Twins Select Four College Pitchers On Day One
Nothing preppy about Minnesota's top four picks.
Pick #22: Kyle Gibson, RHP
U Missouri Columbia
Age: 21
Looking around the 'net at scouting reports on Gibson, there are a lot of things that come up every time.
- Three-pitch pitcher, leading with a solid fastball
- He's tall and maybe a bit too thin
- Good makeup
- Already has mound presence
- Good command
- Very projectable
Where the reports vary, primarily there are two points of dissention. First, either his changeup is already a plus-pitch and better than his slider, or it's not much more than a "show me" pitch; one he can throw just to let hitters know its there and to keep them from sitting on the fastball or slider. Second, how projectable is he? Either he's a guy who fits as a strong number two type, or he looks mid-rotation. Right now the Twins have plenty of mid-rotation types, so it would be great to see Gibson fully healthy and comfortable in 2010 to see where he's at. He'll turn 22 before the end of the MLB playoffs.
Thoughts: It would have been hard to pick a better pitcher at this point in the draft. There may have been lower-risk ones on the board, but none with the potential ceiling. I'm more than pleased with the selection of Gibson.
Pick #46: Matthew Bashore, LHP
Indiana University
Age: 21
Just 21 in April, Bashore has been a strikeout pitcher the last couple of seasons. He was a big part of Indiana U's pitching staff, largel as a stater. His fastball is good, upper-80's to low-90's with good vertical and horizontal movement according to scouting reports. Bashore's biggest challenge as he makes the transition to the professional ranks will be to add a second quality pitch. And then hopefully a third. Right now it sounds like his breaking ball is below average, and the off-speed pitch is entirely a "show-me" offering. Without another pitch to compliment his fastball, with Bashore's physical abilities he could still put up some good numbers in the lower levels of the farm. But if he wants to succeed, even as a reliever, pitch development is a must.
Thoughts: To me, Bashore is a project. But if the Twins can get him to up the game on his secondary pitches he could be in the Minnesota bullpen in 2012.
Pick #70: Billy Bullock, RHP
U of Florida
Age: 21
Bullock improved his stock over the last three months. Ih March, nobody knew about him. But from April on, he became the best collegiate closer in the draft. Where his fastball used to settle in the upper-80's and low-90's, be started touching 96-98 every time out. Whether his delivery was tweaked to tap that velocity potential or whether he just started letting loose, I have no diea, but I do know that some scouts have graded his fastball as an All-Star pitch. His secondary pitches need work, but at this point in the draft that's not really a surprise. The slider needs a little angle on it, as well as consistency in quality and control. His changeup has no movement with velocity in the lower 80's, which wouldn't be so bad with that fastball, except that he telegraphs it by slowing down his arm. The mechanics need work, because right now he isn't too fluid in the second half of his delivery, but there's no denying that the Twins must really like his arm strength and that fastball. ESPN brings up that the pitcher most like him from the 2008 draft class, Ryan Perry, is currently in MLB.
Thoughts: The fastball intrigues me, but I'm curious about whee the velocity spike came from. And even with an upper-90's fastball, which he'll need to take a litte off of to retain command of anyway, a one-pitch pitcher won't find success very often. If he develops another pitch or two though, he could be vey exciting.
Pick #101: Ben Tootle, RHP
Jacksonville State U
Age: 21
Early in the college season, Tootle was seen as a solid first-round choice. Then he caught a bug, which kept him out for about a month; when he returned he'd lost weight, and velocity off of his incredible fastball. His stock fell. He recovered, getting the fastball back up to 97 mph, but what happened in the interum was enough to keep him out of the first round. Tootle has a very high leg kick, which appears to help him get drive off the rubber. Right now he categorizes as a two-pitch power pitcher, with a relatively flat (but very fast) fastball and a hard slider (or curve, depending on the report). All reports are uniform on his chaneup, which needs a lot of work. He definitely projects as a bullpen arm, but while his fastball isn't rated as highly as Bullock's, his breaking ball/fastball combination potential both grade out above average. He's aggressive on the mound, and with two quality pitches could move quickly.
Thoughts: Tootle is a great selection for the third round. As long as he's healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if he's the first of this group to reach the majors.
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27 comments
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Comments
College scouting reports
I’ve seen too many college pitcher scouting reports that have fastballs between 96 and 100 MPH. Almost nobody actually throws that hard. There are very few major league pitchers, mostly relievers that get up that high. My guess is most of these guys are consistently 90-91 but can dial it up to 96-97 if there’s a radar gun behind the plate and they don’t care where the pitch goes. That doesn’t mean they have a “97 MPH fastball”.
by DJL44 on Jun 10, 2009 10:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One thing that happens with pitchers when they become professionals
is that they often LOSE velocity, which seems counterintuitive. You’d think that as they get more physically mature and get professional coaching they would gain velocity, but it’s not that simple. One big difference is that college pitchers (and HS pitchers) usually only go once a week. When the start pitching more often, their velo goes down. Also, pitching is a game a attrition. 20 year olds have fresh arms. As they age and pitch more, they often lose something.
As for this draft…love that they took Gibson. Getting a top 10 talent where they were is a worthwhile gamble, one I’m glad they made. I wonder if they will let him pitch this season. The other guys…I don’t love drafting relievers, generally, because most relievers are actually former starters. The concept of the “relief prospect” is a relatively new phenomenon, one that I’m not convinced really works.
Still, I know nothing about this, and the Twins do a good job, so I’m not going to criticize it. I’m glad they focused on college pitching, something they have a lot of success with generally (see the current Twins rotation). There was a lot of chatter that they would take an HS pitcher in the first round. I always doubted that because they almost never do it—which is good because those picks are by far the riskiest. Maybe they would have had the draft gone differently, I don’t know, but I’m pleased they didn’t.
Coming into this draft, the consensus seemed to be that it was pitching heavy—there were very few worthwhile bats. Would have loved a middle infielder, but realistically, guys who can hit and play middle infield don’t grow on trees. There was really one guy who fit that profile who had first round talent—Grant Green. There was some thought he might fall as far as the Twins, but it didn’t happen. After that, it was very pitching heavy.
Of course they will have to take some bats today to start filling out the rosters.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 10, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Human arms are strongest in the early 20s. It takes lots of weight work and mechanical tweaks to maintain velocity through your 20s (unless you take steroids). I, for one, believe BA’s radar guns.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 10, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They lose velocity as soon as they put on a minor league jersey
There aren’t guys lighting up the minors with 97-100 MPH fastballs either. If the human arm is always stronger at age 20 then Beloit hitters should see tons of 98 MPH fastballs from those pitchers that came out of high school and went into the pros. All I’m saying is there is a difference between throwing a pitch 97 MPH, throwing a strike 97 MPH and throwing strikes consistently at 97 MPH.
by DJL44 on Jun 10, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It has to do with who the pitchers are facing too
In college you can throw the ball as hard as you can and you are going to have kids swinging. Your control isn’t as important. Once you get to AA and AAA you will find guys that have more patience and aren’t going to freely swing as much so control is more important. To improve control pitchers and pitching coaches tend to work on not putting everything you have into a pitch. So, in the end, losing velocity can make a pitcher better.
by Suckerpunch on Jun 10, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll second this
Even MIAC players will hit 90 mph fastballs the second and third time through. As pitchers get older they learn that throwing it by batters is not always the best way to do it. Right, Jessie Crain?
by wcooley on Jun 10, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In the 4th round
…the Twins took the Gopher second baseman, Derek McCallum
by roger13 on Jun 10, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
A bit of a reach, but he should move quickly.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 10, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Entirely college guys
through 10 rounds except a 9th round HS shortstop from Tampa. Couple of College catchers, a shortstop, another pitcher, and an outfielder.
Interesting that it’s so heavily college guys.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 10, 2009 1:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i'm glad to see so many college guys
they’re MLB-ready in less time, which should help supplement the system faster. not that two catchers, a shortstop and an outfielder can do it on their own, but it’s a good start. out of this group so far, which onestands the best chance of turning into something?
by Jesse on Jun 10, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dean definitely
led the nation in HR’s last year.
stop by Waving the Wheat (http://wavingthewheat.wordpress.com/) and The College Hockey Blog (http://thecollegehockeyblog.wordpress.com/)
by fetch9 on Jun 10, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Blake Dean baby. Love it. I hope he signs cause he’s gonna be a good one.
stop by Waving the Wheat (http://wavingthewheat.wordpress.com/) and The College Hockey Blog (http://thecollegehockeyblog.wordpress.com/)
by fetch9 on Jun 10, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you draft high school kids one year and college kids the next
They should all end up in the majors about the same time.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 10, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone thing that the Twins are going thru a change...
…in drafting philosophy? If there is a potential superstar high school players (Hicks, Revere…in their scouts opinion), they will take him. Otherwise, they may be going more with college players who are closer to being ready and can be less of a risk. Look at 2004, they selected Plouffe, Waldrop, Rainville, Fox, and Swarzak with five of their six picks in the first two rounds. Should have been a franchise building draft, yet, only Perkins and maybe Swarzak has contributed. Waldrop, Rainville and Fox have all had major arm problems and Plouffe still has to prove he can hit to make it. Seems a lot safer to draft the Crain, Baker, Garza, Slowey, Gutierrez’ of the world. Maybe they are starting to look at it that way.
by roger13 on Jun 10, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I sure as heck hope so
When you don’t have any money to spend you have to take guys who are more surefire. Then in the later rounds you can take guys with boom/bust type skills and pay overslot to get them.
stop by Waving the Wheat (http://wavingthewheat.wordpress.com/) and The College Hockey Blog (http://thecollegehockeyblog.wordpress.com/)
by fetch9 on Jun 10, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see a difference in the way Johnson drafts than Radcliff
The last two drafts seem less risk-averse.
Also, money is not an issue as much now as it was in 2007, so they seem to be more conventional in their drafting (in terms of the consensus best player available).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 10, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, 2004
was really something of an aberration in that they had 5 high picks that year. It was the ONLY recent year that they have selected a prep arm in the first round, and my guess is that it had more to do with the number of picks than a real philosophy.
They’ve really honed in on HS position players (Revere, Hicks, Plouffe, etc,) and college pitching in early rounds for the better part of this decade. I’m not sure that this draft is a real departure, I just guess that there weren’t any HS bats they were really high on this year.
Realistically, it’s worked. Their drafts this decade have produced the core of their lineup—all from HS position players: Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Span. (well, Cuddyer wasn’t this decade, I guess). That’s the top 5 spots in their lineup many days. Drafted college arms are also the core of their rotation: Baker, Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn (Community College, I think).
It’s amazing how successful they have been in these 2 areas, almost to the exclusion of HS arms and college bats. Swarzak is the HS arm that might be the exception. There are really no starting caliber college bats unless Valencia comes.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 10, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
They haven’t departed from their general philosophy, but they are taking guys with health/character/signability questions. They shied away from that before, especially on signability.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 10, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think any of the guys they took are signability guys?
Those are usually HS guys who have the college threat backup. Gibson wants to sign…might take a little over slot to do it, I guess, since he fell so far. The college signability guys are usually the top talents/Boras clients like Drew, Hochevar, etc.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 10, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They took some sophomores
And of course the high school kids will be hard to sign.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 10, 2009 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In terms of
In terms of straight upside, Bulluck, is a very interesting prospect. He could have the highest ceiling of these guys, but is anything but a sure thing. Gibson sounds like we have a good shot at a #2 quality starter pretty soon.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Jun 10, 2009 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Velocity
Everyone here is saying that velocity falls over time, but I have heard the opposite. I have heard that, from both HS→College, and College→Pro, that better training and better mechanics lead to improved velocity.
I could obviously be wrong. I’m just wondering if it has more to do with the radar guns, and overthrowing.
by snolls on Jun 10, 2009 5:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it's a mixed bag
As some kids fill out they add muscle and can pick up Velo, but Pro teams teach their pitchers that movement and location are more important than straight speed and the pitchers will sacrifice some speed for more success at higher levels in the minors
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
by maxisagod on Jun 10, 2009 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting first four picks
I haven’t followed the draft too much, just don’t know enough of the college players when Tulane’s not doing anything in the NCAA tourney. I find it very interesting that we took four college pitchers with the first picks. I guess there was even less hitting than I expected. I’m very happy with the Gibson pick, solid value there. It also sounds like Bullock and Tootle (great names, by the way) could be fast rising bullpen arms, which is good.
by Adam Peterson on Jun 11, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Power arms
After focusing on high school position players the last three years, we were due for a college arm-heavy draft. And this one happened to be very deep in arms. If you look at the Twins system, it has two primary weaknesses: Power arms and middle infield. So rounds two through four addressed that with Bullock, Tootle and McCallum.
It doesn’t hurt when three of the top five picks were preseason first rounders who fell because of illness or mild injury. I haven’t been this excited about a Twins draft since 2001.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 11, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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