Monday Morning Coffee

by Jesse on Jun 8, 2009 7:00 AM EDT in Quick Hits

News and notes to start your week, and if you're lucky keep you away from work for a few more minutes.

The Twins won't be going to three catchers anytime soon. With certain guys knicked up and the manager not comfortable shorting the bullpen an arm, it looks like the Joe Mauer-Mike Redmond tandem is it for the time being.
Since the start of May, R.A. Dickey's numbers look like this: 23.2 IP, 18 hits, 16 strikeouts, 8 walks, 4 runs, 1.52 ERA.
Luis Ayala hasn't allowed an earned run since May 18.
Jesse Crain hasn't gone more than 2.1 innings without giving up at least one run since getting hammered for four runs on April 17.
Minnesota hasn't won two in a row on the road since April 24-25 in Cleveland.
Joe Christensen walks us through five prospects in baseball who will make an impact down the road, some sooner and some later.
Justin Morneau is doing some blogging, after losing a bet to LEN III. He believes the Twins are a playoff-caliber team, and he's never read a blog before. You're breaking my heart, Justin. This one is a couple days old, but seeing his picture is worth it.
Nick Nelson takes a look around the AL Central.
Brett Farve had shoulder surgery. Oh, wait...wrong site. Go here.
Brendan Harris is riding a 12-game hitting streak; .348/.412/.533 in that stretch.
Nick Punto hasn't taken a head-first dive into first base all month.

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Bullpen improvement

Based on the peripherals, it appeared that Ayala was due for some improvement. It looks like he’s found his groove.

I’m more surprised (and pleased) at Dickey’s improvement. Part is due to improving his walk rate, but he’s been quite lucky with BABIP (.278 vs 17.8 LD%) and strand rate (91.1%). We should enjoy the good pitching of late, but his 2.86 ERA is totally out of line with his 5.20 FIP.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 8, 2009 11:23 AM EDT reply actions

Dickey's a knuckleballer

FIP doesn’t work for knuckleball pitchers. That’s not saying that Dickey will keep this up but FIP is irrelevant to the discussion.

by DJL44 on Jun 8, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions

I was not aware of that

Why doesn’t it work for knuckleballers? Is there some evidence that they have more control of balls in play than regular pitchers?

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 8, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Walks

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 8, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Nope

I googled it, and according to what I found, the issue is indeed balls in play – knuckleballers generally are able to maintain a better-than-average BABIP than conventional pitchers (although the Wikipedia article on DIPS implies that most of that is based on analysis of Tim Wakefield). As a result, FIP overestimates their ERAs – I saw half a run mentioned as a value for this, although it was from a blog comment, not from anything official-looking.

I guess “walks” isn’t totally wrong, as I’d assume part of the reason FIP isn’t accurate is that it overestimates how many of the guys they walk are going to score based on a normal BABIP – knuckleballers do generally walk a lot of guys.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 8, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I could see it

but the analysis would have to go beyond Wakefield.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 8, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd be very interested in this analysis

I may expect a knuckleballer to have, in general, a lower LD% against, which would result in a lower than average BABIP and a tendency to outperform FIP. In Dickey’s case, his BABIP is still outperforming a 17.8% LD%, roughly by about 20 points.

However, I would also expect any impact to be tempered by a lower strand rate due to the increased chance of passed balls or wild pitches. Those extra bases would move the runners around…

Finally, I’m unsure of how a knuckleballer’s HR/FB would wash out. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a higher rate in general for knuckleballers since it seems like so many of their fly balls end up sitting on a tee.

In any case, even accounting for a half run for the knuckleball, Dickey is still outperforming his FIP by a wide margin.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 8, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Bingo

It’s also worth noting that Dickey has allowed 10 of his 13 inherited runners to score, which doesn’t show up in his ERA. He’s alright as a long man when he can enter each inning with empty bases, but if Gardy gets it into his head to start using Dickey in higher-leverage situations (like he did for a while with Bass last year), I expect the results won’t be as agreeable.

by DK on Jun 8, 2009 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Inherited runners

10 of the 12 inherited runners against him have scored, including all nine runners with the bases loaded. That’s not good.

That said, since Gardy figured out that you need to bring him in with the bases loaded and no game on the line, he’s been pretty good.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 8, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry

Just read your post after positing mine.. Doh!

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 8, 2009 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions

No problem

Just great minds thinking alike!

by DK on Jun 8, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions

He's been useful as the 6th starter

Since so many starts have failed to get through the fifth inning.

But I agree, don’t bring him in the high leverage bases loaded situation. Other than Nathan, Mijares is the only guy I want in those situations…although his control hiccups are concerning me.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions