Poll / Discussion Topic: You in, or you out?
by Jon Marthaler on Jul 27, 2009 7:15 AM EDT
in Speculation
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PrintThere's only one discussion topic that makes any kind of sense today - you in, or are you out? Selling or buying? Bullish or bearish?
The Twins are 49-50 this morning, but within a series sweep of both Detroit and Chicago. They've not been able to get more than 3-4 games above .500, but conversely, they've not fallen more than 3-4 games under that mark, either. And they have ten more games with the Tigers and nine more (starting tonight) with the White Sox.
They've got two hitters having absolutely extraordinary seasons, and you hate to waste performances like those. Conversely, though, you wonder if they don't have too many holes to plug. They're an unmitigated disaster at second base; the team's production at that position (.186 with a .506 OPS) is worse than every position at every team in the American League, save for the Royals' awful shortstops, and the Twins' defense at that position hasn't been very good either. Come to mention shortstop, Minnesota could use some help there, too. And they need one, maybe two more bullpen arms, and possibly another starter or even two.
To plug all of those holes will be expensive - not only in terms of salary, likely, but also in terms of prospects given up. Twins fans have been justifiably proud of some of the minor-league talent they've pried from other teams in the past few years; they could well be on the other end of the stick, trade-wise, if they give up too much to attempt to make a run.
Despite their protestations, they're a solidly average team, hovering right around .500. They need help to contend - but can they get enough help to actually make a run, and will the risk be worth what they'd have to give up?
And so we come to our question. Every time I post a poll, there's always at least a few comments popping up from people who refuse to choose for one reason or another. I don't see how that's possible this time around; either you think it's time to try to make a run, or you think it's best to wait for another year.
Are you in, or are you out?
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my preference would be...
…that they do make a deal, but one that ties into their long term plans, not mortgage the future. I believe they need to plug at least three holes (short relief, #1 starter and middle infielder). My preference/hope is that they complete a trade to fix one of them now with a player who will be here for several years. Then fix the other two this winter.
Sorta what Roger said
Get a guy with a year or two left on the deal. Sends the right signal to the team this year and is good for future years.
By the way, Jason Kubel is slugging .570. .570!! He’s having an amazing year too.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Not good enough this year to do anything too crazy
I’d still like to see them as buyers, however, because if they can get a guy like Sanchez they may be able to solve their problems at that position by resigning him. I also think this team needs a spark of some kind and making a deal for someone who can help this team now should boost this team’s spirits, which is never a bad thing.
Have to agree with all of the above.
A smart trade now that shows signs of attempting to improve this year and next and then get aggressive in free agency. At the time of this poll, there are still a lot of upcoming free agents at 2b/3b.
But there is no way we can fill all of the holes, so lets please dont try. So, for instance, best to worst one of the following: Sanchez; Wuertz (or a Toronto RP); Washburn.
Any one of those guys provides an increase over what we have. In this division that may be all we need, and won’t put us in a hole for the next two to four years even if they don’t pan out at all.
by montanatwinsfan on Jul 27, 2009 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you
I don’t think the Twins need to make a really big move (e.g. Halladay), but I wouldn’t mind something smaller. I am still not convinced a move is necessary (the White Sox series this week could change my mind, I guess), but I am guessing that even a small move to say “We’re buyers!” would be good for both team morale and public relations – there’s a lot of “The Twins never do anything to get better!” sentiment around.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
now or never
major league players of the caliber that we have in the top half of the order don’t get that good without a strong, strong competitive streak. if we think we can hang onto mauer and morneau without giving them the the pieces to have at least a shot we’re crazy.
it’s not just whether this team is good enough to do it now, it’s that if we don’t make some moves to attempt it now .500 will look really nice when the players who are good enough to even warrant this discussion decide to give up on this franchise and go where they have a chance to win a world series – and we end up with an entire team of nick puntos and matt redmans. even if we aren’t good enough this year, the future is a good enough reason to go for it now.
This is important
I agree that this is an important piece in making a move. That’s why a player like Snachez or Wuertz would help this yer and next, and plug major holes.
They team isn’t so great, but it’s still only 4 games out in a mediocre division. I’m far less optimistic than I was a few days ago, not necause we lost the games on the west coast, but because it seems our starting staff is starting to lose more members to injury (The Slowey situation is a serious problem). Still, our 2B have been so bad, even an average player would be a couple win difference from just here until the end of the season, which would keep us at least close, please our superstars in the middle of the lineup, and plug the biggest hole for next year.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
What we need is a Shannon Stewart type trade.
Go get a guy who would fit into the clubhouse that will want to resign here. Basically, if it’s a deal that they would make in the offseason, then do it. Don’t mortage the next 4 years for a shot with a team that’s below .500 at the moment.
Some help here: When the Cardinals won with a team right around .500, did they make a move at the deadline?
"You should enter a ballpark like you enter a church." - Bill "Spaceman" Lee
Cardinals-2006 at the deadline
Hector Luna to the Indians for Ron Belliard
Rich Scarlamandre (AAA) to the Braves for Jorge Sosa
I’m not against shifting resources around to improve the team’s overall balance, but “betting the farm” is very rarely done anymore.
And the “now or never” attitude is a bit perplexing. 2007 had that feeling because Santana & Hunter would likely be gone after that year and they actually dumped talent (Castillo) during that trading deadline.
There’s no pending losses in the coming offseason that I’m aware of. And putting all your eggs in a sub-.500 basket doesn’t feel like a good strategy.
I would bet something, just not the farm
This team has a lot of upside, but I think it’s three or four players away from being a team that can win it all. Here is what it needs:
- An ace. At times this year, a guy like Blackburn, Baker, or Slowey has stepped up for a handful of starts in a row. But none of them can sustain that for the long haul. So the team is prone to losing streaks.
- A set-up man: The bullpen is much improved, but it still lacks that closer understudy to take the eighth inning consistently.
- A middle infielder: This one has been beaten to death. The Twins have the worst middle infield tandem in the game in Punto and Casilla. It is no exaggeration to say it is the worst middle infield tandem in team history. How they expect to win it all with these two is beyond me.
These will be needs next year as well (though with Neshek coming back, not as much in the bullpen). So whatever we get, it should not be a two- or three-month rental. It should be for at least next year as well. If we think of it that way, we’re not building just for this year.
It’s a tall order to suggest that we can get all three, without betting the farm, And betting the farm is too risky because what if to do that and Mauer gets hurt (God forbid)? I’m confident we can get the middle infielder. I think we will have to make do with our starters and hope they continue to develop. I hope we can get the arm we need for the bullpen. But I’m not as optimistic about that one.
The possible fourth player is a third baseman, depending on Crede’s health. In that case, Valencia is a worthy replacement for this year and beyond. He should be off limits in any trade. Beyond him, there aren’t a lot of untouchables on the farm. And it’s pretty deep system. So we should be able to do something in the next few days.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
agree mostly
Even though our middle IF situation is horrible, it makes little sense to significantly upgrade there, hoping for a pennant run this year, unless we go and get a big-time starting pitcher. We can go and get Sanchez but it will matter little if we continue with the staff we have now, assuming Slowey is out for the year. And even with Slowey, I don’t think we have enough in the starting rotation.
So I would say our top need is a #1-2 type starting pitcher. If we can get that, we should go for a guy like Sanchez to play 2B. And both being signed for next year is a plus plus.
Our third need is then another bullpen arm. Guerrier has firmly established himself as a quality setup guy this year. We don’t really need to go big-time here. Just get someone who can help out in the 6th and the 7th.
Possible 4th player to me is if we could go steal some cheap LF from someone, and then go with an OF of NewGuy-Span-Cuddyer.
Also, all this Orlando Cabrera talk is typical Twins middle of the road silliness. Making a move to just make a move. We already have an OC on our roster and his name is Brendan Harris who is producing at equal to, and you can even argue slightly better than, OC.
by ajmargarine on Jul 27, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Id rather get a cheap CF so we don’t ruin our outfield defense. Or, just leave Gomez there since he’s been better lately.
Id ideally love to get Chad Qualls in the bullpen but that probably wont happen.
Middle infield? no idea. Sanchez probably but who knows what they want for him.
www.twinkietalk.com
Agree with everything you said
I heard a funny/sad comment about Alexei Casilla while watching a little of Sunday’s game. In the third inning when Casilla walked, Dick Bremer said that was the equivalent of walking the pitcher. He is right, though there are many pitchers who actually hit quite a bit better than Casilla. That comment pretty much sums up why we desperately need a 2nd baseman immediately.
Tony Pena Jr.
How’s Casilla’s arm? Maybe the Twins need to send him back to the minors to be a pitcher, a la Tony Pena Jr., since he already hits like one.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
only players we can control for multiple years
It’s just like everyone else has said. Unless we can get a guy like Orlando Cabrera cheap then there’s no point to anyone else.
The biggest question to me is if we’re sellers, who do we sell?
Cuddy?, Kubel?, Crede? only if he somehow proves his health this week.
Then there’s the comments coming from Morneau about Mauer not wanting to resign if the Twins don’t make some sort of move. It makes me think that trading for a guy like Sanchez could be the key to getting Mauer to stay in MN. Hell, if Cabrera would help Mauer and Morneau feel like the Twins are a good organization to stay with then hell yes the Twins should go get him. Neither of these guys are too outspoken but we’re hearing murmurs and there is good reason for it.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
I concur
You don’t rent a player for 2009 but buying a player for 09-10 plus makes sense. That’s probably not a bullpen arm, more of a middle infielder.
Infield looks decent for free agents:
Marco Scutaro
Jack Wilson
Mark DeRosa
Akinori Iwamura (club option unlikely to be exercised)
Orlando Hudson
Felipe Lopez
Orlando Cabrera
Miguel Tejada (probably a 3B now)
There’s some decent guys who might take a 2 year contract.
Morales
Can he still play second base? Why not let him try? Then when Mauer needs a day off or DH he can slide behind the plate and fill in.
if they won’t play Harris at 2B because they don’t like him there, and if they move Tolleson at AAA away from 2B (despite that being our hugest need at MLB) because they don’t like him at 2B anymore for some reason, there’s little hope they’d throw Morales in at 2B just because he might have played there in the past
by ajmargarine on Jul 27, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Morales hasn't played at second base in years.
It’s a bad idea at this point, like playing Cuddyer at third…or second, for that matter.
Well, nobody wants a rental
and I too would love to come up with a longer term solution to any of the problems, though I’m somewhat less concerned about the rotation than some. Plus, a rental will not be very expensive, presumably, so why not?
Here’s my real question, though, (and Jon, here’s where I complain about your poll—you knew it was coming): what future, exactly, would the Twins be mortgaging?
I love young players; I’m always on the side of giving prospects chances. However, the Twins simply do not have any 5-star prospects right now. Maybe there’s guys in the system who will emerge as real above average major leaguers, but there really aren’t any “untouchables”. I doubt the Twins will have anyone in, for example, the BA top 20 prospects after the season. And I think that’s right. They have a lot of guys who will probably have major league careers, and I don’t belittle that—there’s value there. But there isn’t anyone, really, that I would view as untouchable in terms of their talent.
I would like to see them do something now to show a little chutzpah. I’m frustrated with the front office for last off-season. And the fact is, waiting has a drawback. As much as we just assume we’ll get the same production from Mauer and Morneau next year, the truth is, we probably won’t. Kubel too. Those three, combined, are having a monster season. It’s already been partly wasted. Don’t waste it all.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 27, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions
Let's say, for example...
That Oakland or Toronto or Pittsburgh is willing to part with a bullpen arm and an infielder… but only if the Twins include Danny Valencia in the deal. Valencia is supposed to be the 3B solution we haven’t had since Koskie, and if he’s gone, then we’re stuck filling gaps with Harris/Buscher for another few years (or hoping that we manage to get somebody else to play there).
Or let’s say that somebody demands Ben Revere, or Aaron Hicks, or some other blue-chip prospect. Traditionally the Twins haven’t dealt those types of players. Would you deal them this time around, just to try to make a difference?
by Jon Marthaler on Jul 27, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
It depends on who
you are getting. I wouldn’t trade Valencia (maybe the hardest guy in the Twins minors for me to trade) for Cabrera. I don’t know, I would maybe do it for Sanchez. But the point is this: I’m not suggesting making reckless or stupid trades just to do something. I’m saying don’t hoard. I’m saying, I love prospects, but let’s not overvalue them.
If you are trading Valencia or Revere, presumably it’s for someone still under team control for a while. At least 2 or 3 years. Depending on that player, I’m OK with that, if it also helps now. Winning is a pretty good thing. I would like my team to do more of it.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 27, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
honestly
We’re discussing whether the Twins make a deal to help their team before the deadline? Historically the Twins cry no money and look through other teams garage sales even though they have raised ticket prices by 50% over the last two seasons. The fans voted for their new stadium the least they could do is try to field a winning team, a team that can compete in the league and not just for a weak division. I won’t blame guys like Mauer and Morneau if they choose to look elsewhere for a team that is committed to winning, not just making money.
I agree
we can talk all we want on ways to make the team better for this year and be a buyer. Or how to make the team better in the future by being sellers now. And all these big moves and such.
But I think we all know the chances of us doing something dramatic this week are very slim. And I think it’s going to take “dramatic” for us to contend this year.
I will be very surprised if we don’t make a minor move (like Cabrera, definitely minor there). So, we can say ‘We tried, at least we did something’.
Cabrera will probably be a Type A free agent, so that’s good. Wouldn’t help us this year but definitely would for the future.
www.twinkietalk.com
Nope
There’s a clause in his contract stipulating that he can’t be offered arbitration if he qualifies as a Type A free agent.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Plus we would have to offer him arbitration to get draft picks
even if he’s a Type B. And he just might take us up on the offer. I think the whole draft pick hope is a pipe dream aspect of acquiring Cabrera.
Prospect swap
The Twins have too many holes to plug for this year, or even to make them a dominant looking team next year. So, I don’t think the Twins should trade for anyone that is part of a short term plan.
I think the Twins should look for young players or prospects that teams would be willing to swap for other young players or prospects. Ideally these would be players still pre-arb eligible, or AA/AAA prospects. Someone like Escobar (brewers or braves, really), comes to mind, but I’m no prospect expert. Essentially, I think the Twins should look for 2B and SS as top priority, 3B and relief pitching as secondary. We should be offering up (in equal or lessor value), our low level prospects (Revere, Hicks, A. Morales, Guttierez), or our high level pitchers (Perkins, Mulvey, Duensing, etc.).
For instance, trading someone like Hicks for a top notch, near MLB ready middle infielder, would seem like a smart deal to me, and one that some teams might be willing to consider.
Bonds???
How about put Kubel in Right, Bonds at DH and send Delmon to whomever will give us a coach who speaks in a manner that Casilla actually understands (perhaps one with his own sledgehammer). Then trade for Sanchez up the middle. I can live with one light hitting middle infielder but two is unwatchable. And watching Delmon prance around out there in left is pathetic. The man can’t track fly balls, throw, position himself well for throws, etc.. We’d have been better off if Delmon had hit the buffet lines with Mijares last winter and perhaps he might reach double digits in HRs as the DH with a Cecil Fielder like physique.
We have guys we could live without over the long term …Gomez…Young…Harris…Liriano…Slowey… How about those 5 for Hallday throw in a couple of minor leaguers to boot??
The time is now
We have been watching a recurring cycle over the last several years. A very good group of core players surrounded by some of the worst full-time players in the league. This team has been 1-3 players away, yet the management never pulls the trigger, always hiding behind the “long term view”. Well, now it’s time to pay the bill. The 4J’s are all in their prime and having fantastic years, the division contenders are not overwhelmingly strong.
Trade for Sanchez, no-one else wants to take on his salary and they could probably land him for a couple of mid-level prospects — Hughes and Guerra maybe? The Twins have been shedding salary the last couple of years AND can afford to overpay for a decent middle infielder.
Then go to Oakland and figure out what it will take to land both Wuertz and Duchscherer. Wuertz fills the setup role and Duch can be support the bullpen while building arm strength to be a September star as a starter, allowing Perkins to move into the 2nd lefty role in the pen. No ones talking about Duchscherer, but he’s a FA after the year, only making a little over 3 million and just coming back from injury. He could be found gold. I imagine you could land both for Parmalee — I know, one of the few power hitters in the system, but where is he going to play here? Morneau has 1B blocked and Parmalee isn’t going to cut it in the OF. He’s type of guy Beane loves – good power, good eye, not very athletic, and the kind of guy Gardnehire seems to hate, so even if he makes the roster in a couple years will rot on the bench.
What is frustrating as a fan is that we wouldn’t need to have this discussion if Smith had gotten off his kiester this off season and spent a couple million to land a guy like Wuertz. Our bullpen was awful the 2nd 1/2 of 2008 and we started this year with essentially the same guys…. now we’re supposed to be surprised when it still sucks?
As long as I’m GM for the day. I tell the manager to bench the waste of space D.Young and install Gomez as the regular CF. He won’t hit much, but at least he can chase the balls down in the OF and save a few runs that way.
After reading everyone's posts
I’m now of the opinion that it doesn’t matter who is on the farm. I want to see Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel win a WS and I’d like to see the Twins do what they can to try and make this happen.
You just never know what is going to happen with prospects and so I can’t put their worth over a chance for a title. As it is, I think the farm is starting to become thin enough that we can’t hope the next crop will catch lightning in a bottle. I think this team is our best shot (this year and next)
I really wanted to enjoy seeing a WS title with Dougie baseball and Koskie, then one with Hunter and Santana but I bought the line that the next batch will be just as good or better and they will have a better chance. Well, I don’t buy that the next batch will better anymore.
I don’t want the Twins to make moves just so they did something. I want them to make moves that help this team win this year and next (at least). The question is will the front office be smart enough to know what those moves are?
Slowey
and now slowey is probably out for the season? the holes keep growing. going to need some pretty big patches.
new prospect blog
go to www.diamondreport.wordpress.com. it is a decent new blog on minor league and draft prospects
Sometimes
I think we wait too long to call up some players. I wish Valencia was already up. Instead we have Buscher rotting away.
Favorite Comedians: Mike Birbiglia, Doug Benson, Daniel Tosh, Delmon Young in Left Field.
Let's Do It
I think the Twins should go All-In this season. All of their big hitters are having great years and I think they are just a few players away from being a solid contender. I actually blogged this morning about a crazy “What-if” scenario and what the roster would look like if the front office were to go out and get some help.
I don’t see how we can be “not good enough”. If we still had Santana I bet the poll would be skewed more towards “Yes”. You know what that means? I think we need an ace again….
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