Joe Mauer, WARrior
by Jesse on May 31, 2009 6:18 PM EDT
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After just four weeks being back in action, Joe Mauer has already accumulated a WAR rating of 2.6. WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is an accumulating number that measures a player's worth. At 2.6, Mauer is already fifth in all of baseball.
Is it really a surprise? After a month of hitting .414/.500/.838 with 11 home runs, the answer is no. One of every three fly balls is leaving the yard, walk rates are at a career high, and on top of it all he's swinging at fewer pitches than ever (just 31.4%).
Looking at his batted ball results, apart from that HR/FB rate things aren't overly impressive. 19.8% line drives, 45.3% ground balls, 34.9% fly balls; no charted infield flies however, which is amazing.
What makes Joe so good, or has made him so unstoppable this month, is his ability to put the ball wherever the hell he wants it. Comparing his line drive rate to his .417 BABIP, you'd consider him to be lucky. But with Mauer we're not talking about just another player, we're talking about one of the best hitters in the game over the last twenty years much less the last five. Superior plate control, knowledge of the strike zone, quick hands and the ability to read pitches and understand the situation make him someone you simply have to stop and watch whenever he steps in.
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Thanks Jesse
I really wanted to have Scandal in my head this early in the morning.
Seriously though, I was also really surprised to see Joe Mauer’s line drive rate about where it usually is. I really think it’s misleading though, because he seems to be hitting the ball really hard, whether it’s on the ground, on a line, or in the air. The fact that he hasn’t hit an infield popup yet is a testament to that. While his BABIP and HR/FB are sure to regress, I don’t think they will regress as far as one would expect. Once we have better hit data, like speed off bat, etc. instead of just grouping every ball into 3 categories we’ll have a much better idea of what a player’s BABIP “should” be.
by lookatthosetwins on Jun 1, 2009 8:02 AM EDT reply actions
Scary thing about WAR
is that he’s “earned” $11.9M in the one month, and this does not consider his defensive skills or other numbers that don’t distill into wOBA (baserunning, directional hitting, etc.)
Every week we wait to sign him makes him more and more expensive. Boston and New York are salivating.
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