The 2010 Rotation
by RandBall's Stu on Aug 21, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
in Speculation
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Mathematically, it's too early to talk about 2010. Lots of divisional games left, the MVP behind the plate, Joe Nathan, LNP hitting .211 (!), etc. But really, COME ON. Every game starts with the Twins down 4-0 and Bobby Keppel warming up. This type of thing doesn't turn around in one month and change. It just doesn't. So, it's with a heavy heart that I officially pronounce "waiting 'til next year" a viable lifestyle choice for Twins fans. If you choose to hold on to hope, that's your call, and we'll welcome you with open arms after the next Nick Blackburn start.
(DID YOU KNOW? Blackburn's starts are no longer being measured via ERA, pitch count, or FIP, but rather the Fujita Scale of tornado intensity. As for why, please check the italicized portions of the F-4 classification: "...structures with weak foundations blown off some distance; cars thrown and large missiles generated.")
So, with that in mind, what do you do about the rotation? I put it to you because I have no idea. I have Scott Baker and four other slots. At best, you hope Kevin Slowey recovers and Nick Blackburn remembers how to pitch to fill two of those holes. I've personally seen enough of Glen Perkins and The Franchise; perhaps you haven't. Carl Pavano? You tell me. The Anthony Swarzak Experiment needs to go back to the lab for further retooling. Duensing? Manship? Humber? Kyle Gibson? Again: I have no idea. Do you?
Put your starting five and your reasoning in the comments. It's Friday afternoon, what else are you going to do?
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Okay.......
The Twins need an Ace. Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey ain’t.
Both will be back.
Blackburn, shades of Carlos Silva. He’ll get another shot. But unless he bangs off a half-dozen wins, he’ll be gone and have to settle for $48 million over 4 years like Carlos Silva someday.
Perkins and Liriano, arbitration bound. Both were hoping for big payouts for 2010. Both will be disappointed. Perkins COULD be bullpen bound. Then we have to deal with attitude. Liriano gets another looksee.
Swarzak. You tell me. Duensing, an aging rookie. Humber…needs to hang around to make the Santana trade look decent. Manship, too early to tell. Boof…maybe he’ll mature. Pavano…maybe for $1.5 million and incentives and the promise that he doesn;t pitch against anyone but Detroit!
Mulvey…a bigger looksee. Do the Twins advance Guerra fast and hard? Will Gibson run thru the system like “something” from a goose in 2010?
Do the Twins care as long as the seats sellout. At least will hear more real abseball commercials next season rather than line-after-line about sunshine and get your tickets to the great outdoors. I would rather buy tickets to a solid baseball game than pay to get a suntan.
Back the question…ALL the guys will be abck in spring training fighting for spots. Because no one will want them. Trade throw-in or otherwise. They have no place to go but up…or out!
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
My view is that there are 3 guys who, if healthy, should have spots
Baker
Slowey
Liriano
As for Liriano…I know that many will disagree, and certainly I could be wrong. But I actually still have as much hope for his next 3 years as I do for anyone on the staff. He still misses bats, which is vital. It might never happen for him, but I still think that he could put together seasons that look like the 2nd half of 2008. I’m not an expert; I don’t know what’s gone wrong this year. It seems to me that he still lacks confidence to let it go. But that’s just a guess.
I have little or no faith in Perkins or Blackburn going forward. I suspect Blackburn will probably still be in the rotation next spring, but I would be looking elsewhere. Swarzak…I don’t think he’s used up his chances; lots of guys struggle to get their major league legs under them. Not willing to slot him in next year’s rotation right now, but he should get more chances.
Ultimately, I do think they probably need to try to find someone outside the organization this off-season. I’m not against trying one of the higher risk injury guys—Sheets if he can pitch.
I do think they need to find an arm for the rotation for next year. But one of the things that poor organizations do is to try to solve last year’s problems instead of anticipating the new problems. I actually still feel OK about those top 3 guys, and about one of Blackburn or Swarzak being the 5th guy. Baker and Slowey are good pitchers. They do need someone, but they don’t need to blow up the rotation.
by Eric in Madison on Aug 21, 2009 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
Perkins as a reliever?
There were discussions within the Twins organization about whether Perkins had a long-term future as a starter or a reliever. I think he could be converted to a setup guy pretty easily. The Twins would have to come up with enough other options to squeeze him out though.
I agree with Baker, Slowey, Liriano (still too early to give up), Blackburn (ditto) and a veteran acquisition – non Livan division. Swarzak, Manship, Duensing, Mulvey fight it out for bullpen roles or 6th starter on the Rochester shuttle. Perkins goes to the pen for good.
I'd get two veteran starters
I’d be happy with Pavano and Washburn to go along with Baker, Liriano and Slowey. Blackburn, Perkins and Bonser can fight it out for the long man job. Add a good lefty set-up guy to Nathan, Guerrier, Neshek, and Mijares. Let Crain battle it out with Morillo, Delaney, Gabino and Slama for the middle guy. Swarzak, Duensing, Mulvey, and Manship go to Rochester. Keppel and Humber go to the Independent leagues.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I keep forgetting about Morillo
Also, I would NOT be happy if Pavano comes back.
Washburn is simply OK
but damn it, for some reason I really love Harden.
by clutterheart on Aug 22, 2009 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd be happy if Pavano comes back
but only as a relatively cheap #3 guy. With Slowey and Baker around, that’s a good 2 through 4, or 5 if you count Blackburn or Liriano. The question is, who’s #1?
by Adam Peterson on Aug 22, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Placeholders
I just think we need a couple of guys in there who are not Type As but will give you 20 QSes a piece. I’m not as concerned about the draft picks if we end up in the bottom half of the league. But it’s the cost that concerns me about guys like Harden. I would hate to sign a guy like that and not have enough money to sign Mauer.
The way it’s going, at least half of the expected salary increase from the new stadium will go to our local future hall of famer. I’m thinking a $10 million raise, minimum. Assuming a $20 million budget bump, that leaves enough to sign maybe one front line pitcher or a couple of mid-rotation starters. And then what do you have left for middle infield help? I guess a dose of realism is in order.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Is it just me, or does that tornado look like Gardy?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Looking at Blackburn's last start
You’d never know he has an 4.29 ERA and 3 CGs. Dr Blackie and Mr Blackboo-urns. Hopefully Slowey, Neshek and Boof will all be healthy next year, but Bill Smith has much work to do this off-season that wasn’t done last winter.
Nice visual though, but I’m getting tired of disaster pics showing up so frequently in game threads. Where have you gone Johan Santana?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 21, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions
possible signs
You can either go all out and get Harden/Sheets/Bedard or you can get a pair from the next tier: Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, Doug Davis, Justin Duchsherer, Jarrod Washburn
I wouldn’t mind a 2010 rotation of
Sheets
Baker
Slowey
Liriano
Blackburn
Hasn't Duchsherer been an all-star recently?
He might be the best pitcher on the list. I like Harden a lot too. Also, I might be wrong about Brian Duensing but I think I would rather take my chances with him than Liriano. I am not totally ready to give up on Liriano, but as I’ve said in the past, I’m done with him for now as a starter.
Either the Twins address the starting rotation or the middle infield, there's no combining those two.
I say get one or two veteran starters and leave the infield as is (Morneau, Punto/Casilla, Harris, Valencia). I would be happy with a rotation of Washburn, Baker, Pavano, Slowey, Blackburn.
Divvy out the remaining rookies to either the bullpen or Rochester. The Red Wings should have a much stronger pitching staff next year, as both Boof and Neshek will be back with the Twins.
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Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Liriano, and some washed up veteran get spots. Perkins, etc. are long relief and injury insurance.
Slowey and Liriano still have big upsides. Give them more time. Slowey deserves a longer leash than Liriano. You can’t ditch Blackburn for having a terrible month. See how he finishes up.
2010 Free Agent Pitchers
I’ll try to limit this to guys who stand a chance to be better than mediocre:
Erik Bedard (huge injury risk, great when healthy)
Jose Contreras (3.96 FIP this year – might be pretty good with a decent defense behind him)
Justin Duchscherer (coming off of elbow surgery)
Kelvim Escobar (lots of shoulder problems lately)
Rich Harden
Tim Hudson ($12m club option for 2010 could get picked up)
John Lackey
Jason Marquis (having a career year with the Rockies)
Carl Pavano
Joel Pineiro (also having a career year – inducing a ton of groundballs with his 2-seamer)
Brad Penny (mediocre right now, but his velocity is up – might be due for a comeback)
Brandon Webb (2010 club option, shoulder problems/surgery; might miss some time in 2010)
His run with Detroit isn't very encouraging
And off that list, I think Marquis would been a decent addition
but anyone would be a decent addition compared to the staff right now
I believe the Rotation will be:
Baker
Slowey
Pavano
Blackburn
Liriano
I really hope the Twins try to sign Pavano to a deal for next year. At the very least he is a veteran that can help the younger pitchers and eat up innings, while still giving you a chance to win…we hope anyways.
Baker and Slowey are locks to be in there, and the Twins seem to have a hard on for Blackburn.
Liriano is an interesting case, but the Twins have a lot of faith that he can get back to be a decent starter so I am sure he will be there.
Perkins can go to the bullpen, maybe a long relief role.
Duensing, Swarzak, and Manship are minor league bound.
Dont forget we still have Bonser and Neshek coming back. Those two along with Nathan, Guerrier, and Mijares is a pretty formidable bullpen, no matter how it is right now.
We have to be careful not to just assumn Neshek
will be who we thought he was (copyright Denny Green). He may take months pitching to get back to his form, or he may not get back at all. Assuming he will be our automatic 8th or 7th inning guy is a mistake, based on Liriano’s performance. And Joe May’s performance. And..
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
cannot sign them all
Here’s the reality, we have several large holes to fill in FA, and I’m guessing if the Twins want to sign Mauer, they had better make a reasonable attempt at putting a decent team behind him. I’m not high on any of the high minors guys close to competing (except Pino). The Twins really need to do something with their derth of AAAA/5th starters in Humber, Mulvey, Swarzack, Duensing, and Perkins. There’s an entire rotation here and realistically a spot for one or two of them. None are going to take the league by storm, and all are essentially clones of each other. Someone has to go. I’m not sure if they can trade some of them away for spare parts or just DFA them, but that needs to change.
With other weaknesses, I doubt they spend a ton. My guess is they may hit the FA market (they really should given the new stadium), so I’m guessing they will target 2 or 3 FA signings. What I’d do (I realize this is more than pitchers)
Offer Crede a similar deal to this year, I suspect he leaves, but if the market is bad, he may take it. I’d also go hard after a middle infielder (Orlando Hudson would be a start, adn with the record being likely under .500, he doesn’t cost a pick)
Sign a high reward pitcher (Sheets and Bedard are the types that come to mind). With injuries, it’s likely they can be had for a shorter term contract. I’d go with the rotation locks:
Sheets/Bedard
Baker
Slowey
Bonser, Liriano, Perkins, and Blackburn get to earn their spots. My guess is that Blackburn keeps his job and either Bonser or Liriano gets the other spot. The pen shoudl be shored up nicely with Nathan, Neshek, Liriano/Bonser, Perkins, Mijares, and Guerrier (with Slama and Delaney waiting in the wings for injury/faltering). My guess is that if they execute, they extend Mauer and probably have a very good year next year.
by diehardtwinsfan on Aug 21, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions
Enough "high reward" guys already
Liriano and Blackburn are enough question marks for me. I’d rather see them sign a veteran innings eater. Someone who can dependably go 7 innings giving up 5 runs or less. Brad Penny would be fine. They need some certainty from a guy who takes the ball every 5th day. That isn’t Carl Pavano. We’ll see if there’s a Kenny Rogers or Jack Morris available on a 1 year deal. Maybe that’s Duchsherer or Hudson.
I completely disagree about a Valencia / Harris / Punto / Morneau infield. That’s awful and has even less depth than this season. Punto needs to be the utility guy, starting nowhere or this team is going nowhere. I could deal with Valencia / Cabrera / Polanco / Morneau with Harris and Punto as the bench players.
I abasolutly agree.
Punto simply cannot be a starter on this team. As a ‘little ’spark plug’ coming off the bech every once in a while it might be cute, but everyday is unacceptable.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. ~Rogers Hornsby
?
I never said go with Punto.
I’d like to get some one like Hudson and then open the competition up to Tolleson, Harris, Cassilla, and Dinkleman for the other MI position. Punto needs to be DFAd, especially since Gardy refuses to NOT play him.
I understand the comments on the pitcher. The problem is that we need an ace or someone above average, not a guy who will post a 4.5 ERA and take 30 starts. If Penny can get a sub 4 ERA, I’m fine with that.
by diehardtwinsfan on Aug 22, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Liriano...
is an interesting situation. Is it his head? Is it still overhang from surgery?
His good memories are now just over 3 years ago.
Question: IF Liriano WAS NOT currently a Twin, who would advocate attempting to get him?
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
This staff needs a leader...
And I don’t mean a typical Twins “leader” type (translation: old and crappy) like Livan Hernandez or Ramon Ortiz.
John Lackey or Erik Bedard are FA’s that would fit the bill and slot in as our #1. After that, I feel we have 3 pitchers on this years staff that have a chance to be more than mediocre 5th starters: Baker, Slowey, and Liriano. Keep them as our 2-4 starters. To round out the staff, I would take Pavano back if we’re talking about similar money to what he’s making this year. He would be $2-2.5 mil well spent.
There’s a couple of injury risks in there, but Perkins, Blackburn, and Swarzak would provide depth and can do well in limited starts.
Oh, and if Bill Smith wants to get off his ass and actually go for it for the 1st time in his life, I’d call Toronto about that Halladay guy…he’s pretty good. We have the resources to pull it off, and he’s not actualy that expensive next year.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
No way on Halladay
1) I seriously doubt we have the resources to pull it off, at least in our farm system.
2) It’s been reported that Halladay has said he wouldn’t revoke his no-trade clause if he were to be traded here.
3) Toronto’s GM wants to dump Vernon Well’s awful contract on the team that gets Vernon Wells.
John Lackey – probably will be re-signed by the Angels, and I don’t think he’d be in the Twins price range anyways (he’ll probably get close to a $100 million deal)
Erik Bedard – he may be a great pitcher when healthy, but his injury problems are very serious. He has a torn labrum, and won’t be throwing until February assuming he has no further setbacks. He’s never thrown 200 innings in a year and he’s already 30 years old. He’s thrown 165 innings the past 2 years. I’d be surprised if he pitches even 100 innings next year. Some team is going to overpay for his upside.
Pavano – he’ll get more than $2.5 million next year unless he has an injury setback or pitches poorly for the rest of the year.
Bottom line is that free agent pitchers almost always get overpaid. Maybe the Twins get lucky and find a diamond in the rough, but that money would probably be better spent on the middle infield.
Agree, agree, agree
Very good point on Bedard. I really don’t get why so many people on this blog are so fascinated with the guy. Though he clearly has talent, he has been hurt far more than he has been healthy.
the same
the same can be said about all of this year’s worthy Free Agents.
After Lackey the best options look like Harden, Sheets, and Bedard. Not exactly beacons of health, any. And after that you got likes of Randy Wolf and Justin Duchsherer. And Pavano? Really? I’d rather give 10 Million to Bedard than 4 Million to Pavano.
So since all talented pitchers in the coming free agent class are health risks, why not get the most talented ones?
by Milt on Tilt on Aug 24, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Bill's Honey Do list:
1 sign joe
2 sign Harden
3 sign washburn
The rotation:
Harden
washburn
Baker
Slowey
Blackburn
Pen
Delaney
Pat N.
Boof
Perk
Majaries (sp???)
Matty G
Joe Nathan
Franky L is traded or not even offered arbritration.
We are two pitchers away from being a contendor. That would give our bullpen more depth, give our next wave of pitchers more time to develop and give us a real shot at going deep into the playoffs
Simply getting rid of Liriano makes no sense
If you’ve got the rotation covered, fine. Convert him into a reliever. If it came down to this, I’d let Perkins go long before Liriano, although we may not have the bullpen arms for that to make sense either.
by Adam Peterson on Aug 22, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Erik Bedard
I’ve seen him on a lot of wish lists so far. I say no thanks. The guy has a torn labrum AND a long injury history. He’s not even going to be ready to throw until February, from what I hear. Someone will overpay for Bedard, it doesn’t need to be us. If we’re insistent on grabbing an injury risk, I’d look at Harden or Sheets first.
What's with the Washburn love
Last season we were thanking Seattle for actually wanting something for him, and this year he gets lucky and everyone wants him… No way he does as well next year as he does this year… Doubt its even close.
by diehardtwinsfan on Aug 22, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions
Gardy's in there
I see the bill of his cap and his nose in the bottom right hand corner – it’s a profile view.
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