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Crede deals with ghosts of Twins third basemen past

Last year, about this time, we took a look at Mike Lamb's 2008 season - and concluded that he wasn't doing much more than Tony Batista had been doing in 2006. The Twins cut Batista loose after 50 games in 2006, and dropped Lamb after 81 last season.

So, while no one is suggesting that he be dropped, it's only fair to examine Joe Crede, as he is Minnesota's 2009 solution at third base.  Crede has had 192 plate appearances this year, just three fewer than Batista got in 2006 (and five more than Lamb had at the time of last year's article), so the timing's about right.

Here's the tale of the tape*:

  BATISTA ('06) LAMB ('08 thru 6/3) CREDE ('09)
BA .236 .247 .228
OBP .303 .283 .297
SLG .388 .335 .456
OPS .691 .618 .753
HR 5 1 10
RBI 21 24 27
Runs created 24 23 24
OPS, last 20 games .685 .707 .770
BABIP .276 .266 .221
Line-drive % 21.9% 18.2% 16.3%
UZR/150 -13.5 -18.4^ 34.3

*Statistic sources: UZR/150 from Fangraphs.com, BABIP/LD% from The Hardball Times, all others from Baseball-Reference.com
^Lamb's fielding number only available for entire 2008 season

A few things jump out at me from this comparison, so let's discuss:

  • Crede is so much better on defense than either Lamb or Batista, there's just no comparison.  Both Batista and Lamb were absolute liabilities at third base.  Meanwhile, if you go by Ultimate Zone Rating (the number above is per 150 defensive games), Crede has been the best defensive third baseman in baseball.  Strictly in the field, Crede's been worth 15 runs more than Batista in 2006, and likely about the same number more than Lamb last season at this point.
  • Crede's power numbers dwarf his predecessors, though his on-base numbers are just as bad.  This is a function of his home run numbers, and nothing else.  He has about the same number of extra base hits as both Batista and Lamb; it's just that his few have flown over the wall.
  • Crede hits an extraordinary number of fly balls (almost half the time), and has done so for several years.  He hits the fewest ground balls on the team (35.6%), and so few line drives that even Delmon Young hits more.  Consequently, his batting average, even when he hits the ball (BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, above) is horrible, since most of the time the ball either ends up in the stands or in an outfielder's glove.  Crede's 10 home runs are many more than either Lamb or Batista, but for example, he's hit fewer doubles and triples than either one.

Ultimately, the conclusion I draw from the numbers is that Crede's contribution this year has been about 15-20 runs over what the Twins got from either Batista in 2006 or Lamb in 2008.  That's about equal to two wins.  (Not to mention that if Crede wasn't playing, Brian Buscher might be, and that would have translated into probably 2-3 fewer wins, as well.)

Are you frustrated with Crede?  That .228 batting average could vex the calmest among us.  But take heart - he's much better than the guys who've manned third base in the past.

1 recs  |  Comment 20 comments |

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Frustrated?

No. Why would you be? He’s doing exactly. and I mean exactly, what he should be expected to do. Really very consistent in his skill set.

That doesn’t make for a great player, but given what they paid for him, and their utter passivity in solving problems last off-season, it’s not bad. He’s a useful guy, especially given that glove.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 15, 2009 8:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

If anyone had dug into his career numbers before he came here, you’d know that his single greatest asset is his defense. Despite the generally overall bad pitching we’ve received this year, aren’t you glad that the best fielding third baseman is on the field? Things could be so much worse.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jun 15, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BABIP and UZR

Those two numbers really stand out for me. He’s hit a lot of balls hard for outs. ANd he’s really caught the ball well. Yesterday’s game was a testament to how good he is at third. We have come to expect him to make plays on both those hits through the hole that went for hits because Tolbert’s reactions are so slow. He’s doing exactly what I expected him to do. And with a little luck, he could be doing a lot better.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 15, 2009 9:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He's a guy whose BABIP

has always been low…but not this low. It’s a remarkable .257 for his career. Wow. That’s really low. It’s probably about as low as it can be for a guy who’s still an effective player. Mark McGwire was similarly low, but even a TTO machine like Adam Dunn is much higher.

Anyway, you are right, that number should come up somewhat. But even without it, he’s a good player.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 15, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

BABIP for Crede

is due to a number of factors, IMO luck being one of the lower contributors.

1. Low line drive rate. 16.3% is low, but it’s actually higher than either of the last two years.

2. He’s slow. Crede’s not going to beat out many balls in the infield.

3. He’s an extreme fly ball hitter. I don’t have the exact numbers, but I believe BABIP is higher for ground balls than for fly balls, overall.

4. He pops up a TON of balls. 16.2% for his career. Actually, this year’s 7.9% is by far the lowest of his career, 14.0% being the next lowest.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 15, 2009 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ground balls vs. fly balls

It’s logical that grounders would have a higher BABIP than flies – lots of ground balls make it through the infield, but not many fly balls make it past the outfielders, and some of the ones that do could possibly be classified as line drives.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 16, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is a peeve of mine

I have seen him hit a lot of balls hard. For example, he hits a lot of balls on which the right fielder has to make a nice running catch toward the line. Are these categorized as liners or fly balls? What are the criteria for liners versus fly outs? Is it trajectory? Is it the velocity of the BABIP? Perhaps these definitions exist somewhere. I know you have to draw the line somewhere. I just don’t know where they do now.

It’s like pop-ups versus fly outs. A pop-up is by definition an infield fly. But a lot fly balls are easy outs because they have a lot of hang time. Guys like Slowey and Baker are devalued by those balls even though they’re easy outs.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 16, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm guessing it's subjective

which obviously has its problems, but in general I’m ok. Yes, there are soft and hard fly balls, and the chances of making an out vary greatly. I suspect this balances out over the season. It would sure be nice to have Hit/Fx data on trajectory and hang time. That’s the missing piece for defensive analysis, IMO.

With fly balls versus popups, I’m not so sure. It’s striking that HR/FB tends to stay pretty centered around the 10.0% range across MLB, regardless of whether you are talking about a GB or FB pitcher. Baker and Slowey give up a lot of fly balls, thus they give up a lot of home runs. Fortunately, they have very good SO/BB ratios, so the home runs tend not to do too much damage.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 17, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep. I believe this is the case

and I’ll have to check the exact differences.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 17, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The thing with Crede is...

that is he hits .250 and 20+ homeruns, plus plays the same defense he has displayed so far, most will be very happy. His career average is .250, so we shouldn’t expect that to rise a whole lot.

by Twins Territory on Jun 15, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Everytime I see him at the plate I just say “think about his defense” over and over again.

stop by Waving the Wheat (http://wavingthewheat.wordpress.com/) and The College Hockey Blog (http://thecollegehockeyblog.wordpress.com/)

by fetch9 on Jun 15, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Even at the plate

It’s exciting because you know he has the ability to knock the ball out of the park, I’ve been very happy with Crede who is on pace for close to 30 homeruns. I wish he didn’t have back issues and could be used as a pinch hitter more on his off days. According to Bert and company they won’t use him as a PH because when he’s been sitting in the dugout all game his back is too stiff to get up and hit.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jun 15, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I've been quite pleased

primarily due to the defense. Offensively, he hasn’t done all that much. Yes, he’s hit 10 HR, but otherwise he’s an out machine. We’ve gotten pretty much what we hoped for though.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 15, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's gota' be the glove!

His great glove is most of his value, making him a solid player right there, but he’s got enough power to do enough good with the bat that he is all around a very good contributor.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 15, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Throws

Crede is remindful of Greg Gagne in that he puts the ball on the first baseman’s belt buckle close to always, which after watching Buscher must come as a big relief to Mrs. Morneau.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Jun 15, 2009 6:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 15, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We wanted power at 3rd

I think the pickup of Crede was a great one, that filled one of the dire needs of this ball club. Joe Crede provides both a legitimate right-handed power threat and a sure-handed glove to the left side of the infield. I also think that we have yet to see the best out of him as a hitter for the Twins. If playing on the turf does not exacerbate his back, I expect him to hit between 20 and 30 home runs this year, which will be just in time to push the Twins into the postseason. I believe he has found a home in Minnesota, and I think he’ll be here until he retires from baseball.

by Sombaki on Jun 16, 2009 11:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Crede on the turf

I have noticed that his back stiffens up more on the road than at home. I think it’s because he has to stand on the dirt all game on the road, whereas he stands on the relatively softer turf most of the time in the Dome.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 17, 2009 10:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good call on dirt versus turf

I wonder if the long flights have anything to do with it as well.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 17, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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