With the recent surge from all of the Twins power hitters: Morneau, Mauer, Kubel, Cuddyer, Crede and Span, I decided to look back at the well-respected baseball experts in order to see their projections for these players performances. The results were surprising. I went through all the greats: Bill James, Chone, Marcel, Oliver, and ZiPS. Then, I put down their season stats so far, and then drew up ESPN to see what they are projected at if they should keep hitting at the same rate as they are currently. Now, before you start ripping into me about using ESPN for any sort of projections, it is just to get a rough idea of what these players are capable of if they remain hitting at this same rate.
Justin Morneau:
Bill James: 161 Games, 615 AB, 177 H, 40 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 92 RS, 120 RBI, 68 BB, 94 SO, .288 AVG
Chone: 149 Games, 556 AB, 158 H, 33 2B, 3 3B, 26 HR, 83 RS, 108 RBI, 62 BB, 85 SO, .284 AVG
Marcel: 550 AB, 160 H, 35 2B, 3 3B, 24 HR, 82 RS, 106 RBI, 61 BB, 85 SO, .291 AVG
Oliver: 629 AB, 175 H, 36 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 53 BB, 99 SO, .279 AVG
ZiPS: 599 AB, 178 H, 39 2B, 3 3B, 30 HR, 94 RS, 125 RBI, 69 BB, 86 SO, .297 AVG
Season: 47 Games, 176 AB, 61 H, 13 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 38 RS, 44 RBI, 25 BB, 28 SO, .347 AVG
ESPN: 162 Games, 607 AB, 210 H, 45 2B, 3 3B, 48 HR, 131 RS, 152 RBI, 86 BB, 97 SO, .347 AVG
My Vote for Closest Projection: ZiPS
Jason Kubel:
Bill James: 145 Games, 517 AB, 146 H, 33 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 78 RS, 89 RBI, 52 BB, 90 SO, .282 AVG
Chone: 123 Games, 402 AB, 108 H, 22 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 55 RS, 63 RBI, 39 BB, 77 SO, .269 AVG
Marcel: 454 AB, 122 H, 25 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 62 RS, 69 RBI, 44 BB, 88 SO, .269 AVG
Oliver: 467 AVG, 127 H, 25 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 41 BB, 83 SO, .272 AVG
ZiPS: 417 AB, 114 H, 24 2B, 3 3B, 17 HR, 59 RS, 69 RBI, 41 BB, 79 SO, .273 AVG
Season: 40 Games, 147 AB, 49 H, 11 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 23 RS, 24 RBI, 10 BB, 28 SO, .333 AVG
ESPN: 155 Games, 570 AB, 190 H, 43 2B, 4 3B, 19 HR, 89 RS, 93 RBI, 39 BB, 109 SO, .333 AVG
My Vote for Closest Projection: Bill James
Joe Mauer:
Bill James: 138 Games, 520 AB, 168 H, 24 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 88 RS, 80 RBI, 78 BB, 53 SO, .323 AVG
Chone: 132 Games, 484 AB, 152 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 78 RBI, 71 RBI, 77 BB, 51 SO, .314 AVG
Marcel: 483 AB, 154 H, 30 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 80 RS, 74 RBI, 71 BB, 57 SO, .319 AVG
Oliver: 550 AB, 169 H, 31 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 64 BB, 62 SO, .308 AVG
ZiPS: 540 AB, 169 H, 33 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 91 RS, 82 RBI, 83 BB, 56 SO, .313 AVG
Season: 24 Games, 84 AB, 36 H, 5 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 26 RS, 31 RBI, 17 BB, 13 SO, .429 AVG
ESPN: 139 Games, 487 AB, 209 H, 29 2B, 0 3B, 64 HR, 151 RS, 180 RBI, 98 BB, 75 SO, .429 AVG
My Vote for Closest Projection: Bill James
Joe Crede:
Bill James: 131 Games, 447 AB, 111 H, 25 2B, 0 3B, 18 HR, 51 RS, 63 RBI, 29 BB, 63 SO, .248 AVG
Chone: 126 Games, 437 AB, 110 H, 22 2B, 1 3B, 17 HR, 50 RS, 63 RBI, 29 BB, 60 SO, .252 AVG
Marcel: 368 AB, 94 H, 19 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 45 RS, 56 RBI, 28 BB, 52 SO, .255 AVG
Oliver: 357 AB, 89 H, 18 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 24 BB, 52 BB, .249 AVG
ZiPS: 320 AB, 80 H, 17 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR, 35 RS, 45 RBI, 21 BB, 44 SO, .250 AVG
Season: 34 Games, 125 AB, 30 H, 7 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 17 RS, 21 RBI, 11 BB, 20 SO, .240 AVG
ESPN: 149 Games, 548 AB, 131 H, 31 2B, 0 3B, 35 HR, 75 RS, 92 RBI, 48 BB, 88 SO, .240 AVG
My Vote for Closest Projection: Chone
Michael Cuddyer:
Bill James: 119 Games, 416 AB, 113 H, 26 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 62 RS, 60 RBI, 46 BB, 83 SO, .272 AVG
Chone: 133 Games, 482 AB, 127 H, 27 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 73 RS, 69 RBI, 55 BB, 99 SO, .263 AVG
Marcel: 355 AB, 95 H, 20 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 53 RS, 54 RBI, 39 BB, 72 SO, .268 AVG
Oliver: 257 AB, 67 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 26 BB, 52 SO, . 263 AVG
ZiPS: 400 AB, 106 H, 23 2B, 4 3B, 12 HR, 62 RS, 62 RBI, 44 BB, 81 SO, .265 AVG
Season: 46 Games, 172 AB, 49 H, 10 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 29 RS, 31 RBI, 24 BB, 31 SO, .285 AVG
ESPN: 161 Games, 602 AB, 172 H, 35 2B, 11 3B, 28 HR, 102 RS, 109 RBI, 84 BB, 109 SO, .285 AVG
My Vote for Closest Projection: ZiPS
Denard Span:
Bill James: 138 Games, 488 AB, 139 H, 20 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 82 RS, 53 RBI, 54 BB, 86 SO, 29 SB, .285 AVG
Chone: 131 Games, 496 AB, 136 H, 24 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 78 RS, 51 RBI, 49 BB, 93 SO, 22 SB, .274 AVG
Marcel: 348 AB, 102 H, 18 2B, 5 3B, 8 HR, 64 RS, 48 RBI, 46 BB, 61 SO, 14 SB, .293 AVG
Oliver: 526 AB, 142 H, 20 2B, 6 3B, 6 HR, 49 BB, 96 SO, .270 AVG
ZiPS: 529 AB, 143 H, 21 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 81 RS, 54 RBI, 51 BB, 100 SO, 27 SB, .270 AVG
Season: 44 Games, 173 AB, 52 H, 5 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 26 RS, 22 RBI, 23 BB, 26 SO, 10 SB, .301 AVG
ESPN: 159 Games, 625 AB, 188 H, 18 2B, 7 3B, 11 HR, 94 RS, 80 RBI, 83 BB, 94 SO, 36 SB, .301 AVG
My Vote for Closest Projection: ZiPS
There were some surprisingly low projections in among here. Though Mauer has surprised us all with his new found power stroke, there were still some low projections for Mauer; Morneau really got squeezed in the projections. What are your votes for the closest projections? Of course, we all would like to see the inflated ESPN numbers happen if all these batters can keep this pace, but we all know that batters experience ups and downs and probably not one of the ESPN projections will be accurate.