The Continuing Struggles of Jesse Crain

by Jesse on Jun 14, 2009 6:46 PM EDT in Game Recaps

It has to break your heart, just a little bit.

The biggest problem with following a team this closely and caring as much as you do is that it could turn you prematurely gray. I'm legitimatey worried about this happening. True, I'm an admitted optimist, but that doesn't stop me from gritting my teeth. Averting my eyes? Out of the question. For better or worse, I witness the train wrecks with my eyes wide open.

Little known fact: Ron Gardenhire is just 22-years old. The stress has turned his flowing locks and trademark facial hair a snowy white. And yes, this means he's been managing a major league baseball team since he was a sophomore in high school.

Carlos Gomez' first home run of the season knotted the game at two, landing a temporary dagger in the top of the sixth inning. By this time last season he had five skyjacks, and even after going 0-for-6 was hitting .272/.308/.388. Clearly he's not taken the obvious step forward this season that we were hoping for, but here's the primary difference between Gomez and fellow 23-year old Delmon Young: Gomez doesn't look lost in the field, or at the plate. Over-matched? Sometimes. Inexperience? For sure. But he still looks like a young professional. Delmon's having issues across the board. Cmathewson picked it out in a post last night.

Scott Baker put together his third consecutive impressive start, going seven strong in Chicago. A sac fly in the second scored the first run, and even after a rough start to the fourth inning Baker was able to settle in and battle for the second and third outs of the inning and end the threat. He threw a lot of strikes, taking advantage of an aggressive and struggling Cubs offense and forcing them to hit the ball; 70 called strikes in just 98 pitches. Baker didn't walk a single man, scattering just five hits and matching that number in strikeouts.

On the other side, Ted Lilly was just as impressive. Gomez gave him almost all the trouble he had all day: a second inning double followed by a steal of third base, scoring on a great bunt by Nick Punto. The home run later gave Gomez one hell of a game, and made him one of the only offensive catalysts on the afternoon. Outside of Gomez, Lilly allowed just seven hits and matched Baker's walk total of zero. He was lifted with two outs in the eighth, having struck out six. Over Lilly's last four starts (28.1 innings), he's allowed just four earned runs.

I feel like I'm forgetting something...

Oh yeah, the train wreck. Jesse Crain came on to hold the game in the bottom of the ninth, getting a one-pitch out to kick things off. Things unravelled quickly. Derek Lee hit one hard to the left side for a single before Geovany Soto knocked what probably should have been a routine ground ball to Matt Tolbert. Even playing toward the end of the infield dirt, a diving Tolbert was unable to come up with the ball. Six years later, Young fielded the ball in shallow left. A hard throw made it a close play at third base on Lee, but he made it under the tag.

According to the play-by-play, it sounds like Young was playing extraordinarily deep in left field; warning track deep. Whether he made this adjustment himself or he was positioned there by his coaches, this move gave the Cubs an extra base and changed the game's aspect. An intentional walk of Mike Fontenot loaded the bases. Two pitches later Crain induced a bouncing grounder off Ryan Theriot, but it found space through the right side of the infield, and Lee came in to score the winning run.

Crain's season is killing the bullpen. He's continually put into high-leverage situations, even now, after he's proven that he's unable to handle that kind of situation. His line drive rates aren't the problem (16.1%), it's a number of other things.

The walks have been on the rise every year since '06, and this season he's walking a sickly 5.71 per nine innings.
He's stranding just 54.3% of his base runners. I'm not really sure how this is even possible.
Crain's slider, which he'd been throwing about 25% of the time over the last two years with an average velocity of about 89.3 mph, is broken. He now throws the slider just 12% of the time, with an average velocity of 84.7 mph.

Something with Crain has to change, and quickly. I'm not opposed to giving him opportunities to work through this, but those opportunities have to stop happening with the game on the line. Over the last few weeks a number of bullpen arms have stepped up to the plate and started delivering results, meaning Gardenhire should feel free to change the heirarchy of his 'pen.

The good news is that the Twins managed to swipe two of three on the road, against the Cubs. Bring on the Pirates.

Additional Twins/Cubs coverage from SB Nation.
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Stars of the Game
#3: Luis Ayala (1 IP, K, .110 WPA)
#2: Carlos Gomez (2-for-4, 2B, HR, RBI, 2 R, SB, .077 WPA)
#1: Scott Baker (7 IP, 5 H, 5 K, 0 BB, 2 R, .192 WPA)

Causes of Premature Gray Hairs
#1: Jesse Crain (0.1 IP, 3 H, BB, R, -.357 WPA)
#2: Brendan Harris (0-for-4, 2 K, -.169 WPA)
#3: Justin Morneau (0-for-5, -.195 WPA)

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Comments

Btoken is the correct word for Crain

You know, I don’t want to make excuses for the guy, and I’m not sure how much I beleive this, but as good as Rick Anderson has generally appeared to be, I wonder sometimes if he didn’t screw up Crain from the very beginning.

I remember that first full year—his results were good but there were no strikeouts. Where did the fire-balling reliever go? Well, my memory is that Anderson tried to turn Crain into a 2-seam fastball guy. It worked in the sense that he had a good ERA that year, and I wonder if that didn’t fool everyone. He wasn’t going to succeed longterm without the Ks. Those eventually came up some, but never to the level we hoped for. Then the injury, and etc.

Look, it doesn’t really matter at this point—he is what he is. But I always thought that Crain was not handled exactly right. This was a guy who was consistently over 11 K/9 in the minors at all levels.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 14, 2009 7:01 PM EDT reply actions

I remember that, getting him to lose the 4-seam and go the 2-seam route.

Crain’s been effective for the most part, a hiccup here and there with the Twins. Even without this year, which has really just been disappointing, he never really reached his potential. There were some moderate expectations for Crain, and even in his good years he didn’t quite get there.

I’m hoping this isn’t the start of a Rincon-esque decline.

by Jesse on Jun 14, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

just because a pitcher does not strikeout

batters does not mean he will not be effective. Look for instance at Greg Maddux. One of the greatest pitchers within the past 20 years and he did not strike a ton out. Just because a pitcher does not strikeout batters does not mean they will not be effective. I do agree though that Crain has steadily declined but it was not because he could not strike out anybody.

by BCTwins on Jun 14, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions

This is wrong

Strikeouts correlate very well with pitching success. Even Maddux, who had a lot of other talents, had a good K rate during the peak of his career.

Look, take any year in the modern era. Sort the qualifying pitchers by K/9. I promise you that the top half of that list is going to be a lot more successful than the bottom half. Every year.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 14, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions

xFIP is as close to science as we have

It relies on Ks, BB, and HRs, adjusted for park and league factors. So Ks do make a difference. The reason ground ball pitchers typically have a low xFIP even though they do not strike guys out is low HRs. Take Blackburn. He strikes out a batter every other inning or so. Normally you would say he’s been lucky. But he also doesn’t walk anyone and he gives up very few homers.

In Crain’s case, he gives up a lot of fly balls, which are a lot more likely to become homers than ground balls, if I’m not mistaken. And he walks a lot more batters than Blackburn. So even though he strikes more guys out, his xFIP is higher. If he could manage to get more geound balls…

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 14, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Your explanation is pretty good, but your example is bad.

Nick Blackburn is actually a good example of someone whose success doesn’t look sustainable, which is apparent in his xFIP (which is not as low as you seem to think it is, at 5.01). His home run rate per flyball, at 7.1%, is likely to regress, and he’s not actually that remarkable of a groundball pitcher at rates of 45.7% and 1.21 GB/FB. His K rate is down (4.0 vs. 4.5 per 9) and BB rate is up (2.6 vs. 1.8 – I wouldn’t call that “not walking anyone”) compared to last year. Once a few more of his flies start going over the fence, he’s not going to look as good as you seem to think he is.

by DK on Jun 15, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Best subject-line typo ever

Even the word used to describe him is broken.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 14, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Crain's four-seamer is very hitable

He throws hard, but straight. So guys jump all over that pitch. He needs a cutter or a sinker to be successful.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 14, 2009 8:34 PM EDT reply actions

Well, his 4 seamer is hittable

now. And that was, as I recall, what they were worried about when he first came up. But it had a lot more life then. The guy had totally dominated the minors. It wasn’t just the Ks, I don’t think he ever gave up a homer in the minor leagues.

:Look, this isn’t an argument I’m eager to really go to the mat for. I frankly am a little hazy on the details at this point. I do remember being irritated that they immediately decided to change this guy’s approach after his minor league success.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 14, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

He could have both a four seamer and a two seamer

He could use the four seamer to go up the ladder and the two seamer to try to get a ground ball. But relying on a straight fastball up in the zone is a recipe for disaster no matter how hard you throw.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 14, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

can they bring up Anthony Swarzak

and send Crain down?

by caluofmn on Jun 14, 2009 11:11 PM EDT reply actions

Crain is out of options

They can DFA him, but he would be claimed, most likely. I still think they might do that. But they probably won’t use Swarzak as a reliever just yet. They would choose between Rob Delaney or Juan Morillo, most likely.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 14, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions

There seems to be some sort of emotional or mental...

…disconnection besides the mechanical stuff. I recall a tie game earlier in the year and it appeared that Crain had pretty good stuff. He gave up a bloop double and then the runner was moved over to third and he fanned the next batter convincingly. I was sitting here thinking, I wonder how that guy is going to score from third. Crain balked and he trotted home. Unbelievable.

"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. See, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughing at him. Now if you apologize, like I know you're going to, I might convince him that you really didn't mean it . . ."

by Skippy tastes better than Jiff on Jun 14, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions

Helluva curveball, though

Crain came in against the Jays on April 14, his fifth game of the season, and absolutely buckled the Jays with a curveball that was 12-to-6 kickass. He got the win with two innings of hitless ball in which he threw strike after strike. Didn’t need 30 pitches to complete two innings.

He’s thrown a few nice curveballs since then, but the rest of his stuff is just crap.

He has had some bad breaks, and when you have thrown fewer than 20 innings as the solstice approaches it doesn’t take much to push your ERA up to 8. Still when he entered today I figured Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Then he got an out and I was thinking maybe the worst was over for the guy.

Nope.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 14, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions

Mauer

I love how Mauer going 3-5 is just so routine it’s not even worth mentioning anymore! I could happily get used to getting used to that!

by by jiminy on Jun 15, 2009 1:13 AM EDT reply actions

The ninth

First of all, I was actually at this game. I know, right. Dashed back home to Minnesota for the summer after the game, posting this from my home PC. Had AMAZING seats in the front row of the upper deck inside third base we got for near face value by total luck.

Anyways, about those hits in the ninth. Both shots to the right side were just to the left of Tolbert, I mean juuuuuuuuuuuuuuust barely to the left of… but it wasn’t his fault. The whole team was playing the lines and the OF’rs deep in a very noticeable no-doubles defense. Had Tolbert been playing in a more standard position, both of those hits would have been right at him, and we would not be having this conversation. I’d imagine it was this no doubles defense that cause Delmon to be so far away from the ball, which totally died in the grass in left.

Then, on Ryan the Riot’s walk-off basehit, Punto was pulled in. The whole infield was pulled in to cut a run down at the plate, well further in from what I would consider a Normal double-play depth. As the hit went out, it was JUUUUUST to Punto’s left. Had Punto been playing a slightly more normal position, it would have been a tailor-made double play ball to end the inning, even with the speedy Theroit.

Not criticizing Gardenhire for calling for those defensive shifts (plenty else to criticize, Crain? When Nathan was available? Nathan had even GOTTEN FULLY WARM in the 8th! Instead we go with the guy with the 8 ERA…) but the percentage plays the coaching staff went with today probably hurt the team bad today.

Oh, not to mention 10 left on base, including Mauer and Morneau failing with a righty on the hill in the 8th (and Morneau and Kubel getting blanked on the day). Oh well, 2-3 and a 5-5 road trip is a big step ahead for this team.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 15, 2009 4:06 AM EDT reply actions

Second-guessing the other team's strategy

I though the Cubs’ strategy was a little off leading up to the Twins’ first run, and I was wondering if anyone else had an opinion. Gomez, the #7 hitter, doubled with two outs in the second inning, then stole third (great read on the pitcher) without a throw. My question: Why did the Cubs still pitch to Punto, especially before the steal? I know, Punto’s an awful hitter, but the on-deck batter was an American League pitcher with one career hit. There is some value in having the pitcher lead off the next inning if they can get Punto out, but I can’t see how that is worth more than doubling the odds that you give up the run (.200 BA vs. .090 BA, and it’s even worse once Gomez made it to third and an infield single could score the run). Am I being too analytical here, or does Lou Piniella not entirely know what he’s doing?

I also didn’t get why Lilly was paying so much attention to Punto at first immediately after his bunt single. You’re not going to try a steal with the pitcher batting and two outs, because you don’t want him leading off the next inning if you fail.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 15, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions

I think it was the right decision there

Early in the game, it’s worth the slight extra risk that Punto gets the hit in order to limit the pitch count and get the pitcher up to lead off the next inning. At worst, Punto gets Gomez home and that’s it. It’s not like you have to worry about his power.

The problem with walking him there is that then you are walking the 8th place hitter all the time. I think NL managers prefer, correctly, not to do that.

Though, you know that Rey Ordonez was in the top 10 in IBB 3 different times? Rey freaking Ordonez! Who really wants that?

by Eric in Madison on Jun 15, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Cubs fans

Some of the Cubs fans in the seats behind me were complaining about just that. It’s a good argument with guys in scoring position.

However, Pinella could have been hoping to get the .200 hitting punto out in an attempt to Torpedo the 3rd inning. If they get Punto out the 3rd starts with the pitcher followed by the completely incapable and .180 TOlbert, then Mauer comes up with what is almost certainly 2 outs. You basically get the chance to eat Mauer’s at bat up if you get out Punto. it was a pretty damn perfect bunt, tough to expect that level of execution from the other team.

Very exciting play to watch though.

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 15, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Gomez

“Gomez doesn’t look lost in the field, or at the plate.”
Are you watching the same Gomez I am? In 80% of his ab’s he looks as if the goal is to as swing as hard as possible and pray to make contact. If not for Young, he’d be the definition of “lost.”

by wcooley on Jun 15, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe I'm splitting hairs.

Or maybe I was influenced by the results Gomez got yesterday. Or maybe I’m just getting tired of seeing Delmon fly open on every single cut. You’re right, with both of these guys it’s all relative.

Maybe the point I should have made was that Gomez at least looks like he’s putting in an effort. Young, from everything we see and everything that gets reported, couldn’t give a flying shit. He doesn’t want to talk about his problems or his mechanics and he doesn’t want to listen to advice from his coaches…and that’s just unacceptable, given how he’s playing this year. It’s like he wants to snap out of his year-long skid with one swing of the bat, immediate gratification, and all will be forgotten.

by Jesse on Jun 15, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions