Twins Trade Rumors: Orlando Cabrera
by Jesse on Jul 25, 2009 8:16 PM EDT
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PrintLooking past 2009.
It's old news by now, but here's what Ron Gardenhire had to say about Athletic's shorstop Orlando Cabrera:
"I'm not allowed to talk about players, but yes I like Cabrera. It's a direct question. I can answer a direct question. I think he's a great player."
Not that this is anything new, but managers do have a certain pull when it comes to which players a front office is going to target at this time of year. Under normal circumstances I'd say that acquiring a guy like Cabrera shouldn't be too expensive of an ordeal in terms of prospects: he's old for a middle infielder, he doesn't hit particularly well and his defense at short has been borderline miserable according to his UZR/150. But looking at his projected Elias ranking, Cabrera currently classifies as a Type-A free agent.
This means we need to consider a couple of different things:
- Should the Twins choose to acquire Cabrera, their compensation to the A's would have to be strong enough to off-set the two picks they'd get in the off-season, would Cabrera decline arbitration and sign elsewhere. There's no guarantee it would happen that way, but at this point the Twins would be required to pay like it would happen.
- Cabrera is known for strong second halves. So, he's likely to actually be a Type-A at the end of 2009. So there would be the possibility of the Twins picking up some compensation draft picks this winter.
- None of the above actually changes what kind of guy Cabrera has been this year for his body of work: a light-hitting, under-achieving shortstop.
That Type-A status is a big thing, and it gives the Twins both reasons to pursue him (the potential draft picks and the strong second half) and reasons to be wary (compensation and who he could be based on this season and age, not his history).
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Well...
This comes from the same guy who thinks that Punto is the second coming of Ozzie Smith… Cabrera has lower OPS+ and UZR/150 than Harris at SS this year. I like the 2 draft picks but Cabrera does not add anything to this team at this point.
Cabrera
Gardy didn’t say he wanted to trade for him..he just didn’t want to say anything bad about the guy. but why would be trade down?
There's also the possibility that Cabrera accepts arbitration...
from the Twins after the year and we’re stuck overpaying for an old, replacement-level player without receiving draft pick compensation. This seems quite plausible to me, as his play has fallen off a cliff this year and everyone knows it (except, apparently, Gardenhire and perhaps the Twins FO), so Cabrera very likely stands to make more at the end of the year in arbitration than from testing free agency.
It looks like a high risk/low reward type of scenario. Offense and defense combined, he’s now worse than Harris and probably not even an upgrade over Punto. If this were the pre-2009 Cabrera, it would be a different story, but his offense, defense and speed have really taken a hit this year (check out his FanGraphs page to see for yourself).
Under the terms of OC's contract..........
the A’s are forbidden from offering him salary arbitration once he becomes a free agent. I would assume this would hold true for any team that would acquire him in a trade.
Yeah, I didn't realize this when I posted directly above
I’m unsure if this clause in his contract will carry over if he is traded to another team. Also, I’m pretty sure this means that the A’s (or perhaps whichever team he is traded to) will be prevented from receiving draft pick compensation if he leaves, as the previous team is prohibited from offering arbitration.
Correction
The A’s are forbidden to offer him Salary Arbitration if he is a Type A Free Agent.
Don't believe in yourself.
Believe in Me who believes in You.
This is an interesting facet...
…changes a lot of variables, actually. Thanks for the info, both of you.
I think he is an improvement...
over anyone we have. If we do indeed come down to another playoff puch like we have so often, I would much rather have the proven veteran presence over Harris or Punto. Cabrera is known for strong second halves, so he REALLY is an improvement. Also, if we could also bring Wuertz or Ziegler over with him, it certainly would make it worth it! I would offer Young, Revere, and Duensing for Cabrera and Ziegler/Wuertz. Maybe thats too much, but I think we can still do something this year. Then try to trade Mulvey+ for Washburn. Might as well try for this year as well. Not like anybody in those trades would screw us over for the future!
In the case of Delmon
he could very well screw us…if we kept him!
by Adam Peterson on Jul 26, 2009 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Here's Cabrera's career splits (via BaseballReference)
He’s just barely better in the second half:
Pre-All Star Break – 98 OPS+
Post-All Star Break – 102 OPS+
He does have a career 110 OPS+ in September/October, FWIW (I’m inclined to think it’s mostly random variance/statistical noise).
Actually, that stat is tOPS+, though the point still stands
So it is weighted to the players’ career OPS+. That is, a 100 tOPS+ in one month signifies that a player performs at his career average during that month. So Cabrera hits 2% better than his usual line after the All-Star Break.
Nope
I actually dont think we should be picking up any players for this year. We are sellers IMO. I dont know what our record is vs. the likely playoff teams (NY, BOS, TB, LAA), but I am sure it isnt pretty. We just dont have the starting pitching or relief pitching to compete. We could make a couple of moves, but I just dont see the Twins doing anything that would help them advance in the playoffs. Unfortunately, even as sellers, we dont have much to sell. Crede was the best chip, but now his health is in question. Maybe Cuddyer would bring back something decent.
by guinness junky on Jul 26, 2009 12:24 AM EDT reply actions
Haven't any of you guys heard the old MLB managers' drinking song?
Apparently not, so I’ll do you a favor and recite a verse. Legend has it this ditty was “written” by a handful of old drunk MLB managers around WWI:
“Piss in my whiskey,
Spray me with mace,
Throw a hedgehog
in my face,
Oh, throw a hedgehog in my face…
But please dont trade all my prospects,
When my team is in third place!"
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 26, 2009 1:57 AM EDT reply actions
Not Cabrera
We need a 2B/SS solution beyond this season. This is why I’d much rather make a real run at Freddy Sanchez than trade for Cabrera for one year. Cabrera would be an upgrade over our current 2B combo (assuming Harris would move to 2B and Casilla would go back to AAA). I’d also look long and hard at giving Tolleson a chance if we’re out of it in September.
Type A or Type B
Right now Cabrera is a Type A borderline. With a decent 2nd half he likely still would be a type A and therefore bring no prospects because of his out clause. I believe it goes off of 2 years performance correct? So there would be a slight chance the guys below him like Beltre, Chone Figgins, Blanco, or Cano could put together a spectacular enough 2nd half to pass him and thus make him a type B. However I doubt it. I think the Twins can assume they won’t get any picks for Cabrera at the end of the year. However, that might make him cheap to acquire. If he only takes marginal prospects I’d be ok with it. However like I said above I’d rather see us get a guy we can keep for a year or two if Cabrera costs us anybody good.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
i read A's wont ask for any top prospects
but more 2nd tier/fringe mlb guys like a plouffe, hughes, mulvey, etc.
gardenhire seemed very complimetary to OC and twins seem wanting to fill a middle infield need
where?
If that’s the case then I say go ahead. He’s better than what we have out there and maybe he’d drop to a type B and get us a sandwich pick.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
To get that pick we'd have to offer him arbitration, AND THEN he'd have to decline it.
For a guy who turns 36 next season, if I were him, I wouldn’t be turning down what amounts to a guaranteed paycheck. I don’t want O-Cab I’m afraid.
Cabrera would be a great fit for my beloved Twins! He would add a hot bat to the number two hole in the lineup, provide more runs on offense, a steady defender in the field, a leader, and according to joe crede and gardy a hard working ss. The Twins can afford the price for him so why not pull the trigger. It could become the second coming of the Shannon Stewart trade and propel us to another division crown!
I admit I'm a bit of a pessimist, but "hot bat"? More runs?
O-Cab is hitting .276/.313/.366 … that average is not “hot” and an OPS of .679 is not really much of a run producer. Besides we are getting virtually the same production out of Harris and we don’t have to trade away prospects for Harris: .263 /.306/ .373 , OPS: .679.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 26, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Make it part of the deal for Cabrera....
So that when at the end of the season when the Twins want to let OC go, Cabrera has to decline the arbitration. Can they make that part of the terms in the Cabrera trade? If the Twins have to offer arbitration to get a compensation pick, then make it so Cabrera has to decline.
I’m a genius.
no, they can't do that. At least not without Cabrera signing a new contract.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 27, 2009 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
According to Cot’s Contracts, the “club can’t offer arbitration” clause only applies if he’s a Type A free agent – as far as I can tell, they could offer him arbitration and try to get a sandwich pick if he’s a Type B.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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