Bullpen Options on the Free Agent Market
A short list, examining a few pitchers who are without homes.
While starting pitching hasn't exactly been stellar, the difference in talent available between the rotation and the bullpen is something more than marginal. With the exception of Joe Nathan, there are no irreplaceable parts; and only Matt Guerrier owns the only other acceptable bullpen performance. Jose Mirjares may join those ranks, but after just 4.2 innings with the Twins so far I'm not counting any chickens.
Going into Tuesday night's game with the Tigers, the Twins bullpen had thrown 72.1 innings...or just over 31% of the staff's innings. This means that for every nine-inning game, the bullpen is picking up about 2.2 innings with the starters responsible for 6.1. For how much flack this rotation has had in regards to not going long enough, to this point on the whole they haven't been horribly short either. Could they go longer? Absolutely. But they aren't forcing Ron Gardenhire to stretch his bullpen too much. Only two bullpens in the American League, Kansas City (a much better bullpen than ours) and Los Angeles (a much worse bullpen than ours), have thrown fewer innings.
In spite of what I'd call a manageable workload, the Twins 2009 bullpen has posted a 5.72 ERA in those 72.1 innings. They're fairly middle of the road in terms of strikeout rates, walk rates, base runners and opponent OPS (giving a reason why the traditional ERA is so much higher than FIP, at 4.88), but they're clearly struggling in terms of run prevention. Only four bullpens in all of baseball strand fewer base runners than the Twins.
There are internal options to consider. But who is still on the market, and is there anyone that could lend a bit of credibility, reliability and an air of confidence to our relief corps?
The Intriguing Bullpen Free Agents
We'll start with the positives. Burgos is 25, throws heat in the mid-90's, has a penchant for strikeouts and has stranded three quarters of his base runners in his MLB experience. That's the good news.
The bad news is that, like everyone else on this list, there are reasons these guys are still free agents. Burgos has had issues with control in the past, and I'm not just talking about being inconsistent around the strike zone. He was arrested and later convicted of assaulting his girlfriend late in 2008, just one month into a rehab stint following some time off for Tommy John surgery. There's a reason this guy hasn't been tendered a contract, and I'm not comfortable with the Twins being the team who gives him a second chance.
Didn't he retire? He's not listed as retired. Foulke had an alright year in Oakland in 2008, but he was king of the gopherball. Besides, a marginal 36-year old whose fastball may or may not win a race to the plate in competition with a fastball from Livan Hernandez isn't the answer.
Lopez is a 34-year old right-hander with a 3.78 ERA in 270.1 innings. He'll strike a few guys out while walking a few. Good history of stranding base runners, does a fairly good job of keeping the ball in the park and for the most part doesn't profile as a horrible pitcher. The Korean Baseball Organization realized this and the Kia Tigers signed him back in January.
Converting A Starter?
Those were aren't all of the free agent bullpen arms, but there really aren't any truly good options. If the Twins want to improve their bullpen via free agents, perhaps their best option is to convert a starter?
Sure, Pedro wants $5 million. But it's not like teams are lining up to sweep him off his expensive feet. He's an injury risk, possibly a character risk if he feels he isn't being used appropriately and obviously a financial risk, but what if he's not opposed to a few months audition as a set-up man? Being able to let it all go for an inning may give him a bit more pop, and a strikeout threat in the bullpen is always a good thing. Unfortunately, even if he would be willing to step into a bullpen role as a way to get back onto a roster, he'd want to play for a contender. Right now, that label excludes the Twins.
Conclusions
With Jesse Crain back back and Mijares showing good signs of life, coupling them with Guerrier and Nathan make for the beginnings of a decent bullpen. Getting Craig Breslow's confidence back would be another boost. But it doesn't matter how we look at it, right now this is a bullpen in a state of 9-1-1.
Free agent options are available, but right now the more feasible and realistic options are all in Rochester. Even once those options are considered and exhausted, a trade would be more likely than the signing of a Martinez or a Burgos.
Of course in a happy world, the guys we have just get it together. It's hard to be as bad as the Twins have been, and to continue to be as bad as they've been, even with the collection of arms they've assembled.
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Comments
I think the Twins will look within first
Bill Smith is in New Britain taking a look at Slama and Delaney. Coincidence? I don’t think so.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 6, 2009 9:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see those guys in September.
But hell, at this point, they might actually be improvements.
by Jesse on May 6, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Going outside of the Org rarely works for the Twins
I think if there is a solution it has to be from within. And just to be snarky, why didn’t the Twins sign Cruz again?
by caluofmn on May 6, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bill Smith talked about this very thing on the pregame show on Sunday
He said they wanted Cruz, but they could give up a first-round draft pick for a guy who would be with the team for one or two years. I can’t say I disagree with him. When you think about what you should get with a first-round pick (six years at minimum of a quality player) it’s a lot to give up for a short-term solution.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 6, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta pay to play....
since they dont spend money, the Twins should have traded prospects/draft pick to bolster the weakest part of the Team. Is losing one draft pick going to topple the organization? The Twins have a history of picking players well before other teams would, so its likely they would still find value with the remaining picks.
by guinness junky on May 6, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A first rounder?
You would give up a Hicks or a Gutierrez or a Revere or a Garza for one or two years of Cruz? I sure wouldn’t. The reason the Royals could sign him and the Twins couldn’t is their first rounder was protected, so Arizona gets their second rounder instead.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 6, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which one of those players
is helping us this year?
by guinness junky on May 6, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think if the front office
felt that Juan Cruz was “the missing piece”, they would have went and got him. But there are too many missing pieces still.
So for 2009 the mantra is what it’s been for the last few years, and will probably continue to be until that rare season where everything is in place: do what keeps us the most competetive in the long term.
I would have preferred Juan Cruz to who we have, but I definitely won’t burn Smith or the Twins for not giving up a 1st round pick for him.
by Jesse on May 6, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well
I am more burning him for not doing anything, but honestly if a single draft pick is what is keeping this organization from falling apart, we are in bigger trouble than I thought.
by guinness junky on May 6, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gutierrez
Will be here sooner rather than later. And he’ll be better than Cruz. You can’t keep playing for this year and have sustainable success.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 6, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe...
though who was the last pitcher the Twins promoted 3 levels in one year?
When was the last time this organization played for “this year”?
by guinness junky on May 6, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Garza
2004
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 7, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that was 2006...
but he didnt come up until August. If our pen keeps things up, it wont matter when Guiteriez gets here….and I am not counting on him ripping through the minors like Garza did…I think the Twins realized that was a mistake.
by guinness junky on May 7, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2004 was the year the Twins played for this year
Just to clarify.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 7, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2004?
The team played better than expected, but I would hardly call that a season where they “played to win” that year. I dont think any of the moves the Twins made were received at the time as a sign that they were “playing for this year”
by guinness junky on May 7, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your opinion
If you mean by “play to win” that the Twins would trade three-to-five of our top prospects for a big bat in the middle of the line-up and a top reliever for the bullpen, then no, they didn’t “play to win”.
If you mean they added the equivalent in calling up Jesse Crain and Jason Kubel and starting their clocks early, then they definitely played to win.
You seem to think that the only way to play to win is by going outside the organization. I vehemently disagree.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 7, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You seem to think that the only way to play to win is by going outside the organization. I vehemently disagree.
So do I, because I never said that. I do think you have to go outside of the organization to fill needs that you can not fill internally — see our bullpen.
by guinness junky on May 7, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I dont think any of the moves the Twins made were received at the time as a sign that they were "playing for this year"
Unless you were unaware of the moves, the implication is that bringing up Morneau, Crain and Kubel were not received as “playing for this year.”
My recollection of the blogosphere that year is that lots of guys were crying for Morneau and Kubel in particular, and to a lesser degree Crain, as the means towards winning in 2004.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 7, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And you may be right about 2004
I forgot that they also dumped Doug M finally for Morneau..and probably the best example of when a team can play for the present and future at the same time, but those situations seem to be far between. It certainly would have been nice if we could have brought up a pitcher or two last year to put out the fire in the bullpen. And it wouldnt have cost us a ton, I dont recall the what Bradford or Hawkins cost their respective teams last year, but I dont think it was much.
by guinness junky on May 7, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree on Bradford
Not sure about Hawkins. Guardado was not the answer.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 7, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We gave up not "a Garza" but thee Garza
for Delmon “Skates” Young so why not a Garza for Cruz who could be helping us now.
by caluofmn on May 6, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Garza for Cruz
would have certainly been an improvement over what we actually got for Garza…
by guinness junky on May 6, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oh the fickleness of fans
what if Cruz came in to Minnesota after we give up a Garza like player and pitches like Luis Ayala. You would once again be claiming that it was one of the worst trades in Twins history. D-Young and Harris and Pridie may not have been the best trade for Garza/Bartlett/Morlan but at the time it appeared to be an even swap of players. Tampa appeared to get what they needed and we got what we needed.
It turns out that right now the trade has been in favor of Tampa. However, the reasons behind the Twins trading Garza was not because they did not see him as a good pitcher/All-Star, but because he would not listen to his coaches when they told him to throw more offspeed pitches than just a fastball. That is why the Twins kept on sending him down because they thought they needed to discipline him….much in the same way as Tampa is doing with David Price. However, Garza continued to throw his fastball 95% of the time and they determined that instead of having the clubhouse cancer, they would trade him for something they needed: a right handed power bat, with some speed.
by 33MorneauMVP on May 7, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just talking about value we recieved....
Just to be clear, I am not saying we trade a Garza level actual prospect for Cruz, but just that we would have gotten more value if we did.
D-Young and Harris and Pridie may not have been the best trade for Garza/Bartlett/Morlan but at the time it appeared to be an even swap of players.
It never appeared to be an even swap to me.
However, the reasons behind the Twins trading Garza was not because they did not see him as a good pitcher/All-Star, but because he would not listen to his coaches when they told him to throw more offspeed pitches than just a fastball.
Which is why the Twins shouldn’t have rushed him, he got through 3 levels of minor league ball not throwing his offspeed stuff enough…who’s fault is that? The Twins rewarded him by bringing him up…again, who’s fault it that?
However, Garza continued to throw his fastball 95% of the time and they determined that instead of having the clubhouse cancer, they would trade him for something they needed: a right handed power bat, with some speed.
And the company line about Garza being a bad seed has no credibility when you trade him for a guy who threw a bat at an umpire and doesn’t listen to coaches. And Young stopped hitting homeruns when he got to AAA, wake me when he starts to hit them again.
by guinness junky on May 7, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate myself for saying this...
but that attitude adds weight to what Johan used to say. If this team isn’t willing to sacrifice to give themselves the best chance to win a title then are they just happy to compete?
I’m glad I get to root for a team that always seems to have a chance but it is frustrating to see alot of promise and the org not doing the best it can to supplement it w/ talent to put it over the top. I know there are no guareentees but as fan I want to see the effort.
One prospect wouldn’t ruin the farm. The Twins have proven they can find great farm hands. But sometimes the org should be willing to go out and get a Morris or whoever to take their shot. I know, I know not a good example.
i have to wonder if the season doesn’t go well and the pen is a big reason for it whether Smith will admit that maybe getting a Cruz would have been worth the prospect?
by caluofmn on May 6, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would hope so....
have to wonder if the season doesn’t go well and the pen is a big reason for it whether Smith will admit that maybe getting a Cruz would have been worth the prospect?
but I would also hope that he is admitting this on the way out the door. We needed help in the pen last year, and he failed to make a move. If we add a decent arm, we are likely in the playoffs. He failed again to address the issue in the offseason. If it costs us again this season, he is flat out incompetent and needs to move on.
by guinness junky on May 6, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't move that quickly.
The last thing I’d want from this organization is to play into the “results now” crowd by outing a GM after three seasons. Terry Ryan didn’t always make the best moves, either. It takes time to build things, and we’re only one month into Smith’s second season as GM. Baseball is a long and patient game, and while you never want to wait to long, the only way I’d be willing to cut a GM loose after three seasons would be if he had a track record of a guy like Bill Bavasi, who just made one bad decision after another.
by Jesse on May 6, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TR made SOME good moves though
What exactly has BS done? Traded a budding ace for one of the worst left fielders in baseball? Failed to address the bullpen when it was the biggest reason why we did not make the playoffs last year? Its not like that was any big secret.
I know the Twin’s motto is to do enough to compete and just hope the stars align and we make the playoffs, but it gets pretty annoying as a fan. So does the whole “wait till next year” mentality that permeates upper management. This mentality squandered several years when we had the best pitcher in the game, and will squander the years that we have the most valuable player in the game.
by guinness junky on May 6, 2009 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think if the season
doesn’t go well, there will be more reasons for it than the absence of one more reliable bullpen arm.
by Jesse on May 6, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Besides
Cruz ain’t that great. He’s got great stuff, but half the time he doesn’t know where it’s going.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 6, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This much is true.
But I’d still rather have him than Luis Ayala.
by Jesse on May 6, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've said it before and I'll say it again, presenting "The House that Bill Smith Built"
Ladies and Gentlemen, your 2009 Minnesota Twins Bullpen:

by montanatwinsfan on May 6, 2009 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent, but...
I think we need to photoshop the bullpen guys’ heads into this picture. My other idea is to get a picture of Scorpion performing his fatality in Mortal Kombat (after he’s pulled off his mask) and replacing the head with that of Luis Ayala.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on May 6, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see Ayala in there
Must have been moonlighting.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 6, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Derrick Turnbow
He’s a free agent…What do you guys think of this guy?
by Tony_O on May 7, 2009 12:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Done. Been done for a few years now.
Which is exactly why we may bring him in.
by Adam Peterson on May 8, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cruz is not the answer
cmath and guiness junky, you’re looking at this from two different angles.
Would the loss of one first round draft pick topple the organization? No.
Would the addition of Juan Cruz in our bullpen make this team a title contender? No. It would help, but the lack of offensive production and consistent quality starting pitching may be hurting us more this year.
The real question is whether the marginal improvement due to signing Cruz was worth giving up the first round pick. If we were truly one bullpen arm away, then yes. Unfortunately, we are 2-3 bullpen arms and have holes elsewhere (hopefully just due to slumps and slow starts…)
by Adam Peterson on May 8, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It is worth nothing...
that the bullpen is particularly weak because of the 2 guys we did bring in, Ayala and Dickey. I would certainly take the 1.05 WHIP and .159 BAA Cruz is sporting over what those two have put up. So not only do you get a very good reliever, but you DONT get one of those two. That is more than a marginal improvement. He probably wouldnt have put us over the top, but we would be a lot closer than we are.
by guinness junky on May 8, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good points re: Ayala and Dickey
Neither one has been very good. And yes, you have to look at the improvement relative to who Cruz would be replacing.
However, let’s really compare the three:
Cruz: 13.1 IP, 7 H, 7 BB, 1 HR, 10 SO, .179 BABIP, 4.24 FIP, 23.5 LD%
Ayala: 13.1 IP, 20 H, 3 BB, 1 HR, 9 SO, .399 BABIP, 3.71 FIP, 23.3 LD%
Dickey: 16.1 IP, 22 H, 10 BB, 3 HR, 13 SO, .365 BABIP, 6.00 FIP, 15.8 LD%
Looking at FIP, Ayala has actually outpitched Cruz, who has been greatly helped by a .179 BABIP. Ayala has been quite unlucky, with a .399 BABIP even though the two have an almost identical LD%. Dickey is just nowhere close to the other two.
In a vacuum, would I rather have Cruz than Ayala? Yes. However, based on the peripherals, one can argue that Ayala has actually outpitched Cruz, but has been much less lucky.
Also remember that Kansas City didn’t end up giving up a first round pick for Cruz either…they had already given up their pick for Kyle Farnsworth.
by Adam Peterson on May 8, 2009 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and my additional point
was that since the Twins often take players earlier than other teams ever would, it seems like we could minimize the loss of a first rounder better than other teams could.
by guinness junky on May 8, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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