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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Nick Blackburn Continues Skid, Twins Season Slipping Away

Twins 4, Indians 7

I understand that you need to get Joe Nathan a little work.  But when he took a shot off his ankle/heel, I couldn't help but think that it was like a Ferrari owner getting upset when his new car got a dent after being entered in a demolition derby.  There's just something a little sad about running out your prize stallion when he's better off in the stable.

Today's game was highlighted (and I use that term lightly) by two scoreless innings by Nick Blackburn to lead off the game, a two-run Delmon Young home run, and then a bunch of wasted opportunities.  Following Young's sixth homer of the season, here's a miserable summary of how the team handled situations with their own men on base the rest of the way.

  • Bottom of the 3rd:  After Denard Span singles, Orlando Cabrera grounds into a double play.
  • Bottom of the 4th:  Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Crede all earn walks to load the bases with one out.  Young grounds into an inning-ending double play.
  • Bottom of the 5th:  Nick Punto leads off with a single.  Span and Cabrera go quietly before Joe Mauer laces a liner between Shin-Soo Choo and the left field line.  Choo makes a nice sliding play to snare it for the third out.
  • Bottom of the 6th:  After Jason Kubel walks with one away, Cuddyer and Crede can't move him around.
  • Bottom of the 7th:  With one away, Punto doubles and Span walks.  Cabrera grounds into another double play.
  • Bottom of the 8th:  Mauer picks up a lead-off single.  Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer are retired in succession.

There were just so many missed opportunities by the offense, and yet they still managed to score four runs.  But when they get men on base in eight innings and only score in two of them, that constitutes a failure.

Blackburn's third inning was the inning that would never end.  Home run (3-1), strike, home run (3-2), ball, hit by pitch, ball, ball, home run (3-4), strike, strike, ball, foul, foul, single, ball, double (3-5), foul, foul, OUT, strike, foul, ball, single (3-6), pulled from the game.  23 pitches was all it took to absolutely destroy Nick.  Hell, that 3-0 lead was erased in about two minutes.  Honestly, just eight pitches.  There's no other word to describe it other than catostrophic.

Jesse Crain stacked up a pitch count, but got through 1.2 innings and allowed just one run.  Oddly enough, that performance lowers his ERA.  By this time it was just the fourth inning, and although the score was 7-3 that's still plenty of time to put together a run; to chip away at what was (in spite of how it felt) only a four-run lead.  But we know how that turned out.

Jeff Manship pitched around a pair of walks and a hit to earn 1.2 scoreless innings, and Jose Mijares pitched through the seventh.  Matt Guerrier and Joe Nathan then combined for a pair of scoreless innings to complete the night.

Once the Indians scored six in the third, the entire makeup of the game changed.  Cleveland starter Aaron Laffey picked up a little luck with some help from his defense, and he topped it off by getting more than one Minnesota hitter to hack at balls outside of the zone.  High fastballs, tailing sliders, changeups out of the zone, it was maddening.  And it didn't stop with Laffey.  John Smith and Tony Sipp, in the middle innings when the Twins still had opportunities AND time, continued to take advantage of an offense that was pressing itself.  The results, for Minnesota, were ugly.

The Tigers lost today, but as of this writing the White Sox are leading Oakland by a run in the eighth.  If this plays out, the Twins will still be trailing Detroit by six games, but they'll also be trailing Chicago by four-and-a-half.  Forget about the Wild Card; Minnesota is 10.5 out on that front, and about to head to Wild Card leader Texas.  Yes, to Texas, where a bullpen that's been winded the last two days will be largely unavailable for at least the heat of game one.

I'm praying for a sweep of the Rangers.  And a little help.

Studs
#3:  Delmon Young  (1-for-4, HR, 2 RBI, R, -.007 WPA)
#2:  Denard Span (2-for-4, BB, RBI, .022 WPA)
#1:  Nick Punto  (2-for-3, 2B, BB, R, .061 WPA)

Duds
#1:  Nick Blackburn  (2.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 3 HR, 2 K, -.482 WPA)
#2:  Orlando Cabrera  (0-for-5, 2 GIDP, 5 LOB, -.210 WPA, although again some nice defense)
#3:  Delmon Young  (Both lists, I know, but that bases-loaded GIDP sucked)

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Shouldn't worry about the Tigers and WSox anymore

Cleveland’s catching up to third place and if they pass the Twins, that’ll be the biggest disappointment of the year.

The fact we can’t compete with a team that traded away most of their core players(and the last place team in the division) is just pathetic.

1 win in Texas is all I can envision right now

by Hjorvarthr on Aug 16, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Normally I'd say Texas is missing Cruz one of their big boppers and Kinsler just got back

but really does it matter who the Rangers put out there?
I just hope Ryan doesn’t decide he feels spry and wants to pitch a 10 K game against the Twins… b/c he probably could.

by caluofmn on Aug 17, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we can't beat the Royals or Indians...

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 17, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

complete disarray

The starting rotation has now entered “basket case” territory.

Time to start the “to do” list for off season:

1. sign Joe.
2. 2 starting pitchers – 1 #2 (or better) & 1 #4 (or so)
3. fix infield – 2B, 3B & SS
4. address relief
5. decide on OF alignment

by BD57 on Aug 16, 2009 6:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I think that sounds about right.

I probably even agree on the order of importance. #’s 3 and 4 are pretty close.

by Jesse on Aug 16, 2009 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

To do list

I pretty much agree with you.

1. Sign Joe
2. Starting pitchers, sign one #3 or better. A #1/#2 is going to be very expensive, possibly at the expense of goals #1, 3 and 5 on my to do list.
3. Sign Joe
4. Infield, at this point looking to next year we have a total of zero quality starting 2B/SS/3B. Hopefully Valencia is the answer next year at third, maybe we’ll give Tolleson a chance. We need to bring in one or two guys though.
5. Sign Joe

With the outfield, we need to decide whether Delmon is going to be a player. I can live with the alignment we’ve got though, as long as Span-Gomez-Cuddyer is the alignment around 2/3 of the time.

In the bullpen, while I’d like to sign an arm or two, my gut tells me we may have enough arms if we get a starting pitcher. Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares is the core. Add Perkins or Swarzak to the pen, perhaps even Liriano if we sign two SP.

Hypothetical: Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Pavano, Brett Myers in the rotation, Nathan, Guerrier, Mijares, Liriano, Perkins, Swarzak, Delaney/Slama in the bullpen. Try out what they used to do in the 50s and 60s, let your future starters (e.g. Swarzak, Mulvey, Manship) learn by pitching to major leaguers out of the bullpen.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 16, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd still much rather

have Liriano in the rotation than Blackburn.

by DK on Aug 16, 2009 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

me too

although how much rope does he have left?
He is also on thin ice I would think.

by caluofmn on Aug 17, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

The OF Situation

I wonder if there’s a dark-horse resolution to the OF situation – trading Kubel. He’s the only Twins outfielder who’s a “sell high” candidate (well, maybe Span, but I’m more hesitant to part with him), and he’s competent enough on defense that he could play for an NL team. He’s potentially under contract for two more years, so he’d likely get something decent in return, although I have no idea how much to expect.

I’m not necessarily advocating this (I like Kubel, and he’s become a legitimately very good to great player), but if Smith is still unwilling to punt on Gomez or Young, this is one way to get them both in the lineup every day, and maybe Kubel is a proven enough commodity to get something that has present value, rather than more projects.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 17, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

that is short sighted

Trading Kuble creates a huge hole in DH.
Do we really want to start having the Jason Tyners of the world fill that role again? Or spend real dollars to get an aging veteran?

I’d rather see Gomez, Young, or Cuddyer moved… and I really like Cuddyer but I think moving Kubel is the wrong move for the Twins.

by caluofmn on Aug 17, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

No it doesn't

Were I in charge of the lineup, trading Kubel would make Michael Cuddyer the regular DH, which is hardly leaving a huge hole (he can play the field on Mauer and Morneau’s DH days). Basically, the outfield/DH moves from a rotation to a set lineup. This would require Pridie or someone coming up as a fifth outfielder, and it runs the risk of being derailed if someone (cough CUDDYER cough) gets hurt.

Like I said, I’m not sure I’m actually in favor of the move, but if you think Delmon and Gomez are going to develop and want to make a trade to ensure them playing time, Kubel is probably the most expendable. He’s the worst of the five in the field, he’s a lefty on a team loaded with lefties (Cuddyer is the team’s only good righthanded hitter, although obviously if you think Delmon and Gomez will develop, that’s not as big an issue), and he’s basically a finished product, which probably makes him alluring to a trade partner.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 17, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

really…
Cuddyer as a DH doesn’t sound too good for me. Kubel seems like a much better hitter for AVG and HR. Playing Pridie doesn’t sound so good either. I’m willing to wait on Delmon or Go Go but not both.
I hope they don’t trade Kubel but it seems like that idea is starting to gain some traction, at least here.
Agree to disagree if that’s ok with you.

by caluofmn on Aug 17, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fine by me

Besides, I don’t totally disagree with you – I’m not terribly keen on the move, either. It’s more a question of how much they believe in Young and Gomez and, if they’re going to make a move, whether it’s more prudent to sell high on Kubel or cut bait on Gomez/Young.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 17, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Value versus return

Considering Kubel’s more reasonable contract, trading him in the offseason could make sense. But only if we address another need through the trade. Kubel has been a good DH, but Cuddyer’s not too far off. According solely to wRAA on fangraphs, Cuddyer is 7 runs behind Kubel offensively. Then consider the dropoff from Cuddyer to Young in RF, we would probably need to get around a 15-20 run value in return to break even…

by Adam Peterson on Aug 20, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those three Cleveland home runs today...

…were the three loudest, hardest hit trippers I ever witnessed in one inning at the Dome. Blyleven used to say that if you’re going to give them up, make them epic. Mission accomplished, Blackie.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 16, 2009 8:27 PM EDT reply actions  

in the Startrib

Blackie said he wasn’t using his legs enough… well looks like he added enough velocity to make sure those HRs he gave were no doubters… way to freakin’ go Blackie.

by caluofmn on Aug 17, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Using his legs

Bert pointed out he was driving off his lower body OK in the first two innings. About the first or second batter in the third, Bert pointed out that Blackburn stopped driving toward home. That’s when the ball started leaving the yard.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 20, 2009 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

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