White Sox Gamble Again
by Jesse on Aug 11, 2009 9:27 AM EDT
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PrintKenny Williams might have just pulled off his second coup in the last two weeks.
Gambling on Jake Peavy was one thing. A Cy Young candidate when he's healthy, it's pretty easy to defend the $52 million Chicago will be shelling out for his services from 2010 - 2012, and maybe even that $22 million option in 2013 could look like a steal when the time comes. Now the Sox have added Alex Rios. He's having a down year, but there's no denying what he could bring to the table in the middle of the order for an aging lineup.
Like Peavy, Rios is owed a lot of money over the next few years. It's $58.7 million from 2010 - 2014, with a $13.5 million dollar option in 2015.
Prior to both of these shrewd maneuvers, the White Sox had approximately $45 million committed to their 2010 payroll, and roughly $28 million committed to 2011. (Figures courtesy of Cots Contracts.) With these two additions they still have room to maneuver, but I wonder how much.
| Player | 2010 | 2011 |
| Jake Peavy, SP | $15,000,000 | $17,000,000 |
| Alex Rios, RF | $9,700,000 | $12,000,000 |
| Mark Buehrle, SP | $14,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| Paul Konerko, 1B | $12,000,000 | --- |
| Jermaine Dye, RF | $1,000,000 | --- |
| A.J. Pierzynski, C | $6,250,000 | --- |
| Scott Linebrink, RP | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Mike MacDougal, RP | $350,000 | --- |
| Dayan Viciedo (Minors) | $2,250,000 | $2,250,000 |
| Matt Thornton, RP | $250,000 | --- |
| Alexei Ramirez, 2B | $1,225,000 | $1,225,000 |
| Gavin Floyd, SP | $2,750,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Total | $69,775,000 | $56,975,000 |
That's a lot of money. It doesn't include picking up options on Dye (add $11 million, if for some odd reason the Sox actually pick it up) or Thornton (add $2 million), paying Bobby Jenks more than $6 million for his second year of arbitration or Wilson Betemit around $2 million for his third, or money for first-year arb guys like John Danks and Carlos Quentin. Jim Thome, Octavio Dotel and Jose Contreras are all free agents.
If the White Sox are planning on duplicating this year's $95 million opening day payroll in 2010, it will be interesting to see how they choose to fill their open roster spots.
The genius behind both of these moves is that if they pay off and both Peavy and Rios play like they're capable of playing, Williams will have given Ozzie Guillen a pair of stud 29-year olds who inject high-level and prime-aged lifeblood that will keep Chicago's window of competetive ball open. The gamble, naturally, is that if Rios is closer to his '08 or '09 version than his '06 or '07 version, and/or if Peavy doesn't get and stay healthy, then Chicago has taken on over $100 million worth of contract for two guys.
I haven't always been a fan of the way Williams has run the White Sox, or the way he sometimes handles himself. But he made a couple of ballsy, high-risk, high-reward maneuvers these last couple of weeks, and nobody can accuse him of playing it safe or of not taking the risks necessary to put his club over the top. And the best part (for White Sox fans) is that it couldn't have come at a better time, whether you're thinking about 2009 or the future. Chicago has given playing time to 16 guys 32 or older just this year. This rejuvenation was necessary.
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He's gambling on the right guys
He’s bought low on two talented, cost-certain players that fill big holes (starting pitcher, centerfielder). Rios is not going to be a good fielding CF, but the White Sox have had a bunch of poor fielding centerfielders (Everett, aging Griffey, Podsednik) lately that couldn’t hit either. If he fills CF capably and hits around career averages for the next couple years he has a steal. He can move to a corner again if the White Sox find another CF option. The Sox have the revenue to make these kinds of moves. I think they give up too much young talent but it hasn’t really hurt them yet.
"Good"
By “good” I mean in the upper 1/3 of CF. He’ll be adequate for the next couple seasons is my guess.
he's a career ~14 UZR150 in RF
which translates to +4 in CF. that at least puts him in the running for good by your definition. though that hardly makes your claim “false” as i put it.
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He does have a plus UZR/150 rating in CF.
I don’t think he profiles as a typical center fielder, but he’s a great athlete.
Not really...
…he did play over 500 innings there in 2008. Over 800 innings in center for his career, and he’s still a plus.
Either way it sounds like he should be able to do more than hold his own there.
the magic number is 3 full seasons.
one reason i really dislike fangraphs WAR values. they don’t use their own data properly.
THIS STORY ONLY ENDS ONE WAY
I think they are both good gambles for a team that has financial pockets as deep as they do,
then again, I thought Delmon Young was a good gamble too.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 11, 2009 10:30 AM EDT reply actions
Sunk cost
I think that’s the cost of declining Dye’s option.
The more I think about this move the more it makes perfect sense for the White Sox. They have a gaping hole in CF, overpaying a little makes a lot of sense. I wish the Twins would pick up Brian Roberts for nothing.
Option
Like DJL44 said, it’s the buyout for his option – according to Jesse’s article, the option is for $11 million, and it’s unlikely that the Sox will pick it up.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Pretty much.
It’s a $12 million option for Dye in 2010, but they’d be paying the first mil for the buyout anyway. Basically, the Sox have to figure out if Dye is worth $11 million dollars…because with an already tight payroll, that’s a lot of money.
Makes sense
Of course, I could have just clicked the link in your article to know that for sure, but I figured scrolling up the page was plenty of research.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Not a chance
I think Dye will go next year. They’ve basically made a decision that Rios is a better value, so they “signed” him through waivers.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 16, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions
I wish the Twins would pick up Brian Roberts for nothing.
You can say that again.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
This move...
…gives them a shot this year, energizes their fan base, and has a chance to carry over next year. It’s pretty clever. It’s not rent-a-player stuff, and it’s not off-season navigation through the free agent market. I give them credit.
Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.
I give them a lot of credit as well
for being bold and taking risks. I wonder if we took all of Ken Willams’ bold moves over the past 5+ years, have they come out on top or hurt themselves? Obviously, they won the World Series, but as a result of his bold moves, or everything coming together at the right time?
I coudl see Rios – Peavy working out like gangbusters. I could also see this blowing up in the White Sox face and saddling with very large contracts for an injured pitcher and an overrated outfielder.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 16, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions
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