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Anybody want to talk Draft?

The draft is less than 2 weeks away, so I thought I'd start a thread for talking about it.  The Latin American Free Agent signing period starts in early July--players who are 16 can sign with professional clubs starting then, so that's something to keep an eye on also. 

After the jump, I'll mention a few players that either have been linked to the Twins or that seem interesting to me, with the caveat that I readily admit that I don't know anything about these guys personally; just want to create a place where information can be shared.

Star-divide

The Twins have pick #22 in the first round, 46 in the comp round (Reyes), and 70 in the second round.  It's always impossible to know how the draft will unfold, but this year especially the people who follow this say there is no consensus after the first pick. 

There is one guy that has been attached to the Twins in a few places that I've seen: Jared Mitchell.  You might remember him as the Twins' 10th round pick in 2006--he was always unlikely to sign, and he didn't, choosing to go to LSU instead.  That seems to have worked out for him, as BA ranks him as their 27th best draft prospect this year, and he should get a good bonus.  His stll is seen as more of an athlete than baseball player, and his numbers aren't that impressive, but he fills up the toolbox. 

Frankly, he's not the type of player that I like to see them draft, but the Twins have regularly taken unpolished athletes early. 

I'd prefer they take more of a pure bat, though there aren't a lot of obvious choices.  Guys who are really seen as elite hitters are long gone by this point.  One guy who might be there and the Twins ought to be aware of is Bobby Borchering, a HS hitter from Fort Myers.  He's seen as maybe the top HS hitter this year, and has power.  He's a  big guy currently listed as a 3B, but will have to move to 1B or a corner OF spot as a pro. 

Other guys I've seen them attached to or that I think they might be interested in include AJ Pollock (Notre Dame OF), Max Stassi (HS Catcher), and Mike Minor, (Vanderbilt LHP). 

I'd love to hear what anyone else has heard/knows about any of the possibilities out there.

On another note, I realize it isn't my money, but I wish they were more agressive in Latin America.  They signed both Mijares and Ramos as free agents, but that's about it in terms of the current Twins or top prospects.  The other Latin players on the team are all trade acquisitions (Gomez, Liriano, Casilla), or Puerto Rican players, who are subject to the draft (Morales, Morales).  It's tough to compete with the big market teams for the top talent, and paying 2-4 million for a 16 year old is tough too, but I wish they would ocassionally target a top guy down there and go for it. 

Anyway, any thoughts on these issues?

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There's a good chance

That the Twins will take another high school outfielder that everybody else ranks as a fourth- or fifth-round prospect.

I’m really not too concerned about the draft. The Twins have one of the best scouting departments in baseball, and I completely trust them to make a good choice.

… although I wouldn’t mind seeing a great starting pitcher prospect.

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by Andersklasen on May 28, 2009 11:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

There's no question that they do a good job

they miss their fair share like anyone else, but there’s no doubt that their system produces more than its share of major leaguers. The fact that 4/5ths of their rotation was drafted by them is amazing.

Still, though you have to take the best player, things are so muddled this year that if at all possible, avoiding a pure athlete/speed OF seems wise given the state of the system.

There’s a guy named LeVon Washington who is exactly their type of guy—undersized HS outfielder who is apparently the fastest guy in this draft. BA ranks him as the 29th best prospect—he wouldn’t be surprise.

by Eric in Madison on May 28, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair

They drafted Revere, who was rated between second and third round by most teams. But that was the only similar draft choice they’ve made. Hicks was rated a top 10 overall pick by BA and the Twins got him at #15 overall. The only other high school outfielders they’ve drafted in the last 15 years are Garbe and Hunter. Garbe was a total bust, but he was rated a top 10 overall player and a five-tool player by BA. Hunter turned out OK, I think.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 28, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doh!

Right, so they’ve drafted five center field prospects in the first round in the last 15 years. Four of them turned out well (assuming Revere and Hicks don’t have career-ending injuries). One was a bust. Four out of five is a good ratio.

Other positions in that time frame (sandwich round excluded):

Starting pitcher (3/7): Ard, Banks, Johnson, Perkins, Waldrop, Garza, Gutierrez (assuming Gutierrez turns out OK and Waldrop does not)

Catcher: (1/3): Veritek, Parks, Mauer

Shortstop (1/2): Cuddyer, Plouffe (jury is till out on Plouffe, but he’s unlikely to be a first-round talent as a major leaguer)

Corner infielder (0-2): Lee, Moses
 
I’m not saying they should draft another high school center field prospect. It’s just not been a bad strategy for them in the past, especially relative to other positions

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 29, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Easy on the projections

Lets say that Revere and Hicks are still on track, instead of saying they’ve turned out well. First round picks haven’t turned out well until they make above average contributions at the major league level.

On that note, lets say that Rever, Hicks and Span are looking good so far. 1 year isn’t enough to know for span.

by snolls on May 31, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DIfferent criterion

My criterion on those ratios is that they are not busts. For example, of the three catchers the Twins drafted in the first round in the last three years, one was not a bust from the Twins perspective. Guys could have career-ending injuries at any time. It’s ot especially likely, but Revere or Hicks could regress.

I suppose you need like 2000 major league at bats to determine whether a guy is a real major leaguer or not. Where you draw that line is arbitrary. From my perspective, Span has crossed the threshold of being a bust.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 31, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Varitek turned out pretty well...

…just not for us. Then again, if we had signed Varitek, would Pierzynski ever have become our catcher, thus would we have made the famous trade with San Francisco for Nathan-Liriano-Bonser? Would we have drafted Mauer #1 overall?

by Adam Peterson on Jun 1, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hindsight

I still think Prior was the better pick. Who’s he with these days? The Dundas Dukes?

by wcooley on Jun 1, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

-1

Really?

because I distinctly remember wanting us to take
Joe Mauer first and if not then Maybe Mark Teixera $ strapped and all.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 2, 2009 3:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm kidding

The Dundas Dukes are a town team

by wcooley on Jun 2, 2009 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No More OF's

With many of our besr prospects being in the outfield, I think the Twins will look at College pitching in the first round or supplemental. The player whom I’d like to see them take is HS SS Jiovanni Mier. He’s projected as the best PURE short stop out of the draft and it’s an area for the Twins that begs (cries and whimpers) for an upgrade througout the system. Ramon Santana has been hot and Plouffe is still young and learning, but it could never hurt to draft a toolsy SS early with hopes of shoring up the infield for the future when the outfield is lookinf pretty good.

by Icedover on May 28, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Best player available

I think they always go with the BPA in the early rounds regardless of position.

by wcooley on May 28, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Even if he’s an outfielder.

If it’s between four guys who are rated the same and one of them is a middle infielder, I hope they choose the middle infielder. It’s their weakest position organizationally. I’ll be publishing a blog post about the Twins middle infield depth (or lack thereof) this weekend.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on May 28, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I get the impression that there's real questions

as to whether Mier is going to be able to hit enough to play. He is the unusual HS SS who scouts think will be able to stay there.

by Eric in Madison on May 28, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

The last thing we need is a guy who can’t hit. Do we really need another Punto or Tolbert?

by DaTwins on May 29, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see us taking either....

The Best possible player that I would like if he fell to us is Tim Wheeler OF Sacramento State – HE WILL BE REALLY GOOD

More realistic guys though are: -all of these players are prep guys (high school)

OF Mike Trout
SS Jiovanni Mier
1B/3B Bobby Borchering

or SP Tyler Skaggs or SP Chad Jenkins….

as for college players Mike Minor would be nice but I don’t he falls that far…. SP MIke Leake is someone I am 100% certain the Twins would take if he fell to #22….(doubt it in both cases)

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 28, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Do you think there's a realistic chance that Wheeler falls that far?

there are so few college bats I think someone will snatch him up. Oddly, one guy who is falling is the guy who was seen at the start of the year as the best college bat—Grant Green from USC. It’s not impossible that he falls, in which case I’d take him, poor year or not. He probably won’t get that far, though.

Minor won’t be there, you’re right. I could see any of those guys you listed except probably Skaggs—I don’t think they will take a HS arm in a year when they only have the 1 first round pick.

by Eric in Madison on May 28, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1 on Grant Green

If by some way, some reason he does fall I think we have to take him

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 31, 2009 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Minor will be there at 22. Well he should be anyways. I hope that (in a later round) they take UNC 3B Kyle Seager. Not a lot of power but a good on base guy with a pretty good glove. I hope they don’t take Mier, he just flat can’t hit. I wouldn’t mind Rex Brothers or Borchering. If they take an OF I hope it’s a guy like AJ Pollock rather than a high risk/high reward type guy

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by fetch9 on May 28, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heard Mike Minor may go as high as 3 to Padres

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/draft-roundup-pirates-padres-angels.html
Another strapped for cash pick… and that worked so well with Matt Bush. :)

I have no Idea who the Twins will pick but I’m pretty sure that Wheeler, Green, and Max Stassi will be off the board.

My best guess is Trout or Jiovanni Mier or a collage starter that falls down the draft.

"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"

by maxisagod on May 30, 2009 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As usual

Pick the guy with the best available name.

by ianmader on May 29, 2009 1:40 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

guys i think twins will look at.

bobby borchering
jiovanni Mier
Eric Arnett
Mike Trout
Mike Leake

I’m not sure we’d draft Jarrod Mitchell again, as we drafted him a few years back and failed to sign him.

by hotshotschamp on May 29, 2009 5:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

See, I think that's an indication they might draft him again

it’s clear that they liked him at one point, maybe they still do. There’s nothing bad about failing to sign someone who goes to college—especially in this situation. It wasn’t like he screwed them—he fell to the 10th round because people thought he was going to college, and that’s what he did. The Twins liked him and took a flyer to see if they could get him, but I’m sure they knew it was a longshot.

by Eric in Madison on May 29, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

baseball america

said they probably won’t draft him again

by DaTwins on May 29, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would be absolutey thrilled if SP Mike Leake somehow fell to us

I just feel Like he’d be a near perfect fit for our system and has good control, knows how to throw strikes

But I thought Shooter Hunt was at least a decent to good fit for our system when we took him in the Supplemental round last year… umm …and thats turned out to be froogle.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 31, 2009 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i just dont think we will take mitchell

maybe if we didn’t add revere, benson, morales and hicks since his draft.

Anything is possible i know and bpa this and that….i just don’t see it. Would i be devestated if we did…naw

by hotshotschamp on May 29, 2009 3:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would really like Borchering

To get a really good corner infielder that has the bat to DH if he can’t stay at third base would be awesome. Its been too long since the Twins had a real top hitting prospect

by DaTwins on May 29, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I think he'd be a good pick

since I doubt any real good college bats will be there. I think he might be gone though, too.

by Eric in Madison on May 29, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Scheppers

I want to see Tanner Scheppers pitch for the Saints before the draft, can anyone figure out when he pitches at home next? To tell you the truth I don’t even know if the Saints go with a 4 or 5 man rotation.

"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"

by maxisagod on May 30, 2009 11:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Small article in Washington Post this morning...

NOT about the Twins, rather Rizzo, Nat’s defacto GM discussing how they prepare for the draft.

I think he was a good draft guy for Arizona a few years back?

He said that they focus on their top 90 rated players (based on talent alone). Basically they pick down that list until it is finished. He mentioned in his best year, that list actually got his team through Round 11.

Since there would have been a minimum of 300+ players taken to get that far, MAYBE there is a lot of differences of opinion between scouts & teams as to whom are the best 100 players. I haven’t really looked at BA’s Top 100 players, and how long it takes for ALL 100 to be drafted each year, yet I found the concept interesting.

Maybe if the Twins do something similar, IF Revere started at say 25th on their list, he was the top player still available when he was drafted.

After the 90 are gone, then they (Nat’s) will consider organizational need in addition to talent.

Regards,

I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!

by the Dragon on Jun 1, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Take

a Florida St. Seminole. 37 runs? College Baseball, does the fun ever start?

by wcooley on Jun 1, 2009 7:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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