How bad are the Twins this month?

by Johnny Safron on Aug 15, 2009 10:07 PM EDT Comment 31 comments

So bad that it is August 15 and they have played only four games in which Joe Nathan would have been considered an option. The Twins have either won by so much or lost by so much that their All-Star closer has pitched twice in August and is on pace for a career low in games and innings.

The Twins really have 4-and-a-half "championship" players, with Nathan as the only pitcher. Then you have Mauer, Morneau, Span and Crede - when he can answer the bell.

You can't really win much of anything at the big-league level with so few championship players, and the way this club has played this month, it has managed to marginalize one of them.

Keep it up, boys. Since the advent of the "closer," it's not likely anyone's healthy closer appeared only four times in a month. The Twins have Nathan on such a pace.

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Jason Kubel

And don’t tell me that scrappy Nick Punto isn’t a Championship player.

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by Andersklasen on Aug 15, 2009 10:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If getting your jersey dirty is a pro sport

then Punto would be king of it

by Hjorvarthr on Aug 15, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um I think there's a typo in that sentence

the “c” in championship shouldn’t be capitalized

Son, when you participate in sporting events, it's not whether you win or lose: it's how drunk you get. ~Homer Simpson

by thewild_viking_twins on Aug 16, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kubel?

If he could hit a lefty. Or if all pitchers were right-handed.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 16, 2009 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Johnny johnny johnnnnnnny

you count Span and a half of Joe Crede

but don’t count Kubel at all?

wtf? that makes NO

NO sense

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 16, 2009 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

that makes no sense at all…your argument for:

if Kubel could hit lefties or if all pitchers were right handed…goes nowhere.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

by 33MorneauMVP on Aug 16, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about Cuddyer?

He’s having a pretty good year, too. But that doesn’t make your point any less true.

by Jesse on Aug 16, 2009 7:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Telling point

When your closer isn’t getting regular work, either you’ve been very bad, or when you win, they’ve been blowouts. In any case, this team has taken a step backwards due to its bipolar starting pitching.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 16, 2009 7:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Championship Players

I don’t think the real problem has been a lack of “championship players” on the offensive side. From a WAR standpoint, we are quite top heavy, with Mauer (5.9!), Morneau (3.8), Kubel (2.4), Span (2.4), Crede (2.0) and Cuddyer (1.4) giving solid value all year. The problem offensively is that we’ve had too many below replacement performers out there too often: Punto (-0.1), Tolbert (-0.9), Casilla (-1.3), Young (-1.4).

I would add Baker to your list of “championship” players, but that’s about it on the pitching side. Blackburn has been good overall for the year, but this is the time when you need to step it up rather than fall off the cliff…

by Adam Peterson on Aug 16, 2009 7:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 16, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Championship Players"

It’s not just a number thing. Not everything in baseball is just numbers.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 16, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The 2002 team had one "championship player"

That was Torii Hunter. Everyone else on that team was just average or above. But because they had no players who were below replacement level, and they played together as a team, they came very close to a championship. This team has more talent than the 2002 team. But it also has more poor players who fail in crucial situations.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 16, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When you have a stat that measures just about every contibution from a player on the field...

such as WAR (which accounts for batting, defense, pitching and baserunning), it IS almost “all about the numbers.”

The point is, we need more average to good players to replace most of the poor players on the team (I think both our intuition and WAR tell us that same thing.)

by Mike I on Aug 16, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about Super Duper players?

I think we have a few of those. We also have a great percentage of “Likeability Personalities,” more than 90% of all major league teams, overcome only by the Rays and Mariners. The Twins also lead the league in guys who are “Magically Delicious” by a wide margin.

I see your point that not everything is just numbers in baseball. I do. However, it’s quite convenient to make up your own categories and criteria, that way no one can argue against your point.

by Neil on Aug 18, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That settles it!

The Twins need to immediately bring Scott Brosius out of retirement. Third base is solved!

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 18, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fine, make another argument about "Championship Players"

and back it up with observations, discussions with Gardy, seances, whatever.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 20, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Offensively we're fine

Yes I know our MI sucks but I think many teams have at least a couple ?‘s on the team offensively. The problem has just been pitching, mostly starting. The bullpen overall has been decent, we have 3 guys who are very reliable and everyone else has shown glimpses and there are a lot of good potential relievers coming soon. I think the main place the Twins need to pay attention to (other than resigning Mauer) is starting pitching. I propose they sign a couple of question mark guys like Bedard and Sheets. Guys who have proven ace potential but there are enough health concerns involved where they won’t be out of range.

The Twin could have a lineup of Bedard Sheets, Baker, Slowey, and Liriano next year. This would also free them up to trade guys like Blackburn, Perkins, Swarzak, and Mulvey for some MI help.

I have no qualms with this teams offense even the poor showing from the MI. Next year is an even year so Punto will start the year as utility and eventually slide into a starting role and have a solid if unspectacular year at the plate. There are a lot of good MI free agents this year so they could easily get someone who would be at least somewhat of an upgrade over what we have. I however, am just hoping for some starting pitchers and not ones that are the usual minnesota signing (Ponson, Ortiz, Livan, blech).

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Aug 16, 2009 10:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The defense has also been horrible

25th best in the league (according to UZR).

Run Prevention = Pitching + Defense

Expect a lot of our pitchers to have bounce-back years if we consistently put better defenders out there next year (that means no more Delmon, Casilla, Harris, Buscher, Tolbert, and the possible addition of a good-glove MI).

by Mike I on Aug 16, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Pitching has been poor, so has the defense.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 20, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Upgrade?

Cabrera has good range and all, but how many errors has he had since coming over? I think Harris would make a good average player to fill in the MI. He will hit 260-270, moderate power, good defense, and does not throw like a girl. Play him at 2B or SS. Then find just one good player to take the other role. Crede is OK, but he will only miss more games as he gets older, and his is batting under 240. Cuddy has more RBI than him since he at least plays more than twice a week. If there will be no decent backup for 3B, you need to find sombody who will play more than Crede. This pitching sucks, I am not sure any of them will look much better next year. I still have hope for Baker.

by dakotajim on Aug 17, 2009 2:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Harris is not a 2B

They’ve tried it. He has no ability around the bag, terrible footwork, is not quick. Really he has no position on defense at this point.

by Old Twins Cap on Aug 17, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Harris' Position

I was under the impression that he’d been decent at SS with the Twins.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 17, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

stats

Fangraphs has him at -2.7 UZR/150 on the year at SS so far, which is slightly below average but not disastrously so. Small sample sizes abound on all his defensive metrics, though.

For reference,
Harris career UZR/150: -6.6 at 2B, -17.6 at 3B, -8.8 at SS.

Punto career UZR/150: 2.0 at 2B, 19.7 at 3B, 16.5 at SS

formerly known in these parts as adamb

by ravenfly on Aug 17, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I liked Harris at SS. Cabrera came out good, but not liking him the last few games. To many DP’s, errors and men left on base. Of course Harris left them full himself just a bit ago. Punto sucks, he is not a starter, he should only play to give others a rest, that is it. Frankie, I am not sure he is fit for the BP, are there any options left on him?

by dakotajim on Aug 17, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is worse than I thought

I was under the impression that he was only slightly below average, especially since coming to the Twins (but that’s not the case either; I checked to make sure). Never mind, then.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 18, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This year was a blip on the radar

of an otherwise horrible fielding career. Even this year, he’s had moments when I can’t believe how uncoordinated he is.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 18, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, harris is a disaster defensively

My favorite Harris playing "defense"story:

I was a t a game earlier this year with my dad. we were sitting over on the first base side, around the bag. My girlfriend was also at the game with her family, sitting elsewhere over on the third base side. Now you have to understand, my girlfriend doesn’t totally hate baseball, but saying she merely tolerates it is probably fair, and she really knows very little about the game. For example, she frequently complains that she can’t see tha ball ever after it’s hit and said she didn’t find the idea of a perfect game very impressive because the hitters were allowed to hit the ball in play.

So this girl, after the, like, 3rd inning, send me a text that says “who’s the guy at shortstop, he sucks.” It was none other than Brendan Harris. Harris hadn’t even made an error or anything terrible like that, he’d just done the crap he does routinely. I could only smile and shake my head that even someone like her could very quickly see Harris is not an adequate defender up the middle.

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 18, 2009 5:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs