Meet: Bobby Keppel
by Jesse on Jun 22, 2009 4:55 PM EDT
in Player Profiles
44 comments
Your replacement man for Luis Ayala, who gets a trip to Rochester stamped DFA.
A few days after his 27th birthday, the Mets' 2000 first-round draft pick is getting his first opportunity with what is already his fifth organization. Drafted right out of high school, the Mets liked Keppel for his penchant for strikeouts and his ability to keep the ball on the ground. He reached New York's triple-A affiliate by his fifth season in the minors, losing strikeout numbers but doing a solid job of keeping the ball in the park. Unfortunately for Keppel, the Mets weren't impressed enough to keep him on the 40-man roster and had to release him. He wasn't reaching his potential ceiling, and with a group of young hurlers coming up through the system New York cut their losses and let him loose in May of 2005.
Over the following three seasons Keppel signed with three different franchises, garnering 38.1 major league innings with two of them. Nobody must have been too impressed, because he was always granted free agency in the end. And not always before the season itself reached conclusion.
In his last three appearances for the Red Wings, Keppel logged 21 innings, striking out 14, walking just one and surrendering seven runs. On that positive note, Keppel has now compiled 996.2 minor league innings, with a 1.41 WHIP and a 4.53 ERA. His strikeout rates are pedestrian (5.2 K/9), and even the home runs haven't been as top rate as once advertised (0.8 HR/9).
It's hard to speak for what he's thrown in Rochester this year, but over his brief time in the majors he offered a standard arsenal: fastball, slider, curve, changeup. Nothing stands out, with the fastball topping out around 90 and the curve being the slowest pitch in the mid to upper-70's. In those 38 innings opponents have hit the ball hard (23.5% line drive rate), and the home runs rates have actually jumped to significantly above average...in the bad way.
But there have been some positive results from Rochester. In fact, there's quite a discrepancy between the small-sample-size of his major league results, and how he's performed with the Red Wings. His HR/9 is just 0.2 this season; over the last two months his ground-ball rates have been over 60%. In spite of all this, his strikeouts continue to dwindle, managing to retire just 4.5/9 via the punch-out.
That's Keppel's profile. But what are we to expect? Worst-case scenario he's a AAAA pitcher, gets knocked around a little bit, and eventually gets replaced. Best-case scenario, Keppel starts at the back end of the bullpen and induces a great deal of ground balls, minimizing extra base hits and limiting his damage; maybe by late July or August has earned enough respect to appear in a few more high-leverage situations.
If he's used right and doesn't shoot himself in the foot, Keppel could be useful. That's the beauty (and curse) of a bullpen role--small sample sizes can either make you look brilliant or destroy your reputation. Clearly Keppel doesn't look like much more than a replacement-level pitcher, but you never know.
Wish him luck.
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Jesse, as I commented in the other thread
Keppel is a bad pitcher. Really. I admire that you don’t go out of your way to kill Twins players; I really do. But what makes this a better decision than keeping Ayala? Frankly, Ayala is more likely to have a run of decent pitching than Keppel, and I’m no Ayala fan.
Keppel’s ERA this year is a mirage. He’s barely replacement level. That isn’t his fault, but this whole situation is, in my view, something of an indictment of the front office. Cycling through replacement level guys in an attempt to find someone to give you good innings is a dubious way to run a bullpen. I’m all for trying to cobble together inexpensive bullpens, but this is not good.
I guess they didn’t want to lose him via his contract out, but that seems fairly shortsighted to me.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 22, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Keppel is a bad pitcher.
But I’m an optimist. Unless drunk, in which case I sometimes become a fatalist.
And I didn’t mean to imply that Keppel is in any way a better idea than keeping Ayala. I’m not sure that going forward, Ayala wouldn’t be the better arm to have around. Mostly I just like to introduce the new guys.
The point you make about cycling through replacement level guys is a valid one. It’s exactly what he is, and the only reason I can imagine that the Twins brought him up was for just that reason—trying to catch lightning in an energy-resistant rubber bottle.
by Jesse on Jun 22, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I completely agree. Really Ayala’s overall numbers look bad because of a horrible first month. He’s just over a 3 ERA since May started. You can say small sample size but if you look at his career before 2008 it seems sustainable. I can say I hate this move. Keppel has never done a thing in the majors and at least Ayala has had success at the major league level.
I hope I get proved wrong but I have no confidence that Keppel will be any better or even nearly as decent as Ayala has been.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Jun 22, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is mostly about Gardy getting fed up with Ayala
He started out real slow with a bad arm angle. Andy worked with him to get on top more and he started getting better results. On that BP fastball to Berkman Saturday, his arm was almost sidearm again. It’s that kind of mechanical thing that frustrates coaches until they go up to the FO and demand a change—any change.
I will say this: I don’t think Keppel will get a very long leash. The Twins have three guys at Rochester who are better than Ayala right now: Morillo, Delaney and Gabino. The only reason why Keppel gets the call over one of those three is an out clause in his contract. If Keppel sucks, he’s gone. If he somehow manages to pitch well, the Twins caught lightening in a bottle. AS long as Gardy doesn’t bring him in in high-leverage situations, it’s not a big deal either way.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 22, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's about Keppel's minor-league contract
>>This is mostly about Gardy getting fed up with Ayala
No, you can bet – and win that bet – that it’s about Keppel satisfying the Twins with his AAA performance in both relief and starting roles AND about Keppel being able to walk away from the Red Wings, probably on July 1, if he’s not promoted.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Jun 22, 2009 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're both right
:) perfect storm: Ayala frustrates, Keppel can go free agent soon so give him first shot
by ajmargarine on Jun 22, 2009 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
From my comments in the other thread, here are Keppel’s stats in AAA since 2006:
2006: 5.67 ERA, 1.566 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
2007: 5.38 ERA, 1.609 WHIP, 4.2 K/9, 3.9 BB/9
2008: 5.99 ERA, 1.663 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
2009: 2.44 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
What changed?
- Moved from the PCL to the International League. The PCL is a notorious hitter’s paradise, so his previous numbers may have been inflated by that.
- Switched from starting to relieving pretty much full-time (just 3 starts this year). It’s possible that he is simply more effective as a reliever, for whatever reason.
I’m worried that the first one is the biggie – his K rate is virtually unchanged, and while his BB rate is down a bit, the big changes are to his hit and HR rates. My fear is that his improvement this year is driven not by skill but by some combination of pitcher-friendly league, improved defense, and/or luck.
This move reeks of “We need to make a move so it looks like we’re doing something about this problem!” The one positive I can see is that, as a converted starter, Keppel is better-equipped to pick up mop-up duty if they want to give Dickey some higher-leverage work (which I’m fine with, as long as they put him in with the bases empty).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 22, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Four encouraging numbers in AAA
BB rate: 5.7%, GB rate: 57% HR rate: 1% FIP 3.2
Those are all career bests.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 22, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but...
The FIP improvement is largely driven by his homerun rate, which I think is a combination of luck and the move to a pitcher’s league – his HR/9 was 1.5 last year, and it’s 0.2 this year (1 HR in 55 2/3 IP). His “real” skill is probably somewhere in the middle.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 22, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
HR rate is not luck
It’s a matter of having an improved sinker. His HR rate correlates to his GB rate. I’m sure park and league factors also contribute. But his HR rate is probably one reason they want to go in this direction. He may give up hits, but he’s less likely to give up homers than Ayala.
Keppel is no great shakes. But I’m confident he’s an upgrade over Ayala.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW, Ayala's alsways had a high HR rate
Despite throwing a sinker, his HR rate this year is 7%, which is about his career average. THat speaks to his inconsistency: High sinkers end up over the fence more than any other pitch.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Preaching to the choir
High sinkers end up over the fence more than any other pitch.
Hey, it’s not nice giving us all Silva-in-2006 flashbacks.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 23, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, not entirely
I don’t mean to say that homerun rate isn’t something within a pitcher’s control – I’m merely saying that his homer rate so far appears to have been a bit lucky, in comparison to his actual skill at preventing them. Last year’s rate was a career high, so that’s probably not a fair comparison, but I don’t think he can maintain a rate of one homer every 55 innings, either.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 23, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ayala was DFA'd
not sent to Rochester
by ajmargarine on Jun 22, 2009 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The Strib has him being demoted to Rochester, that's what I went by.
I’m sure the DFA is accurate, though.
by Jesse on Jun 22, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Both could be possible – once a guy is designated for assignment, he can be sent to the minors if he makes it through waivers (and, for a guy with enough service time, if he agrees to the demotion).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 22, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how long he's been DFAed
Is it like Crain, where Gardy knew he was going down and still ran him out there in a tie game in the ninth inning? Gardy using this guy on Saturday was just inexcusable.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 22, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would assume it just happened
I don’t know that a guy can be pulled off the DFA train once he’s been named, although I’m not certain about that. If you know that you’re getting rid of the guy, though, I don’t get why you wouldn’t make the move immediately – they obviously think that Keppel is the better option, so why wouldn’t they put him on the roster as soon as possible once they’ve officially designated Ayala?
Do we know that the decision on Crain was made before the game? Optioning a guy to the minors takes effect immediately, without any lead time; it could be that they just had Morales on speed dial to call after the next time Crain stunk it up again.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 22, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They probably called around to see if anyone would take him
a la Livan last year. That way, they’re not on the hook for his contract.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 22, 2009 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pathetic
I heard Bill Smith talking about or minor league bullpen options on the radio the other day. He basically just listed our crappy Rochester bullpen. Keppel is not a real option to improve this team and Smith doesn’t have a plan to fix it. he’s just going to hand the ball to a bunch of guys with bad track records and hope a good pen gets made out of that somehow.
Smith is starting to look more and more like a bean counter with no baseball sense.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Jun 22, 2009 6:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hummmmmmm.......
Could this have been why Ayala wasn’t printed on the list of signing at the Twins autograph party?
Always the last to arrive at the stadium.
Hey, the Twins need to move someone in to move someone out. Still, Henn and Koeppel are on the hot seat. Will we see Deunsing again?
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
by rosterman on Jun 22, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Going with the Hot Hand
What do people think of the possibility that Keppel moves into the mop up role and Dickey moves to more high leverage situations? And Keppel’s up because he can probably go 4+ innings at a time if needed…
by ajmargarine on Jun 22, 2009 6:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not an Ayala fan
but he did seem to be pretty good at getting just one big out. Put him in for a whole inning and your in trouble though. The Twins bullpen is so awful, if the starter can’t go at least 7, good luck getting that ball to Nathan.
JT
by STLVikesFAN on Jun 23, 2009 7:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That belies his stats
FIrst batters hit .346 off him. That’s why he gave up so many inherited runners. If my math is right, he allowed 17 inherited runners to score. He also was really bad leading off innings, allowing an OPS against of 1.192 in those situations. So it seemed he was always pitching with men on base.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
grasping at straws
based on his career numbers he’s not much. But could it be true, as the Twins claim, that moving him to a relief role has improved his stuff?
“Like Henn, the Twins have been intrigued by Keppel’s conversion from starter to reliever, noting the improvement in his stuff. Keppel’s sinker has consistently been clocked in the low-90s, and he issued only 13 walks in 55 1/3 innings for Rochester this season.”
Do any of you baseball people find this plausible?
by by jiminy on Jun 23, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not for a sinker baller
Lots of guys do better when they can let it fly in the pen. LaTroy Hawkins comes to mind. But those guys are typically hard throws. The sinker is a finesse pitch—the more you throw it, the better it gets. Blackburn tends to get better as the game goes along. I wouldn’t want him in the pen. If Keppel is anything like Blackburn, he could struggle.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he's a counterexample
In addition to his homer rate being way down this year, Keppel’s hit rate is way down, too, from around 11 H/9 the last few years to 8.3 H/9 this year. Part of that is the HR rate, but his BABIP is also way down – .279 this season, after ranging from .313 to .333 the previous years at AAA. I would intuitively expect a successful sinkerball pitcher to have a somewhat lower BABIP (assuming some of another pitcher’s flies and liners become grounders), although I don’t know whether that’s actually the case.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 23, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That really shouldn't be true
groundballs are more likely to become hits than flyballs. I’m not thinking Keppel has some magical ability to avoid line-drives—he’d be a lot better than he actually is if that were true.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 23, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Movement
It’s hard to square up on a ball when it’s moving down in the zone. It’s not magic, it’s movement.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well,,,
OK. But his GO/AO ratio is really no higher this year than it was last year when he got hammered. You really think he suddenly got appreciably better this year than he has been his whole career?
I have seen nothing to convince me that his ERA this year is anything more than a sample size mirage.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 23, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
League factors
First, his GB rate has gone up some from last year. But, even if you put that on small samples, a big reason he stunk last year was his league. A league average ERA in the PCL is typically a run higher than league average in the IL.
His ERA is somewhat deceptive. But his FIP is well below league average for the IL. FIP is not a mirage. His FIP lowered from 5.77 to 3.20 from last year to this. The two things that affect that are his walk rate and home run rate—both career lows. That’s not a mirage. FIP is more than just strikeouts.
I’m not all that high on Keppel. I would have preferred Morillo or Delaney, actually. But as long as he’s not used in high-leverage situations, he should be better than Ayala, who’s numbers are even worse than they look (4.42 FIP) when you add inherited runners to his list of problems.
If Keppel doesn’t work out, they can go to Morillo or Delaney or Crain or Gabino. Given his out clause, I think they had to give him a shot. Why bother signing a guy with an out clause and letting him go?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but...
His FIP lowered from 5.77 to 3.20 from last year to this. The two things that affect that are his walk rate and home run rate—both career lows. That’s not a mirage.
I’d object somewhat to the use of FIP here, because his HR/FB is ridiculously low – he’s been Bizarro Scott Baker so far this year. I’d trust his xFIP (which uses fly ball rate instead of HR) before I trusted his FIP, because I don’t think he’ll be able to keep such a low HR/FB at the major league level. His xFIP will still have gone down thanks to the decreased walk rate, but not nearly as much as his FIP has.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 23, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Normally, when a guy gets better in a relief role
it’s because he can use his stuff more aggressively and thus miss more bats. Joe Nathan. Mariano Rivera. These are the best examples of that. A lot of good relievers are failed starters for exactly this reason.
Keppel has not started to miss more bats. His K rate is where it always is—substandard. The home run rate is nice, but almost certainly somewhat artificially low. The truth is that I don’t see any reason to expect him to succeed.
Maybe they’ll get a lucky 30 innings out of him. Anything can happen in 30 innings.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 23, 2009 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or
it is because he added 5 mph to his fastball with the help of pimp juice.
by wcooley on Jun 23, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could be
But his GB rate tells against that. The harder you throw the sinker, the straighter the sinker becomes.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
think
Brian Bass and Wilie Eyre at best.
Ayala is better than this guy….. Must be something personal with Ayala. His ERA wasn’t that bad. He could have handled a middleman role just not late innings….Keppel won’t be able to handle the late innings either.
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
by doofus on Jun 23, 2009 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Meat: Bobby Keppel
You misspelled the headline!
by guinness junky on Jun 23, 2009 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
:-)
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jun 23, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes!
I hereby declare guinness junky the winner of this thread.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 23, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't get it
Seems to me that Henn was the worst guy out of the pen lately but I’ve been missing some games lately.
Ayala wasn’t great in any way shape or form but I didn’t see this coming. I hope the Twins didn’t DFA him and eat the remainder of his salary b/c that just makes signing him even worse to me.
Typical Twins though, more times than not, they get rid of any FA signed in the winter and win or lose using what they got on the farm. Boone anyone?
I said Boone, not boones Gladden get back in the press box…
by caluofmn on Jun 23, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ayala's salary
All MLB contracts are guaranteed, so the Twins are on the hook for Ayala’s remaining salary unless someone claims him on waivers or they work out a trade.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jun 24, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ayala v. Henn v. Keppel
Here’s the thing: they ALL need to go, but since it’s totally unrealistic to expect a mass dumpage, particularly one coupled with no call up for Keppel given his contract situation, I’m just hoping they all manage to suck hard enough, soon enough that the Twins waste a minimum of time before looking for something better than “barely acceptable.” Ayala’s defense/luck-independent numbers have been garbage since BEFORE his injury — he only had 2 skill-based (good K rate, good BB rate, good GB rate) good seasons in MLB: his first two. Henn has proven what? That he can go on a half-decent run in AAA since turning 26 years old? I’ll be bowled over if he ever demonstrates anything more than that with respect to his ability as a pitcher in the game of baseball.
The Keppel move must be, as has been pointed out, contractually motivated, and I won’t be the least bit surprised if he doesn’t lasting the month of July as his track record on a whole is the worst of the lot. The two things making this year’s traditional numbers look so good, as many people have noted, are his ridiculous lucky 1% HR/Air rate and his equally lucky .278 BABIP. Those are NOT numbers rooted in repeatable skill, at least at the MLB level. Whether a legitimately MLB-quality pitcher can indeed post low BABIP and HR/FB rates if he’s pitching in the minors is certainly a possibility, but it’s never been demonstrated so far as I know. It would be an interesting research question: maybe look at the rehab stints immediately preceding SUCCESSFUL comebacks by MLB pitchers. I do think it is POSSIBLE, and I sure hope to hell it’s indeed the case — that Keppel’s figured something out mechanically (or via his move to the bullpen). He was very good in May and great in June with an improved K rate, fantastic control (in June, anyway) and a GB rate of 61%+. Because of his move to the bullpen move and the sexy GB rate AND because I think Ayala truly has nothing left, I think they made the right move, but let’s be clear: while Keppel’s got a sparkling 57% GB rate, he’s still gotten very lucky to have given up only the 1 home run on the balls that have been hit in the air. Good pitch movement or no, all evidence says MLB pitchers don’t have the ability to avoid line drives and don’t have the ability to suppress hits on balls in play (knuckleballer exception of about 10 points of BABIP aside) without extremely dominant strikeout and/or walk numbers (which only result in tiny dips in BABIP). Keppel’s been lucky, period, even IF his GB rate indicates newfound real skill.
Have Delaney or Slama proven anything in MLB? No. Might they in fact end up being good or better? Will Henn ever be good or better? That’s why I don’t get the Twins F.O.
by tobynotjason on Jun 23, 2009 9:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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