this is very good. I suspect that if you give people who made it to the majors an arbitrary 150 or so for Y, it might work… Another think is that there are some lower round picks who are very good prospects (Kubel comes to mind) but would not have much chance with this formula…

the Y does not take into account International Free Agent signees, which is a big downfall to this.

Nolan Ryan, argueablly the best pitcher of all time was drafted in the 12th round. Albert Pujols, one of the greatest hitters of this era was drafted in the 13th round. Why, because the scouts who watched and signed them had the rare intangible to really see the talent that would become future hall of famers.

First of all I don’t know how a “scout” has a “rare intangible” but more importantly, if I am a scout, and I see talent that will “become [a] future hall of famers” I think I might draft that player in the first round. Maybe the second round. Probably wouldn’t risk waiting through until my team’s cahnace came up in the third round. By the fourth round I’d probably be shitting my pants in fear that some other “scout” had “the intangibles” to see that these guys had “hall of fame” talent. By the fifth round I would start wondering why no one else saw this magnificant talent. By the sixth round I would consider starting my own “psychis hotline” business because clearly I am a superior scout who can see things that no other professional scout can…

Then we let that hall of fame talent slide all the way until the 12th or 13th round. Phew! I’ve got balls the size of a supercollider!

The numbers you have started with are created not only from an arbitrary range 40-110? but from a subjective decision by you as to which player gets what number. Why, for instance does Hicks get a 110 on your x axis, and Guerra gets a 105? Arbitrary based on the fact that you like Hicks better and “believe” he has a higher ceiling. Right?

Or why does AAA garner more value than A? Arbitrary again because that distinction would be exactly reverse if the AAA baller is 36 years old and the A baller is 18. Wouldn’t we all agree that the 18 year old in “A” has a better shot at making the majors than the 36 year old in “AAA”?

20 points if their signing bonus was over $1 milllion? Doesn’t that unfairly penalize players signed four years ago, and unfairly reward players signed this year, or players who have an aggressive agent?

Under the scenario you are setting up it doesn’t matter how many numbers or stats or “axes” you create if none of them are rooted in objective fact BEFORE you add the subjectivity. It all just ends up being subjectivity on top of more subjectivity.

That level of subjectivity creates more opportunity for bias. And the “objective facts” you choose to value creates another layer of subjectivity and another way for bias to creep in. So the most pertinent “facts” related to the proposed question, or hypothesis are the "facts’ you should start with first.

Example (with a shoutout to fischean)- Justin Timberlake is a better actor than Brad Pitt because:

he has blue eyes;
girls generally think he is more dreamier;
he has a larger fan base;
he makes more money;
he has been cast as a lead in more movies;
he has more Oscar nominations
he has won more Oscars

As we go further down the list we start to find criteria which are more objectively identifiable and are more pertinent to the ultimate hypothesis: Justin Timberlake is a better actor than Brad Pitt .
If you start with the first few factors and begin your analysis with those you are likely to have created major flaws through personal bias that cannot be corrected even after you try and factor in the last few "objective’ factors. By then, you are more inclined to throw out, or discount, the “objective” factors because you have already created an inertia for liking Justin Timberlake.

Instead start with the objective factors. Then you can start layering in the subjective factors in a more “honest” fashion: Brad Pitt has more nominations and major awards and better roles more often, but damnit I think Justin Timberlake is dreamier and has bluer eyes to boot! Therefore, I will rank Justin one level above Brad.

People know where you are coming from and you can defend your decisions better.

As a reader said somewhere, “sometimes a warrantless promotion is exactly what the doctor ordered.”

Just look at Swarzak.

I’d agree, I guess Because of the Fact I’m getting a little worried he Won’t Sign (Just like Blake Dean)

I put him down a lot lower because of that.

The first year back as a starter can take a toll. THey just need him to get his 120 innings or so however he gets them. Next year will be the breakout year for him. I rate him mostly on tools. He has the best sinker in the minors.