Twins Blow 3-Run Lead, Lose in Ninth

by Adam Peterson on Jun 11, 2009 10:59 PM EDT in Game Recaps Comment 10 comments

This afternoon, the Twins wasted a golden opportunity to get back to .500 by blowing a three run lead in the eighth inning and losing 4-3 to the Oakland Athletics. With the series split, Minnesota drops to 30-32 on the season, 4 games back of the division leading Detroit Tigers. The Twins also drop to 3-4 on their current 10 game road trip, and a pitiful 9-20 on the road heading into 15 games of interleague play.

Nick Blackburn and his opponent, Oakland starter Trevor Cahill, posted zeroes until the top of the top of the fourth. After a Justin Morneau single and Jason Kubel walk, Joe Crede stepped up and lined a Cahill fastball over the left field fence for a three run homerun. The homerun was Crede's 10th this season, his 7th in his last 81 at bats since early May.

Blackburn continued to cruise over seven efficient shutout innings, showing why he’s been the staff ace over the last month-plus. His only hiccup at this point was leading off the fifth inning with two straight four pitch walks to Jason Giambi and Landon Powell. Fortunately, a Daric Barton fly ball and a 6-4-3 double play got him out of the jam. As Blackburn had only thrown 82 pitches entering the eighth inning, he seemed well on his way to a complete game win, perhaps a shutout. All was good with the Twins’ world until Jack Hannahan stepped to the plate with one out…

After the top of the eighth, Minnesota brought in Carlos Gomez as a defensive replacement for Jason Kubel, moving Michael Cuddyer to right field. With one out, Jack Hannahan lined a low fastball to right. Instead of playing it safe with a three run lead and giving Hannahan the single, Cuddyer dived for the ball and missed, resulting in a Hannahan triple. Orlando Cabrera (Twins Killer) grounded a single up the middle to put Oakland on the board. Was Blackburn rattled at this point? Perhaps. He started Adam Kennedy off with two fastballs way outside, putting himself in a hitter's count. He then grooved a meat fastball right down main street, and Kennedy deposited it in the right field seats to tie the game. According to the Oakland radio announcers, it sounded like this shot looked routine and kept carrying and carrying over the fence. I say, who gives a sh*t, it's gone! Fortunately, Blackburn bounced back to get the final two outs and give the hitters another chance at the A's bullpen.

Unfortunately, the damage had been done. Maybe it’s just my pessimism of late, but once this game was tied, it felt over. With the bottom of the Twins lineup coming up in the ninth, Cuddyer (fly out), Brian Buscher (strikeout) and Delmon Young (strikeout) went down easily. In the bottom of the ninth, Sean Henn relieved Blackburn and immediately proceeded to walk Jason Giambi on four pitches. Matt Guerrier relieved Henn, and he plunked Kurt Suzuki to put runners on first and second. Daric Barton sacrificed the runners to second and third, putting Rajai Davis in position to win the game.Davis lined a soft line drive to right field to end the game and put the Twins bullpen out of their misery.

Stars

Joe Crede: His three run homerun was the only damage the Twins hitters could manage against Cahill
today.
Nick Blackburn: I'll take 8 IP, 3 R any day from our starters. Dominant through 7, lost it in the eighth.
Jason Kubel: 1-2 with 2 BB. Just beat out Morneau (2-4, R)

Duds

Sean Henn: Four pitches, all balls, walked the winning run on base.
Matt Guerrier: HBP, Sac Bunt, Single. Didn't get it done in a tough spot.
Michael Cuddyer: 0-4, 2 LOB, misplay in the eighth started the rally.

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I totally acknowledge that this is after the fact

second guessing. But….twice this series Gardenhire left in his starter too long and paid the price. I completely understand that Blackburn had a low pitch count after 7, and I’m aware of the bullpen issues, but here’s the thing—know your personnel.

In a close game, you really would prefer to avoid these guys going against lineups for the 4th time. Baker, Blackburn—these guys aren’t Justin Verlander throwing 98 in the 9th inning. They don’t have the stuff to do it. Eventually, hitters are going to get these guys. A small reduction in their stuff, seeing all the pitches—these guys walk a fine line between success and failure. I feel like most times, by the 4th plate appearance, that line has been crossed.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 12, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good points

but I would have been more upset if Gardy had taken Blackburn out after 82 pitches the way he was rolling. I think the Cuddyer misplay rattled him more than you think. He immediately got behind Cabrera (single) and Kennedy (HR). I agree that the fourth time through probably made a difference.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 12, 2009 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely

I’m not suggesting that this is the only factor or that it was an obvious mistake. I know I’m second guessing it. I just think it’s something worth talking about. The Twins rotation is full of guys who don’t dominate with their stuff. It’s a control staff with guys who can’t get away with mistakes as often as someone throwing 96. 4th time through…I just think it costs these guys just enough of their edge to make it dangerous.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 12, 2009 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking: Use your bullpen!

Then it happened: Boom. Homer. So you are not alone. It’s Bert and his freaking “Make sure we complete this thing. If a guy has a shutout going, you have to leave him in….” Shut up Bert, or go back to the stone age where you belong.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 12, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On a different note

I was trying to figure out how the hell Nick Blackburn has been so successful both last year and this year. I mean, the control is good, but the strikeouts are low, he hasn’t had an abnormally low BABIP, thus his WHIP isn’t great. He gave up plenty of homers last year….so what gives?

It turns out there’s an obvious answer. He’s had great success pitching with runners in scoring position. His career OPS against in those situations is 668. That’s roughly Mike Redmond 2009. It’s driven by a very low slg against in RISP situations, but really it’s across the board success in those situations.

That raises the question: are such results sustainable? Is it something he does, or is it merely good fortune?

I don’t KNOW the answer, but for myself, I’m convinced it’s luck. First of all, his strikeouts are actually lower in RISP situations than they are with nobody on, and his walks are a little higher. His BABIP is somewhat low—.275 against .300 for the league in all situations. But mostly, he just hasn’t given up any extra base hits in these situations. Much lower % of doubles and especially homers. Ultimately, I don;t see how that’s anything but good fortune.

I’ve always lacked confidence in Blackburn, and I still do. I think he’s been terrific so far and have no problem acknowledging that. But realisitcally, guys with numbers like his don’t generally have long term success.

As much as Jesse loves him, I have two words: sell high.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 12, 2009 12:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not too lucky

this year or last. This year, he’s outperformed his 4.18 FIP for two reasons. One (6.5 HR/FB%) I consider lucky and that will regress to around the 10% range. The other, BABIP (.282) is lower than average, but roughly in line with his 17.0 LD%. As you point out, he’s pitched better in RISP than non-RISP situations. I suspect his performance in RISP is not sustainable, but I don’t know so.

As far as long term success goes, it all depends on what you’re expecting. I think Blackburn can be a very effective #3 starter, posting FIP / ERA in the general 4.25 range. Over a full season, 200 IP, this comes out to a WAR of about 3.0. His ability to throw strikes and induce ground balls is the key to his success.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 12, 2009 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, see, I disagree with this

I don’t think ultimately he’s an effective 3rd starter long term. He’s obviously capable of having bouts of success, and I don’t want to minimize how good he’s been for the Twins. But I think the Carlos Silva path is more likely for him—there are going to be long stretches, even whole seasons, where he’s really not pitchable. Those RISP numbers…I just don’t see that continuing.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 12, 2009 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Silva comp

Blackburn and Silva have very comparable numbers. I guess Blackburn has seemed more consistent, and he’s got a better arsenal of pitches other than the sinker than Silva. Blackburn has the sinking fastball he throws about half the time and a cutting fastball he throws about 25% of the time. He can go to the cutter when the sinker’s not working. Silva’s never really had the equivalent to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker.

However, if I could sell high on Blackburn, I probably would. If we could get a league average or better middle infielder, I’m all for it.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 12, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HR rate

Why would a low homer rate cause him to outperform his FIP? xFIP is the one that uses flyball rate; standard FIP should already have his low FB/HR taken into account.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 12, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

His low HR/FB rate doesn’t affect his ERA outperforming FIP. You’re right. I was trying more to tie to luck. A low HR/FB rate is not likely to last through the season.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 12, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs