Twins Trade Rumors: Orlando Cabrera, Michael Wuertz and Freddy Sanchez
by Jesse on Jul 24, 2009 9:15 AM EDT
in Speculation
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PrintLate last night, LEN III updated us on the latest news from Minnesota's front lines. Well, the front lines for trade talks.
Indications are that the Twins are interested in Oakland shortstop Orlando Cabrera and reliever Michael Wuertz.
What scares me is that a guy like Cabrera is exactly the kind of guy this front office would go for. He's a veteran, a real "sparkplug" or "energy" player who's been in the post-season and would be viewed as a leader. It also helps that he's actually been hitting recently.
The problem is that Nick Punto's OBP is comparable, although I'll grant that I'd rather have a guy who could consistently hit .270 with a .320 OBP over a guy who could post the same OBP with a lower average. Then there's Brendan Harris, whose .697 OPS isn't great but is still better than Cabrera's. And it's not like Orlando has a history of being a better hitter, either.
Where Cabrera's history has been a plus, at times, is in the field. Over his last eight seasons as a shortstop, he's posted a positive UZR/150 rating. What's interesting is that he's been shockingly inconsistent. This season in Oakland, his UZR/150 is -9.3, the lowest it's ever been. It would be easy to say that it's because of his age, turning 35 in November, but he's also posting this number in a pitcher's park. So it's not as though the hitters are getting a lot of breaks, and that's playing havoc with the rating. With Minnesota hosting a fast-rolling turf, I'm not sure Cabrera is a good fit.
For reference, Harris' UZR/150 rating at short is -2.9. Not great, but not as bad as the alternative.
Wuertz, like a Scott Downs, is exactly the kind of guy the Twins need. He's a strikeout pitcher who doesn't allow a lot of fly balls, and he has a breaking ball that will snap your knees. Opponents are swinging at 38% of pitches outside the zone, which is outstanding. His FIP is 2.10, actually lower than his traditional ERA, so if this is a guy the front office is trying to make a move on, I have to say I whole-heartedly support it.
I don't get to say that very often.
Finally, in regards to Freddy Sanchez, LEN III says this:
If the Twins don't deal for Cabrera, there are indications that the Twins haven't ruled out another push for Pittsburgh second baseman Freddy Sanchez.
This is great to hear. Picking up Wuertz and Sanchez would plug two of Minnesota's biggest holes, and even picking up a guy like Cabrera would provide the bench with a little more depth. Stay tuned as we continue to watch the wire...
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Wuertz
Wuertz probably would pay his own salary with his cheering section. There’s a busload from Austin everytime he comes to town.
by DJL44 on Jul 24, 2009 9:53 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Wuertz and Sanchez...great.
But for goodness sake if we are going to spend, let’s spend alrady and get it done in time for the new players to actually help us. Otherwise lets move on. The more we wait the less of an impact those players will have.
Especially for a pitcher who onle pitches once every 5 days (starter) or every 2-3 days like Weurtz.
Someone who understands numbers please run the numbers and show us how little help replacing Perkins or Liriano with Halladay would be to us for the rest of the season.
Or better yet replacing Crain/Mulvey with Wuertz.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 24, 2009 10:47 AM EDT reply actions
Regarding Halladay vs. Wuertz
I like both and would take either one in a heartbeat. Our bullpen is bad enough, though, that Wuertz might actually help us out more in the short-term. However, I would take Halladay for the simple reason that excellent starting pitching is absolutely crucial in the postseason (as I’ve already gone over in a previous post).
The issue with Halladay
is that the Twins still don’t have anything the Blue Jays want. Sure, you could theoretically put together a package of Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Danny Valencia and Ben Revere and hope they say yes, but that just doesn’t seem like a good idea. And I’m not even sure if that would be enough, if only because our top prospects are all too far away.
I understand
You are correct that getting Halladay is most likely unrealistic. I was just answering the theoretical question of who would be more helpful between Halladay and Wuertz. Call me crazy, but your trade scenario actually sounded okay to me.
You're not crazy for liking that scenario.
I just wonder what a Jays fan would say to it. Because it does sound like a lot, from our perspective, but I’m not sure about the other side.
+1
I could see Perkins, Swarzak, Mulvey, Pridie and Revere, or some such five-player package. but I doubt that would do it. I would not give up Valencia or Baker right now.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Either package MIGHT do it.
But for God’s sake how could the Twins expect to trade away so much young, inexpensive talent for one very expensive guy who is guaranteed to walk in less than a year and a half?
Baker and Perkins? Is Halladay going to pitch every three days? Perkins, Swarzak and Mulvey. Is Halladay going to start and come in on relief on his days off next year?
Valencia? I guess, as long as EVERYONE agrees not to bitch next season when Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris platoon there and let every fifth hit BABIP from Halladay that comes within their “zone” get past them for a base hit…
Seriously though. Depleting this team’s reserves, depth and bench is a bad idea.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 24, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Just read this off MLBTradeRumors:
2:04pm: MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick passes on comments Dodgers GM Ned Colletti made this morning on KABC Radio. Colletti says the Jays want two or three current Dodgers, including a young pitcher, or five or six prospects.
Maybe my offer wouldn’t be enough after all…
If the Jays expect all that...
Halladay better get a contract extension as part of the deal.
Wuertz
would be a good get—he’s been fairly consistently good. I also think, though I’m not entirely sure, that he would still be arbitration eligible after this season, so they could keep him for another year without a longterm commitment.
I don’t have a ton of enthusiasm for O-Cab, but Harris/O-Cab would probably be a better MI combo than anything we can currently throw out there. Sanchez is more appealing, but also more expensive in both meaning of the term.
montanatwinsfan makes a good point—how much do deadline deals really help? Not a lot, really. But with the Twins, since we have been running out replacement level at second base, it might have more of an impact than the norm. And as we’ve seen, one or two wins can be the difference. After last night, I’m pretty pessimistic, though.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 24, 2009 11:36 AM EDT reply actions
Service Time
Wuertz has just over 3 years of service time coming into 2009, so yeah, he’ll be arb eligible for a couple of years yet.
Would it be Harris-Cabrera, though?
Gardy doesn’t like Harris’ defense at second base, so I’m worried that a Cabrera acquisition just pushes Harris out of the lineup and leaves a Cabrera-Punto/Casilla middle infield, which is a much more marginal upgrade.
I’d note that if Crede is out for an extended period of time, this isn’t as big a deal, because Cabrera would be replacing Punto instead of Harris, who would likely be the platoon starter at third.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Harri's D at second
Punto at second probably is better than Harris, Harris is so bad at D. We’ve just become so desensitized to having him in the lineup…
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Harris' Defense
sucks everywhere. He’s nothing but replacement level. Being the best middle infielder for the Twins is like being the smartest person in Mississippi.
How scary is it that people are anticipating the return of a 39 year old 2B that hasn’t played in a year?
by Milt on Tilt on Jul 24, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Harris isn't bad at 3B
But he’s substandard up the middle.
I'm not from Mississippi
but you don’t have to make a point at their expense…Read the Timbowolve blog about Rubio playing in MN ..some of these blogs are at MN expense..
Hopefully any trade for a middle infielder will allow the Twins to get rid of Punto or Casilla. Harris is doing a better job overall than the other 2. Lets hope the Twins do something!
dead line deals
I think in this case you also factor in a relief that the fron office is being aggressive. Also if we were to fix the 2 biggest wholes on the team I think this team could roll. I venture to say we could win an extra 5 or 6 games easy with Weurtz and Sanchez on the team. (no stats to back up my claim but Oakland has shown what can happen when you tinker with your team in the early 2000’s. They would be below 500 first third, make adjustments second third of season, then make it to playoffs in last third.)
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
Wuertz
So if e get Wuertz and Sanchez, things are super interesting again and we’re right in it, and hopefully it would impress Mauer. We’d have both Wuertz and Sanchez for next season too (along with a hopefully healthy Pat Neshek) and could be a hot team if our young starters could put any kind of consistency together.
Warning, Wuertz will be a hot and expensive commodity since he’s got another arbitration year left.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
That doesn't bother me.
He’s still a relief pitcher, which means it should be the cheapest of all expensive upgrades.
Is this a reasonable comparison?
When the Twins traded for Todd Jones in ‘01, it cost them Mark Redman, a decent young starter. That seemed like an overpay, though, so I don’t know what to think Wuertz would cost.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
That's true,
but it also has a lot to do with the circumstances at the time. To make an inter-division trade the Twins must have exhausted all other options, plus I’m not sure what the relief pitcher market was like back in ‘01. This season it seems like there are quite a few options out there, which would be in our favor I’d think.
And I’d agree that the Redman/Jones trade was an overpay.
RELATIVELY expensive
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Anyone think Wuertz looks a little bit like Will Ferrel?
Every time I’ve scrolled by his picture that’s who I think it is. Will Ferrel on the Twins is probably an upgrade from the magic shows Cuddyer puts on but I don’t think it will help them win the division.
I like the O-cab nickname, I think he would be an upgrade but not a huge one but I don’t want to see him and Casilla out there. I’d like the Twins to do all they can to keep Casilla and Punto out of the lineup.
I doubt they make any moves though.
When Wuertz was with the Cubs...
I remember him being pretty terrible. His ERA’s were usually decent, but he let a lot of inherited runners score and had a very difficult time finding the strike zone.
That being said, his numbers this year look good and the walk rate is way down, so I guess he’s worth taking a punt on. He is NOT an 8th inning guy, however…
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
When Wuertz was with the Cubs
there was only one season where he stranded fewer runners than the average pitcher, and that was in ’05, and it was just barely. Keeping in mind that “average” is stranding right around 70%:
2004: 74.9
2005: 69.9
2006: 84.4
2007: 78.6
2008: 70.2
2009: 74.2
I do agree with your point about the strike zone, though. Better this year, but those career numbers aren’t very good: 4.11 BB/9. He’s thrown a strike % each year of better than 62% since ‘05, but that hasn’t stopped him from walking guys. It sounds like he just goes through stretches where he struggles with his command. Not having seen him pitch, I’m not really sure. Only 47% of his pitches in his career have been in the strike zone, although I’m not sure where that falls compared to other relievers. For comparison, here are the % of pitches in the strike zone for Twins relievers (also career):
Nathan: 51.3
Guerrier: 61.8
Mijares: 56.4
Dickey: 57.4
Keppel: 56.3
Crain: 62.1
So here’s my ultimate conclusion on Wuertz: even though less than half of his pitches are thrown for strikes, his stuff is good enough that he gets a lot of guys to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone (38% swings outside of the strike zone this year, which is so much better than average it’s amazing), which is why his ball-to-strike ratio is actually as good as it is. When, on occasion, he gets teams who are willing to keep the bat on their shoulder when that knee-breaking slider comes across the plate, he gets in trouble and walks guys.
Oakland players who I wouldn't mind seeing the Twins trade for:
RP – Michael Wuertz
RP – Santiago Casilla
RP – Brad Ziegler
SP – Justin Duechscherer
2B – Mark Ellis
RP – Craig Breslow
funny.
I don’t think we are going to trade for Craig Breslow.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 24, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
anybody!!!!!!!
we need to address the starting staff first!!!!! we need a stopper. Blackburn has shown glimpses of being that but the last start begs to differ. Perkins for Washburn? This is a must in my eyes. Yes the bullpen needs to be addressed but with the lack of the starters being able to stretch the game into the 6th or 7th inning has really strained the bullpen all season. Also, please stop with all these ridiculous numbers as far as wuertz goes. He has shut people down all season and I would’nt expect anything else. He’s been lights out. You guys throw out all these boggling stat categories. It’s a game!!!! Stats don’t determine anything when it gets to the end of Sept. This guy has the heart of a lion and attacks the strike zone. The Twins just need to grow some balls and make moves to insure that they get into the playoffs without relying on some hack that has’nt played in a year or some callup that has the potential to help. We need some legit help that can do exactly that!!!! Lastly, middle infield. Sanchez? Perfect fit. The money won’t be a big deal if he helps get us to a WC. Am I wrong? He would be perfect in that bermuda triangle of a 2 spot.
by minnesota_tWINS on Jul 25, 2009 12:48 AM EDT reply actions
No stats guy myself,
but you dish yourself a big ol’ heaping of discredit when you follow up a rant against statistics being useful in helping to determine a player’s worth with a statement of sheer unbiased accumen* like:
This guy has the heart of a lion and attacks the strike zone.
*sarcasm.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 25, 2009 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
You make a good point
I’m glad someone besides me thinks that our starters have been overrated. Also, I agree with you that sometimes the people on this blog focus on too many obscure stats for my personal liking. All this stuff about UZR seems kind of foolish to me. All a person really needs to do is watch the game to see if someone knows how to play defense or not and whether their range is adequate. If you can’t explain how to figure out someone’s UZR, it is hard for me to accept it as a useful stat.
Sheldon
please stop and think about your point. Or minnesota_tWINS point.
Stats vs. “your own eyes” First of all, and most important, I have never seen any “statsheads” on this site say anything so stupid as “I don’t know why any of you bother to watch the games, to assess players, or understand the game, all you have to do is sit in your basement and crunch numbers off the internet.” But people like you and tWINS say that exactly in reverse.
Your desire to create a false dichotomy is foolish.
Do yourselves a favor and either learn how to enjoy both, or if you don’t want to take the time to learn about stats dont worry about them and allow others to use them to help them analyze the game and the talent IN ADDITION TO THEIR OWN EYES.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 26, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
If it seems foolish, it's possibly because you don't know what it means.
UZR, UZR/150, Zone Rating, Revised Zone Rating…these are all examples of defensive metrics. Defense is more difficult to quantify than offensive or pitching statistics, making it harder to evaluate players objectively. Which, really, is the whole reason we discuss personnel decisions. If we relied on our eyes, a lot of us might still think that Derek Jeter wasn’t one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball.
When talking about defense, there are a lot of things that are important. Speed, reaction time, mechanics, arm strength, arm accuracy…and while not all of these can be represented statistically, some of them are represented quite accurately.
The problem with relying on your eyes is that sometimes they lie to you. What you think you’re seeing isn’t always the whole truth. For example, Luis Rivas was usually a pretty good fielder…when he got to the ball. He had issues with range, which is one of the more difficult things to judge with your eyes.
In regards to UZR/150, which is one of the best defensive metrics for evaluating how many runs above or below average a defender is at his position. Is it done by an equation? Not like batting average. Essentially a baseball field is marked off into areas, and each player is judged seeing how many quadrants they make plays in. This is based off how the ball is hit as well: you expect a shortstop’s range on a ground ball to be larger than his range on a line drive. The more plays that are made, and converted into outs, the better his rating will be. This is used in the +/- system as well. UZR/150 makes its evaluation in terms of runs.
So Cabrera has cost his team about nine runs in the field this season, compared to an average shortstop.
If you don't understand that stats I use, or anyone else uses,
ask us what they mean. Nobody will have a problem addressing an issue like that. We’re all here to read, learn, share, talk about our favorite baseball team in general…and yeah, some of us who have been talking about these stats for a long time tend to rattle them off without a lot of explaination. But we will continue to use them, because they’re all part of the game…learning about it, from it, and trying to understand it.
T-shirt
Make this slogan on a t-shirt
Stats Matter
maybe it will sink in that stats are important. moreso then being a lion.
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
i agree with trading for relief help, but the Twins could easily swing a deal for Matt Caps and Freddy Sanchez all in one deal. The Twins have been known to be stingy in giving up prospects but how many of the prospects that the Twins deemed untouchable have turned into nothing? There have been many over the years for the Twins. They need to get a deal done they don’t have the team to win the division this year unless they get some help. Unlike most of the other years we don’t need a power bat we need a solid, contact hitting middle infielder. Denard Span isn’t even on pace to score 100 runs this season and it is due largely to the fact that the number 2 hitter in our lineup is hitting below .200. Our lineup would be more dynamic with a hitter like cabrera or sanchez hitting 2nd moving mauer back and getting more men on base for the american league leader in home runs and rbis to drive in even more runs! GO TWINS!!!
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