FanPost

Prospect Ranking: Statistics

A while ago, I asked you for idea on how to best rank and evaluate prospects. There were many great ideas, but I think actual on-field results top them all and deserve most recognition/value.

Here is an attempt to plug actual statistical results into a "Master Prospect Ranking" formula that I will use in a few months to rank the top prospects in the Twins' system.

(Remember - this is just the statistical portion. I will add other components as time goes on.) After the jump I'll explain my thoughts...

The first thing I've done is find the league average of five major statistic categories in each of the five Twins' minor leagues (IL, Eastern, Florida St., Midwest, GCL) and assign penalties/rewards for being below/above average in each of the categories. There is no penalty for playing at the same level as the average hitter in the league. (Though there are flat values for each league, which I'll explain later.)

Let's take for example the International League, home of our Rochester Red Wings.

Batters

Batting Avg: .262        if >= 10 points above = +10
                                       if >= 10 points below = -10

OBP: .328                     if >= 10 points above = +10
                                       if >= 10 points below = -10

SLG: .396                     if >= 10 points above = +10
                                       if >= 10 points below = -10

BB%: 8.78%                if >= 5 points above = +10
                                       if >= 5 points below = -10

K%: 19.67%                 if >= 5 points above = -10
                                       if >= 5 points below = +10

 

Pitchers

ERA: 3.93               if >= 1 point above = -10
                                      if >= 1 point below = +10


WHIP: 1.354               if >= .33 point above = -10
                                     if >= .33 point below = +10


BB/9: 3.2                      if >= 1 point above = -10
                                      if >= 1 point below = +10


K/9: 6.9                        if >= 2 points above = +10
                                      if >= 2 points below = -10


K/BB: 2.17                  if >= 2 points above = +10
                                     if >= 2 points below = -10

 

(NOTE - These averages will obvoiusly change and I'll base the values off the new value whenever I rank the prospects.)

From this formula (you obviously use one or the other) you will get one solid number. This presents another problem: it is obviously easier to be an average hitter/pitcher in a hitter/pitcher-friendly league, as the case may be. So here's the ranking of the five leagues in order of their strengths, and bonuses that will be awarded in certain cases:

 

Hitter-Friendly Leagues (based on OPS)

  1. International League (AAA)
  2. Eastern League (AA)
  3. Midwest League (A)
  4. Florida St. League (A+)
  5. GCL (R)
If average/below average in 3/5 categories: 
  1. - 5 points
  2. - 3 points
  3. 0
  4. + 3 points
  5. + 5 points
If above average in 3/5 categories:
  1. 0
  2. +2
  3. +5
  4. +8
  5. +10
Pitcher-Friendly Leagues (based on FIP)
  1. GCL (R)
  2. Florida St. (A+)
    2. (tie) Midwest (A)
    4. Eastern (AA)
    5. International (AAA)
If average/below average in 3/5 categories:
  1. -5
  2. -3
  3. -3
  4. +3
  5. +5
If above average in 3/5 categories:
  1. 0
  2. +2
  3. +2
  4. +8
  5. +10

What do you guys think? How accurately would this rank statistical performance, and what improvements could be made?