Twins win, Blackburn great - optimism abounds?
by Jon Marthaler on Aug 31, 2009 11:19 PM EDT
in Game Recaps
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PrintThe Minnesota Twins have just 14 games left in the Metrodome. Two of those 14 are against Chicago.
After yet another Twins win over the White Sox at the Dome, though, the visitors could be forgiven if they attempted to detonate the stadium ahead of its time. Chicago lost for the 15th time in its last 17 games in Minneapolis, 4-1 on Monday night - and with two more upcoming in this series, that's the first reason the Twins have to be optimistic.
Nick Blackburn looked great for the first time, well, in recent memory. Blackburn gave up just one solitary run and scattered six hits over seven innings, and tied a career high with seven strikeouts in picking up his first win since the All-Star break. If Minnesota is to contend in September, they'll need solid starts from someone other than Scott Baker or Carl Pavano, and for the first time in over a month, Blackburn looked like he could be that guy. That's the team's second reason to be optimistic.
A third cause for optimism: the continued presence of Joe Mauer. The Twins catcher hit a solo home run in the third, then singled, stole second, and scored on a Michael Cuddyer single in the eighth. He does it by hitting the ball into the upper deck, and he does it by getting on base and dashing around like a man half his size. He's the best.
Jason Kubel also homered, a towering shot to center that drove home two runs, and that's all the Twins pitching staff needed. It went down just like the manager draws it up: timely hitting, a great start from Blackburn, a scoreless eighth from Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier, and a perfect ninth (and two strikeouts) from Joe Nathan. That execution would make even the most cynical among us into optimists, at least briefly.
The win puts Minnesota above .500 for the first time since July 31, and with Detroit's loss on Monday, the Twins move just three and a half games back in the AL Central. When the home team was six games back, that was one thing, but at three and a half back - with seven games against the Tigers remaining - anything, anything could happen.
In just a few hours, the calendar will flip over to September. With fewer than three dozen games left, we're feeling - yes - optimistic. Minnesota's right in this thing.
Three Stars (for the reasons mentioned above):
3. Jason Kubel
2. Nick Blackburn
1. Joe Mauer
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harden
would have been icing on the cake today but oh well. we’ll have to bank on one of liriano, perkins or bonser making a difference down the stretch.
Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?
by caseintheface on Aug 31, 2009 11:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
ventured over to South Side Sox tonight
even they don’t deny the talent that is Joe Mauer (though I did read, several times, comments along the line of “won’t the Twins be sad when he’s a Yankee in 2011” and “let’s laugh at him when he doesn’t win MVP, loser”). What a scary, oddly entertaining place it is over there.
Good win for the Twins, coming up to the Tigers. How fast this division can change!
Looks like the Sox actually got rid of Thome tonight
that’s…weird. Thome goes to the Dodgers. Not a White Sock(?) anymore.
Our World Series competition
picks up a guy who doesn’t play the field, who told them that he’s an emergency 1B only….A DH in a league with no DH. So basically he’s going to PH and LAD likely picks up the rest of his salary.
That’s our competition. That’s what they’re doing to get marginally better. We need a pitcher to start about 6 games for us and we evidently can’t figure out the paperwork needed to claim Brad Penny, or are too scared to trade for Rich Harden.
Brad Penny wanted to go to the NL
That’s why we didn’t put in the claim.
doesn't really matter
as a free agent, he can choose the NL.
as a player claimed on waivers, he goes to who claims him. I’m sure old teammates Redmond and Pavano would have helped him smooth over any hard feelings about MN claiming him.
"Our World Series competition"
will DH Thome in up to 4 games on the road.
"I don't care about feelings." - Lou Piniella
Mauer's home runs
It seems like all of Mauer’s home runs come in the first 3 or 4 innings of a game. I am wondering if any of the stats gurus can find out one of two things: what percentage of his home runs come in the first 4 innings of a game or what percentage of his home runs have come in either his first or second plate appearance. I will be interested to see what the stats reveal, but I am guessing he has hit around 20 of his 26 home runs in the first two plate appearances for him in a game.
I was thinking that the reason for this might be that throughout the game he gets tired from having to squat behind the plate inning after inning. My next thought was this: How good of a hitter could this guy be if he wasn’t a catcher? He’s already unbelievable, but he could theoretically take that to a new level if he played a different position.
Mauer's Homeruns broken down by inning
Innings 1-3= 10 home runs
4-6= 11 home runs
7-9= 5 home runs
It looks like Mauer hits the vast majority of his home runs within the first 3 at-bats of the game.
How does this compare
with the rest of the league?
If I had to guess, most guys hit HRs the 1-6 innings. – Especially left handed batters.
Teams generally throw a LOGY at him after the starter leaves.
Mauer also leads the league in JE HR's
(or maybe 2nd behind Hill, he’s up there though)
What is that? Just Enough Home Run, as in just enough to get over the fence. Seriously. Someone’s keeping track somewhere.
Johnny Damon has that wrapped up.
Hell, most of his HR’s are pop-ups that would be outs in most parks. Lucky for him, he plays at New Yankee Stadium where those carry out to the first row. The first few rows are now nicknamed Damon Porch by the people in NY.
by NYCisTwinsTerritory on Sep 1, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Great game
Great win! I am just amazed that this team has hung in there. More amazed that the Sux and the Tigers have not run away. What an odd year.
I always loved that one.
I'm amazed we didn't get another starter
All we had to do was claim Penny I think and he was ours. Or pull the trigger on Harden. Or something to get another pitcher.
Would LOVE to hear the story about how we got neither of those guys. I’m sure it’ll bring a tear to TwinsNation.
Next two days will be interesting with Manship and Duensing pitching, as we fight for a playoff spot….
Playoffs? You're talkin' playoffs? Playoffs?
Wasn’t too long ago people were declaring 2009 “RIP,” “guaranteeing” that the Twins would not make the playoffs and vowing not to “waste their time” following the Twins this year. We still have to catch the Tigers first but, they obviously haven’t been Twins fans for very long. Welcome to the September Run, folks!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 1, 2009 3:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Plus flip ahead in the schedule
We play DET 7 times in the last few of weeks of the regular season. As long as we stay within a few games of them, our playoff hopes are in our own hands.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 1, 2009 3:53 AM EDT up reply actions
After the KC & CLE loses
Who didn’t think the season was over? I sure did!
(though whoever said they following the twins was a waste of their time deserves a public lashing)
I disagree with Gardy as much as the next guy, but to his credit, this team did not roll over and take a shit on him.
Yeah, that Sunday night poll a while back
showed a lot of people had given up hope, and I think at that point, it was justified. Losing series to the Royals and Indians was just pathetic, but like they do, the Twins are picking it up now toward the end…just making the race a little more exciting.
Let's not get carried away
Even though the Twins have won 10 out of their last 13 (probably as good a run as anyone in our division has had all year), we are still only ONE game over .500. Most teams with the Twins’ record are at least 10 games out at this point of the season and merely going through the motions on a daily basis. I still think we probably barely miss the playoffs or get swept in the first round.
I’ll admit I thought this team was done a few weeks ago when they were losing series against the Indians and Royals at home. Turns out, I was wrong. One thing I need to point out, however, is that this run has coincided with the removal of Francisco Liriano (and Swarzak) from the rotation. This was a move I had been wanting to see happen since the end of May. Also, I had been hoping and asking for Brian Duensing to get a chance as a starter. Some people on this blog expressed skepticism about that move, but Duensing has been a big catalyst in the Twins recent success. We are 3-0 in games he has started and he has an ERA of 2.65 in those games.
And yet we're only 3.5 games back
And YOU wrote this team off a long time ago. If you had your way, the Twins would have just rolled over and died for the rest of the year. So don’t tell us “Let’s not get carried away!” Winning the division is still a big achievement and we have a legitimate shot at it. Plus I find it lame that you’re trying to claim some credit for the Twins run now.
GO TWINS!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 1, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I did write off this team a long time ago
Any rational fan would have, but at no point did I start rooting against the Twins, which you seemed to imply. I am absolutely delighted they are making a run, but you can’t discredit my point about Duensing. The pitching was absolutely the problem with this team earlier this season, and they have made changes, including Duensing which I was asking for, and those changes are THE BIGGEST reason this team is turning their season around.
I still think you are getting your hopes up too high. From reading your post, I think you are my definition of “carried away.” So now I’m going to ask you a question since you seemed to imply you knew the Twins were going to do this all along: How far does this team go? Do we even make the playoffs? My personal opinion is we fall a little short.
That's because you're a loser
You have a losing attitude. I had faith in the Twins the whole time. The Twins aren’t the yankees and haven’t walked away with the division, so you dump on them and all their fans. Why do you still post here? Seasons over according to you, quitter. Get lost!
GO TWINS!!!
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
No, you don't understand It’s a metaphor for A SERIES SWEEP!!!!!!! -natethejinx
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 2, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I totally disagree
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
No, you don't understand It’s a metaphor for A SERIES SWEEP!!!!!!! -natethejinx
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Sep 3, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm optimistic
We had so many holes through much of this year, it was amazing we hung around .500 for so long. Then the inevitable happened: Key guys like Blackburn went into a slump. But with the additions, especially to the bullpen, we’re a much better team than we were in the other five months.
If guys like Blackburn can return to form, we should be able to win most of the remining series. The only playoff team we play the rest of the way is the Tigers. We’re done with New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and Texas. The Tigers also have a weak schedule. But they do have a series against the Rays.
If we win both series against the Tigers, and we otherwise play one game better than them the rest of the way, we win the division. That doesn’t seem so tough anymore.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Not optimistic yet
But I’ll acknowledge they have a chance. It’s all about the pitching right now.
Ahem...
The only playoff team we play the rest of the way is the Tigers.
I certainly hope not!
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I meant, if the playoffs started today
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I know...
Just giving you a hard time.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
The Minnesota Twins have just 14 games left in the Metrodome. Two of those 16 are against Chicago.
I hope we really do have 16 games left at the Metrodome. Or 26, would be okay too.
Math = hard?
Jon = confused. (Fixed my mistake now.)
by Jon Marthaler on Sep 1, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Cautious optimism
It’s been such a roller coaster season that after the sweep of the Royals I was expecting the Twins to lose 5 of the next 6. It’s encouraging as our major hole has had a good couple of weeks. Even in losses the team’s starting pitching has been decent. I’d feel much better if they could’ve gotten another Pavano esque guy to fill the rotation hole.
I really think the Twins chances are going to depend on the arms of Manship and Duensing. I have doubts they’ll be enough but I could see Swarzak like runs from them. The lack of scouting on theses guys, the few guys that have actually seen them pitch might be of benefit and they might each get away with 3 or 4 starts and there’s always the chance that one of them steps it up and proves themselves to be ready for the big leagues.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Manship could surprise
He can drop that curve ball at any count and most players haven’t seen a curve quite like it. I am puzzled by the non-move on 9/1 to bring up any help from AAA. The bullpen is better but they could use another arm in order to keep these 2 on a short leash.
YEah
Yeah, Manship is a more talented callup option than some of the other guys we’ve been dealing in.
At any rate, this is our team now. It’s capable of winning the division because our division is just terrible. It would probably get shellacked in the playoffs, but who knows, anything can happen!
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Kubel
Kubel has been playing great. He’s really turning into that solid DH we’ve been looking for, for a while now. He’s getting on-base .375, he’s on pace to hit in the range of 25 homeruns, and he has generally good at-bats. In fact, his hitting numbers are roughly comparable to Morneau.
I’m not going to say he’s better, because obviously he’s a defensive liability, and doesn’t produce quite the same power, but its close, and Kubel is cheap. The way he’s playing, I really think he’s established himself as relatively reliable over the past 2-3 years. I wonder what the Twins could get for him this offseason. The fact that he’s cheap might make him a good candidate to trade, looking to get young players in return, preferably MLB ready MI or P, but I’d probably settle for picking up a really high quality AA or AAA prospect or two. Plus, that would allow us to go out and look for a bigger RH bat to put in the middle of our lineup, and would create a space for our rotation of outfielders / Mauer / Morneau to share the DH role next year.
trade Kubel?
you really have to be kidding. The last time the Twins traded away their “big” DH man, the fans never forgave the FO until it was discovered he was on roids, namely David Ortiz. It took the Twins a long time to find the DH that fit that mold…it took about 4-6 years before we had a really solid DH candidate in there. Why would we trade away the 3rd best hitter on our club just to make “room” for a bigger bat (who?). At the all-star break, Kubel had numbers better than Nelson Cruz, who went to the HR Derby and played in the all-star game. I still would take Kubel over Cruz, although Cruz is the better fielder, but we are talking DH.
Kubel is quickly becoming one of the greatest DHs in the league, especially with everybody else on roids.
NY – Matsui getting old
BOS – Ortiz roids
BAL – Scott is pretty good
TB – Burrell isnt as hot in the AL
TOR – Ruiz is alright but not a DH
CHW – Thome is getting old, now with Dodgers
DET – Huff is a good hitter
CLE – Hafner is no longer a threat
KC – Butler isnt what he is cracked up to be
MIN – Kubel is top 3 as DH
LA – Rivera/Vlad/Matthews Jr/other – depends on who is DHing
OAK – Giambi was a bust
SEA – Griffey is getting old
TEX – Murphy/Blalock – can be good
The main thing here is that Kubel is a power hitting, get on base, drive in runs, guy who is not part of a platoon. Most of these teams here have a platoon at DH. I would go so far as to say the Kubel is the best DH option out there. We have heard players complain of not being able to hit in the DH spot because they need to play the field in order to take their minds off a bad AB or something. I am going to sit on my conclusion that Kubel is quickly becoming the best DH.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
He should be...
The main thing here is that Kubel is a power hitting, get on base, drive in runs, guy who is not part of a platoon.
Kubel isn’t really part of a platoon, but he certainly should be:
vs. RHP: .327/.402/.607, 20 HR
vs. LHP: .235/.288/.333, 2 HR
Gardy has been reducing his at-bats against lefties, giving him his days off when there’s a lefty pitching, but he has a horrific platoon split – against righties he’s Justin Morneau, and against lefties he’s Alexi Casilla.
As for trading him, I’m not as dead-set against it, but I’d expect something pretty darned good – he’s a quality hitter who’s cheap and relatively young.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
He should be a part of a platoon, except against Chisox pitching:
I don’t have time to look up the stats right now, but I have him on my fantasy team, also. so I realized this this week. I usually platoon him, but his numbers against the Chisox lefties are crazy out of line with his numbers against other lefties. I like it. :)
What are we, the Pirates?!!?
The notion of trading a guy who looks to be entering the prime of his career and is providing us with much needed offensive punch is one the strangest ideas I’ve ever heard.
by Sheldon on Sep 1, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
Kubel is this team’s best DH since Molitor. As soon as you develop a guy, you trade him? Makes no sense.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
It'd be one thing
It seems like DH should be the easiest position to fill as you need an all bat no defense guy but the Twins haven’t been able to do that. Now they have a guy who not only fills that role nicely he also is ok defensively. He can play the corners if he has to and not kill the team.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
but it hasnt
all of the Twins “DHs” in the past have complained that they have not been able to produce because they go back and sit on the bench after a bad at bat, while the others can run out and play some D and sort of forget about a bad at bat. Sitting on the bench, you have an opportunity to beat yourself up mentally and think of every way you could have performed better. Then, when they go back up to bat, they are pressing so hard to get a hit that they cannot hit.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett
Please see the longer FanPost I just wrote
I made the discussion more general, but I’m basically just trying to focus on this Kubel discussion. He’s great, but he might be more valuable to someone else than he is to us. If we could get a top infielder or pitcher, it would be worth it.
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