Off Day Poll: Can the M&M boys still win MVP?
by Jon Marthaler on Aug 10, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
in Speculation
Email
PrintThings aren't looking good for the Twins as a whole right now. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, however, are having extraordinary years. Mauer is battling with Ichiro for the batting title and leads the league in OPS; Morneau has a chance to win both the HR and RBI titles.
So here's today's poll question. Even if the Twins end up finishing in third place, can Mauer or Morneau still win the MVP this year?
48 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
If they make the playoffs, yes. If they finish third, I don’t see how either of them walks away with the award. Same thing last season. If Morneau did better in the last week and the Twins went to the playoffs, he would have won it.
by Twins Territory on Aug 10, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions
Yes from me
If I voted, I’d vote on the basis of who performed the best over the course of the season.
A lot of writers prefer the horse-race aspect though.
If you're not a winner ...
How can you be the most valuable player? To me, there is a difference between a most valuable player and the one with the best stats. I realize the M & M boys don’t have the supporting cast of many of the other candidates, but let’s be real. The MVP should go to the best player on one of the best teams.
So because you're an awesome player stuck on a crappy team, you should never be recognized for your hard work?
That is ridiculous.
What are we at the park for except to win? I'd trip my mother. I'd help her up, brush her off, tell her I'm sorry. But mother don't make it to third. -Leo Durocher
+1
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 10, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Please Explain
If you’re not a winner …
How can you be the most valuable player?
Well, you could, say, put up the best on-base percentage and slugging average in the entire league while playing Gold Glove defense at a key defensive position. I’d say that’s pretty valuable, even if the starting rotation continues to suck and the Twins miss the playoffs.
To me, there is a difference between a most valuable player and the one with the best stats.
Assuming that “best stats” means “best baseball performance” (so we don’t have to argue about using a statistical formula or something like that), how are they different? Isn’t being really good at baseball the single most valuable thing a baseball player can do, or should he be poisoning the other team’s Gatorade or something to help the team get more wins in spite of their lousing pitching staff? Lawrence Taylor supposedly use to send hookers to his opponents’ hotel rooms the night before games, although I don’t know if that factored into his MVP selection.
The MVP should go to the best player on one of the best teams.
No, it should go to the player who was most valuable, hence the name “Most Valuable Player”.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I, for one, agree
but part of the fun of the MVP award is arguing over the definition of “valuable.” Picking the player with the highest WAR or whatever isn’t nearly as interesting.
Stats aren't everything
Although I understand your argument, I believe you have overlooked a couple things. First, people perform differently when they are faced with pressure. From a mental standpoint, it’s a lot easier to put up big stats when you’re not facing the pressure of being in a pennant race. The RBI’s, runs scored, walks drawn, etc. should be meaningful. Right now with all due respect to the M & M boys, many of their stats have been wasted. That’s not their fault, but the point is that other players (ex. Texiera) have been getting big hits and putting up big numbers to help their team win. There are many players (not just Mauer and Morneau) who can put up big numbers. The question then becomes: Who is leading their team to victory?
I am not expecting you to change your mind. Your stance is certainly valid. I just happen to disagree with it a little and wanted to let you know my rationale for that.
Best player on one of the best teams is awfully ambiguous.
sometimes that works, and I think quite a few people agreewith that formula but I think it should start with the best numbers, then factor in the intangibles of team leadership, “best” teams, impact that player had on the team’s ability to be successful.
Problem with pure numbers alone, or “best” player on “one of the best teams” is that baseball is a hybrid of team and individual sports. It certainly is a team sport because no one person can play – or win- the game by her/himself. Not to mention aspects (though rare) of actual team based play; pitcher-catcher, turning double plays, etc… It is also paradoxically a very individual sport. No one helps you bat in any significant way, no one helps you catch a ball, or run the bases etc… As many people far more poetically inclined than myself have noted baseball is a hybrid that takes individual moments of time and performance and weaves them together to create a team sport.
Therefore, the MVP vote has to consider both individual merit and the individual’s impact on the team.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 10, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions
anyway, my answer is no.
should it be possible? of course those two are good enough this year that they should be in the running even if the team finishes 3rd, but realistically, a third place performance will turn off a lot of voters.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 10, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
They can, but it will be a lot harder for them if the Twins are in 3rd
Pujols won the NL MVP last year despite the Cardinals finishing 4th in their division (but they still had an 86-76 record). So it can be done. But Pujols has been so good that’s he often seems like he’s in a league of his own, and as good as the M&M boys have been, they haven’t reached quite the same level in performance or in reputation. It’s probably more of a reputation thing – they haven’t been doing all that much worse than Pujols, but I don’t feel like either has quite the same national reputation as Pujols does.
So while I think it’s possible that either Mauer or Morneau could still get an MVP award, I don’t think it’s likely if the Twins don’t win the division.
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Aug 10, 2009 3:09 PM EDT reply actions
They'll split votes
That’s why neither one of them will win the award. I think Mauer will outpoll Morneau for the first time.
agreed
the combination of twins fans being unable to form a consensus on who is our own team’s MVP + our lack of big city/bright lights/big fanbase +our being in 3d place in a weak division = a mauer/morny MVP win is unlikely. but i don’t think our 3d place finish is the black and white reason they won’t win. i’m of the mind that if we only had one of them performing the way they are this season, that guy would have better odds regardless of our position in the AL central. the “not being on a winning team” factor seems to loom larger when there are two great players on your team. it’s easy enough to say that one guy can’t do it alone, but harder to say two of the best players in baseball can’t do it alone. it’s true, but harder to say when you have other options to vote for at MVP on teams that ARE winning their division.
The Vote
I believe the MVP should go to the “Fab Five” Baker, Laraino, Perkins, Slowly and Blackburn.
fab five for mvp
they are probably the most valuable players on both the white sox and tigers at the moment.
Like Montana said, it should be possible... but it won't happen.
This discussion comes down to your definition of the MVP award. Either you think of it as a player who is most valuable to his team (without this player, where would his team be?) or the player with the best stats.
The voters have obviously voted for the player with the best stats in the past, despite the word “valuable” in the award title. Ignoring that, though, both Mauer and Morneau should both have a chance anyway. Mauer is one of the best at the plate in the history of baseball, and his newly-found power only makes him better. Morneau is having another awesome season as well.
That said, there is no way the MVP comes from a team finishing third place in their division, unless that division is the very strong AL East. Without either Mauer or Morneau the Twins would be below the level of the Indians and Royals… possibly nearing San Diego levels… but they won’t get recognized for that because the Twins aren’t good this year and are sliding under the radar.
Should Mauer and Morneau be considered for the MVP? Yes, and some voters will agree with me. Will Mauer or Morneau win the MVP? Not a chance.
Viking Vigil - The 2nd greatest Vikings community on the internet!
http://www.vikingvigil.com
Twins Fix
http://www.twinsfix.com
The problem is, there is not enough consensus on what "MVP" means
I think the MLB should have two position player awards and two pitching awards:
*MVP should be for the position player with the highest VORP or WARP or some such stat. This should just be a stat and not depend on voting
*Player of the Year should be the award that recognizes the most important position player contribution to winning. This will require a vote from some body of writers
*Cy Young should stay the same, except they should give explicit guidance that devalues wins and losses, but is also subject to a vote.
*Fireman of the Year should stay the same—simply the guy with the most saves.
If we define it this way, Mauer is the MVP with Morneau a close second. If the Twins win, Morneau would be a candidate for Player of the Year with Mauer a close second.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Might have to change to a stat based system soon
There won’t be any sportswriters left to vote!
Rather than VORP/WARP, use a metric that incorporates defensive value
in addition to positional adjustments, such as wins above replacement. This would properly adjust Morneau’s relative value downward compared to Mauer (who has really always been the only true MVP candidate on this team, including in 2006).
by DK on Aug 10, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
you’re right, WARP is different from VORP (I tend to lump them together because I don’t trust their lack of transparency, like all of BP’s metrics). You can see if you look at the WARP leaderboard that Mauer has always been much more valuable than Morneau.
by DK on Aug 10, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I always thought that conditioning MVP votes on team performance
was a bad idea. In baseball, one player simply cannot raise a bad team to greatness, the game is too reliant on multiple individuals.
However, it’s clear that in recent years, the voters have fixated on team performance, but in an even more perverse way. You have to be on a good team—but not too good.
2006 was a classic example. I said at the time that Morneau was a bad choice—really Jeter or Mauer should have won. Morneau had the RBI, and the Twins made the mad, late charge to win. The argument against Jeter that year was: well, the Yankees are so good they would have won without him.
That struck me as an argument leading almost to nullity. You have to be on a good team, but not a great team. It seemed to limit the pool so extremely that it just didn’t make sense.
I made the argument in 2006, right here on this very website, that Morneau’s season was essentially the same as Paul Konerko’s season (and it was). Konerko finished 22nd in the voting. My point was: OK, give Morneau some credit for the team….but that much credit? Actually giving him the award? Many people told me to shut up. Stop being a jerk.
Now, we are in the opposite situation; we have a guy (Mauer) who probably should win the award (though there is some season left). But might not because of team results. Many, many Twins fans argued that the the team’s performance justified Morneau’s award. Unfortunately, you can’t have it both ways.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 10, 2009 6:04 PM EDT reply actions
However, I'll respond to myself
and say that I think Mauer could actually win anyway. If he finishes first in all 3 slash stats, as a catcher, it will be pretty hard to deny him.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 10, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
well
they have denied Bert the Hall of Fame despite his numbers over the course of his career!!!
They can deny Mauer the MVP since it is only one season…
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Check the stats again (since I know everyone here loves stats)
Morneau hit 21 more home runs than Mauer, had virtually the same amount of doubles, scored 11 more runs than Mauer, had a higher slugging percentage, and drove in almost 50 more runs. The only stat Mauer was ahead of Morneau on was OBP. I think Morneau was clearly the MVP, but that’s just my opinion, and I know many people on this blog dislike my opinions.
Morneau plays 1B, Mauer plays C
Mauer was way ahead on the “defensive contribution” and “value above position” stats. It’s fairly easy to find a first baseman who can hit 20 bombs and field his position.
Sheldon
you are correct. People on this blog take Morneau for granted, but how bout we take Morneau out of the picture for a second and slot in Dougy. With Mauer and without Morneau, the Twins NEVER go to the playoffs…With Morneau and without Mauer, the Twins NEVER go to the playoffs. Those two players work off each other so well! People on this blog are taking Morneau for granted and that is really annoying me!
They speak so highly of Mauer (nicknamed The Baby Jesus) and are so concerned about him leaving us. Well, what if Morneau should leave the Twins? Sure, a big todo would be made about it, but nothing compared to Mauer. People think that Morneau is replaceable but not Mauer. I really want to tell them that if Mauer leaves, we have probably the best catching talent, aside from Matt Wieters, in our minor league system: Wilson Ramos! Who is in our minor league system that can replace Morneau?: NOBODY! Wilson Ramos can replace Mauer…maybe not be quite as good as Mauer, but still, Ramos is a very very good player. Nobody can replace Morneau unless we go outside the system and power hitting 1B who get on base a lot, are not for sale!
That one spring training when Mauer and Morneau switched gloves and positions (Mauer – 1B, Morneau – C), they both really sucked…except Morneau didnt quite suck as much because he originally was a catcher. But they grew to understand the difficulty of each others position and they respect each other since they are both premiere fielders at their positions. I am a 1B and I realize how difficult it is to play catcher, but there is absolutely nothing degrading about 1B over catcher. 1B is a very hard position to play and people just do not realize that and they point to the defensive spectrum when they get into an argument with me about it. Well, those people and the people who came up with the defensive spectrum, have never played 1B and do not realize the difficulty of everything involved for a 1B. In my opinion, being, not just playing, 1B is much harder than any other position in the field besides catcher.
Morneau was the clear choice of MVP that year, and I cannot stand that Twins fans, none the less the rest of the baseball world, thought it should have been, not only Mauer, but JETER? over Morneau. Sorry about my rant but I had to get it out of my system. I am agreeing with you and though sometimes I question your opinions, I never, per-say, disagree with them. It is good to argue about your opinions because then people have the opportunity to learn more. I think I can say with reasonable confidence that montanatwinsfan is the only one on this blog that dislikes my opinions. But I for one, although we may disagree on some points, enjoy reading what you have to say and enjoy “arguing” with you about your opinions but I do not dislike your opinions by any means!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Nobody takes Morneau for granted
As for worrying about who might leave, the reason people are worried about Mauer is that he can become an FA after 2010. Morneau already got locked up through 2013.
Mauer is probably more “beloved” because he’s local, but everyone knows Morneau is good. Mauer is also a more rare talent.
I disagree with you about both Morneau’s defensive prowess and the value of that prowess as compared to catcher. You can argue for the importance of first base all you want, I don’t have to agree. Players move TO first base from other positions, not to other positions from first base.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 11, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Two lists
First basemen who are reasonably comparable to Justin Morneau:
Albert Pujols
Mark Teixeira
Prince Fielder
Miguel Cabrera
Todd Helton
Kevin Youkilis
Adrian Gonzalez
Catchers who are reasonably comparable to Joe Mauer:
Also, to address this:
1B is a very hard position to play and people just do not realize that and they point to the defensive spectrum when they get into an argument with me about it. Well, those people and the people who came up with the defensive spectrum, have never played 1B and do not realize the difficulty of everything involved for a 1B. In my opinion, being, not just playing, 1B is much harder than any other position in the field besides catcher.
Like Eric said, players move to first base when they aren’t good enough fielders to play anywhere else, not the other way around – in the National League, it’s where you put a guy who would play DH in the American League (e.g. Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard).
I played lots of first base in youth baseball and slow-pitch softball, and my experience is the opposite of yours – as long as you can competently catch a ball (which every major leaguer can do), it’s easily the least-demanding position on the field. You don’t have as much area to cover as middle infielders or outfielders, you don’t get as many hard-hit balls as third basemen, and you virtually never have to throw any appreciable distance. A good-fielding first baseman is a useful thing to have, certainly, but first basemen make few enough difficult plays that it takes a truly elite fielder (a Mientkiewicz type) to add all that much value with his defense.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I agree on Mauer vs. Morneau
But first base is a lot harder at the major league level than amateur ball for two main reasons:
- Pick-off plays: I’m pretty sure the pitchers you played with didn’t throw 90 MPH from 50 feet away
- More left-handed batters: You say fewer hard-hit balls come your way at first than thir, and perhaps that is true, but left-handed batters hit the bal hard to the right side and there are more of them in the majors
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I thought about that a little
Pickoff plays do suck, although I’d contend that the worst part is dealing with the runner sliding into your way, not just the hard throw (at the major league level, many shortstops have similarly-strong arms, and pitchers don’t always throw full-speed fastballs to first). On the flip side, though, holding the runner actually makes the first baseman’s job easier when a ball is put in play, because he’s not expected to be able to cover as much ground to field the ball, and he doesn’t have as far to move to cover the base.
As for the issue of more lefties leading to more hard-hit balls, that’s also true, but there are also still more righties than lefties on virtually every team (the Twins are a notable exception).
I probably couldn’t play first base competently at the major league level – I’m not all that experienced at handling throws of that speed, and I’m sure my footwork would be terrible. That doesn’t change the fact that, comparatively, it’s the easiest position on the diamond, and virtually any player who’s played enough baseball to make it to the majors would likely be able to step in and play the position poorly but adequately. There’s a reason David Ortiz owns a first baseman’s glove, after all.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Not buying it
I’m sure major league first basemen do a lot of things in the field, like catch a pick-off throw, us normal schmucks would find nigh impossible. But if you can’t handle a pick-off throw, you have no business being a professional baseball player. I know there’s an art to playing first base and a lot of first baseman are actually very graceful and all that crap, but the fact is, first base is where you hide your worst defender at the ML level (guess where Adam Dunn and Miguel Cabrera are now playing!). Morneau would be a whole heck of a lot more valuable if he weren’t (relatively) so slow and clumsy and weak-armed and could play a different infield position.
Catchers who are reasonably comparable to Joe Mauer:
If you are talking about offensively, there is no other catcher (aside from Victor Martinez) that even comes close to Mauer and his bat.
Defensively however, things change:
Yadier Molina is possibly the best defensive catcher in the game! Mauer makes bad choices and bad throws occasionally. Yadier, or all the Molina brothers for that matter, never make those bad decisions. Also, Y. Molina handles his pitching staff so much better than Mauer handles his…if you need an example, look at the Cardinals staff vs the Twins staff! Also, look at the Dodgers catcher in Russell Martin.
So, no the list of great catchers is larger than 0. The list of the great defensive catchers is even better.
Great Offensive Catchers:
Victor Martinez
Mike Napoli
Matt Wieters (still early but that kid is special)
Jorge Posada (getting older and slowing down but should never be taken for granted)
Jesus Flores (good overall)
Great Defensive Catchers:
Molina Brothers (Yadier, Jose, Bengie)
Russell Martin
Brian Schneider
Brian McCann
So, no, Mauer is not alone in his category. He may be the best catcher in the American league and probably the best overall catcher (though I think that Wieters is going to take him over), but Mauer certainly is not the best defensive catcher.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
So to simplify...
catchers who are as good as Mauer right now:
Brian McCann (well, not quite, but almost)
Victor Martinez (almost, if he could actually play catcher half the time)
Jorge Posada (almost, if this were 2007)
Mike Napoli (almost, no wait his defense is terrible)
Yadier Molina (if he could hit, like, at all)
Matt Wieters (maybe in a few years)
First Baseman who are as good as Morneau right now:
Kevin Youkilis
Albert Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Mark Teixeira
Miguel Cabrera
Kendry Morales (almost)
Derrek Lee (almost)
Carlos Pena (almost)
Russell Branyan (almost)
Lance Berkman (almost)
Ryan Howard (almost)
Joey Votto (almost)
Todd Helton (almost)
by Mike I on Aug 12, 2009 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'll give you Pujols and Teixera
The other players either put up significantly lower offensive numbers or are not as good defensively (Fielder and Cabrera most notably).
Youkilis
He’s better than Morneau defensively and has a better OPS (although a lower OPS+ because Fenway is a hitter’s park).
Anyway, that doesn’t change the basic point – there are multiple first basemen that are superior to Morneau in both offense and defense, and lots who are comparable, while there are zero catchers that are even in Mauer’s neighborhood in combined offense and defense.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
There's a reason the Twins have one of the best fielding percentages
And I believe that reason is Morneau. The first baseman is responsible for saving his teammates from making errors on low throws or errant pickoff attempts and Morneau is marvelous at that.
I had a feeling you'd bring up the "scoops" argument
Twins fans in general seem to think that Morneau is like a John Olerud or a Keith Hernandez out there digging an incredible number of throws out of the dirt. UZR (which shows Morneau as a generally mediocre defender) doesn’t calculate a first baseman’s “scooping” ability, so there’s perhaps a reason to believe he’s a bit underrated in this metric.
Indeed, what stats I can find show Morneau to be quite good at “scooping,” not best-in-the game, but well above average http://actasports.com/sow.php?id=220. However, there was an interesting post at http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-basemen-scoops this past winter estimating the value of “scooping” ability in first basemen. The article’s real long, but if you scroll to the bottom, you’d see that this ability isn’t that valuable on the whole. The difference between the best and worst scoopers is worth at most 10 runs per year. The difference between the best and worst fielding fielding first baseman in terms of their range and error-avoiding abilitiy, however, is worth more than 30 runs per year.
So, even if we assume that Morneau is fantastic at digging throws out of the dirt, that still probably brings him up to only a slightly above-average fielder at his position.
As for saving runs on pickoff attempts, I can’t imagine that making much of a difference at all over the course of a year (maybe a few runs).
Cabrera's actually been decent at first
And Fielder’s having a better offensive year than Morneau. (And as I’ve said before, the numbers show Morneau as just average defensively at 1B.)
Point is, only Pujols stands head and shoulders above Morneau at 1B. You can split hairs debating whether Youkilis, Teixeira, Fielder, Cabrera, Gonzalez is better, equal, or worse than Morneau, but the point stands that there are 6 or so 1B who are just about as good as Morneau. However, McCann is the only catcher who even comes close to Mauer.
Let me bring up another point
Mauer always needs a day off every 3 or 4 days due to the demanding nature of his position. That means he has to DH or (God forbid) not play at all. When he DH’s that either takes Kubel completely out of the lineup or forces him to play the outfield where we all know his range is limited. Therefore, I could make the argument that this enhances Morneau’s value even more because you can count on him to play his position every day whereas you can’t count on Mauer to catch every day.
True
That’s part of why advanced stats like VORP are counting stats (like RBI) instead of rate stats (like batting average) – they do try to account for plate appearances. Where Mauer picks up his big advantage there is that those stats also account for the average hitting prowess of players at those positions.
AL catchers have an AVG/OBP/SLG of .257/.317/.410, while AL first basemen hit .271/.353/.488. To put that in perspective, the average catcher hits about like Brendan Harris, while the average first baseman hits about like Michael Cuddyer. That’s not a trivial difference, and that’s why a good-hitting catcher is so much more valuable than a good-hitting first baseman, even though the first baseman puts in more time at his position – a good-hitting catcher is virtually impossible to find, especially one who isn’t a Piazza-style butcher with the glove.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
You're really seriously overrating Wilson Ramos
I doubt any of the professionals who follow prospects (e.g., Keith Law, John Sickels, Kevin Goldstein, Baseball America folks) would rate Ramos as even the 10th best catching prospect in baseball (Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, Jason Castro, Tyler Flowers, Derek Norris, Austin Romine, Angel Salome, and Max Ramirez would rate ahead). He’s a top 5 prospect with the Twins, sure, but the Twins have one of the worst minor league systems in baseball right now.
I know he’s a couple years from the majors and he’s expected to improve and develop a little, but his .308/.326/.444 line at AA translates to .254/.265/.352 at the major league level. If Mauer leaves, you’re left with at best probably league average production out of the catcher’s spot for a while.
they're both too good
if only one was having that good of a year, i say whoever it was could win MVP, however, they might take too many votes away from each other.
But….
being on a team that will likely finish around .500 usually isn’t good for MVP, however, without one or both, they would likely have far fewer wins.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Twinkie Town
Related FanShots on Twinkie Town
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- 10 notable team reps for MLB’s upcoming draft
- Rays’ gladiator helmets: Fernando Rodney, Joel Peralta do as Romans do (VIDEO)
- Rickie Weeks forgets number of outs, passes up chance for inning-ending double play (VIDEO)
- David Ortiz is angry that more people don’t see him as a leader of the Red Sox
- Reds fan catches two home runs in same inning — and then gives both balls away
