This post compares RS and RA allowed through the first 30 games of 2009 and 2008. What I am interested in is whether 2008's offensive production was really an anomoly, or a sustainable trend. Much has been about BA with RISP, as well as other factors. This analysis is much simpler than that. I am simply comparing the runs scored and runs allowed through the similar number of games, and letting the greater community derive what conclusions you will from it.

With that said, here are the numbers:

2009                                      2008

14W, 16L                               16W, 14L

RS: 135     RA: 158                RS: 124        RA: 130

As you can see, the 2009 offense has produced more runs so far than the 2008 offense. The win total is also close, with 2008 taking the lead by going 5-0 in games 26-30, whereas 2009 we went 2-3 in games 26-30.

Perhaps the most interesting thing is looking at the average, median, and standard deviations of the data sets.

Offensively the numbers are very similar:

2009                                      2008

Average RS: 4.5                    Average RS: 4.13

Median RS:  4                        Median RS:  4

Stdev:           3.49                   Stdev:           3.37

Looking at the runs allowed, however, tells the story of 2009 in a nutshell:

2009                                    2008

Average RA: 5.27                Average RA: 4.33

Median RA:   5                     Median RA:   4

Stdev:            3.19                Stdev:           3.19

In essence, our pitching staff/defense is almost a full run worse than last year's team. If we can get our pitching staff to return to its 2008 form, we should be poised to make a good run in the AL Central.

Terms:

Average--I think we all know what average is

Median--50% of the data set is above this number, and 50% is below it. Helps cancel out the effect of outliers in a data set (for example, would minimize the effect of Cleveland's 20+ run game, giving a better overall idea of their offense).

Standard Deviation (stdev)--tells us how variable the data set is--a higher number means that there was not much consistency, whereas a lower number means that most of the numbers are pretty close to each other.