Santana's Fortune: Three Down, One to Go

With the arrival of Kevin Mulvey, the Twins are about to get a glimpse of the third of the four players the team received in return for the best southpaw in baseball, Johan Santana.

Anytime you make a trade it's easy to rush to judgment on which team won.  Ultimately only history can tell the tale, but it's really no secret what most people would answer if asked who won the Johan swap:  the Mets.  Is it any wonder?


Carlos Gomez G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
Minnesota Twins 230 764 107 193 35 10 9 77 39 181 40 15 .253 .295 .360


Philip Humber W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

Minnesota Twins

Rochester Red Wings

0-0

14-14
9

46
0

37
0

3
0

0
0

0
0

0
16.0

210
22

231
12

127
12

117
5

31
8

79
10

165
6.75

5.01
1.88

1.51


Kevin Mulvey
W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
Rochester Red Wings 10-15 44 44 3 1 0 0 241 261 132 107 22 86 202 4.00 1.38


Deolis Guerra
W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
Fort Myers Miracle

New Britain Rock Cats
17-17

1-0
42

2
40

1
1

0
1

0
0

0
0

0
216.1

9.2
233

13
137

7
124

6
18

0
96

3
128

8
5.16

5.59
1.52

1.66

Not the most glowing stat lines by any stretch of the imagination.  I'm looking foward to seeing what Mulvey can do for this bullpen's consistency, and with Gomez (23) and Guerra (20) being so young you can't write them off, the final chapter on this deal still hasn't been written.

Which is a good thing, because here's how Johan's performed as a Met.


Johan Santana
W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP
New York Mets 26-14 52 52 3 2 0 0 350.2 309 123 106 38 100 318 2.72 1.17

The good news for the organization is that people are already so disappointed with the outcome of this deal (the immediate satisfaction crowd is disproportionately large compared to those who prefer the long-term view) that even if none of these guys turn into bonafide stars, the worst of the reaction has already come and gone.  From where I'm standing, the review of this swap has nowhere to go but up.  Hopefully.

In a comment earlier today I mentioned that Mulvey is getting this call because he's been one of Rochester's most consistent pitchers since coming over from the Mets.  After doing my homework I've come to see that's not exactly true, but in spite of ups and downs it's the body of work that still stands out.  He has a 3.50 minor league ERA, and over his last ten triple-A starts has pitched 68.1 innings with 50 strikeouts and 19 walks, and a more than acceptable 3.82 ERA.  His FIP is even lower, at 3.55.

Good strikeout rates and mediocre walk rates point to Mulvey having the potential to be something more than a replacement-level arm, especially if he can continue inducing ground balls as he has this season (52% GB rate).  But just like all of the available parts from Rochester, this is a spot he has to earn.  If he struggles, the upside isn't there to entice the organization to keep him up in the hope that he comes around.

Best of luck, Mr. Mulvey.

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