Bench Joe Mauer
by snolls on Jul 30, 2009 9:44 AM EDT
18 comments
Bench Joe Mauer. That's right, I said it. The guy is hitting .260/.315/.420 since the all-star break. Sure, "small sample size" some people might say (especially me). Or, "no worries, he was bound to regress toward the mean, after mainting an OBP near .550 for so long", and "OPS of .735 is still fine for a catcher".
Hogwash! His legs are hurting. Evidence here:
2009 monthly splits:
April: N/A. In fact, he didn't even start working out really until April. That means that February and March, normally busy months of getting in shape, crouching while working with pitchers, running, lots of swings, wasn't really happening until early - mid april.
May: .414 / .500 / .838 , 11 HR- yeah, pretty freakishly good. Sure, there might have been some luck involved, (ok, lots), but fresh legs are good for a ball player.
June: .353 / .407 / .490 , 3 HR - still very good, especially from a catcher. Still, the drop off in power makes him much less valuable, and a .407 OBP is great, but not elite, when you consider that there are 17 MLB players over .400 for the season, and 24 over .390. A lot of those players hit for significantly more power than Joe Mauer.
July: .289 / .356 / .422 , 3 HR - Decent production, from a catcher, but not what we talk about when we say that Joe Mauer is one of the best hitters in the game.
Career monthly splits:
March / April: .328 / .416 / .439
May: .361 / . 439 / .554
June: .323 / .392 / .515
July: .308 / .395 / .456
Aug: .299 / .391 / .419
Sept: .313 / .386 / .431
Notice that the OBP has a general, slight downward trend (possibly not statistically significant), but the first half v second have SLG is a significant difference.
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My argument is that though a lot of the statistical drop off this year is sample size related, in order to get the most out of him going into the playoffs, we need to keep his legs fresh. Especially to keep some power in his stroke. While it is great to have a guy that can get on base at a .386 clip in september who plays catcher, it would be worth a lot to up his slugging another 70-100 points.
This year, it seems to me that Gardy played him a lot more games in May / June then he normally would have, probably to try to get him qualified for the batting title. This might be contributing to his relatively weak play, for Mauer that is, lately. I say play him in the field a day a week, DH 2 or 3 per week, and PH the rest for the next 3 weeks or so. Tell him in advance, so that he can rest and lift weights appropriately. See if that doesn't help him stay fresh into late August and September. It will hurt to lose him for the 10 or so games that he sits, but the downgrade will be made up when a stronger Mauer comes back.
Also, for those who were arguing that he is "really a .380 type of hitter", or whatever the argument that he's the type that has a good chance at hitting .400 this year, I want say that this is what happens when you are dealing with a random process (see previous, somewhat heated arguments about credibility). Numbers fluctuate, and unusual observations are just that, unusual.
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Interesting idea
I don’t think I’d go as far as you’re suggesting (which would require bringing up Morales, not that I’m totally opposed to that), but I would be in favor of sitting him a bit more often without DH-ing him.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jul 30, 2009 10:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree here...
When he was white hot in May/June, we were playing him much more frequently than we did in previous seasons. He’s already DH-ed 15 times this season which is nearing his career high of 18 despite that fact that its still July and he missed the first month.
They know his endurance better than me, but keeping him fresh seems in the team’s best interest.
Of course, it could very well be that missing April will help him later in the season and this month’s ho-hum performance is just a random fluctuation.
by DavidRF on Jul 30, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You convinced me that it was all random
So I’m not buying your evidence.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jul 30, 2009 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
We aren’t even going to make the playoffs if we bench him as often as you think we should. I will concede, though, that at some point he is going to have to change positions because you are probably right about the toll of catching every day dropping his numbers down as the season wears on.
by Sheldon on Jul 30, 2009 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not necessarily
The Twins were a .500 team in April sans Mauer. And if it is actually the case that the difference between July Mauer and May Mauer is really the difference between Tired Mauer and Fresh Mauer, then giving him some more rest might make the team better overall.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jul 30, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Holy cow I can't even believe we are discussing this.
Maybe we should bench Morneau too since he had a bad series against the Pale Hose.
by Sheldon on Jul 30, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We kind of agree, I think
I don’t think we should bench him as often as snolls is proposing – I believe his suggestion is to sit him for basically all of a two week stretch in the hope that leaves him fresh enough to play every day after that. My proposal was basically to DH him less, giving him an extra day off every week or so. I don’t think that is such a ridiculous idea, assuming that fatigue is actually part of the problem right now (which, as cmath pointed out below, may not be the case).
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Jul 30, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Inflammatory, yes
But I really do think they need to dial it down more. The point is that I think Mauer is a great catcher, but he’s a phenomenal hitter too, and even his historical playing time has led to a statistical decline as the year progresses. I think the Twins should be, over the course of the entire year, playing him less than they have each year. I’m thinking he never catches more than 4 games in a week, but DHs a lot. And, now that he has played so much this year, to get him back to an elite level, I suspect he needs an extended break. Maybe I exaggerate some, but I really do think that playing 3-4 games a week, some of them at DH is the right decision right now. There are 8 weeks left in the year. Downgrading to Redmond for 10 games over the next 2-3 weeks is worth it, if it upgrades Mauer for the other 40 games left.
by snolls on Jul 31, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mauer has been playing more lately
But usually he doesn’t catch day games after night games. I just think our defense suffers without Mauer and even if he is not hitting particularly well, he still draws quite a few walks. Redmond shouldn’t be playing more than once a week at this stage of his career, and we don’t have anyone in the minor leagues who has been in a pennant race before. We don’t need to baby Mauer; he’ll come around.
by Sheldon on Jul 31, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so
So you think that he was a better hitter then than he is now? That he discovered his power stroke, and he has now lost it?
by snolls on Jul 30, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He hasn't lost anything
He’s just facing better pitching that consistently throws to his weak spot in the zone—down and in. He’ll make the adjustment and start driving that ball, but it takes time. That’s why slumps happen. Anybody who throws that fastball down and away will pay for it, though.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jul 30, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bench? Mauer? Heresy!
Seriously, He’s the best catcher in the MLB! Other teams would consider it a gift if he only played once a week. Give him a day off here and there but let him play.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jul 30, 2009 8:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I had at first thought this was a joke
Now I realize the poster is serious. Wow. This is almost unfathomable. Apart from being far and away the best catcher in the league, even in a slump he’s the best catcher on the team by a mile.
And the stupidity of focusing on a catcher’s offensive stats without even looking at defense throws his credibility out the window. The alternative—Mike Redmond— can’t even play three days in a row without totally sucking. When Mauer was hurt, Redmond wasn’t even the starter—Jose Morales was. So you would consume another roster spot to call up Morales to catch? Or would you “option” Mauer to AAA?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jul 30, 2009 9:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good points, especially on the defensive side
I think Morales threw out one runner earlier this season and Redmond has still not thrown out anyone. If Mauer is not catching, other teams can steal bases all night long.
by Sheldon on Jul 31, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just cuz it won't, doesn't mean it shouldn't
The argument I’m making isn’t that Mauer is bad, or even less then great. The argument is that Mauer will play EVEN BETTER if healthier, and that his total production to the team will be higher if he gets more rest.
This isn’t Mauer bashing, this is trying to save Mauer, and get a .350 hitting catcher in for most of the year, instead of a .300 hitting catcher (which is still great), for all of the rest of the year.
Caution: Those numbers aren’t meant to be specific or accurate. Just explain the idea of my argument. If I told you he’d hit 60 hits the rest of the year, regardless of whether he played 30 or 50 games, then I think you’d recognize that you should sit him for 20 games, and get some hits out of Redmond.
by snolls on Jul 31, 2009 11:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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