Anybody want to talk Trade Deadline?
Now that the draft is over, I thought it might be time to talk about what the Twins' strategy should be heading toward the trade deadline. Buyers? Sellers? Both? Neither? Who do you want, who would you never deal?
I'll try to keep this briefer than I usually do. I'll just post a few questions, with short answers of my own, hopefully to spur some conversation.
1. Buyers or sellers? I think it's clear that the Twins aren't going to fire sale it--they are in their division. Are there major leaguers I could imagine trading? Absolutely. But the goal has to be to try to improve this year and next
2. What do they need? Seems clear they need middle infield help. Another set-up guy would be useful, but not worth overpaying for. I wouldn't be averse to a star level outfielder, but I don't see the 2009 version of Jason Bay anywhere.
3. Who do you want? A couple of names we've talked about are Freddie Sanchez (a rather short term 2B solution) and Alcides Escobar (A long term SS solution). Who else? What would they cost? Who do you have your eye on?
4. Who would you trade? There are a couple of guys on the ML roster that seem like good sell high candidates to me, notably Nick Blackburn and maybe Shaggy Guerrier. Is there anyone in the minors that you would really struggle to trade? For me, I'd be very hesitant to trade Swarzak and Hicks, though I wouldn't refuse in the right deal. Everyone else...I'm not giving them away, but I don't see a lot of future stars in the system. What say you?
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38 comments
Comments
Stud pitcher
It seems the Twins have an abundance of “quality” arms. By quality I mean decent pitchers who are 3s maybe 2s on their best days, however I don’t know if the Twins have a #1 guy. Liriano has the ability but I wonder more and more if he’ll ever completely put that together.
What I’d love to see the Twins do is package one of their current starters, a minor league guy who’s ready like Swarzak and Mulvey and maybe a guy in the minors with potential for one solid Ace type potential pitcher. Matt Cain’s name was rumored this past off season. If he’d be available for two young guys under control for a few years (Swarzak and Perkins? + a prospect or two) I’d go for him. Possibly Blackburn instead of Perkins since Blackburn will be worth more likely. Cain is under control very reasonable through 2011.
Either that or a solid middle infielder. I think Harris is going to stick at SS this year so that might be covered. His defensive inefficiencies should be covered up a bit by having Crede and Punto surrounding him. I’m more than open to a trade for a good MI but I would want it again to be more than a short term rental as we don’t have the most promising prospects in the minors at SS or 2B.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Jun 14, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the idea of your package deal...
…And I would start with Liriano. Package Liriano with Young and a good AAA prospect like Mulvey (not Swarzak). That may be the only way to get some value for Young. Would be looking for a very good young starter (Cain would fit that description) with a top shortstop prospect who is very close (AAA or AA and ready to move up).
by roger13 on Jun 14, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Selling Low
My problem with a Liriano/Young package is that neither of those guys have ever been worth less than they are right now. I can see cutting bait on one of them, but to give up on two guys who have had so much promise seems a bit rash – I think it might be more prudent to see if at least one of them can recover.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 14, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Market efficiency
I’m not going to debate the point, but just bring up that they are worth less than they have ever been for a reason. If no-one thought they could fall in value, then someone would want to buy low, and they would have more value.
Call this human capital version of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
by snolls on Jun 15, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
I guess it’s a case of whether you think it’s more likely they’re rebound than they won’t. I am in the “they’ll rebound, at least a little” camp.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 15, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good work
I don’t love Cain, myself—he’s pretty good, but his peripherals are weakening some in spite of the low ERA. He’s something of a sell high candidate for the Giants, it seems to me.
What the Giants really need is a bat. Not sure what the Twins could offer along those lines. Blackburn and Kubel for Cain? i’d be very uncomfortable with that.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 14, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing I want:
A shortstop that could be a starter and productive player for the next four/five years.
by Twins Territory on Jun 14, 2009 6:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
It would be worth giving up a good pitcher for a guy like that. How about Perkins?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 14, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Perkins has a ton of value
You aren’t getting that sort of player for him, I don’t think.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 14, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perkins seems to do well vs NL teams
maybe a team such as MIL or CHC or somebody would be willing to take Perkins plus a prospect for either Escobar or Theriot.
by 33MorneauMVP on Jun 14, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You'd be surprised
He was 12-4 as a rookie. He started strong this year, but developed the elbow problem. If he can come back strong for a handful of starts in June and July, his trade value will be pretty high.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 14, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First post
Liriano for the 2B – Brian Roberts (Orioles), give or take a few players.
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Jun 15, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Why is that far-fetched?
given Liriano’s upside and the fact that Roberts is in his 30’s…
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Jun 15, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Roberts will be a free agent at the end of this season
He’s not a bad trade target at all but giving up Liriano for any player for 1/2 a season is ridiculous, short of maybe Albert Pujols.
I actually really like the Brian Roberts idea though, if he could be had for a couple prospects and the Orioles are 11 games down in the best division in baseball. Very little hope for them this year and it is very likely they trade Roberts to get something. They’ll want at least one legitimate prospect along with some upside type guys I would guess. I honestly have no idea who but I would again go with pitching as I think that is the main area where the Twins are set up at the major league level for a few years.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Jun 15, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is wrong
he signed a 4 year extension that starts next season. They aren’t looking to trade him, I don’t think. Plus, second basemen his age worry me—it’s a fall off the cliff position. I wouldn’t mind getting him, but they signed him to be a signiture player for them.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 15, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Either way
I think a solid bat and decent fielding at 2B would really help the twins and what the twins could afford to get rid of is starting pitching and/or an OF.
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Jun 15, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My bad
I actually thought I remembered him signing an extension after all the talk of him going to the Cubs died down last year. I checked rotoworld and they must not have their page on him updated. I need to get in the habit of going to Cot’s baseball contracts instead.
I guess then the trade reverses a bit. I don’t think they’d take just Liriano for him even if they were looking to trade him. 4/40 million is very reasonable for a guy like Roberts even if he slides a bit these next four years. He’d be the perfect #2 hitter and could slide up to #1 as needed with Span out. Too bad, good for the Orioles though.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Jun 15, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yep
Also Roberts is a little too expensive with that new deal, even if the O’s are going to trade him
We got Mauer to sign ya know!
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 15, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying it should be Roberts necessarily
just that he should be a prototype of what the Twins should be looking for at 2B.
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Jun 15, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
JJ Hardy
Last off season many here were all about him, now he’s hitting awful and could be had for much less than last summer. However, he is only under control for one more season so what is he worth giving up? We can’t plan to sign him but you can figure if he turns it around he’ll be a type A or at the very least a type B free agent. I assume he’ll just cost way too much for the Twins who will be trying to retain their starting pitchers and some guy named Joe.
So 1 1/2 years of J.J. Hardy is worth what? They’ll want at least one solid starting pitcher. I think for a long rental like this you can’t let them touch Slowey/Baker/Liriano. If it were 3 or 4 years of a guy then they’d be in the convo. If it were up to me and the Brewers would go for it I’d sell high on a guy like Blackburn while they’re selling low because Hardy hasn’t been as good this year and they have a ready replacement for him at AAA.
With Swarzak and Mulvey sitting in AAA and guys like Manship, Gutierrez, and Fox in AA the Twins can afford to trade one of their starters to solidify the middle infield. I’d rather have a guy that we have under control for longer but Hardy could be the missing link for the Twins this year and next.
Also he had dam near and .900 OPS in May sandwiched around an awful April and an even worse June so far. So he’s still go it, just needs to stay consistent.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Jun 15, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Hardy is struggling this year
He’s close to the ideal player for the Twins in a lot of ways, but I don’t think the Brewers are going to trade him; they are trying to win. At any rate, I don’t think they would do it without one of those pitchers you mention not being willing to deal.
They might, but I think they want to keep him, and at any rate he isn’t going to come cheap. I want the guy he’s been blocking, Escobar.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 15, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As much as I love Him, I'd trade Swarzak
Swarzak’s stock or trade value has to be higher that pretty much any other pitching prospect in our system right now….
And if we deal him to an NL team, we could probably get future #3 starter value out of him.
so in other words, Swarzak for Alcides Escobar would almost be an even trade right there, especially since the Brewers need pitching, I’m 99% sure we’d need to throw in 1 more player to complete that trade though…..
the 1 knock on A. Escobar for me though, is his defense – He’s not as good as Andrus.
By the Way it pains me to say this, because I guarantee I rated Swarzak higher than anyone else coming into 2009 on the prospect charts….including: Here, Seth, Gleeman, Josh’s Thougths, Sickles’ , BA , BP and more.
So I am probably one of Swarzak’s biggest fans. For Sure.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 15, 2009 10:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
gotta give something up to get something
Another piece that has gained some value based on his small major league sample would be Jose Morales. Catchers are valuable and he’s capable of coming in and at the very least platooning for some teams at catcher if not start in the right situation.
I don’t see him being a huge centerpiece but he’s someone the Twins could afford to give up as Joe and Mike are more than capable. That and the fact that Ramos is in AA already and should start in AAA next year and be available if injury comes upon Joe. I know Jose would be valuable as a bench option for us next year and as the backup catcher but if he could help lead to a young MI for the team I’d go for it.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Jun 15, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Escobar has a tremendous defensive reputation
BP named him the Brewers top prospect coming into this year, and said this in part:
Year in Review: This defensive stalwart made huge strides offensively, finishing third in the minors in hits and in the Southern League’s top three in runs and stolen bases.
The Good: While he’ll never be confused with Rickey Henderson, Escobar’s 31 walks in 2008 represented a career high by more than 50 percent, and the improved patience allowed his bat to come alive. He has excellent plate coverage and gap power, as well as plus speed on the basepaths with a knack for stealing bases. Defensively, he’s among the best in the minors, with outstanding initial jumps providing above-average range to both sides, while he also has a very strong arm.
Perfect World Projection: He’s a future Gold Glove shortstop and an ideal number two hitter.
Glass Half Empty: His offense doesn’t develop enough, leaving him as an everyday shortstop who has to hit at the bottom of the lineup.
Path to the Big Leagues: The Brewers already have a very good young shortstop in J.J. Hardy, but he’s been rumored in trade talks this season, and there has also been some discussion of moving him to third in order to create an opening for Escobar.
Timetable: If that opening doesn’t occur, Escobar will begin the year at Triple-A, but he should be Milwaukee’s starting shortstop in 2010 at the very latest.
I’d love to get him. and I agree I would move Swarzak+ for him, though it would pain me.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 15, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i could do the research on this...
but maybe someone on here already knows the answer: i’ve heard hawkens mentioned as a possible pick up for the twins in a trade. what about valverde? would it be a cost/cost to give up issue? i wonder if his recent injury has hurt his value at all?
by dctwin on Jun 17, 2009 5:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would think
that with the recent injury to Valverde, his value has had to have dropped. That and the fact that LaTroy appears to be doing so well in Houston may make the Stros more willing to give Valverde up. Its certainly a possibility that the Twins should look into.
by 33MorneauMVP on Jun 17, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In order of importance, to me:
1. left-handed reliever
2. second baseman
3. right-handed bench bat
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by joeiscool12 on Jun 19, 2009 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
left handed reliever???
why do we need a left handed reliever?
We have Mijares and Henn. We dont need anybody to replace them. Henn is doing a great job out of the pen and Mijares is phenomenal.
by 33MorneauMVP on Jun 19, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I say second base and a righty reliever who’s better than Ayala.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 19, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Henn is doing a great job?
His career ERA is almost 8; his career WHIP is almost 2.00. He had another terrible outing tonight against Houston (I was there, almost threw my had at him).
Yeah, we have Mijares. But we need another guy who can come in in the 6th or 7th, get a couple batters out, and still give us Mijares for the 8th.
by Jeff Rueter on Jun 21, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but we do not need a lefty reliever
Henn has a career era of 8 because he has hardly played. If the Twins were never to have given Liriano a chance in 2005, he would have had a career ERA of over 5 or 6. To state that he has a career ERA almost at 8 is nothing unless you state the number of games he has pitched.
Plus if worse comes to worse this is what will happen: Swarzak up, Henn down, Perkins/Liriano to the bullpen. Its really not that hard to figure out if people would just use their brains.
by 33MorneauMVP on Jun 22, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless
Basing it off of current play, he hasn’t been doing well at all this year. Okay, so we move Swarzak to the rotation, Perkins or Liriano to the pen, and Henn to Rochester. That’d fly for maybe 1-2 turns through the rotation before Perkins or Liriano would get very upset and want to prove themselves again in a starting role..
by Jeff Rueter on Jun 22, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Proposition is on the July Trade Dealine in about 5 weeks from now…
Delmon Young
to the Oakland A’s
for Andrew Bailey – RP and Dusty Coleman – SS.
I’d do it!!!
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 19, 2009 11:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
I’d have to question which market innefficiency Billy Beane is trying to exploit…
OBP? Nope.
Defense? Nope.
Post hype sleeper? Perhaps.
by Adam Peterson on Jun 20, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Bewers are NOT going to trade Escobar…why would they?
Hardy will go, how about Liriano & Young for Hardy & Hart?
by Ohpityme on Jun 21, 2009 7:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I might do that, actually
my thinking on this was that they might not trade Hardy while trying to win. If they would, I’d definitely be interested.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 21, 2009 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm.
No way in Hell that Doug Melvin trades away both JJ Hardy and Corey Hart for that. He’d also ask for a solid pitcher like Blackburn or Swarzak, along with an upside guy to consider it. Not enough going on with Franchise and Delmon.
by Jeff Rueter on Jun 21, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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