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Off Day Discussion Topic: Your Favorite Stats

The Twins are off today, meaning that we'll have to make our own fun this afternoon and evening.

With that in mind: let's go into Coffee Talk Mode! We ARE getting a bit verklempt...

Snl-coffee-talk_l_medium

So we'll give you a discussion topic, especially you number-lovers out there: what are your current favorite stats?  You're allowed to pick up to three, no more than one in each major category (fielding, batting, pitching).

Mine: on offense, it's OPS.  I was unsure about this until I saw how strongly correlated OPS is with runs scored, and when you combine that with its simplicity to calculate, I'm sold.  It is - dare I say - elegant.

For fielding, I'm enjoying the trend towards Ultimate Zone Rating, if only because it's a single number and it directly translates to runs. I can't claim to understand the mathematics.  Maybe somebody else wants to take a crack at explaining them.

On the mound, I'm yet to be convinced in any direction.  Fielding Independent Pitching, OPS Against, so on and so forth - anybody a convert one way or another?

(Baseball returns tomorrow.  For now: discuss!)

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OPS

I haven’t seen anyone do the specific correlations to runs for many stats, so if you have a link, that would be great. My impression has been, and was only aded to in Moneyball, that OBP is disproportionately important. In Moneyball they said that they found 1 point of OBP to be worth 3 of SLG. I’d like to see someone run some correlations of different adjusted numbers (e.g. OBP + SLG/3), and see how they work out.

I’m also curious about how important it is to have “different” types of hitters. For instance, the argument was made that the twins needed a power bat, and Crede fit that mold. I’m curious if this is true. So for instance, if two teams had similar OBP and SLG, but one team had higher variance on both (some speed guys, some power guys), while the other team was more balanced, who would score more runs.

Anyone interested in a research project :)

by snolls on Jun 15, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

btw

Which means that I right now value OBP and OBP against as the two most important frequently used stats. I then like to look at % of PAs that turn into XBHs, on the theory that doubles are worth a lot more than singles, but each extra base after that is less valuable. But, since I have to calculate that myself, I don’t use it much.

I don’t understand the fielding stats at all, so I use UZR, because the people who sound like they know what they’re talking about on this board use it. I don’t claim to get it.

by snolls on Jun 15, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

GPA

This is essentially what Gleeman did on THT, took (1.8*OBP+SLG)/4 and found it’s roughly on the scale of Batting Average. It’s actually pretty cool how it works out, but like said below, its too confusing to explain to people. So OPS is more vanilla and easier to convince.

by Milt on Tilt on Jun 15, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OBP vs. OPS

I completely agree with you – OPS’ weakness is that it overrates SLG-heavy guys like Joe Crede and underrates OBP-heavy guys like Joe Mauer. The real problem with a 3OBP+SLG stat is that, even though it’s a more accurate representation of value, it’s more unwieldy than vanilla OPS, and it’s hard enough to get the anti-nerd crew to even pay attention to OPS.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 15, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is pretty much how wOBA came about

an attempt to isolate 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, etc effect on scoring runs.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 15, 2009 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like wOBA for hitting. I think it does the best job of balancing getting on base and hitting for power. As far as pitching goes, I like xFIP the most because it’s FIP but it normalizes the homerun rate. As the saying goes: “pitchers give up flyballs, but hitters turn them into homeruns.” Defensively I look at UZR but I strongly believe that there’s no stat yet that can perfectly explain defense. Which is part of the reason why I don’t completely trust FIP either.

stop by Waving the Wheat (http://wavingthewheat.wordpress.com/) and The College Hockey Blog (http://thecollegehockeyblog.wordpress.com/)

by fetch9 on Jun 15, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

hustle and GIO

I’m a big fan of hustle to which GIO and that is why I’ve always felt Punto is the best player not only on the Twins but in the league. I’m just so happy that he’s off the DL did anyone see his bunt yesterday? That shot his hustle stat waaaaay up.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jun 15, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He definitely leads the league in Hustle. Is there some stat like “sliding head first percentage” otherwise know as SHFP because he would lead the universe in that. He is suck.

Founding member of the Dick Jauron Fan Club.

by taskersd on Jun 15, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Punto's up there in hustle,

But no one’s been able to touch Jeter’s stranglehold in InTangibles, TrueYankee%, or RealWinnerRate for years.

by JopeX37 on Jun 15, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know, I think Jeter is in decline

Wouldn’t a truly great RealWinnerRate guy be able to overcome the Alex Rodriguez ChokeMyth score?

by Eric in Madison on Jun 15, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

GIO

I thought I explained it but GIO is Grind It Out

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jun 15, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stats

Offense: VORP. Pretty all inclusive, adjusts for position, era, park, simple, easy to give a rough conversion into wins. Very accurately researched.

Pitching: I’m not a fan of any one stat yet. Pitching is still a relative menagerie of things in my mind. You have to look at various rates, GB’s, BIP data. I have a major problem with 3-true-outcomes numbers because pitchers DO have an affect over the number of grounders and pop ups and things. If we can get a FIP and add the 4th outcome – ball in play data – to it (ie, adjust for their number of line drives given up compared to the average) then I’d be very happy with the metric.

Defense: Since none of the pitching ones really stands on its own to me, I’m taking two (and sorta 3) fielding ones, oddly enough. I like UZR (paired with the out of zone plays number) for fielding, it seems very well measured and matches good observation the most consistently (and doesn’t seem overly variant form year to year like some fielding stats). I also very much like defensive efficiency to judge team defense (which is linked into judging pitching then). It isn’t perfect since it doesn’t take into account the skill of the pitching staff, but it’s a pretty good look.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Jun 15, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You may want to look into tRA

which does attempt to incorporate BIP effects.

by DK on Jun 15, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OPS+ and UZR/150

I like OPS+ because it adjusts for league averages, so you can compare how Crede is faring against, say, Gaetti.

I like UZR/150 because it tells us how a guy is doing right now in terms of how he would end up if he doesn’t improve or regress.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 15, 2009 3:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

How about Wins and Losses?

Pretty important stat.

Founding member of the Dick Jauron Fan Club.

by taskersd on Jun 15, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Good answer.

I like this one.

by Jesse on Jun 15, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, when it comes to the team overall.

Using them for individual pitchers is pretty close to meaningless.

by DK on Jun 15, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting side note

Several games back, I think it was during the Cleveland series, John Gordon and Dan Gladden had (what I believe to be) the most ignorant discussion by baseball announcers ever. They started to discuss era, pitching stats, and wins/losses. I think the impetus for the discussion was the fact that the pitcher on that day was either Blackburn or Slowey, he was throwing a very good game, but looked as if he was going to get tagged with a loss (may not be remembering this perfectly accurately).

I’ll cut to the chase by saying that the two of them agreed that the only stat that mattered was wins/losses. Fine, wins and losses are the only stat that really “counts” for the team, but here is where it gets F’d up.

The two of them said that the only stat that matters for a pitcher is wins/losses and worse yet they said that if a pitcher (they also extended this analogy out to ANY player, and even the FANS) goes out to dinner and says well we lost, but at least I pitched well, that player is selfish and they do not want that player on their team. All a player should care about is whether the team wins or loses.

THIS ISN’T TENNIS!

This is a team sport and one player cannot win or lose (except maybe in the most rare of circumstances under the most narrow definition possible). All a player can do is perform well enough to carry his share and contribute to the effort. That is one of the more compelling reasons stats have become so important to baseball in the first place.

I am not a stats person myself, I have a serious phobia of math, statistics, or numbers in general, but PLEASE people get it straight. If you dont like stats fine, but at least understand that stats are useful for analyzing certain things and that wins and losses are not helpful for anything pther than analyzing the team as a whole.

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 16, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

note - this rant is not directed toward anyone participating on this site in particular,

unless Dan Gladden and John Gordon are lurking around somewhere… please, please, please!

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 16, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's assinine

I remember last year, when Livan was sucking it up and pitching five-inning, five-run baseball but getting wins mostly based on run support and they were praising him as the Ace of the staff. I can’t listen to them. Not only do they call a bad game, but their analysis is so old school, it’s misleading to all the casual fans out there.

A guy who pitches eight innings of two-run ball and gets the loss contributes more the winning baseball than a guy who pitches five innings of five-run baseball and gets the win. Why? Because the eight-inning guy saves the bullpen for three innings so they can be used in the five-inning game. It’s like military strategy. Sometimes you have to lose the battle to win the war. The fact that those two morons don’t get such a basic thing and they’re supposed to be the experts drives me nuts.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 16, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anything and Everything on Fangraphs

Pertaining to defensive stats, I don’t trust one singular system so I try and compare all available data. UZR/RZR/FRAA/Rtz/RF9 and if available Dewan’s +/-. If they tend to agree I tend to believe them.

Interestingly enough, my favorite for relievers is WPA. Nice way to look at the difference from when they entered the game to when the left. Or if you prefer, WPA/LI.

by Milt on Tilt on Jun 15, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

FanGraphs is the balls.

I love what they measure, everything from BIP data to tallying first pitch strike % and average velocity. I’m on that site at least three times a day.

by Jesse on Jun 15, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How much research has gone into the newfangled pitching stats?

I’ve never actually seen any data regarding exactly how accurate FIP, xFIP, and the like are at projecting pitchers’ performance. Supposedly they are better than just using ERA, but I’ve never seen any figures of exactly how much better. Anyone know any more about this, or where to find it?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 15, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is a tough one for me.

Offense: I like BIP—LD%, GB%, FB%, HR:FB, etc. My second choice is OBP, although wOBA is pretty great as well.

Defense: UZR, or UZR/150. Fielding Bible’s +/- system is also a phenominal, and phenominally simple, system.

Pitching: It’s all about TTT for me. HR, K, BB. Sure, you can be a fly-ball pitcher, which works against you, but that doesn’t make the TTT system any less accurate. Ultimately, if you’re on the right side of average in all three of these categories, you’re going to be a good pitcher.

by Jesse on Jun 15, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Catcher's ERA

I don’t know if there are any places that actually calculate this, but I think a valuable stat would be the the ERA of catchers when they are calling games.

For stats that actually exist.

Offense: I like OPS, but lean more towards the OBS side vs the SLG side it. ie. if two players have the same OPS but one has a higher OBS than SLG I would rather have the OBS on my team.

Defense: I am not really sure, UZR seems ok, but its new to me.

Pitching: I like WHIP a pitcher can get lucky and get out of innings, but if a WHIP and ERA are drastically different something is up.

by Swedishdest on Jun 15, 2009 6:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

cERA

exists, and it is awful. Doesn’t really have any rhyme or reason to it at all

stop by Waving the Wheat (http://wavingthewheat.wordpress.com/) and The College Hockey Blog (http://thecollegehockeyblog.wordpress.com/)

by fetch9 on Jun 15, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the stats that are out there,

wOBA, UZR and FIP (would be xFIP, but it’s not easily available on fangraphs).

I’d prefer to break down everything based on runs (baserunning, moving the runner over, etc.), but right now I’m stuck on defense, as well as having three under 5 year old kids in the house…

by Adam Peterson on Jun 15, 2009 9:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

WPA for relievers seconded.

WPA for relievers is a great one. WPA is a “neat” stat in general but not necessarily one Mike on Tilt is right on one several counts. I realy like WPA for relievers. In general, WPA is “neat” but I don’t see it as particularly predictive, but for relievers who often come in with two outs and men on, it’s more worthwhile valuable. I always like to look at their strand rate, too, which at extremes tends toward luck. Both those things are in some ways captured by xFIP, my hands down favorite for pitchers in general, since it indirectly incorporates GB rate and eliminates a(n at least mostly) luck-fueled variable — HR/FB.

Regarding hitting metrics, here’s a great series if you missed it:

Mike also nails the fielding question: run too far with any one given zone type number at your own peril. When they agree, though, it’s difficult to argue.

There was a great article recently at the () putting forth a new metric the guy calls Simple Zone Rating. The kicker was that Derek Jeter was found to be the all time second worst infielder in terms of total number of plays made below average, which is probably why the article stuck with me and why I’m pointing it out here.

by tobynotjason on Jun 16, 2009 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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