Oakland 4, Twins 3: Swarzak loses control, lead; Twins lose again

by Jon Marthaler on Jun 9, 2009 12:54 AM EDT in Game Recaps Comment 24 comments

Josh Outman flummoxed the Twins to pick up his fourth victory. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Anthony Swarzak failed to work through the fourth inning, losing an early 3-0 lead, and the Twins dropped their third straight game and their 11th in their last 14 games away from home. Starter Josh Outman was excellent for the Athletics; the young lefthander struck out seven in six innings, and allowed just one baserunner in the innings other than the fourth.

Jack Cust's fifth-inning home run off Luis Ayala proved to be the game-winning run for Oakland, which won its seventh straight game. It's the A's longest winning streak since August of 2006.

It was the fourth that made the difference - really for both teams. In the top of the inning, Outman got the first two hitters easily, but then appeared to come unglued. A single by Michael Cuddyer and a walk by Brendan Harris got the Twins going. Delmon Young followed with a ground ball to deep short, and Orlando Cabrera couldn't get the ball to second base in time to force Harris. With the bases loaded, Outman briefly lost control, walking the near-unwalkable Carlos Gomez to force in a run. Matt Tolbert, the next batter, plonked a bloop single to right to score two more, and the Twins had a three-run lead.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, in the bottom of the inning, Swarzak didn't waste any time in falling completely apart. He walked the first two hitters of the inning on eight pitches, each missing by more than the previous pitch (and each drawing a louder cheer from the small Oakland crowd.) Harris, playing shortstop, made a great play to get a force at third on a Kurt Suzuki ground ball, but Swarzak responded to the out by plunking Aaron Cunningham in the head. (Three inches lower, and Cunningham would have been in real trouble. The outfielder left the game after running the bases, which was probably for the best. Here's hoping he's okay.)

With the bases loaded, struggling former Gopher Jack Hannahan lined a double to left-center, scoring all three runners and killing the Twins lead.

Another great defensive play by Harris got a second out, but the third walk of the inning was enough to chase Swarzak after just three and two-thirds - and likely send the young righthander back to Rochester, presumably to learn how to throw a strike.

And of course, since the Twins were on the road on Monday, this adversity was enough to throw them into a tailspin for the remainder of the night. The littlest things are enough to throw the Twins off - even a fifth-inning solo home run was enough to sink them. After the fourth, Minnesota put a grand total of two men on the bases.

Not surprisingly, once again, it wasn't enough to get the Twins a road win.

Three Twins Black Holes:

3. Delmon Young
I can't stress enough how ludicrous this is: Young was the designated hitter. This is like assigning John Daly to guard your whiskey supply. Anyway, Young struck out and didn't get the ball out of the infield in three trips. He could go up there with anything - a golf club, a boat oar, a wiffle bat, a piano leg - and he'd have an equal chance of getting a real hit: zero.

2. Justin Morneau
Struck out three times against Outman, looking increasingly worse in each at-bat. He's been killing lefties this year, but Outman was just too good.

1. Anthony Swarzak
Couldn't find the plate in the fourth, and if he can't make adjustments, he's going to have to go back to Rochester to learn how.

Three Twins Stars (such as they were)

3. Sean Henn
Shut out the A's for 2.1 innings, something both Swarzak and Ayala failed to do.

2. Matt Tolbert
Two-out, RBI single was an unexpected clutch hit for a team that desperately needs clutch hits.

1. Joe Mauer
A pair of singles in four trips to the plate. Considering the rest of the team combined for a grand total of three hits, I'd say that's something.

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Frustrating game

I guess I can’t expect too much from the offense when the last four batters in the order have these lines:

6. Delmon Young .236 / .275 / .268
7. Carlos Gomez .220 / .285 / .297
8. Matt Tolbert .185 / .272 / .247
9. Alexi Casilla .180 / .242 / .225

I suppose it could have been worse. We could have sit Harris for Buscher and batted Redmond…

Put it a different way. At this point, we have six hitters who have produced at below a replacement level to this point. Looking at RAR:

Young: -13.8
Casilla: -8.7
Tolbert: -6.1
Punto: -3.2
Buscher: -1.0
Gomez: -0.5

Combined, these six players have provided -33.3 RAR. In other words, over a full season, about 10 wins if we could just get replacement level performance from these guys.

In 2008, we got a total of -28.2 runs of below replacement level performance, with Young, Monroe and Lamb being the worst offenders.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 9:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Swarzak

Escaped a couple jams early on, but once he came out for the 4th inning, it really looked like he started aiming and short-arming the ball. Looking at body language, he seemed to lose composure once Harris made a couple errors and one or two strike calls didn’t go his way. Hopefully Perkins is ready.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Delmon Young

Looked like crap again. His swings almost looked like swinging bunts they were so tentative. At this point, his trade value is right in the tank and we can’t send him down, so it’s a tight bind.

I saw a few comments in the game thread about potential DFA or attempts to send him to the minors. At this point, I have to believe he’s not going to get much better defensively, so he needs a pretty significant improvement to get up to even replacement level. We can’t afford to keep running him out there for strikeouts. It’s time for the coaching staff to earn their pay.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 9:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but he won’t even listen to coaches. He’s to dead set in his own ways

Son, when you participate in sporting events, it's not whether you win or lose: it's how drunk you get. ~Homer Simpson

by thewild_viking_twins on Jun 9, 2009 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which of course is not good

but if the coaching staff cannot / will not get through to him, they have to share some of the blame.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What can they do

Take him by the scruff of the neck and pull him behind the wood shed for a good old fashioned whoopin"?

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 9, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't know what to do about him.

Honestly, the “made-up anxiety disorder” route would seem to be the best way to go; at least he could get some single-A rehab time in.

by Jon Marthaler on Jun 9, 2009 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yup he doesn't want to listen to coaches

I don’t know what they do with him other than bench him or make up an injury (mental or physical) but he needs to not play now.

by caluofmn on Jun 9, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This team has no fight or swagger on the road

it’s like they all miss their mommies or something.
millionaire boys playing a boys game. If this team thinks of itself as a possible playoff team then, they had to scratch out a run to tie the game and fight for a win.
instead the bats go to sleep.

by caluofmn on Jun 9, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right now, this is not a playoff team

The light needs to turn on in a few places before we can consider this to be a playoff team.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

At least Mauer got two hits… he was starting to flirt with .400 after that Seattle series.

The “John Daly guarding your whiskey supply” line was fantastic. You’re right, though – at this point, putting Delmon at DH is worse than when they use to have Tyner do it.

Regarding the awful RAR numbers, I’m wondering if the replacement level bar might be too high for the middle infield – Tolbert/Casilla/Punto have been awful, certainly, but I tend to think of replacement-type players (prospects who aren’t quite ready or veteran AAAA types in the “AAA roster filler/emergency callup” stage of their careers) in the middle infield as generally good-field-no-hit types like those guys. “Replacement level” is supposed to be what you’d get from a readily-available street free agent or AAA callup, and I honestly wouldn’t expect much more from that than what the Twins have been getting.

Does anyone know whether there’s been much research into how accurate the replacement level bar actually is? I know that for VORP, it’s generally 70 points of OPS (more for catchers), but in the VORP definition I read, it was accompanied by a parenthetical “this needs more research”. That page was a few years old, so it’s possible that research has occurred; just curious if anyone else knows.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 9, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Middle Infielders

Are already getting credit for a lower level of replacement. In the standard RAR calculation, C, SS, 2B and CF are all credited. In Tolbert, Casilla and Punto’s case, they were credited 2.9 runs as a position adjustment, effectively lowering the replacement bar. As DH and 1B, Kubel and Morneau are docked 4.7 and 4.8 runs respectively due to a higher replacement level.

The simple fact is that we’re talking about OPS (so far) of 543, 582, 519 and 467. By comparison, Punto’s disastrous 2007 OPS was 562. Effectively, we sent out worse than four 2007 Puntos last night. It may be a miracle we scored three runs…

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sigh

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 9, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Black Holes - One Fans Suggestion for Roster/Lineup Changes

Let’s send Delmon to the minors and bring up Morales. Morales goes to DH on most days and bats in the 2 hole with Mauer/Morneau/Kubel/Cuddyer/Crede moving down to their more natural positions in the batting order and then Harris at 2nd base gives us 8 hitters with our defensive ace Punto at #9. Kubel must be able to play left field 4 to 5 days a week for this to work. Redmond, Gomez, Buscher, Casilla or Tolbert off the bench gives enough coverage to rest guys when needed.

Gardy gets his flexibility at catcher, Punto can be 5th/emergency outfielder. Morales is a switch hitter that protects the plate well, sees some pitches and hits for good average. Delmon gets a chance to find his swing and regain his confidence in minors (or not) … either way we have little to lose as his trade value is low.

Thoughts?

by twinsfan2 on Jun 9, 2009 5:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If we could send Delmon down

We would have by now. Unfortunately, he’s out of options. So the Twins would have to send him through waivers to get him to the minor leagues.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jun 9, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Plus, running Kubel/Span/Cuddyer out to the field regularly will get a little ugly.

by DK on Jun 9, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about

Span – LF
Gomez – CF
Cuddyer – RF

for an everyday OF?

Kubel is the 4th, that’s an OF I could live with. I think I missed something, why would the OF be Kubel, Span, Cuddyer?

by caluofmn on Jun 9, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I would recommend

The comment by “twinsfan2” proposed using Morales as DH and Kubel regularly in LF. That’s a bad idea. I agree with what you, and AP below here, propose.

by DK on Jun 10, 2009 4:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree

That’s the best OF alignment. Delmon has to stay in the majors, he’s the 4th OF. Sit him until he will take the coaching staff’s direction…

by Adam Peterson on Jun 10, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts

The only way we send Delmon down is if he clears waivers. He’s going to have to sit on the bench as the fourth OF, playing once every 3-4 games.

Morales had a nice hot streak up here, but he’s not a DH. He’ll probably make another trip or two up to the big club in case of injury, etc.

I’d go with Span-Gomez-Cuddyer-Kubel at OF-DH. Gomez sits when Mauer DHs and Kubel plays the OF. Span, Cuddyer and Kubel need to play pretty much every day.

In the IF, Morneau and Harris pretty much every day. Crede as often as his back can take it. Casilla or Tolbert at 2B. Buscher spells Crede every once in a while against RHP.

At no time should we have more than two of Casilla-Tolbert-Gomez-Young-Punto in the starting lineup, until one of them turns it around at the plate.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 9, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Delmon clearing waivers

I don’t see Delmon making it through waivers. Horrific this year or not, he’s still a former #1 overall pick who tore up the minors – there are plenty of franchises who have crappy enough major league rosters to be able to absorb his bat on the chance that he fixes whatever’s wrong with his hitting. If he makes it through waivers to the minors, it will be the same way that Michael Restovich did back in ‘05 – repeatedly claimed by teams with the opportunity to do so, until finally there’s no one left to claim him. I think poor Restovich went through five franchises that year.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 10, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs