 HR,  59 RS,  69 RBI,  41 BB,  79 SO,  .273 AVG

Season:  40 Games,  147 AB,  49 H,  11 2B,  1 3B,  5 HR,  23 RS,  24 RBI,  10 BB,  28 SO,  .333 AVG

ESPN:  155 Games,  570 AB, 190 H,  43 2B,  4 3B,  19 HR,  89 RS,  93 RBI,  39 BB, 109 SO,  .333 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection:  Bill James

Joe Mauer:

Bill James:  138 Games,  520 AB,  168 H,  24 2B,  3 3B,  11 HR,  88 RS, 80 RBI,  78 BB,  53 SO,  .323 AVG

Chone:  132 Games,  484 AB,  152 H,  31 2B,  3 3B,  10 HR,  78 RBI,  71 RBI,  77 BB,  51 SO,  .314 AVG

Marcel:  483 AB,  154 H,  30 2B,  3 3B,  10 HR,  80 RS,  74 RBI,  71 BB,  57 SO,  .319 AVG

Oliver:  550 AB,  169 H,  31 2B,  3 3B,  11 HR,  64 BB,  62 SO,  .308 AVG

ZiPS:  540 AB,  169 H,  33 2B,  3 3B,  12 HR,  91 RS,  82 RBI,  83 BB, 56 SO,  .313 AVG

Season:  24 Games,  84 AB,  36 H, 5 2B,  0 3B,  11 HR,  26 RS,  31 RBI,  17 BB,  13 SO,  .429 AVG

ESPN:  139 Games,  487 AB,  209 H,  29 2B,  0 3B,  64 HR,  151 RS,  180 RBI,  98 BB,  75 SO,  .429 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection:  Bill James

Joe Crede:

Bill James:  131 Games,  447 AB,  111 H,  25 2B,  0 3B,  18 HR,  51 RS,  63 RBI,  29 BB,  63 SO,  .248 AVG

Chone:  126 Games,  437 AB,  110 H,  22 2B,  1 3B,  17 HR,  50 RS,  63 RBI,  29 BB,  60 SO,  .252 AVG

Marcel:  368 AB,  94 H,  19 2B,  1 3B,  16 HR,  45 RS,  56 RBI,  28 BB,  52 SO,  .255 AVG

Oliver:  357 AB,  89 H,  18 2B,  1 3B,  14 HR,  24 BB,  52 BB,  .249 AVG

ZiPS:  320 AB,  80 H,  17 2B,  0 3B,  12 HR,  35 RS,  45 RBI,  21 BB,  44 SO,  .250 AVG

Season:  34 Games,  125 AB,  30 H,  7 2B,  0 3B,  8 HR,  17 RS,  21 RBI,  11 BB,  20 SO,  .240 AVG

ESPN:  149 Games,  548 AB,  131 H,  31 2B,  0 3B,  35 HR,  75 RS,  92 RBI,  48 BB,  88 SO,  .240 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection:  Chone

Michael Cuddyer:

Bill James:  119 Games,  416 AB,  113 H,  26 2B,  3 3B,  12 HR,  62 RS,  60 RBI,  46 BB,  83 SO,  .272 AVG

Chone:  133 Games,  482 AB,  127 H,  27  2B,  3 3B,  14 HR,  73 RS,  69 RBI,  55 BB,  99 SO,  .263 AVG

Marcel:  355 AB,  95 H,  20 2B,  3 3B,  10 HR,  53 RS,  54 RBI,  39 BB,  72 SO,  .268 AVG

Oliver:  257 AB,  67 H,  14 2B,  2 3B,  8 HR,  26 BB,  52 SO,  . 263 AVG

ZiPS:  400 AB, 106 H,  23 2B,  4 3B,  12 HR,  62 RS,  62 RBI,  44 BB,  81 SO,  .265 AVG

Season:  46 Games,  172 AB,  49 H,  10 2B,  3 3B,  8 HR,  29 RS,  31 RBI,  24 BB,  31 SO,  .285 AVG

ESPN:  161 Games,  602  AB,  172 H,  35 2B,  11 3B,  28 HR,  102 RS,  109 RBI,  84 BB,  109 SO,  .285 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection:  ZiPS

Denard Span:

Bill James:  138 Games,  488 AB,  139 H,  20 2B,  6 3B,  5 HR,  82 RS,  53 RBI,  54 BB,  86 SO,  29 SB,  .285 AVG

Chone:  131 Games,  496 AB,  136 H,  24 2B,  6 3B,  5 HR,  78 RS,  51 RBI,  49 BB,  93 SO,  22 SB,  .274 AVG

Marcel:  348 AB,  102 H,  18 2B,  5 3B,  8 HR,  64 RS,  48 RBI,  46 BB,  61 SO,  14 SB,  .293 AVG

Oliver:  526 AB, 142 H,  20 2B,  6 3B,  6 HR,  49 BB,  96 SO,  .270 AVG

ZiPS:  529 AB,  143 H,  21 2B,  5 3B,  7 HR,  81 RS,  54 RBI,  51 BB,  100 SO,  27 SB,  .270 AVG

Season:  44 Games,  173 AB,  52 H,  5 2B,  2 3B,  3 HR,  26 RS,  22 RBI,  23 BB,  26 SO,  10 SB,  .301 AVG

ESPN:  159 Games,  625 AB,  188 H,  18 2B,  7 3B,  11 HR,  94 RS,  80 RBI,  83 BB,  94 SO,  36 SB,  .301 AVG

My Vote for Closest Projection:  ZiPS

There were some surprisingly low projections in among here.  Though Mauer has surprised us all with his new found power stroke, there were still some low projections for Mauer;  Morneau really got squeezed in the projections.  What are your votes for the closest projections?  Of course, we all would like to see the inflated ESPN numbers happen if all these batters can keep this pace, but we all know that batters experience ups and downs and probably not one of the ESPN projections will be accurate.