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Anybody Want to Talk Mauer?

Maybe I'll make this into a regular series...the "Anybody Want to Talk...?" series.  Anyway, Charlie Walters has a brief piece in the Pioneer Press about Mauer's future with the Twins.  He quotes Jerry Bell, who says nothing of substance, and suggests that negotiations might begin soon after the All-Star break.  I thought we might use that as a jumping-off point to talk about how this might go and what it might take to sign him. 

 

Star-divide

As we know, Joe Mauer's current contract expires after the 2010 season, during which he will be 27 years old.  Obviously a player entering free agency in his prime--a rare and valuable thing. 

First, I want to discuss, and dispense with, the "hometown discount" idea-a phrase that Walters uses and irritates me to no end.  It might be that staying in Minnesota has some monetary value to Mauer, but you can't go into negotiations begging him to take less.  You can't take on the role of victim to the big markets-as much as you might think it's unfair, this is a business, and you have to bring your best game, not approach it with a woe-is-me attitude. 

Now, for the factors that will affect the negotiations:

1. I think you have to start as soon as possible, because the earlier you do, the more risk you are allieviating from Mauer's perspective, which has some value.  Obviously, waiting until he's actually a free agent is a non-starter-at that point, you aren't offering him any risk reduction against serious injury.

2. He's a catcher.  That cuts both ways: he's incredibly valuable at that position, but of course catchers don't generally have long careers, at least as catchers.  Most catchers move in their early 30s. 

3. He's smack in his prime--most guys don't get to free agency until they are on the wrong side of 30.  Of course he's also a brilliant player. 

Frankly, there aren't a lot of guys who have signed free agent contracts that you can compare him to.  There hasn't been a great catcher in his prime in recent years that has signed a free agent contract in quite awhile.  Mike Piazza signed with the Mets at age 30 in 2000-that's actually the most relevant catcher comparison, I think. He got 80+ million for 6 years--a decade ago.  Jorge Posada signed a 4 yr/50+ million extension with the Yankees--when he was 36.  Ivan Rodriguez signed with Detroit 4/40 at age 32, but he was seen as largely used up.  He had been forced to take a 1 year deal the year before to reestablish his value. 

Let's look at some other postion players who have become free agents at 27-28 in recent years: 

1. Mark Teixeira.  8/189 with the Yankees.  Biggest position player deal of the off-season.  He's a first baseman, 29 years old this year.

2. Alex Rodriguez: 10/252 with the Rangers in 2001.  Whatever anyone wants to say about it, there's an argument that he's been worth it, he's been so good.  Of coruse, he got traded and renegotiated, but the original deal was as above.  He was 25 his first year in Texas, which is one of the things that made him so valuable.

3. Carlos Beltran, 7/120 with the Mets in 2005.  He was exactly the same age (to the month) as Mauer will be after 2010. 

One thing I'd like to say about big free agent contracts for position players: for the absolute best players, who sign in their prime, they actually tend to work out fairly well.  Beltran has been quietly brilliant for the Mets.  Rodriguez, whatever else you want to say, has been a great, great player.  Manny Ramirez, however it ended, signed an 8 year deal with the Red Sox and was truly great, and helped lead them to 2 championships.  Jeter (one I didn't mention because it was an extention avoiding arbitration) got 10/189 and he's been pretty freaking great.

Taking all of that into account, here's what I would like to see, and what I think might get it done sometime between now and the beginning of next season--after that all bets are off.  A 7 year extension (beginning in 2011) with an AAV of $22 million= 7/154.  That's a little less per year than Teixeira, and one fewer year, but he'd be getting it a year+ prior to free agency, which has some value.  That keeps him in a Twins uniform through 2017 and his age 34 season.  Another alternative is to try for something like 10/200--lower AAV but an insanely long committment.  He'd be 37 when that deal ended, and almost certainly no longer playing catcher, but it might be worth it. 

Anyway, what say you?

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments

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Screwed

The Twins are screwed.

by wcooley on May 31, 2009 7:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You think so?

Could be. I think they could get it done if they changed their attitude about these things somewhat. Always pleading poverty is not a good approach.

Here’s the question, though. Say they start negotiating this year and it doesn’t go well. If they reach the off-season and are unwilling to pay what he wants, do they try to trade him? Another Santana situation would not be a good thing.

by Eric in Madison on May 31, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dont think

Mauer has as strong of a no-trade provision that Santana had, that was the biggest problem with the Santana situation.

by guinness junky on Jun 1, 2009 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is what I think is going to happen....

Joe Mauer is going to be the first one in the ballpark and the last one to leave the park day in and day out for the rest of the season….

Joe Mauer may flirt with batting .400 -Ted Williams esque..

Joe Mauer will hit 25 homers

Joe Mauer will be a top 3 MVP candidate ….and then in the off-season he will re-sgign a lucrative deal with us for less than what Justin Morneau makes and won’t think twice about it.

Mr Class.

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 31, 2009 11:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good god

I wouldn’t let him sign for less than what Justin Morneau makes. That isn’t classy, that’s nuts.

Frankly, and I know it sounds a little weird, I’d be a little annoyed if he signed for much less than his value on the market. Why should the Pohlads reap that profit? I’d much rather it go to Mauer. Further, this organization shouldn’t be able to get away with pleading poverty. They can make the choice themselves, but they can afford to pay him market rates.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 1, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

kill bill

smith if he isn’t signed

by ianmader on Jun 1, 2009 2:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Twins are getting a new ballpark so they can hang on to and get some better guys. If they don’t people will not be happy

by Zoxide on Jun 1, 2009 3:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

7 years / $150M

Offer that, and it’s a deal. As you say, he’s signed through age 34, effectively through his entire prime. Maybe add a couple vesting options beyond that to seal the deal.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 1, 2009 9:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

On the face of it, I like this. A lot.

May as well just get it done. What 26 year old Minnesota boy turns down $150 mil to be Kirby 2.0?

by JopeX37 on Jun 2, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"Hometown Discount"

I don’t know that I expect Mauer to take a hometown discount, but I would think that, given an equivalent offer from the Twins and, say, the Yankees, he would be savvy enough to know that the Twins are probably a better option overall. In New York, he’s just another highly-paid guy, not much different than Texiera, or Giambi a decade ago, and in 20 years, he’ll have a Hall of Fame plaque with a Yankees cap like 25 other guys. In Minnesota, he’s the biggest star in the history of Minnesota sports, and in 20 years there’s a statue of him outside the stadium. If he’s at all concerned with his legacy, that’s a plus for re-signing.

I think the Twins will pony up, and he’ll get a deal kind of like what Eric’s suggesting.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 1, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Legacy

It just depends on what he wants his legacy to be. If he wants to be the biggest thing in Minnesota, your scenario works.

If he wants to be known as the best player/catcher in baseball, possibly in history, he may need to head to a bigger stage with a team that is constantly in the World Series hunt, and not a team that middles around trying to win the AL Central.

If he plays 15 years, he will be in the hall of fame, no matter where he plays, but often times player’s legacies get determined by what they do in the post season, and he may want to play somewhere where he has a higher probability of getting there each and every year.

by guinness junky on Jun 1, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Counterexample

This is true, although I can come up with an example where it mattered the other way – I think it’s far less likely that Kirby Puckett makes the Hall of Fame if he doesn’t play his whole career with the Twins. Mauer is certainly on track to be more than the marginal Hall of Famer Puckett was, but I do think that continuity comes into play when considering players historically, rightly or wrongly.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 1, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bell's position is assinine

It’s why we couldn’t come to terms with Hunter or Santana. We waited too long. If they don’t sign Mauer, this town is coming at the Twins front offices with pitch forks and torches.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 1, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Its worth remembering

that the Twins don’t pay everyone, but have paid when they really felt they have a generational type player.

They felt that way with Puckett, and made him the first 3 million dollar man in baseball. They will likely to the same (i.e. make a very serious offer) with Mauer.

They may not be able to outbid Boston or the Yanks, but they can be competitive and do have certain benefits that, provided they align with Mauer’s career ambitions, should be enough to retain him.

by guinness junky on Jun 1, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lets get an insider Bio of Joe Mauer's agent

that would be cool

Because I wan’t to see/know just how modest Joe is being ‘tinkered’ with, if even is at all right now….

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 2, 2009 3:48 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Years

The big issue on this contract is going to be years. The Twins are going to have to pony up, in years and dollars, but they should put their foot down on years. I wouldn’t go over 6 years. Even if you have to pay some extra dollars to keep it below that level, you have no idea what Mauer will be like in 8 or 10 years.

by snolls on Jun 2, 2009 8:03 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

correction

If Mauer really demands 10 years, then the Twins need a big discount to go that long. It all comes down to wieghing the terms, but I think length is the big risk for the team. If you sign him to a 10 year, $300 million contract, and he gets injured in year 5, the team is handicapped for 5 years.

by snolls on Jun 2, 2009 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

A 10 year contract sounds about right. I would love to see Mauer playing for Minnesota when I am in the ground.

I can outrun a mule deer.

by Gonzo2 on Jun 2, 2009 7:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

tough to see when you're dead

Just saying :-)

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 3, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We should have a Mauer meter

Kind of like that National Debt meter in New York.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 3, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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