Game 71: Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
by Jesse on Jun 21, 2009 11:30 AM EDT
in Game Threads
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PrintHouston Astros at Minnesota Twins, Jun 21, 2009 2:10 PM EDT
First Pitch: 1:10pm CDT
TV: WFTC29
Radio: Twins Radio Network
Know Thine Enemy: Crawfish Boxes
Starting Pitchers
In his first start back from the disabled list on Tuesday, Perkins was more effective than he was in the five starts preceeding his time on the DL. In seven of his nine starts, Perk has struck out exactly four hitters; the other two occasions he retired two and zero. For Glen to be effective today, it's going to be about limiting the damage: be stingy with the walks, keep the ball in the park. Houston will get their fly balls, so hopefully the outfield will be on their game.
For a guy with a girl's name, the 30-year old Rodriguez is a pretty good pitcher. He's come into his own being able to strike out guys the last couple of years, and even better (for the Astros) is that he's cut down on his home run rates as well. At least until his last three starts, since of the nine home runs allowed in 2009 eight of them have come in his last three starts. So maybe the homer-happy Twins are getting him at the right time? Wandy throws a fastball around 90, a 76 mph curveball (he'll throws this a lot, it's a good pitch) and a changeup to keep things interesting. If Rodriguez is hitting his spots and that curveball is working, he could easily get through his innings without surrending that long-ball, while at the same time sitting down quite a few on strikes.
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Morneau day off
1. Carlos Gomez, CF
2. Brendan Harris, SS
3. Joe Mauer, DH
4. Michael Cuddyer, 1B
5. Jason Kubel, RF
6. Joe Crede, 3B
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. Mike Redmond, C
9. Matt Tolbert, 2B
Starting pitcher: LH Glen Perkins
HOU not posted yet
Morneau day off
Probably makes sense, he’s been scuffling a bit.
There is a lot of dead weight in this batting order, with Redmond behind the plate as well. I don’t like Gomez in the leadoff spot, would rather see Harris-Mauer-Cuddyer-Kubel at the top.
by Adam Peterson on Jun 21, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick question
as we get started. I am new to this blog, and while I love statistics, I am very ignorant when it comes to them. I went to fangraphs to get a glossary, but it was not as helpful as I was hoping for. Could someone give me a quick top 5 or 10 explanation of the commonly referenced stats here? I know ERA and OBP, some of the basic ones. The outfield UZR (I am probably getting this wrong) is more confusing. OR; if you have a good link to explanations I would take that as well. Thanks fellas;
If Ozzie Guillen likes Punto that much, I vote we send him down to Chicago. Punto and Guillen deserve each other.
BABIP
BABIP = Batting Average on Balls In Play
Excludes strikeouts and home runs. Most pitchers regress toward a BABIP slightly above .300. So if a pitcher’s BABIP is below, it generally means he’s lucky, and vice versa.
Line drive rate also plays a role, as does GB/FB ratio. If a pitcher is giving up a ton of line drives, he’s going to have a high BABIP, and it’s not due to luck.
by Adam Peterson on Jun 21, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll start with these...
BABIP - Batting average on balls in play. Average is in the .320.330 range, and is usually directly a correlation of how they hit the ball (line drives, fly balls, ground balls, infield flies).
LD%/GB%/FB% — Percentage of balls in play that are categorized as a line drive, ground ball or fly ball. The more line drives someone hits, the better hitter they are considered to be…since line drives are the most difficult to convert into an out. Average for line drive percentage is 18-20%. If you hit a lot of ground balls, like Delmon Young, you can get away with it if you’re fast (like Carlos Gomez), because you can convert some of those ground balls into infield hits. Fly balls can turn into home runs, but they’re also the most likely to be caught for outs (think Joe Crede).
K%/BB% — Strikeout and walk rates, as a percentage of plate appearances.
FIP — Field Independent Pitching ERA. An accurate representation of ERA that assumes a league-average defense.
HR:FB — How many home runs per fly ball hit. League average is around 11%. If you’re a flyball hitter and your HR:FB ratio is higher than 11%, you’re probably going to be hitting 25+ home runs.
O-Swing%: How many pitches guys swing at outside of the strike zone, a great stat for talking about plate discipline and strike zone judgment. League avearge is around 25%.
ISO — Isolated power, which is a way of telling how good a player is at collecting extra-base hits. There are a couple of different ways to calculate this, as Baseball Prospectus calculates it this way ((2B + 3B + (HR*3)) / AB) while others calculate it this way (Total Bases – Hits/At-Bats) or this way (2B + (3B*2)+(HR*3)). You need to be above .180 to be considered a power threat.
wOBA — Weighted on base average. You can look at the number as you look at OBP, but it tells you more than how often a player reaches base…it also tells you how far they get. A doubles-hitter with an OBP of .350 is more valuable than a singles-hitter with an OBP of .350, and wOBA gives you this.
I sure wish they would start Morales instead of Redmond
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
that was my first thought too,
but do you think they felt Redmond (with a little bit of NL experience) with his greater experience and wisdom can call a better game for Perkins? I would rather see a better called game from our catcher if it will help Perkins get a quality start, than see a less experienced catcher who won’t help the inexperienced Perkins when the offensive difference in one game is likely one hit (if even).
In other words, better defense and a 1-4 game from Redmond outweighs poor defense and a 2-4 game from Morales, no?
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
not "defense" per se,
but ability to call a better game, and Perkins can use all the help he can get.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Trib also reports
that Slowey’s next start is pushed back a few days because of that side tightness he experienced in his last start
LD rate/BABIP luck
Just got on. Actually, a pitcher’s LD rate is almost totally luck, too. Google DIPS 3.0 or LIPS or Dave Studeman or David Gassko and you’ll find the stuff.
I find this hard to believe
but I’ll check out the analysis. Thanks!
by Adam Peterson on Jun 21, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I would have put Kubel ahead if Cuddyer, but whatever.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
They're the only two left-handers in the lineup,
so I’m thinking it’s so that a bullpen arm later in the game can’t come in to get both of them. A decision based on strategy, I’m thinking…
Nice at bat for Harris, 10 pitches for a walk. =)
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
GREAT walk by Harris.
Man on first with one out, middle of the order coming up…hopefully the boys can knock one across here.
He does well when it's hit right to him, he's athletic, good arm, etc...
…but his range leaves a little to be desired.
Why the hell would we have Perkins pitching instead of Swarzak?
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Anything besides him as a starter.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
I think Perk's alright for a 5th starter.
And Swarzak will get his time, one way or the other. But I think it’s hard to make an either/or decision in favor of the new guy off of just five starts.
Or we could start R.A. Dickey. =)
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Bly Bertleven.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
I LOVE YOU MICHAEL CUDDYER!
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
That Cuddyer kid has skills.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Crede would be awesome if he could just raise his average,
.227. Yuck.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Great nickname.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Mike Redmond baby!
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Nice grab by Keppinger at third base, robbed NBP of a double there.
Even Crede the Lumberjack might have scored.
3-1 after two.
Anybody impressed with Crain's pitching this year?
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Haha
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Yes
the right field seats over the baggy in the Dome. They’re quite “impressed” by Crain’s pitching…
by Adam Peterson on Jun 21, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
We need to fire Gardenhire and promote Stan Cliburn.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
I do love me some KFC popcorn chicken, though.
And great Christmas presents.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Gardy does alright.
He’s been at the helm for a couple of division championships, that has to stand for something. I don’t agree with everything he does, and it seems like sometimes he can out-think (or under-think) himself at times, but I still think he’s a decent manager. And I like that he gets fired up and is willing to get the boot to protect his players.
Plus it’s fun to see him get kicked out.
You have a solid point with the getting kicked out thing.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
We need to take him out.
That’s too much for Matty to handle.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
he hustled back to the dugout after the K tho
that’s big in Gardy’s Big Book of Major League Managing
I wish Casilla would produce and get his head in the game,
because he has some decent skills for a middle infielder. But he’s a headcase.
a few weeks ago there was a blurb on some blog somewhere
that Twins’s 2B was the most unproductive position in all of baseball. I doubt it’s changed
Here is is....
Hitting as second basemen, the Twins have compiled this line: .197/.256/.261.
That’s a .517 OPS, 32 points behind the next worse team, the Giants. The league average OPS: .746.
That’s just all kinds of awesome.
3 up 3 down for the Twins in the 3rd.
Outside of Cuddyer’s bomb they’ve just looked lifeless. Sort of like last night…
Twill be okay.
Mauer will get on base and Cuddyer will blast it into the stands to tie the game.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
We should have R.A. Dickey play 2nd base.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Hunter Pence kills baby twins in his spare time.
Because he’s been killing us this series. Another hit.
Tolbert...
error for an out? Gladden is making it sound bad.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions
ball off of Harris' glove...
sounds like the d. isn’t helping Perkins much.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions
We really need to pick it up. I have 100 bucks on this game.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Whew!
Finally, it’s been a while since I got to sit down and listen to a game. Sucks that we’re behind…. has the offense sucked this game or is it Wandy?
If you expect them to suck...
…and after years of making n00b pitchers look like Santana, I do, it’s not so bad.
It always worries me when they’ve hit a lot of home runs lately. The team is just not meant to do that and it strikes me as luck more than a bunch of doubles (which implies the team is hitting).
I miss Denard.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
He never disappoints does he?
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Wandy is throwing some WAY outside pitches.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
OR
We can play R.A. Dickey.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
you willing to throw in
2 kittens to sweeten the pot a little?
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Pudge walks.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Who got hurt?
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
ooo
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
C'mon, Mauer.
We need production out of this lineup!
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
so I was just about to say Perkins seems to have settled down and thrown decently since the first
I have the radio down to watch U.S. Soccer so I just have gameday up.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
yup!
as bad as they looked against Brazil, they are looking pretty good today against Egypt.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
right now they are.
one goal from them, or Brazil (on ESPN) and they advance.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
hmmm...
I’m no mathmetician but I thought the goal differential was 6, so U.S. needed 7 points or more between them and Brazil.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
US actually played well against Italy
just got some unlucky breaks and Italy really capitalized on their opportunities.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
this is exciting, flipping back and forth
Italy needs a goal, Egypt needs a goal
as is, USA advances on total goals scored
yep they just explained.
goal diff was 6 but US will have one more goal for total to advance as is…
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
U.S. WINS Too!
Bring on Spain Wednesday.
gotta feel bad for Egypt – this game meant SO much more for them and their fans.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm calling another Cuddyer homer.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
So...
So trailing by 3 Professor Gardenhire brings in Guerrier. WIth a small lead or in a tie game, THAT’S when he goes to the killer Henn-Ayala combo. Wow, is he earning his money or what?
Luckily
Gardy saved Guerrier to use him here down 4-1 instead of, oh, idk, using him yesterday when WE NEEDED HIM.
Stick >>>>>
Dead Horse
well in all fairness Rodriguez pitched well
lots of 0fers on that box score.
by montanatwinsfan on Jun 21, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
R.A. Dickey, baby!
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Dickey really has a great pitching arsenal.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
That's what I call an inning, bitch!
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Here comes Morales.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
C'mon, Joseph!
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
This could go down as a candidate for the most boring game I've ever seen.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Son of a bitch!
I’m going to the bar! There goes my money!
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
Once again,
you can’t win a game with just home runs.
"He didn’t call me or anything. It was an accident, but a lot of people would have called to see how someone is doing after they got hit in the head. Especially if they had to go on the DL." — Morneau on pitcher Ron Villone after an April 2005 beaning.
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