Twins lose an awful game and give me nightmares about Cuddyer/Young

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 21, 2009 2:12 PM EDT

Seriously, I went to bed last night in a foul frame of mind after the Twins blew a huge lead. I woke up with the distinct "memory" that right before I had turned off the game the Twins front office announced that they had traded Michael Cuddyer for Freddie Sanchez and were moving Delmon Young into right field "where he belongs."

The Twins outfield would then be set at Span, Gomez, and Young with Kubel a full time DH. I don't know what would have possessed me to think that the Twins would make such an announcement at around midnight Central time, but I was shaken this morning to the point of having to scan the web for confirmation of that nightmare.

Then, after a little work, and some time spent harvesting some young vegetables from the garden, I got to thinking: would a trade that sent Cuddyer to another team and placed Young back in right field be so bad?

Someone feel free to break down the RF/LF splits for Delmon, but we all know Delmon was a much better defender in right field. Even in left field his range factor is identical to Cuddyer's this year, suggesting that he can get to all the balls Cuddyer can and when moved moved back to RF he would likely have a fielding percentage which is equal to Cuddyer's.

Young is not quite 24 yet and making $1.1million while Cuddyer is already 30 and drawing a salary of $7.6 million.

Offensively, despite our general gnashing of teeth Delmon is not that far behind Cuddyer.

Young career totals: .289BA; .323OBP; .404SLG; .727OPS

Cuddyer totals: .269BA; .345OBP; .451SLG; .796OPS

The big difference there is in the SLG percentage. SLG often separates out good outfielders from average outfielders but Delmon's past, and size sure do indicate that he is capable of matching a .450 SLG.

I really like Cuddyer. He appears to be a clubhouse leader and a great guy. I don't want to see him traded, but if it meant some good prospects, or an above average middle infielder it might not be sucha a nightmare.

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And this would be the year to do it

because he is hitting very well. At this point, I do not think anyone but our big 3 are off the table, so I am game.

Baseball is the soundtrack to my summer.

by FoulJack on Jul 21, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions

Peter Gammons

Talked about how Cuddyer is the leader in the clubhouse and is in charge of handing out a game ball after each win. Also he was designated as the player to take Delmon under his wing and teach him the Twins way of doing things.

Not sure why any of this is relevant, just an interesting anecdote.

by guinness junky on Jul 21, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions

Somehow I just keep picturing Cuddy being

very animated and talking about how ‘we do things here’ and going on and on in a very encouraging way, with Delmon just staring blankly at him. (with a cricket sound playing in background)

Baseball is the soundtrack to my summer.

by FoulJack on Jul 21, 2009 3:24 PM EDT reply actions

"Not that far behind"

70 points of OPS is not exactly trivial. Moreover, at least at present, using career OPS totals understates Cuddyer’s present value, because he was mediocre for a few seasons before winning the RF job in ’06 (admittedly, Delmon may be in a similar phase of his career now and poised for a corresponding breakout).

That said, I get the general gist of your post, and I’m not totally opposed to it. I do wonder, though, if Cuddyer has more value to the Twins than he would in trade – he’s a popular player (both in the clubhouse and in the community), and he’s probably not very well-known outside Twins territory, so teams looking for a PR bump (“Look! We did something!”) might rather get someone with similar talents who’s more famous nationally.

Pluses: Stabilizes OF rotation, improves OF defense (by putting Gomez and Span together every day), saves payroll, gets value for Cuddyer at possible peak

Minuses: Large downgrade in offense, eliminates lineup flexibility and depth (Pridie would replace Gomez/Young as the fourth OF, and Cuddyer would no longer be around to spell Morneau at 1B), trades away a popular and productive player

I wouldn’t trade Cuddyer for prospects, not when the Twins are still in the thick of the AL Central race, and it would have to be a fairly high-end shortstop in return (I can’t handle another huge hole in the lineup), but as much as I like Cuddyer, the rationalist in me isn’t completely opposed to the idea.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 21, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

Delmon lagging way behind his career numbers this year...

.289/.323/.404 isn’t much to brag about but that’s almost serviceably mediocre.

This year he’s .270/.297/.345. His K-rate is a career high. His ISO is a career low. His walk rate is down. We like to ponder what happened to the #1 overall draft pick that hit 20 homers in AA in the first half at age 19, but at this point I’ll settle for the guy we all were complaining about last year. Why does this guy keep getting worse instead of better? We can’t rely on him replacing Cuddy when he’s still on that the downward trend.

by DavidRF on Jul 21, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Not a downgrade on offense

Overall, our outfield offense would decline slightly, but that would be made up for in the infield, with Sanchez replacing Casilla or Punto (prob Casilla).

by snolls on Jul 22, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

Looking at the numbers...

I didn’t realize how well Sanchez was doing this year – he’s got a .814 OPS. The difference between him and Punto (the best-hitting option at 2B, which is really depressing to write) is about 250 points of OPS. Amazingly, the difference between Cuddyer and Delmon this year is almost as large, almost 230. In both cases, the difference is shrunk by using career numbers instead of single-season (the good ones are outperforming, the bad ones are underperforming).

So, basically, I was wrong – the offensive difference looks like it would be a net positive for the Twins, especially if Delmon and Go-Bot’s recent resurgences are for real. They’d basically be replacing a very big bat with a mildly big bat while replacing a miniscule bat with a small bat.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 22, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Cuddyer will be a Twin until his contract runs out

for two reasons: 1) The organization loves him; 2) he’s an aging, not outstanding corner outfielder with a bad contract that nobody else would particularly want to trade for. Why would the Pirates, for instance, want to trade one aging guy with a bad contract just to take back another one?

by DK on Jul 21, 2009 5:22 PM EDT reply actions

Cuddyer for Sanchez

straight up wouldn’t make sense unless the Pirates really needed an OF. I don’t think Cuddyer’s contract is too bad for a right fielder of his consistency (when healthy). Nonetheless, Sanchez has flat out refused to negotiate with the Pirates and clearly wants to be traded. We need to shore up a middle infielder this year to have a chance and if we do win the division Sanchez might negotiate a contract extension with us.

Anyway, Sanchez has been debated a lot here and the real point of my musings was to try and figure out how much worse off we would be with Young rather than Cuddyer. Cuddyer is one of the few “sellable” parts we have and I think it would be a shame to give up on Delmon yet. Nothing wrong with “depth” at any position, but the Twins rarely have the luxury for that payroll wise. Gotta agree with David RF that Delmon seems to be extra frustrating this year as he seems to be regressing but then again he had a slow start last season and heated up at the end. The last 30 days he has had much better line: .324/.350/.459.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 21, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

p.s. over the last 30 games Cuddyer has been a little better .278/.353/.556

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 21, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

No confidence

I have zero confidence that Delmon Young will ever put up the numbers that Cuddyer is putting up this year. The “better Delmon” that we have seen on occasion is still very prone to the strikeout and is still a hacker. Until Young shows that he can develop some plate discipline, he should not be afforded regular playing time.

I like Cuddyer a lot, alway have, but he has been so “unclutch” this year! I know that RBI are an opportunity stat, but he’s got 16 homers and only 50 RBI.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Jul 21, 2009 8:40 PM EDT reply actions

This is an extreme and non-exhaustive example

but look at last night’s game. Cuddyer hit a home run right after Morneau hit a grand slam. What else do you want him to do in that situation?

by DK on Jul 21, 2009 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Last year

MN tied for 1st place with Young, Gomez, and Span. I wonder if the outfield rotation hasn’t set both Young and Gomez back. You have to give up a quality player sometimes to get a quality player. I say we go with the youth movement for Young and see if Cuddyer can bring us Sanchez.. Plus, Kubel has been playing more outfield this year too, we’ got to many!

by justintime on Jul 24, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions