It's not just their record that makes the Twins average
by Jon Marthaler on Jul 10, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
23 comments
Last week, columnist Jim Souhan of the Star Tribune wrote a column that concluded with this line:
Maybe this is what the Twins are this year -- a disappointing, opportunity-squandering, .500 team.
This was not a popular sentiment in the Twins clubhouse. Souhan was on Patrick Reusse's morning show on AM 1500 on Thursday morning, with a story:
"I kinda took a shot at the boys... and Gardy got mad at me. He told me the players were very angry with me."
So the players are angry at Souhan. I suppose that's good; it shows they're still in this enough to get mad at a columnist who's pointing out what is obvious, especially considering the team's 43-43 record: the Twins are not only a .500 team, but just about the most average team in the league.
Consider these AL rankings:
| Category | American League Rank, of 14 |
| Runs scored | 8th |
| OPS | 8th |
| wOBA | 8th |
| HR | 9th |
| Runs Allowed | 6th |
| ERA | 7th |
| OPS Against | 7th |
| FIP | 6th |
| Saves | 6th |
| Fielding Pct | 2nd |
| UZR | 11th |
I don't think you can argue that I'm cherry-picking those stats to make this argument; that's a pretty broad cross-section of judgments on how the team is hitting, pitching, and fielding. And not only is the Twins' record exactly average, but their batting and pitching numbers all place them among the middle four teams in the American League. (Their fielding numbers are in disagreement, which seems to me to indicate that they're truly in the middle of the pack.)
Unlike some other average teams, though, this seems to be the product of wild imbalances in quality between players. In Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, they have two of the best five hitters in the AL - but they've also given at least 100 plate appearances apiece to Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla, and Matt Tolbert, who are three of the worst 10 in the league.
On the mound, they've had one pretty good starter (Nick Blackburn) and one pretty bad one (Francisco Liriano); out of the bullpen, they've had two good ones (Joe Nathan and Matt Guerrier) - and three of the worst by any measure (all of whom are gone - Sean Henn, Jesse Crain, and Luis Ayala).
They have several very good fielders (Joe Crede, Denard Span when he's in left field) and at least one truly awful one in Delmon Young,who's been one of the worst fielders in all of organized baseball.
It's hard not to agree completely with Souhan, no matter how "angry" the players might be. With three games to go until the All-Star break, the Twins are right at .500 - and are right where they belong.
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Yep, they are average
and you hit the point: they are doing it with an extreme stars and scrubs approach.
That seems to me an indictment of Bill Smith. It isn’t as if the holes appeared out of nowhere; we all knew the weaknesses.
I really try to avoid this sort of thing, but I will say this: if he fails to solve any of the problems by the trade deadline, I think he will deserve severe, severe criticism. I avoid actually calling for someone’s job, but I would certainly have sympathy for that position.
It’s getting hard to defend him.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 10, 2009 8:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
“That seems to me an indictment of Bill Smith. It isn’t as if the holes appeared out of nowhere; we all knew the weaknesses.”
Exactly.
by Boot on Jul 10, 2009 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know, I think that statement is so much of an overstatement as to render it virtually false.
Did you (you meaning anyone, not necessarily “you” specifically) know that Alexi Casilla would not be half the player he was last year at 2nd?;
You knew 3rd base was looking like it would be a big hole, and then Bill Smith filled it;
Based on the last half of last season did you know that Delmon would be as bad as he has been the first half of this season?;
Did you predict that Liriano would be as bad as he has been, or that Baker would struggle as much as he has?;
That leaves the bullpen – the one obvious weakness that everyone, including Bill Smith recognized and yet failed to shore up.
It seems to me that such a sweepingly derogatory sentence as this: “It isn’t as if the holes appeared out of nowhere; we all knew the weaknesses.” is hindsight at its worst.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 10, 2009 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this statement is so narrow as to render it virtually false...
…sorry, couldn’t resist.
Seriously, though, let’s look at a slightly wider angle. Throughout the offseason, it was clear that there were serious infield problems. The roster, before resigning Punto, included Casilla, Harris, Buscher, Tolbert. We knew this was a major problem outside of 1st base. So they resigned Punto to be the shortstop, early in the offseason. That struck me as pretty total capitulation, especially since Smith had publicly stated that the left side of the infield was a target for improvement.
They waited, and waited, and waited, and Crede came available. Good job by Smith to get him, but there seemed so little initiative to do anything.
I could understand the decision to leave 2nd base open for Casilla, but there were red flags too. He had a hot 2 months, and had never been that good in the minors. Plus, it was totally BA driven, always a red flag.
So it’s obvious that there were major infield question marks. They wound up with Crede at the last minute. That’s it.
The bullpen is the other story.
I have zero complaints about his approach for the rotation. None. He did the right thing there by letting these guys have their roles. I’m still not worried about that.
As for the outfield, I won’t complain about his performance there, either. No way to trade Young or Cuddyer, for different reasons.
It comes down to the infield and bullpen. It’s hard to argue that he doesn’t deserve some criticism on both fronts.
The bullpen is it’s own story.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 10, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok then
as long as you are limiting it to infield and bullpen, I’ll concede that. And I agree with your analysis of Crede, BS did win that one but apparently only by default.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 10, 2009 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At least they don't have to play the Yankees in the 2nd half
They’re 7 games over .500 when they aren’t playing the Yankees….
I think their big problem is they can’t decide when they want to go for it. Do they want to be .500 every season and hold onto their prospects or do they want to take a shot one of these years and make some deals to fill holes? I would argue that you don’t waste MVP seasons from your star players and take a shot this year and next by emptying the farm system and/or the pocketbook to fill holes. Bill Smith seems content to consistently add to the organization capital. That doesn’t win championships unless you’re paying for those stars (Hunter, Santana) to stay with the team because you can’t line everything up in the 5 year window. The mandate from ownership seems to be “keep em close enough to sell tickets in September”.
by DJL44 on Jul 10, 2009 9:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Agreed, on both counts. Not playing New York will help, but Bill Smith has, thusfar, managed the team with the mentality of a bean counter. We’ll see if he’s bold enough o pull the trigger for Freddy Sanchez, though maybe the cost for that is higher than we think
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Jul 10, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Outfielders
During the offseason Gardy commented on the outfielders, that Delmon was the odd man out. I’m truly convinced that the outfield rotation isn’t working. The only outfielder I would say is truly not tradeable is Span and let’s try and leave him in LF. Include an outfielder in any trade for a middle infielder (Sanchez). 2nd base is truly killing the Twins..perhaps bring Casilla (should have done this b4 Allstar game) for another chance. If Twins don’t do something we can say goodbye to Maeur, home superstar or not.
by justintime on Jul 10, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Outfielders
During the offseason Gardy commented on the outfielders, that Delmon was the odd man out. I’m truly convinced that the outfield rotation isn’t working. The only outfielder I would say is truly not tradeable is Span and let’s try and leave him in LF. Include an outfielder in any trade for a middle infielder (Sanchez). 2nd base is truly killing the Twins..perhaps bring Casilla (should have done this b4 Allstar game) for another chance. If Twins don’t do something we can say goodbye to Maeur, home superstar or not.
by justintime on Jul 10, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We knew they needed a middle infielder and a bullpen arm
And they resigned Punto and picked up Luis Ayala. For $6M. Now I hear they have a chance to pay a GOOD player (an All-Star) at 2B and they are whining about $$.
by DJL44 on Jul 10, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Need to look elsewhere and fast
If our brilliant GM wants to prove he deserves his job after a largely disappointing free agency period (again) he needs to move a player to get a decent 2nd basemen and quick. Punto is a nice player and one of the best defensive players in the game. But when he and his counterpart at 2nd are both hitting below .200 they are too much of a liability to keep both (Tolbert has to go down).
Casilla is not an option, we won’t be seeing him back up here for a long time if ever (trade the douche) after he mouthed off to Gardy last time he was up.
If we don’t make a trade, and preferably a big one, we will remain the average team Souhan says. If the shoe fits Twins.
by Cobra312004 on Jul 10, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Souhan summed it up nicely there IMHO.
It’s seems like it’s been one blown chance after another this year. What do we rank with RISP? I’m guessing less than the AL average.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jul 10, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They're even worse than average on that count.
10th in the AL in batting average, 10th in OPS, 8th in RBI.
by Jon Marthaler on Jul 10, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a patient guy,
so I’m willing to put off extreme judgments on Bill Smith as a GM for awhile. Two years isn’t enough to prove anything to me, only enough to start a track record.
The important thing to me is that this move has to be made at the right time. Waiting until the Twins are five games under .500 and THEN making the move is unproductive. This team needs to be competetive to pay the price of bringing in a guy like Sanchez, which means it needs to happen NOW. if we lose much more ground, it may be too late.
This team needs help now.
by Jesse on Jul 10, 2009 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so I’m willing to put off extreme judgments on Bill Smith as a GM for awhile. Two years isn’t enough to prove anything to me, only enough to start a track record.
Agreed. Please folks feel free to start forming opinions, but wait until there is actually a track record before you start throwing the stones.
As for this team needing help now. I don’t think the Twins have the financial freedom to shore up the holes at this point.
Getting a decent 2b will be great, but our bullpen is still weak and so is our full starting rotation.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 10, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Money is a crappy excuse that I for one will no longer tolerate
People here should know by now that I’m a measured guy. I don’t get nuts, either high, or low. I tend to prefer a mildly pessimistic approach to the Twins.
But if money emerges as an excuse to not try to get better, I’ll be extremely angry. They have kept the payroll low for the past couple of years, and they are moving into a new stadium.
I call BS on that excuse. Go win.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 10, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here, here.
And also none of this “we’ll wait to win until next year.”
Next year the Twins will play 162 road games.
by Evan Nelson on Jul 10, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Financial freedom
Do the Twins appear to have space under their budget in 2009 to accommodate Sanchez’ contract? One would think so, but I can’t say for sure.
What I do know is that this team’s financial commitments go WAY up beginning in 2010. Mauer extension (hopefully), pitchers becoming arbitration eligible, etc. Obviously, revenue should go up quite a bit as well, so we should be able to cover an extra $8M to shore up 2B with Sanchez.
IF money turns out to be the excuse, then Bill Smith needs to get up and talk about this team’s plan. He’ll have to answer the questions.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 11, 2009 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They need to make a big trade for a 2nd basemen or a pitcher. Keep trying the same things over and over and expecting different results is insanity.
"If at first you don't succeed - Skydiving isn't for you"
by Zoxide on Jul 10, 2009 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Humor.
I find it funny that you say “Keep trying the same things over and over and expecting different results is insanity” next to a Vikings logo.
by Evan Nelson on Jul 10, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Before the season started
if anyone would have told me that at the All Star break that Kubel, Cuddyer and Mauer would all be at or near 15 homeruns and 50 rbi I would think we must be in first place. Get a bullpen arm and a middle infielder and turn this thing around fast.
richman
by anderson800 on Jul 11, 2009 6:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Great discussion
Yes, so far this team has been the very definition of average. What’s frustrating about this is that our top 3 guys measure up against anyone else in the league. As you say, the bottom of our roster is REAL bad.
Some of this is due to holes we never fully addressed (e.g., bullpen), but I don’t think the bullpen has been the problem this year. Has it been a strength? No. But SS (before Harris), 2B, and Young-Gomez (esp Young) have been the problem. We’re talking about hundreds of below replacement level PAs right there.
Jon, one minor nit. Our defense has been well below average. You can’t look at fielding percentage and UZR, one above average and one below average, and say the defense has also been about average. UZR takes errors into consideration, weighted appropriately against the balls a fielder simply doesn’t get to.
by Adam Peterson on Jul 11, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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