Gaaaaah!

by dwintheiser on Jul 8, 2009 10:58 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

Guys, I don't think I can handle it anymore -- the undeserved love for Carlos Gomez, and the undeserved hate for Delmon Young.

Nothing personal against cmath, but his recap of last night's Yankee game pretty much served as the straw that broke my back. Gomez was listed as a 'stud' for:

- robbing Alex Rodriguez of a grand slam that prevented the Twins from losing 14-2, because that would have been so much more psychologically damaging than the 10-2 loss they actually suffered,

- almost preventing a ball from getting past him for a triple, and

- going 0-for-3 while seeing fewer pitches from CC Sebathia than any other Twins starter (see
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290707109)

Meanwhile, Delmon Young gets tagged as a 'dud' for:

- being one of four Twin hitters to actually get a hit off of Sebathia,

- seeing more of Sebathia's pitches than Mauer or Morneau, and in fact more per at-bat than any other Twin in the lineup (see the score link above)

Here's a couple of numbers to ponder: .270 and .276. The latter number is Carlos Gomez's on-base percentage. The former is Delmon Young's batting average. I realize that in this enlightened age we're supposed to discount batting average as a poor tool, but when your batting average is within single digits of someone else's on-base percentage, I think that's significant.

Here's a classic TwinsGeek Player A/Player B:

A - .316/912, 6 XBH (4 2B, 2 HR), 6 RBI

B - .270/714, 3 XBH (2 2B, 1 HR), 4 RBI

Player B is Joe Mauer, in 74 plate appearances dating back to June 17. Player A is Delmon Young, in 39 plate appearances dating back to June 17.

Small sample size? Sure. Has Delmon been sucking lately? Not on your life. Heck, if Jason Kubel had been hitting that well since June 17 (he's hitting .264/775 with 5 RBI and 7 XBH in 58 PAs), we'd be seeing a return of the 'Free Jason Kubel' booster club, I have no doubt.

I mean, come on, guys -- does nobody else see that Carlos Gomez is the poorest fundamental player that's ever taken up a spot on a Ron Gardenhire roster? His throws home that go halfway up the line allowing the batter to advance an extra base, his swinging for the fences any time the guy in front of him manages an extra-base hit?

Anybody?

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I’ll tell you why people don’t like delmon. The twins have a unique chemistry as a team a bunch of good likeable guys the only guy that doesn’t seem to fit is delmon young. He seems mopey and unhappy most of the time.

"If at first you don't succeed - Skydiving isn't for you"

by Zoxide on Jul 8, 2009 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

what are you watching

Yeah, when he’s on the field he’s got the unemotional baseball face that everyone else has. But, Delmon smiles alot. He’s often seen smiling and patting guys on the back in the dugout, and it looks like geniune happiness. That’s the thing that keeps me in his corner.

by ajmargarine on Jul 9, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

In my defense, Gomez was the center fielder who saved at least three runs. Young was the DH who produced zero runs. In this game, Gomez had a bigger impact.

Beyond this game, when people say they’d rather see Gomez than Young, it’s typically because they really like Gomez’s defense. He saves more runs with his defense than Young produces with his bat, and the numbers bear that out. So your argument about offense doesn’t hold water.

Young was not the only guy who swung at pitches out of the zone. But in his first at bat, he swung at three pitches just above the dirt and outside and walked back to the dugout. It was one of his worst at bats of the season, and that’s saying something. On Sunday, he had a good game. He took pitches in his first and second at bats that set up the pitcher to groove a first pitch fastball in his third at bat, which he hit hard. That’s the kind of approach we’ve been looking for all year from him.

He’s been better lately, which we have acknowledged. But he needs to be more consistent. Because we know what he’s capable of if he has his head in the game, it’s especially disappointing to see him just mail in an at bat early in the game, when the Twins were still in the game. There’s nothing wrong with calling a spade a spade and saying he had a really bad at bat there. Not that Gomez doesn’t have bad at bats, but at least he contributes with his glove. And at least he’s trying.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 9, 2009 12:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

WAR (according to FanGraphs.com)

Currently
Gomez -0.3
Young -1.2

Totals (over their short careers)
Gomez batting: -32.1; Gomez fielding: 22.8
Young batting: -13.3; Young fielding: -27.8

Neither good; Gomez better.

by montanatwinsfan on Jul 9, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

here here

Imho, there is way too much irrational love for Gomez on this board. I think we need to move beyond the Gomez vs. Young debate and realize that short of major adjustments, neither will be a part of the Twins’ future plans.

Almost all of Gomez’s strengths are due to his freakish athletic ability…I don’t think he even runs very good routes in center. If anything, this board should be collectively grinding their teeth over the way he is wasting his five tools through his obstinance. Can anyone say Corey Patterson with a lower obp?

by wcooley on Jul 9, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Delmon have a poor start last year, too?

I’m wondering if Delmon’s another of those “start crappy and heat up during the season” guys, like a Cuddyer who takes two months to figure out how to hit instead of just one. He was decent offensively (not for a corner OF, but maybe for a center fielder or third baseman) the last half of last season, too.

Of course, “he only is the worst player in Major League Baseball for a third of the season; after that he’s decent” is damning with extremely faint praise, but I’m wondering if his future might be brighter than we’ve thought for the last few months, at least – I don’t cringe when I hear his name on the radio anymore, so that’s a start.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 9, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Both futures are bright

Delmon’s might be brighter than Gomez. But Gomez has higher upside. We are all very frustrated with their struggles considering their tools. But both were rushed to the majors and we are paying for that now. Whether that stunts their growth long term is an open question.

As to my irrational love for Gomez: I’m as fascinated by his freakish talent as anything. We haven’t had anybody with his talent in my memory. The closest was Torii, but he never had Gomez’s speed. If he ever learns to harness it and play under control, he could be great. If Delmon ever harnesses his talent, he’ll be good. Watching Delmon and Gomez is like watching minor leaguers. You focus on upside as much as actual performance. Unfortunately, we have expectations for major league performance from a couple of minor leaguers.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 9, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is Delmon's future really that bright?

Delmon’s problem is that he’s hamstrung by being, at age 23, already a guy who should probably be a DH defensively. As a regular outfielder he has just too much of a value drain. Now, guys who DH (guys who get basically no positive or negative defensive value) or LFs who are pretty or really bad (like, say, Jason Bay or Adam Dunn) can still manage positive value if they can hit upwards of a .900 OPS consistently. Look at Jason Kubel, for instance. I think all or most of us can agree that he’s having about as good of an offensive season as we could’ve projected for him. Playing in the field a little has hurt his value a little (I wish he’d never have to play the field) but he’s still a 1.2 wins above replacement player. Not anywhere near Joe Mauer, but a solidly positive contributor. And that’s with an OPS around .900 for the season.

My question is, is there anything in Delmon’s track record at this point that makes you think he’s capable of ever sustaining an OPS at .900 for a whole season? Or anything close to that? He’s never been a particularly good hitter above AA, and he’s got over 1600 PAs in the majors at this point with a .728 OPS.

Some Delmon apologists will rest on that argument about being a “slow starter”, and every year they will point to Delmon hitting better over the last 3-4 months and act like he’s “finally” turning it around or something. That’s fine; I’d certainly be happy in the context of this season if Delmon can put up an OPS of, say, .800 or greater and contribute offensively to Twins victories in the second half. The problem is that, if he really is a slow starter, those two/three months will still always count. They will always drag down and mitigate his value, just like his ineptitude over the first two/three months didn’t contribute positively to Twins victories. That puts the Twins in a deeper hole as a team just like it puts Delmon’s value in a deeper hole.

Reality is that Delmon is certainly not a sub-.700 OPS hitter like he’s’ been this year so far. The flip side of that coin is, he’s never actually shown the ability to be better than a .750 OPS major league hitter, and as a bad corner OF/DH player, you can’t do that offensively and be a positive contributor. If Delmon ever gets to the point where he can hit like Jason Kubel, then he’d at least be a positive contributor (although I imagine that’s nowhere near the “bright future” all those scouts and baseball people dreamed up for him six years ago), but if he’s really a “slow starter” like this every year, he’ll have to hit like Jason Kubel in the second half just to get back to around his .750 OPS, and that’s just never going to be enough on balance.

by DK on Jul 10, 2009 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is there anything in Delmon’s track record at this point that makes you think he’s capable of ever sustaining an OPS at .900 for a whole season?

Yes. He twice had an OPS over .900 in the minors, when he was very young for his leagues—as an 18 year old in the Sally league and as a 19 year old in the Southern League. But the Rays rushed him and he experienced some success, again for his age. Yet, he doesn’t have some of the basics under his belt. If he ever learns those basics, he could get his career back on track.

As to his defense, he was an above average right fielder before joining the Twins, who inexplicably have stuck him in left and kept him there. He’s starting to show signs of being able to track a ball that slices the other way. But it’s clearly a work in progress. Nothing in his makeup says he can’t become an average left fielder defensively.

I’m not a Delmon apologist. If the Twins could trade him now as part of a deal that lands Freddy Sanchez, I’d do it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks out at age 24 and 25 and becomes a good corner outfielder. I wouldn’t bet on him becoming an all-star. But he should have a better career than Cuddyer.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 10, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And another thing

I don’t know how the fancy advanced stats guys calculate their razors and such, but from watching almost every inning of Twins baseball this season, I think DY has improved greatly in the field this year. And I watch him closely especially because of his rep of being totally awful in LF.

Every time there’s a play in his area that he doesn’t make, I ask if Span could have made that play. There’s been very few plays in the last few months that Span would have made that Delmon didn’t, 1-2 probably.

by ajmargarine on Jul 9, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree about one thing

Young vs. Gomez is a false dichotomy. Gomez should be in the minors, and an aging vet on a one-year contract should be starting.

Want to know the difference between the Twins and the Yankees? Would they settle for either of these guys as a starting outfielder? Or Matt Tolbert or Nick Punto as a starting infielder?

Okay, that’s not the only difference. Their goal is to have the best player they can get at every position. But they insist on at least having a good player — and that the Twins could emulate

by by jiminy on Jul 10, 2009 6:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not that easy

If you can get the top free agent at every position, it’s a lot easier. The free agent ranks are thin. Guys in the Twins price range are not often good players. The good ones, like Torii, price themselves out of the market.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 10, 2009 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes...

Clearly the big difference is the Yankees can afford to spend more money than anyone else, so they get the top players. But sometimes when the Twins are gunning in on the division lead, and they have so many players playing really well, it’s hard to tell where they stand against the Yankees. Sometimes I think, the Twins are as good as anyone! They could beat the Yankees! Like when they finish with the league’s top record in the second half or something. And sometimes I think, it’s like they’re not even in the same league. I have big mood swings. So sometimes I reality check by asking, position for position, who on the Twins could start for the Yankees?

Right now we’re better at catcher and tied at first base, and that’s about it. And Wang’s collapse opens up a spot for one Twin in their rotation — but if he’s right, maybe not even that. (Remember Wang was recently a Cy Young candidate.) Nathan would be their setup man. And that’s it. It’s sobering. Doesn’t mean we couldn’t beat them in the playoffs. It would just be nice to actually do it sometime.

Not being better than a Yankee doesn’t mean you’re not good enough to win the World Series. Plenty of room to still be good, even great. But then there’s another test question: Would this guy even make the Yankees team as a bench player? I usually think most of the Twins starters could do that. But a lot are borderline. And Tolbert or Casilla or Henn? Can you honestly imagine those guys in Yankee pinstripes? It’s just kind of sad to see minor leaguers of no real distinction playing so many innings for a playoff contender.

Perhaps I’m being unrealistic though. Even the Yankees have to start minor league pitchers when their starters get injured. Cody Ransom isn’t that different from Nick Punto, really. (though he wasn’t just signed to start for two years!)

I still feel in my gut that the Twins could win any game they play against the Yankees. But boy, it would be nice if they actually did now and then.

by by jiminy on Jul 10, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gomez, what happened to his arm?

The first time I saw Gomez play was last year in ST when he threw out Dustin Pedroia at the plate on a ground single to CF. It was a laser throw, right on the money.

Since then, in every game I’ve watched, I have never seen Gomez make a good throw on a runner. Not once. I know that he has a good arm, but for crissakes, he squeezes every throw he makes. How many assists does he even have?

by Old Twins Cap on Jul 10, 2009 12:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's just bad

>>As to his defense, he was an above average right fielder before joining the Twins, who inexplicably have stuck him in left

There’s nothing inexplicable about it, and he was way below average as a right fielder. He was a better rightfielder in Tampa than he’s been a leftfielder in Minnesota, but he’s been below average in both roles.

But it doesn’t matter. He’s played 200 straight big-league games in left when he’s been in the field, and it’s not that big a deal to make the adjustment if you have any ability. You can watch Skates and see his play would be any better in right than left. He’d be a DH if he could hit.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Jul 11, 2009 1:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs