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Five things this year is still good for

The Twins haven't won a series since July, and considering they've taken on the post-strip-mining Indians twice and the hapless Royals once in that time, that's saying something. Specifically, what it's saying is that this season is over. Finished. Done-zo. Fin

Most of you agree with me, judging by last night's poll.  Unless the pitching staff makes a miraculous bootleg turn and veers over to "respectable", playoffs are not in Minnesota's future.  And yet, 45 games are left to play, and honestly that 2010 season is coming up quicker than you might expect.

With that in mind, here's the five things that I think the Twins can still accomplish in 2009:

1. Start priming the Danny Valencia pump.

Few seem to doubt that Valencia is Minnesota's third baseman of the future, and with Joe Crede unlikely to be back next year, Valencia's going to have to start learning the major-league trade at some point.  I can't think of a reason that some time in the majors would damage his development, unless he's super-fragile mentally, and if that's the case then he's probably not the answer in 2010 anyway.  The remainder of the season would give Valencia some time to try his luck in the majors.  (And - not to be too cynical here, but Crede's only at 338 plate appearances, and he's got plenty of bonuses coming up based on PAs.  Valencia could save some money.)

2. Decide once and for all on Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez.

Something has to give, here.  Remember, Young is younger than Denard Span and only three months older than  Gomez, so we're not talking about any wily veterans here, no matter what the service time says.  Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are both signed through 2010 with club options for 2011; Span, Gomez, and Young are all under team control through 2012 or 2013.  We know Kubel will be the regular DH for the foreseeable future, Span seems to have locked down a lineup spot, and as for Cuddyer, the Twins aren't about to dump a team leader that has a 123 OPS+.  We all know about the strengths and weaknesses of the two players - and neither is being well-served by playing only half the time.  Something's gotta give here, and the team might as well figure that out over the rest of this season.

3. Let the starting rotation work out some issues.

Every starter is going out there and pressing - Francisco Liriano overthrows, Nick Blackburn stops driving with his lower body, Anthony Swarzak juts out his jaw and tries to throw the ball 135 miles an hour and actually through a hitter's bat.  No doubt every pitcher in the rotation feels a target on his back, when what each one really needs is to get out there and work through his problems.  Even if it turns into spring training on the mound, the young pitchers need to know that they should be out there working on their pitches, working on getting themselves to where they should be, rather than focusing exclusively on winning.  (Put another way: I'm not sure we should see Carl Pavano every fifth day, either.)

4. Keep a few miles off the odometers in the bullpen.

There's really no reason for Matt Guerrier to pitch every other day, is what I'm saying.  It'd be nice to get some chances for guys who the Twins hope to be late-inning guys soon - your Jose Mijareses and your Anthony Slamas, for example - rather than just reflexively going to Guerrier in the eighth inning.

5. Mauer.

He's hitting .377 again.  He could win the batting title again.  (If he went berserk, yes, he could conceivably chase .400, too.)  Moreover, he has 22 home runs and should be a legitimate part of any discussion about AL MVP, even if the Twins finish 70-92.  No matter how bad the Twins are, Mauer will always be a joy to watch.

(And there's that small matter of contracts and free agency and such, too.  But I hardly need to explain that.)

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments |

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Not exactly overworked

>>There’s really no reason for Matt Guerrier to pitch every other day

He’s had so much time off this month that they’ve had to work to get him the five appearances he’s made August 1-16. He was in Sunday’s game, for instance, just to get an inning of work.

It’s funny, last year Guerrier had a weak season and Gardenhire was blamed for overworking him. This year ol’ Matty is having a great season, the Twins are playing games in which he’s not even a fit for the situation, and again the implication is Gardenhire’s approach to the bullpen is on cruise control.

What would you have done with Guerrier this month?

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 17, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not saying they've used him wrong.

Just saying that they need to continue to use him with an eye on 2010. Let’s say they play three close games with Texas; I’d rather see Guerrier appear in, max, one of those three (and see the team try out a couple of others in late-inning relief.)

I probably wrote too long, really, now that I think about it. The upshot of everything I said would be, “Let’s pretend Spring Training 2010 starts today.”

by Jon Marthaler on Aug 17, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I want Valencia up,

but I think I’m still happy to wait for September when he’ll get called up anyway. But I am looking forward to seeing him in person.

And I’m not sure how to handle the outfield situation. You can’t just juggle them, because when somebody is hot (or cold) you don’t want to be flipping guys just because “that’s the plan”. But at the same time, it almost seems like a waste to keep Delmon on the bench when he does have so much talent. It’s just unfortunate that the Twins have two 23-year old OF’s with talent and upside, but neither of them are really earning time.

by Jesse on Aug 17, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree about Sept callup

I don’t see Valencia as the type of player to stick in the majors immediately, probably a Sept callup to get his feet wet and show him the adjustments he needs to make. Then the Twins go with Harris/Buscher again next spring until Valencia destroys AAA and he’s up for good (July?). I think the Twins will be less agressive pursuing 3B help and more aggressive at 2B/SS this offseason due to Valencia, Harris and Buscher all on the roster.

The rotation is just full of question marks. I would only mark Baker and Slowey as certain to return. The rest of Blackburn, Swarzak, Liriano, Perkins needs to be sorted out and then they have Bonser coming back also.

by DJL44 on Aug 17, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Might they try to trade Crede?

The Mets need a 3B. If they can pass him through until the Mets claim him, they might be able to get a decent prospect in return. Then you can call up Valencia.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 17, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Mets have worse playoff chances than us

And I don’t think Crede would bring back much of anything anyways.

by Mike I on Aug 17, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are 10 teams with...

…better records than the Mets in the NL. They are playing .430 ball since the break. They play .390 on the road and are looking at 22 more road games (about half the remaining schedule) with a September doubleheader in Philadelphia. I’d say the Mets wouldn’t need a third baseman who, based on his workload so far this season, will play in 30 of the team’s remaining 45 games.

Bloggin' the bloggers since 1938.

by Johnny Safron on Aug 17, 2009 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OF has been

unsettled all year and has contributed to the Twins lacking any momentum. Last year the Twins tied with Chicago for lst place (before the playoff game) with Gomez, Span, and Young in the outfield. I think Cuddyer would be a good trade candiate..maybe in part for a good SP. The other outfielders are young and talented. Maybe Valencia and Crede can share 3rd plus if Crede can be RH DH.

by justintime on Aug 17, 2009 10:58 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It'd be a mistake to trade Cuddyer.

If you deal him, you’re back to trying to find another RH hitter. It’s creating a hole to fill another one. Dealing from a position of excess is ideal, but right now he’s the only offensive outfielder who can hit in the middle of the order, and the only other OF who can hit (because we don’t count Kubel) is your leadoff man. Your corner OF’s need to provide offense.

by Jesse on Aug 17, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Keep Gomez

I’ve actually been a defender of Young at many times and to be honest if we were a team in middle of rebuilding I’d say keep em both, trade cuddy and get ‘em some playing time. However, at this moment they both show similar potential at the plate and Gomez is already one of the top center fielders in the league. He has enough defensive value to make up for what he lacks at the plate and given enough PA and even becoming average with the bat he could be a very valuable asset. We’ve got guys like Tosoni, Revere, and Hicks on their way. By the time Cuddyer is gone in two years Tosoni and Revere should be ready to role I would think and possibly some other surprises come along.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Aug 17, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not quite

Young is far and away a better hitter, but Gomez covers much more ground in the field.

by dakotajim on Aug 17, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Young could be a better hitter

but simply considering wRAA, Gomez is ahead of Young this year. -8.5 runs to -8.8. Both well below average.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 20, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't buy it

respectifively; yes, Cuddyer does his some homeruns but I don’t think a 270 batting average is anything irreplaceable. If they could trade to improve there starting pitching I think would benefit more. Plus, Gomez and Young are only 23, let them play more and I’m convinced they’ll improve. This OF rotation certainly hasn’t worked. Wasn’t Young originally RF, move him back and Span in LF. Bring Valencia up and rotate with Crede plus Crede can be RH DH.

by justintime on Aug 18, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Spring training

I agree that they should look at this as early spring training. Valencia / Delaney / Slama or whomever is going to play for the big league team next year, are likely to have some adjustments they need to make. Hot start, slump, recovery, hopefully. Let’s get some of that out of the way now.

As for the outfield, I think the Twins need to quietly put up both Cuddyer and Kubel for trade, and see who will bring a bigger haul. Remember, Kubel is a better hitter, a worse fielder, and a lot cheaper. Weigh those things, and try to use them to get a young middle infielder, or a starting pitcher. I’m thinking Kubel + Duensing for Alcides Escobar or Yunel Escobar (or something like that, even a top AAA prospect, who hasn’t broken through yet).

That clears up the log jam, and reallocates resources to our weak spots. The Twins can also go out and sign another middle infielder (medium expense type), and look at bullpen options. I also think the Twins should think about someone like Pudge Rodriguez next year, who could play a backup at C and 1B, so that Mauer and Morneau could get a lot of DH time.

As for starting pitching, I really think the Twins chances for next year depend on their rotation fixing itself, not outside help. I don’t think we should count on getting any more than 1 outsider. If Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Liriano and Perkins can’t provide us at least four quality arms, there is no way we are a contending team. Don’t throw too many resources at bringing in other pitchers.

by snolls on Aug 17, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe someone who's fallen out of favor

Like Hardy maybe or even Yunel Escobar like you mentioned. Both of those players have fallen out of favor with their teams, Hardy for poor play, Escobar for a reported bad attitude. I could realistically see one of those teams willing to take a chance on a player like Delmon Young + parts to get rid of someone who may not be welcome anymore. I’d much rather see Escobar as he’s under control for 3 years. Anyhow I think that would be a very good option for the Twins, they could offer Young plus one of our plethora of young potential mid rotation starters (Manship, Blackburn, Perkins, Swarzak, Mulvey, Duensing).

I really feel the Twins need to pursue legitimate outside pitching options for the first time in many years. I’m just not confident that any of our pitchers have enough to be a true Ace. Baker, Liriano, and Slowey all could but I’m not counting on it to be honest. There are a few solid Ace options out there that are injury question marks which could push them in to the Twins price range (which should be much higher than usual because of the new stadium). I’d like to see the go after a combination of Sheets and/or Bedard. I think they both will be affordable and at least one of them should work out. I also think they’ll both have to accept shorter term deals and might be more than willing to do so given their injury histories. We could get them on Crede type deals so they can try to prove themselves and then get a bigger contract in a year or two. If they could get them on 2 year deals that would give the Twins the chance to trade away some of our MLB ready pitching for MI help and allow the Twins to send guys to the bullpen if need be.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Aug 17, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No trade for Cuddy

His contract is just too big to trade, he is having a good year, but id does not match what he is being paid, not at his age and with his past health issues. Kubel would bring more interest I would think, he can play in the OF, just not much speed. He is a great hitter, and will get better on LH just like Morneau did. Kubel is one of my favorites, but he may be the best trade since there is so many good LH hitters for the Twins. That is if they keep Mauer. To me, Gomez has shown no growth or promise in hitting, he just is not very good with the bat. Young is getting worse with the Twins, and needs to be more cosistant the whole season. Young will hit better, Gomez can run fast and cover more ground. I would actually rather see Young since Span can cover center, and Young is a RH batter the Twins need. I think more fans like Gomez though, and he is sadly the crowing jewel of the Santana trade.

by dakotajim on Aug 17, 2009 12:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If you keep Young and get rid of Gomez, prepare to see the Twins give up a lot of runs next year

That Young, Span, Cuddyer/Kubel outfield combination is just wretched, especially when you consider that we’re a flyball heavy staff. Span, Gomez, Cuddyer/Kubel is an above-average defensive combo.

So far in their careers, Delmon’s been worth about 10 runs more than Carlos per year with the bat. However, considering that Delmon’s a crappy corner outfielder and Gomez is an excellent CF, Gomez is actually worth about 30 runs more per year on the defensive side of things. Your eyes may not see the difference defensively, but the defensive stats (i.e., UZR, which is quite accurate once you get a few years of data) show otherwise.

by Mike I on Aug 17, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Like I said, Young has gotten worse with the Twins. Not sure why, but this guy had over 90 rbi the year before coming over. He has at least proven he can hit in the majors, Gomez has not. Young is hitting good now, but he did that last year to. Came on much better the last couple of months, and that is not good enough. I just don’t think Gomez is going to be what everyone hopes he will. I see just another Rivas or Guzman in him. JMO.

by dakotajim on Aug 17, 2009 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

10 run difference

when you consider defense this year. That’s based on raw UZR, and you also need to consider that a +8 in CF is more than 10 runs better than a -2 in LF, so it really ends up a 15 run difference on defense alone. Young would have to improve a lot offensively in order to catch up to Gomez value-wise.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 20, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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