Maybe things are looking up in Twins Territory
by Jon Marthaler on Jul 20, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
in By the Numbers
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PrintI've filled this space with complaining over the past few months. Like you, I'm pulling hard for the Twins, and it gets frustrating when they can't just rip off a winning streak and get a lead in the AL Central.
I've examined a few of the numbers, though - and it might be time for we Twins fans to find something new to complain about.
We complained mightily about the team's bullpen, most of which has been cycled down to the minor leagues or foisted off onto other teams. And since those deck chairs started being shuffled, well - the relief crew has improved to be one of the better ones in the AL. Even taking into account their awful start, they're now third in the AL in WHIP, fourth in save percentage, fourth in ERA, and fifth in OPS against. For the moment, at least, they seem to have found something that works, even if it does involve running Matt Guerrier into the ground again.
We bellyached about the team's inability to play on the road. Since June 1, however, the team is 13-9 on the road - and don't look now, but they've actually won five consecutive series away from home. (If you are the type to complain about the team failing to sweep any of those five series, please stop reading now and go away for awhile, just to calm your nerves.)
We've whined about Nick Punto. Since he came back from injury June 12, he's hitting .270 with a .405 OBP and a .754 OPS. By way of comparison, Brendan Harris's numbers since June 1: .270 with a .308 OBP and a .679 OPS. For that matter, Joe Crede, since June 1: .233 with a .290 OBP and a .690 OPS.
Punto's not the only one to show improvement. Delmon Young is batting .310 since June 1, and seven of his 27 hits went for extra bases: five doubles, two homers. Since June 15, Carlos Gomez has a .329 OBP. And Matt Tolbert has improved the Twins immensely by going back to Rochester.
We've expressed our disappointment in Scott Baker. In June and July, he's 6-1, his ERA is 3.97, his WHIP is 1.12, and he's striking out 8.1 hitters per nine innings. Francisco Liriano's still walking too many guys (21 in 49.1 innings over the past two months), but his ERA is 3.83 over that time, and he's striking out almost exactly one hitter per inning.
I'm forced to conclude that things are actually getting better. After all, the Twins are just two games back in the standings, with seventy yet to play... and their pitching is improving, some of the holes in the lineup are closing up, and they still have two All-Stars in the middle of the batting order.
I'm sure there are still things to complain about. But for the moment, at least, I think I'm going to work on something new: optimism.
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Unfortunately
this has coincided with Mauer’s return to earth, 1 for his last 22 to result in what would be a Great month for Matt Tolbert, but a godawful month for Mauer.
I’m sure there are still things to complain about.
Always! But it does seem that things are getting better, Mauer’s struggles aside. Once he gets it going again we should be able to really rack up some wins.
Mauer
Thankfully, I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Joe Mauer. He won’t be mired in a 1-22 slump forever.
YES HE WILL
THE HOMER DERBY HAS CLEARLY RUINED HIS SWING FOR ALL TIME, HE WILL SPIRAL DOWNWARD FARTHER AND FARTHER AND EVENTUALLY HAVE TO START HITTING RIGHTHANDED TO UNDO THE DAMAGE
(/sarcasm)
by Jon Marthaler on Jul 20, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Wasn't it just last year
that everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE, who knew anything about baseball and had a pulse said oh the Twins BA w/RISP is unsustainable and they will come back to earth. week after week, they/we kept saying it. Didn’t happen. Sure there was a minor correction, but the Twins ended with an “unsustainable” line right to the end.
Mauer just might finish the second half out 50-255. Well maybe not, but enough of this optimism crap already, its ruining my mojo!
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 20, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Liriano & Baker
Each putting up a start closer to what we expect from them. Especially against a power team in a homerun park.
Especially Baker.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Things to complain about
- Gardy still hasn’t figured out how to use a bullpen
- Gardy insists on hitting Casilla second
- Bill Smith is frozen at the wheel, afraid to make trades after getting his arse handed to him in his first two engagements
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Speaking of Bill Smith
I can’t believeMeridith and Lopez went for so cheap.
How could we not beat those offers?
uhg
I hope we don’t have the worst GM in baseball….
by clutterheart on Jul 20, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Just a question
When two teams have agreed on a trade, do they call all the other teams just to make sure there isn’t a better deal out there?
Generally
I cut Gardy some slack on the BP management, mostly because there are a lot of variables he is privy to that I am not, for example the general health/tiredness of his pitchers and how that all gets factored in as a game unfolds. I would prefer Nathan be used a little more, but probably not as much as some. And I really have no issue with him burning through set up men in an effort to minimize the toll on his closer.
Casilla/tolber/punto etc..batting second is just plain moronic. Breaking up the teams best OBP guys with an almost instant out is just stupidity.
Smith is a joke for a GM.
by guinness junky on Jul 20, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry
not the best OBP, but close to it.
by guinness junky on Jul 20, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't care about that one
Bill Smith is frozen at the wheel, afraid to make trades after getting his arse handed to him in his first two engagements
Can’t say I’m too upset here – barring a big retooling of the Sox or Tigers, I don’t see any need for the Twins to upgrade to stay in the division race. Sure, maybe a high-end bullpen arm or a second baseman who doesn’t suck would be nice (although I believe the Grudzielanek signing was the attempt to fix the latter), but I don’t think either are necessary for the Twins to make the playoffs, and once the Twins are in the playoffs, anything can happen.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Anything can happen?
You say you don’t see any need for the Twins to upgrade to stay in the division race. I don’t disagree with that, but presumably the goal here is to do more than “stay in” the division race, it’s to win it.
You also say that “once the Twins are in the playoffs, anything can happen”, but they aren’t going to make the playoffs if they don’t improve. In the remaining 70 games, anything can not happen. Teams will find their true level. And while anything can happen in the playoffs, I think the recent Yankees series showed us what is likely to happen.
Jim Souhan’s column recently quoted Morneau as saying that he and Joe had about as much money as they are ever going to need, and that they want to be on a winner. I am paraphrasing here, but the point is, I don’t think he was talking about a Central Division winner.
We have been notified. M & M want World Series rings, or at least to feel it is possible. Mr. Smith needs to get his rear in gear, or there will be a large echo in Target Field come 2011.
We'll soon see if Morneau had the green light to speak for Mauer
in regards to money.
Morneau is already signed long term so it is easy for him to create the impression that he is not a financial barrier for the Twins to signing more talent. He already got his money so of course he’s not stopping the Twins.
Mauer is another matter completely. If Mauer signs below market rate and publiclly tells the Twins, take your savings and get out there and sign some players to help me win a ring, I would cheer him from the mountain tops. But, if Mauer forces the Twins to sign him at market rate or offer a discount that really doesn’t free enough money to get real talent then I guess Morneau might have been wrong.
Sure the Twins need to stretch their budgets and make a push for a ring, I’m fine with that but what Morneau is saying feels like PR nothing more. We’ll see very soon if one M is on the same page with the other.
At the end of the day though the Twins are missing alot of windows here. They could have made a push when they had the league of nations infield, they could have made a push with a season of Santana and Liriano at the top of the rotation. Now they can make a push with the M&M’s leading the team.
Cmath
How would you use the bullpen differently? More Nathan? I’ve always thought that one of the strengths of the Kelly Gardenhire era is that they both used the bullpen better than most managers, from mediocre talents from Tom Edens to Matt Guerrier.
Last night, for example
I would have brought Keppel in two batters earlier, to start the inning. Liriano was lucky in the fifth and sixth. That wouldn’t last, and it didn’t.
He’s used guys wrong quite a bit, though. DIckey should never be brought in with guys on base because it reduces his options with the knuckler. Crain, and Ayala should never have been options in close and late situations. He used both those guys in tie games late within a week of their getting a ticket out of here. The Crain case is the most distressing, coming in the game before they shipped him out. I’d have to look at box scores, but there are at least a dozen games like that. Now, he’s had limited options, but in each case, Mijares or Guerrier were available, and they came before off days.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Some of these examples...
…are chalked up to figuring out what people can do. The rest are almost all game situations and who’s available.
There’s no way some guy sitting at home can manage any team’s bullpen better than the manager. The manager has ALL the information. The fan has some, and then he thinks he has more.
It’s what fans think they know but really don’t that accounts for the difference in decisions.
Think of it like the neighbors knowing more about how to raise your kids than you do.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Jul 20, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
There are obvious examples
Last year’s use of Rincon had to be stopped by DFAing him. This year, they had to option Crain out to keep Gardy from using him in close and late situations.
I get your point that he’s somewhat limited by the personnel out there. But there’s no excuse for using a guy in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game in the road when you plan on sending him out the next day because he’s not good enough for your team.
I wasn’t the only one screaming when he didn’t count his blessings last night after six and go to the bullpen. It was rested and ready to save Liriano, who only got out of the sixth by a freak double play.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm not convinced
These are nitpicky examples. Wouldn’t looking at the bullpen’s body of work over Gardy’s tenure be a much better way of assessing his effectiveness?
It would two years ago
Last year, he lost his touch, and 26 blown saves (10 by guys who were later DFAd) tell most of the story. This year, more of the same. We have lost at least 10 winnable games because of using guys who had no business protecting leads.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
And Matt Tolbert has improved the Twins immensely by going back to Rochester.
Hahaha.
I still do not understand the lineups that Gardy plays sometimes, but yes, our situation has seemed to improve drastically. If nothing else, I hope the Twins can pull off a division win. We can go from there.
Strikeouts are boring - besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls. More democratic. -Bull Durham
Yes
I also enjoyed the Tolbert comment, although it’s not entirely true, since he’s being replaced with Alexi Casilla. Casilla has reached the Rivas Zone with me – the optimism I once held for him has been replaced with expectations of failure and general disdain (dwintheiser is shaking his fist at me for that comment).
In other optimism news, I am happy with the Grudz signing, although I wish it had been a month ago (or six months ago, if Bill Smith were a time traveler who knew that Casilla would be terrible – that would also have implied that Delmon Young was going to have a breakout 2010, or Matt Garza’s arm was about to fall off).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
So when you say "up" you mean giving back 11 runs in a loss?
just when you think things are looking up, life kicks you in the nads.
Minnesota Twins Get to Kick’em
twins get consistant
come on twins, don’t make me go back to be a die hard texas rangers fan! sure they’re playing good now and love the line up they have but they’ll just start choking again as always. i can’t see any reason why this twins team can’t be winning 2 outa 3 most everytime.
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