Jim Souhan Trashes Twins Offense and Money Ball

by Mark Kieffer on Jun 19, 2009 11:11 AM EDT Comment 27 comments

I really do not get it. Souhan wrote an article today trashing the Twins offense. The premise of the article is that the Twins have gone from a speed team, to a team that relies too much on the homerun, and resembles a "Money Ball" offensive philosophy.

He claims the Twins are 1 dimensional. He points to the stats that show the Twins are 24-16 when hitting a homerun, but 10-18 when they do not.

It's kind of interesting to complain about this. Most of the cricism of the Twins offense in the past is the lack of power in the lineup. Remember those years when we'd have a good pitching staff but one of the worst offenses in the league? In 2005, the Twins were last in the AL in runs scored with 688 on the season. We had the 3rd least amount of home runs in the AL, and were 4th in the league in AL in steals. The Twins had the 5th best pitching staff in the AL.

How did that workout for them? They went 83-79 and finished 3rd in the AL Central.

The Twins currently sit 7th in the AL in homeruns. They are 6th in Runs scored. The offense isn't holding the team back. What's holding this team back is consistency in the rotation, and in the middle relief. The Twins are 10th in the AL in ERA, and have allowed the 6th most runs in the AL as well. Once the pitching gets better, this team will do better.

What's wrong with finally having guys on the team with pop? It's obviously helping us as we're scoring runs. Now, I don't disagree that some of the speed guys could do a better job of getting on base, and that would help us score more no doubt.

The problem is pitching, however, not lack of speed. Sorry Souhan, but you do not know what you're talking about.

You can read his article here.

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the problem

The real problem, of course, is that Souhan is a terrible writer. Maybe he wasn’t at some point, but his baseball columns have been atrocious for years. If we have a discussion every time he pens some moronic diatribe, we won’t have time to talk about anything else.

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jun 19, 2009 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As a Money Ball Junkie

I apologize. I just find it interesting his take on the Twins problems being on the offensive side instead of middle relief and consistant starting pitching.

I find it more interesting than saying we should get Freddy Sanchez or whether Mauer will bat .400, but I guess that’s just me…

Clone Chronicles

by Mark Kieffer on Jun 19, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not aimed at you

Sorry, wasn’t trying to hate on you for posting the diary or anything. Just trash-talking on Souhan’s awfulness, is all. I think we can agree that he’s terrible, no? =)

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jun 19, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Same stuff, different day

The headline says it all: “Homers are nice, but Gardy needs speed.” I think the Twins line-up is pretty well balanced, except the speed guys aren’t doing as well this year as they have in the past.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 19, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Honestly, I think that is exactly Souhan's point

by guinness junky on Jun 19, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's fix this!

I say the Twins trade Morneau for Chone Figgins. If that still isn’t enough, they could throw in Kubel, but I’d like rather they save him and see if they can pry Juan Pierre away from the Dodgers. Also, I’ll bet Usain Bolt could be persuaded to switch sports, taking a Herb Washington role (and we know how great that worked out!), for the right amount of dollars.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 19, 2009 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the speed of lack thereof is not the issue

nor is the problem the guys who are actually, you know, hitting home runs. The problem is that the lineup has too many sinkholes of teh suck. If the non-power guys were more like Denard Span runs would be more plentiful (not that their offense has been that bad so far).

The thing is, they have 5 guys with more than 100 PAs and OBPs less than .300. And that doesn’t include Punto, who has managed to get his above .300, though is still terrible. They would be better off MORE like “moneyball” really.

by Eric in Madison on Jun 19, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

word

You nailed it, brother. We’re getting abysmal production out of everyone but 6 guys on offense as far as I can tell. (M&M, Kubel, Cuddy, Span, Harris)

Well okay, Crede isn’t abysmal, and he more than makes up for it with his glove. That OBP is pretty bad, though.

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Jun 19, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember that Moneyball has nothing to do with hitting or not hitting home runs.

It has to do with exploiting market inefficiencies.

by DK on Jun 19, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Question

He points to the stats that show the Twins are 24-16 when hitting a homerun, but 10-18 when they do not.

Does anyone know where to find every team’s records in this situation? I’d guess they’re pretty similarly different, even for “speed” teams.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 19, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

It sounds to me like the Twins problem is that sometimes they don’t hit homeruns. His statistic proves it. If they hit home runs every game, they’d have 7 more wins.

Also, the twins have tons of speed. That definitely isn’t their problem. There are certainly a couple of other teams that could compete, Phillies/Mets/Rays, for instance. But in terms of speed, Span/Gomez/Casilla/Punto/Mauer and now Tolbert/Pridie are nothing to scoff at. The problem is that most of these guys can’t get on base, and none of them can steal a base.

MT Twins fan (post below this) – I hear what you’re saying, but I still don’t like his writing. His points are poorly researched, and his tone is cynical, not analytical. It FEELS like he is just phoning it in (Reusse as well), though I suspect the fact is that he has practiced and trained to write this way, based on comments for editors, etc. This must be what works in sports journalism.

by snolls on Jun 22, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Certainly in fashion

to trash Jim Souhan, but I think if you were to read the article without the pre-disposition that he is wrong, you will see that he makes some very good points.

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 19, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't believe I'm about to defend Jim Souhan.

The overall point he’s making here is that the Twins used to win on traditional baseball tactics of “small-ball”. And it’s true, because the offense had little to no power, but still found ways to scrap together enough runs to win more games than they lost. This was due in no small part to the pitching, but the offense still found ways to outscore the opposition with what nobody will deny was a generally weak lineup. And Souhan doesn’t praise this fact, he just states it as a fact in juxtoposition with how the Twins are succeeding offensively this season.

What he’s really saying, Souhan, is that the 2009 Twins score runs differently than they have over the last eight years. He supported it with a weak statistic, more or less arbitrarily pointing out win-loss records with and without hitting a homer, but it’s still true.

But the most interesting part of Souhan’s article wasn’t what Souhan wrote, it was the quotes from Gardenhire about Gomez, Young and Casilla. Yikes all around.

by Jesse on Jun 19, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Same here, I really dont think he is going as far as the OP says (i.e. I don’t think he is trashing the offense or slamming the “moneyball” philosophy), and while he could have said it better he isn’t saying much different than what we have been saying around here, that the Twins have 5 to 6 exceptional hitters and 3-4 horrid hitters on any given day.

But the most interesting part of Souhan’s article wasn’t what Souhan wrote, it was the quotes from Gardenhire about Gomez, Young and Casilla. Yikes all around.

I know, those opened my eyes as well.

by guinness junky on Jun 19, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kind of disagree

If you read the headline he’s saying that Gardy needs speed.

That isn’t necessarily the case. Gardy needs the guys who don’t hit HRs to get on base…. To agree with another poster, in order for the Twins to have a Moneyball team, they’d need to have lots of guys with high OBP.

Since that isn’t the case, Souhan doesn’t really know what Moneyball is, or what it’s all about. Moneyball isn’t about just waiting for the homerun. It’s about getting on base. Moneyball guys love players that take walks. Many of the Twins hitters are too damn impatient to take a walk, and to find ways to get on base, and that’s the problem.

I still think that the pitching has a longer way to go if the Twins want to be serious about the postseason. I’m going to be more picky about the glaring holes on the team, instead of being nitpicky on the team with the 6th best offense in the AL

Clone Chronicles

by Mark Kieffer on Jun 19, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I won't argue that.

His title is misleading, and the Moneyball reference is totally wrong, but the point of the piece isn’t totally worthless. It’s just an obvious observation.

by Jesse on Jun 19, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I may be wrong

but it is unlikely he wrote the headline

by guinness junky on Jun 19, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is true.

Someone else usually writes it up the line. My issue is, where do these guys or girls get ideas for these titles that have virtually nothing to do with the content? Do they just call it something closer to what they wish the article was about? Or do they just close their eyes and point, then use that word as the subject of the title?

by Jesse on Jun 19, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Moneyball

Souhan doesn’t really know what Moneyball is, or what it’s all about. Moneyball isn’t about just waiting for the homerun. It’s about getting on base. Moneyball guys love players that take walks.

As mentioned above by DK, Beane’s philosophy wasn’t confined to OBP – it was about finding useful skills that were undervalued. At the time, the most undervalued skill was the ability to take a walk (and by extension, OBP) – the market was willing to pay more for a .300 hitter with a .320 OBP than a .250 hitter with a .350 OBP, and Beane aimed to take advantage of that fact. Supposedly, after OBP became more valued by the mainstream, Beane shifted his focus to defense, which was still more difficult to measure statistically and often based off flawed observations.

At it happened, the “OBP uber alles” philosophy, as well as the focus on statistical analysis, were the things that people seized on, and now “Moneyball” is a convenient bogeyman for old guys who hate computers and math.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 19, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I refuse to believe his numbers. There is no way that homeruns correlate with winning. No way.

by seanbergmanrules on Jun 19, 2009 7:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm assuming you're being facetious. I can't tell.

Reading text is funny that way.

It’s not that home runs don’t correlate with winning, it’s that using them as the sole stat behind wins and losses misses too much out. It’s interesting, but it’s just part of the story.

by Jesse on Jun 19, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Harold Reynolds told me

Pitchers walk power hitters to clog the bases so they can’t score from second if the next guy gets a hit. He’s a major leaguer and you guys aren’t, ok?! Stats are bad.

by TMW on Jun 19, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

lol

did he tell you that while the two of you were in the shower?

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 19, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Souhan just needs to wait untill Denard Span is Back!!!!

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 19, 2009 8:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Tortured Logic

In 2009, the Twins are 26-6 when they score 5 or more runs, 8-29 when they don’t. They’re also 25-5 when they allow 3 or fewer runs. 10-29 when they allow 4 or more.

So I guess we’re overly dependent on scoring runs and preventing runs from scoring.

Souhan can cite our record with and without home runs, but it’s useless until one compares to the rest of the league.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 20, 2009 8:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs