On the mound, everybody done gone backwards
by Jon Marthaler on Aug 10, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
26 comments
The Twins entered the season with a young, somewhat inexperienced - but potentially very good - starting rotation. The hope seemed to be that those five pitchers - Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Glen Perkins - would mature and turn into a staff to be reckoned with (and all for cheap, too!)
As Carl Pavano could tell you, things haven't exactly gone according to plan.
A few ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching numbers, just for comparison:
| 2008 | 2009 | |||
| ERA | FIP | ERA | FIP | |
| Scott Baker | 3.45 | 3.85 | 4.59 | 4.20 |
| Francisco Liriano | 3.91 | 3.93 | 5.63 | 4.90 |
| Nick Blackburn | 4.05 | 4.44 | 3.79 | 4.28 |
| Kevin Slowey | 3.99 | 3.98 | 4.86 | 4.32 |
| Glen Perkins | 4.41 | 5.24 | 5.89 | 4.76 |
What those numbers indicate: Blackburn's improved slightly, Baker and Slowey have gone backwards, Perkins was never very good to begin with, and Liriano's so far backwards that he can't even be said to still be in the race.
That young, cheap, good staff? Well, two out of three isn't bad.
Unfortunately, the third is what the Twins really need this year - and with two-thirds of the season gone, it would take a major turnaround to get it.
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Slowey's numbers are misleading...
…I recall watching Kevin’s start in St. Louis a few weeks before he went on the DL. His ERA was briefly under 4.00 early in the game. But it was clear that Kevin couldn’t pitch like he normally does (this was before the team admitted he was having a problem). To be fair to Kevin, you need to look at what his ERA and other numbers were several starts before he was shut down.
That's true.
And at least Baker has been heading in the right direction over the last couple of months, too. Hopefully he’s back on the wagon the next time he steps out.
Pavano's FIP: 4.17
So at least he’s moving in the right direction, too. Swarzak’s is 4.67, which is about right considering the extreme nature of his results.
Blackburn has been an absolute stud this year. He was huge for a massive stretch when the Twins needed him to be. I hope he can continue that the rest of the season. The biggest boost would obviously be if Liriano could get his s**t together and start pitching like he’s capable of pitching.
Those numbers also indirectly tell us how bad our defense has been this year
Twins defense, 2009: -21.7 UZR, 25th in the league
Twins defense, 2008: -17.3 UZR, 19th in the league
Help me out here
I thought our defense was supposed to be really good this year. Crede, Punto, and Morneau are all excellent fielding infielders. Mauer is the best in the business. Gomez and Span are above average defensively and Cuddyer has decent, though not great, range in the outfield. Who is dragging us down?
Punto's been bad defensively this year, about average at short recently...
Span has great range, but his arm isn’t ideal for a center fielder. Cuddyer’s just the opposite—great arm, but the range.
The primary culprits are Harris, Young, Kubel, Casilla, Buscher. The only truly plus defenders on the team are Gomez, Mauer, Span (in left field only), Morneau (in spite of his UZR numbers), and Crede. There’s lots of issues with range in particular.
+1
Casilla’s been the worst second baseman in the league by a long shot.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Well, for one, Mauer's defensive skills don't add toward UZR...
since it’s hard to quantify much of the catcher’s defensive skill, and few batted balls are handled by the catcher anyways.
Check out the 2009 Twins’ stats yourself, if you like: http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Twins&pos=all&stats=fld&qual=0&type=0&season=2009&month=0
Crede is very good, as was covered here recently. Gomez has also been good defensively in CF, and Span’s been good in the corners. However, those two aren’t in the field together everyday. Cuddyer and Young are pretty bad in the corners, and Span has been below average when forced to play CF.
Casilla, Tolbert, and Harris have all been pretty bad at 2B. Punto, who for his career has been quite excellent in the infield, is putting up rather average UZR numbers this year (it wouldn’t be too surprising to see his skills decline at age 31).
Including this year, Morneau has put up very average UZR numbers since 2006 (he had a monster defensive year in 2005, though). However, a lot of Twins fans proclaim Morneau’s greatest strength lies in his scooping ability, which UZR does not attempt to measure. However, Morneau’s scooping ability would reflect positively in the other infielders’ UZR numbers (there’s also reason to believe “scooping” ability isn’t terribly important – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-basemen-scoops)
The UZR metric isn’t perfect, of course (and I’d be curious to see Dewan’s +/- ratings this year). The big fault with UZR is that it doesn’t work particularly well with small sample sizes, but we have a very large sample size with data for an entire team playing 2/3 of a season.
Dont forget the defensively challenged Kubel
Cuddyer and Young are pretty bad in the corners, and Span has been below average when forced to play CF.
Kubel and Young are poor defenders in left. Cuddyer is below average range in right.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 10, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
MLBtraderumors.com 2010 free agent pitchers:
Starting pitchers
Brandon Backe (32)
Miguel Batista (39)
Josh Beckett (30) – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Erik Bedard (31)
Kris Benson (34)
Daniel Cabrera (29)
Chris Capuano (31)
Bartolo Colon (37)
Jose Contreras (38)
Doug Davis (34)
Justin Duchscherer (32)
Adam Eaton (32)
Shawn Estes (37)
Josh Fogg (33)
Freddy Garcia (34)
Jon Garland (30) – $10MM mutual option with $2.5MM or $1MM buyout
Tom Glavine (44)
Mike Hampton (37)
Rich Harden (28)
Mark Hendrickson (36)
Livan Hernandez (35)
Tim Hudson (34) – $12MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Jason Jennings (31)
Jason Johnson (36)
Randy Johnson (46)
John Lackey (31)
Cliff Lee (31) – $8MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Braden Looper (35) – option
Rodrigo Lopez (34)
Jason Marquis (31)
Kevin Millwood (35) – Rangers can decline $12MM salary for ’10 unless he reaches 180 innings in ’09
Brian Moehler (38) – mutual option
Brett Myers (29)
Vicente Padilla (32) – $12MM club option with a $1.75MM buyout
Chan Ho Park (37)
John Parrish (32)
Carl Pavano (34)
Brad Penny (32)
Odalis Perez (33)
Andy Pettitte (38)
Joel Pineiro (31)
Sidney Ponson (33)
Mark Prior (28)
Horacio Ramirez (30)
Jason Schmidt (37)
John Smoltz (43)
Tim Wakefield (43) – perpetual $4MM club option
Jarrod Washburn (35)
Brandon Webb (31) – $8.5MM club option with a $500K+ buyout
Todd Wellemeyer (31)
Kip Wells (33)
Randy Wolf (33)
Looks like next year we will have at least 2 spots open.
I would like to see us go outside the organization and land 1 quality free agent starter like Rich Harden, & Jason Marquis.
But I am not hopeful
2 spots?
Baker, Slowey, Blackburn and Liriano or Swarzak. At most I see one spot open for someone like Pavano.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Liriano or Swarzak?
So far I don’t think either has earned anything and both could be in the pen next year
by clutterheart on Aug 10, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The Twins way
They will set up a competition for the fifth spot. I can’t recall anyone earning that prior to spring training.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Aside from Baker, how much of this regression can be attributed to workload from last year?
I saw something on SI.com early in the season about predictions based on innings pitched about who might regress and a couple Twins starters were on that list. Since Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn were in their first full seasons in the majors, and Liriano back from surgery (he pitched close to 200 innings last year between the majors and the minors) it seems like this might not be all that unusual.
In fact, it seems fairly common to have pitchers regress after their first full big league seasons and the expanded work load.
Can't say for certain
It seems to me that innings pitched is not as important as pitches thrown. The Twins usually limit their starters to about 100 pitches. Sometimes this gets annoying, but all teams do it so I guess I have to accept it. The point is that the Twins starters were pitching well last year so they got a lot of innings. In terms of numbers of pitches per game, they were not overworked, however. And because of that workload, their arms should have been better prepared to deal with the grind of this year’s season.
A more plausible solution to me is that hitters have gotten enough looks at our pitchers now to be comfortable facing them. When hitters have an idea what to expect, their chances for success rise. Over time, a mediocre pitcher gets exposed, and I think that is what has happened to Perkins in particular this year.
True, but...
There’s not actually any data behind the 100-pitch limit – it’s become the de facto standard for pitch count limitation, but I don’t believe there’s evidence that it’s optimal at all.
I agree with you in principle (a few high-pitch outings are worse than a lot of moderate ones), but I don’t know how good the research is yet.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Agree with you on the 100 pitch count thing
I am annoyed by it too. Even if a pitcher is throwing a shutout, once he reaches 100-110 pitches it seems like he’s got to be pulled according to managers. My only point was that innings pitched is a bit of a deceptive stat if you are trying to figure out the wear on a pitcher’s arm.
A more plausible solution to me is that hitters have gotten enough looks at our pitchers now to be comfortable facing them.
That’s why it’s a game of adjustments. You don’t adjust, you’re gone.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
by Johnny Safron on Aug 10, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
And our pitchers don’t keep them honest enough by throwing in off the plate. The Tigers looked a little too comfortable against us, except when Pavano was on the mound. He plunked a couple and threw inside regularly.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
no offense Sheldon, but how do you know this?
In terms of numbers of pitches per game, they were not overworked, however. And because of that workload, their arms should have been better prepared to deal with the grind of this year’s season.
“They were not overworked,” You state that as if it is a fact. Or as if you are the pitching coach, or maybe the pitcher’s mom. See this is where statistics can help (aka – numbers) to analyze rather than people just throwing out random opinions. No problem with random opinions, we all have ‘em. But as we see time and time again in life, opinions and observations sometimes just don’t equal objective reality.
Were the young pitcher’s arms a little overworked last season? Beats the heck out of me, but Rick Anderson and Ron Gardenhire apparently speculate that might be the case in a recent Kelly Thesier article on mlb.com. Maybe its an excuse, I dunno.
The real problem here is you claim the number of pitches was not a problem and discount not only other blogger’s opinions but the Twins’ coaches as well… …and then you don’t even bother to give us the numbers, how those numbers relate to other sophmore pitchers, how those numbers relate to the number of pitches they threw the year before… I think you might get the drift…
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 10, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions
You're nitpicking so let me say it slightly differently
They were not overworked compared with other starters in baseball. Everybody seems to use the 100 pitch count limit, especially the Twins.
In regards to discounting other bloggers’ opinions, I never intend to do that. In my defense, I have never called anyone stupid, which was actually done to me last week.
I missed that.
Personal attacks aren’t really allowed here, it’s one of the things I’m kind of a stickler about. Just let it roll off your back, but if it keeps happening let me know.
PiPress
article provides some reasons why Mauer is more important a piece (aka MVP) than Morneau; suggests starting pitcher’s woes a product of overthinking and tired arms from being overworked last season.
note: at the mid-end of the article Gardenhire discounts the theory that opposing batters are figuring the starters out… just saying!
http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_13033998?source=rss&nclick_check=1
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 11, 2009 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
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