Will the Twins Sign Kyle Gibson?
by Jesse on Aug 17, 2009 10:25 AM EDT
in News
27 comments
Deadline: 11pm
If the Twins don't negotiate the gap between their offer of around $1.3 million and Gibson's request of around $2.5 million, then Minnesota's 2009 first-round draft pick will go back to college for his senior year at Missouri. At 21, Gibson was considered a top-talent pitcher in the draft before suffering a stress fracture in his throwing arm.
The last time the Twins didn't sign their first-round draft pick, back in 1996 with Travis Lee, it wasn't necessarily a bad thing. Lee had an undistinguished career, compiling just a .745 OPS for his nine years in the league. But that doesn't mean the Twins are taking this situation lightly.
It sounds like the organization is going for the personal touch, sending a scouting supervisor to Gibson in Indiana. Check out Joe Christensen's details at the Strib.
Can they do it? They aren't the only team racing the deadline, but with so many teams signing players for over-slot money, will the Twins dish out the necessary money for a shot at high talent? Stay tuned...
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Well, they had to know when they drafted him that it was going to take
over slot.
I suspect this gets done. One of the unintended consequences of the new August deadline is that so many guys end up at the last minute. It will be an indictment of the FO if they fail to sign him.
By the way, the silver lining of the way the Twins are playing this year is that they will probably finish in the bottom half of the majors, which means they can sign type-A free agents without losing their first round pick. (Sarcasm).
by Eric in Madison on Aug 17, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions
I suspect it gets done also
But I don’t see how it is an indictment of the FO if they don’t sign him. Unless you think they should just hand him whatever he wants. If a player is willing to not sign, then there is a chance he doesn’t.
It's an indictment
because they knew he was more valuable than the normal 22nd pick due to the circumstances. They took him anyway, which was the correct decision. But they also had to know that it was going to cost more.
If they fail to sign him, it means that they get the 23rd pick next year, which won’t be as valuable as Gibson. If they fail to sign him because of a million or less (40 games worth of Nick Punto), that, to me, is a failure.
Maybe this is bleeding over from other frustrations, but I am not confident in this front office. I don’t think things have been going well since Smith took over. This would be another negative result.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 17, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about this
It’s an indictment because they knew he was more valuable than the normal 22nd pick due to the circumstances.
This argument only holds if you expect the 21st pick to sign for 22nd pick money, because after all, he was only the 21st pick due to those same circumstances.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I'm sorry
I don’t understand the point you are making.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 17, 2009 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry
That was rather poorly worded.
My point is that the “he’s only this low due to circumstances” argument is only ever laid out by the player’s side, not management’s, making it generally very one-sided. If Gibson is only as low as 22 due to extenuating circumstances, it stands to reason that the same circumstances make the 21st pick higher than he “should” be. You hear about lots of players insisting that they be paid above slot because they slid down the draft for some reason; you rarely hear about a team insisting that they pay below slot for the guys who benefit from the same slide.
Example:
Player A slides from 15 to 22 for whatever reason. He requests to be paid like the #15 pick.
Player B rises from 22 to 21 thanks to A’s fall. His team probably does not request to pay him like the #22 pick.
I will note that I rarely pay much attention to the MLB draft, so please let me know if this observation is off base.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Economics
the 23rd pick next year, which won’t be as valuable as Gibson
But is signing Gibson worth $1M more than having the 23rd pick next year?
Yes
Gibson is the best player the Twins have drafted since Joe Mauer. Losing him over $1 million would be insane. Next year, maybe we get another Waldrop or Moses. Is it really worth the risk?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Really???
The best we’ve drafted since Joe Mauer?
He fell to #22 for a reason, and it’s not just because teams thought he’d require a lot to sign. His injury history scared off a lot of teams. Just because his agent says he’s recovered does not mean he’s not a future injury risk.
Stress fracture in his arm
This is the least worrisome arm injury a pitcher can have.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
True...
but if the stress fracture was believed to be caused by a throwing motion believed to put excessive stress on the throwing arm (and I think Parker at OTB provides good evidence in the link I provided that this might be the case), then that is a major red flag.
And I think him falling so far in the draft is a pretty clear indication that some teams were concerned about this risk factor. Pitchers are pretty darn risky when it comes to injuries in the first place.
Players drafted since Mauer
Matt Garza, Denard Span, Pat Neshek, Jesse Crain, Scott Baker, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Kevin Slowey. The Twins haven’t drafted high lately.
You’re pretty good if you’re better than Garza, Baker or Slowey. There’s every reason to believe an equivalent player is available next year at #23.
Also top prospects Valencia, Hicks and Revere – essentially you’re saying Gibson is the #1 Twins prospect?
Then there’s the cautionary examples – Matt Fox, Shooter Hunt
There is not every reason to believe an equivalent player is available
next year at 23. I think this is just wrong. Gibson is like a signability guy who has top 5 talent but drops. In his case, it was an injury, which is worrisome on the one hand, but all I’ve heard is that it will not have long term effect, and I have to assume that the Twins did their homework.
While it isn’t the end of the world if he doesn’t sign, giving up on him over a few hundred grand seems unwise. You have to take a guy you plan to sign, and I have faith that the Twins scouting guys understood the situation when they made this decision. They’ve actually been good at this over the past several years.
Letting your best picks go unsigned is not a way the Twins can really do business. They have to develop talented players.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 17, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds like the Twins up their offer...
..To where is the question. I believe that if Gibson wants to sign and is prepared to sign for less than $2.0mm, it has a good chance of getting done. Maybe $1.8-$1.9mm. I don’t see the Twins going over that magical $2,000,000 number.
That would be a reasonable compromise
but still, if less than $1M stands between us and our first round draft pick, it’s less than a quarter what we’re paying to Nick Punto…
by Adam Peterson on Aug 17, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course we have to pay
I’m putting the $1M into perspective…
by Adam Peterson on Aug 17, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Gibson takes a chance
Gibson needs to look at the money, now. Is he comfortable? Will it work? It will get him in the system one year earlier, and he does have a chance of rising fast and being a part of the team in 2011 if he IS as talented as they say.
The chance he takes going back to college…injury. If he gets injured playing in the instructional league, he still gets paid and the Twins have to worry about rehab and nursing him abck into the game.
If he gets injured during his senior year, he falls even further in the draft cycle.
He ahs to weigh the bucks with the fact that the Twins aren’t totally sure what they are getting, and he doesn’t know what tomorrow will bring.
If he pitches as promised, the millions will happen down the line. If he doesn’t, he still makes money.
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Sure, there's a risk in not signing
but he was a top 5 guy this year. If he thinks he will be that good again next year, there’s reason to hold out for his number. There’s absolutely a risk, but the Twins stand to lose out as well.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 17, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
1 more year of club control
The real incentive for Gibson to sign is that he’s 1 year closer to arbitration/free agency. Trading in one year of prime earning potential for an extra potential $750k in next year’s draft is gambling that you’re going to fail as a major leaguer. Plus, next year he’s a senior and he loses a lot of leverage just by being a senior. I think he signs.
Parker Hageman had an excellent piece on this situation
http://overthebaggy.blogspot.com/2009/08/gibson.html
Basically, he concludes that Gibson’s injury history and mechanics constitute a pretty serious red flag. Definitely worth a read, IMO.
I read that, it's good. A lot of the stuff at OTB is good.
But I still think the Twins need to just bend here and pay the money. They’ve done their due dilligence, waited until the last day to make it look like they didn’t really want to, but the risks of refusing to pay him to not even have the opportunity to see if he can or even can’t work out are all worth it. It’s worth the money just to see if he can hit his upside.
A lot of players in the draft are high risk/high upside
And not all of them demand to be paid twice the slotting recommendation. It’d definitely be great to get him in the farm system, but if the Twins offer him something like $1.8 million (meeting about halfway in the demands) and he doesn’t sign, I wouldn’t exactly be outraged.
That's fair enough, too.
And I get it, I do. But if he doesn’t sign, is drafted next year and turns into a stud, and people realize the Twins didn’t sign him for the difference of $800K, you know there will be much gnashing of teeth.
Ultimately I’m happy to leave this decision up to the Twins, because hindsight is 20/20.
sign him
get it done. This is a deal that needs to be done if we are not going to sign type A FA’s. Period. I am not going to squabble over a million to sign the draft pick when it sounds like he is being mostly reasonable. They do need to compromise and I suspet they will, somewhere between 1.7 and 1.9 million. too foolish not too.
Upside (player) vs injury history and mechanics (management) pick your arguement and decide.
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